- The report introduces the method for calculating the dividend points of stock indices, which is crucial for accurately estimating the premium and discount levels of stock index futures contracts. The calculation involves several key indicators such as component stock weights, dividend amounts, total market value of component stocks, and index closing prices[12][41][46] - The component stock weights are obtained from the daily closing weights disclosed by the China Securities Index Company, ensuring the accuracy of daily stock weights[48] - The dividend amount is estimated based on the historical distribution of net profits. For companies with stable profit distribution, historical profit distribution patterns are used for prediction; for companies with unstable profit distribution, the previous year's profit is used as the forecast value[49][52] - The dividend payout ratio is predicted using historical data averages. If a company has paid dividends in the past, the historical payout ratio is used as the estimate for the current year[53][55] - The ex-dividend date is predicted based on the stability of the interval days between the announcement of the dividend plan and the ex-dividend date in the past three years. If the interval days are stable, the average interval days are used for linear extrapolation; otherwise, historical ex-dividend dates are used for estimation[57][58] - The accuracy of the dividend point estimation model is analyzed by comparing the predicted dividend points with the actual dividend points at different time points. The model shows high accuracy for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index and the CSI 300 Index, with errors within 5 points, while the prediction error for the CSI 500 Index is slightly larger, but still within 10 points[59][63] - The report tracks the premium and discount levels of stock index futures contracts, including the daily basis, the trend of the main contract's premium and discount, the term structure of different contracts' basis, and the current basis level in historical percentiles[12][13][28] - The main contracts of IH, IF, IC, and IM show varying levels of annualized discount rates, with IH at 0.76%, IF at 9.98%, IC at 39.34%, and IM at 43.79%[4][13] - The historical percentile levels of the main contracts' basis indicate that the IH main contract is around the 36th percentile, the IF main contract is at the 23rd percentile, the IC main contract is at the 8th percentile, and the IM main contract is at the 6th percentile[28][29][38] Model Testing Results - IH main contract, annualized discount rate: 0.76%[4] - IF main contract, annualized discount rate: 9.98%[4] - IC main contract, annualized discount rate: 39.34%[4] - IM main contract, annualized discount rate: 43.79%[4]

Core Viewpoint - Guochuang Innovation (03931) is rated "outperform" by Guoxin Securities, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 expected to grow significantly, indicating strong future performance [1] Financial Performance - The company expects net profits of 1.376 billion, 2.118 billion, and 3.028 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 133%, 54%, and 43% [1] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 466 million yuan, up 87% year-on-year, with total revenue of 16.419 billion yuan, a 32% increase [1] - The gross margin was 17.53%, an increase of 1.91 percentage points, while the net margin was 4.59%, up 1.24 percentage points year-on-year [1] Battery Business - In the first half of 2025, the company's battery business generated revenue of 10.662 billion yuan, a 10% increase year-on-year, with a battery shipment volume of 21.8 GWh, up 23% [2] - The company ranked fourth globally and third domestically in battery shipments, achieving a record market share of 8.25% in July 2025 for passenger vehicles [2] - The company has established deep collaborations with major automotive manufacturers, enhancing product delivery diversity [2] Energy Storage Business - The energy storage system and other businesses generated revenue of 5.757 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 110% year-on-year increase, with battery cell shipments entering the global top four [3] - The company has successfully delivered large quantities of its 314Ah battery cells and is set to mass-produce a new generation 600Ah+ battery cell with a density exceeding 440Wh/L by Q4 2025 [3] - The company is expanding globally, with a production base in Thailand and a new facility in Europe under construction, enhancing international delivery capabilities [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guoxin Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for Zhongchuang Innovation航 (03931), projecting significant growth in net profit and earnings per share (EPS) from 2025 to 2027 [1] Financial Performance - The company expects net profit for 2025-2027 to be CNY 1.376 billion, CNY 2.118 billion, and CNY 3.028 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 133%, 54%, and 43% respectively [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a net profit of CNY 466 million, up 87% year-on-year, with revenue of CNY 16.419 billion, a 32% increase [1] - The gross margin was 17.53%, an increase of 1.91 percentage points, while the net margin was 4.59%, up 1.24 percentage points [1] Power Battery Business - In the first half of 2025, the power battery segment generated revenue of CNY 10.662 billion, a 10% increase, with a shipment volume of 21.8 GWh, up 23% [2] - The company ranked fourth globally and third domestically in power battery shipments, achieving a record market share of 8.25% in July 2025 [2] - The commercial vehicle segment saw over 310% year-on-year growth in domestic new energy commercial vehicle battery installations, entering the top three in monthly rankings [2] Energy Storage Business - The energy storage systems and other businesses generated revenue of CNY 5.757 billion in the first half of 2025, a 110% increase, with battery cell shipments entering the global top four [3] - The company has successfully delivered large quantities of its 314Ah battery cells and is set to mass-produce a new generation 600Ah+ energy storage cell with a density of over 440 Wh/L by Q4 2025 [3] - The company is expanding globally, with a production base in Thailand and a new facility in Europe under construction, enhancing its service capabilities and international delivery efficiency [3]

Group 1: Company Strategy and Financial Outlook - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for Alibaba Group (09988), emphasizing its focus on AI and cloud as core technology platforms and the integration of shopping and lifestyle services as significant historical strategic opportunities [1] - The company expects revenues for fiscal years 2026-2028 to be 1,064.3 billion, 1,181.7 billion, and 1,286.6 billion respectively, with adjusted net profits of 126.6 billion, 167.0 billion, and 193.8 billion, reflecting a slight downward adjustment for fiscal year 2026 due to higher investment levels [1] Group 2: E-commerce Business - The e-commerce sector is prioritizing GMV growth amidst a competitive environment, with a shift from low-price strategies to supporting quality brands and expanding external traffic [2] - The company is expected to maintain a year-on-year increase in monetization rates, achieving approximately 10% growth in CMR due to product and service fees [2] - Profit margins are under pressure due to ongoing competition, necessitating subsidies for merchants and users to prioritize GMV growth, which may lead to continued margin declines [2] Group 3: Instant Retail - The instant retail market is projected to exceed 3 trillion by 2030, representing over 16% of the overall e-commerce market, necessitating Alibaba's proactive engagement to meet comprehensive consumer shopping needs [3] - Short-term investments in instant retail may result in over 70 billion losses for Alibaba in fiscal year 2026, but long-term prospects indicate potential contributions exceeding 1 trillion in GMV [3] - The focus will be on enhancing synergies between instant retail and e-commerce, as well as optimizing user experience across various metrics [3] Group 4: Cloud Business - The global cloud market is expected to reach approximately 820 billion in 2024, with China's public cloud accounting for about 5.6%, driven by rapid advancements in AI and large models [4] - Alibaba Cloud, as a pioneer in domestic cloud services, holds about one-third of the market share and is experiencing accelerating revenue growth, benefiting from increasing demand for cloud services [4] - The company is actively promoting AI integration across its core products, enhancing its competitive edge in the evolving cloud landscape [4]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for Alibaba Group (09988), emphasizing the company's focus on AI and cloud technology as well as the integration of shopping and lifestyle services as key strategic opportunities [1] E-commerce Business - The current e-commerce environment remains competitive, with a shift towards GMV growth as the priority under CEO Wu Yongming, moving away from low-price strategies [2] - The company aims to enhance its take rate through product and technology service fees, expecting a 10% growth in CMR [2] - Due to ongoing competition, profit margins have been declining, and the company may need to continue subsidizing merchants and users to prioritize GMV growth, potentially leading to further margin declines [2] Instant Retail - The instant retail market is projected to exceed 3 trillion by 2030, representing over 16% of the overall e-commerce market, necessitating Alibaba's proactive engagement [3] - Short-term investments in instant retail may lead to over 70 billion losses in FY26, but long-term prospects include contributing over 1 trillion GMV [3] - The focus will be on enhancing synergies between instant retail and e-commerce, as well as optimizing user experience in terms of user structure, order structure, and fulfillment efficiency [3] Cloud Business - The global cloud market is expected to reach approximately 820 billion in 2024, with China's public cloud accounting for about 5.6% [4] - The demand for cloud services is increasing, driven by AI and large models, with major players like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google ramping up capital expenditures [4] - Alibaba Cloud, as a pioneer in the domestic market, holds about one-third of the market share and is experiencing accelerating revenue growth, benefiting from the increasing demand for AI-enhanced products [4]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for Kuaishou-W (01024), projecting adjusted profits of 20.2 billion, 23.8 billion, and 28.1 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with a CAGR of 15% and corresponding PE ratios of 14x, 12x, and 10x [1] Group 1: Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - Kuaishou's first special dividend of HKD 0.46 per share totals HKD 2 billion, with a current shareholder return rate of approximately 2% [1] - As of June 2025, Kuaishou has total available funds of 101.9 billion CNY, laying a foundation for future AI business development and shareholder returns [1] - Net cash, excluding borrowings, amounts to 89.7 billion CNY [1] Group 2: Business Model and Advertising Revenue - Kuaishou's advertising business accounts for over half of its revenue, with a focus on building a content ecosystem and user community [1] - The company has significant growth potential in its advertising monetization capabilities, with a projected revenue of 0.23 CNY per hour for 2024 [2] - Kuaishou's operational capabilities have improved following key management changes and the integration of its commercial and e-commerce divisions [1][2] Group 3: AI and Content Creation - Kuaishou is positioned in the top tier of global AIGC (AI-Generated Content) companies, with a rapidly growing revenue stream [2] - The company has over 45 million creators globally for its AI product, Kling AI, which has generated over 2 billion videos and 400 million images [2] - Kling AI's annual revenue is expected to exceed 125 million USD, with over 70% of its income coming from overseas [2] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Kuaishou is the second-largest short video platform in China, leveraging its C-end ecosystem advantages while also accumulating B-end business in short dramas and advertising [3] - The global AI video creation market has surpassed 100 million creators, with a long-term market size projected to reach hundreds of billions [4] - Kuaishou's AI video product, Kling AI, is noted for its excellent performance in generating realistic videos and is well-positioned in the commercial landscape [4]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for Kuaishou-W (01024), projecting adjusted profits of 20.2 billion, 23.8 billion, and 28.1 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with a CAGR of 15% and corresponding PE ratios of 14x, 12x, and 10x [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Kuaishou's first special dividend of HKD 0.46 per share totals HKD 2 billion, with a current shareholder return rate of around 2% [1] - By June 2025, Kuaishou's total available funds will reach 101.9 billion CNY, with net cash of 89.7 billion CNY after excluding borrowings [1] Group 2: Advertising Business - Kuaishou's advertising business accounts for over half of its revenue, with significant growth potential in ad monetization, currently at 0.23 CNY per hour for 2024 [2] - The company has improved its operational capabilities through governance changes and integration of its commercial and e-commerce departments [2] Group 3: AI and Technology - The OneRec recommendation algorithm upgrade has led to user engagement growth, while AI enhances advertising efficiency through more precise recommendations [3] - Kuaishou is positioned in the top tier of global AIGC companies, with a rapidly increasing revenue stream from its AI product, KuaLing, projected to exceed 125 million USD annually [4] Group 4: Market Position and Competition - KuaLing AI has over 45 million creators globally and has generated over 2 billion videos and 400 million images, establishing itself as a one-stop AI productivity engine [4] - Kuaishou's market share in AI video usage reached 30% as of May 2025, with a strong presence in both consumer and business sectors [4][5]

Transaction Overview - Transaction Method: Issuance of shares to purchase assets [1] - Target Asset: 96.08% stake in Wanhua Securities [1] - Transaction Price: 5.192 billion yuan [1] - Issuance Price: 8.25 yuan per share (adjusted for dividends) [1] - Number of Shares Issued: 629 million shares [1] Implementation Progress - Asset Transfer: Completed on August 26, 2025, with the company holding 96.08% of Wanhua Securities [1] - Capital Verification: New registered capital of 629 million yuan has been verified [1] - Share Registration: Application for new share registration accepted by Shenzhen Branch of China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation [1] - Listing Date: Scheduled for September 10, 2025 [1] Changes in Shareholding Structure - Total Share Capital Post-Issuance: 10.242 billion shares (an increase of 629 million shares) [1] - Change in Major Shareholder's Holding: Deep Investment Control's stake diluted from 33.53% to 31.47% [1] - Control: No change in controlling shareholder or actual controller, remaining as Deep Investment Control and Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [1] Impact on the Company - Business Synergy: As both are securities companies, this acquisition enhances regional layout and capitalizes on Hainan Free Trade Port policy advantages [1] - Financial Performance: Growth in assets, revenue, and net profit, with a decrease in asset-liability ratio [1] - Earnings Per Share: Short-term decline in earnings per share due to share dilution [1] Lock-up Arrangement - Lock-up Period: New shares cannot be transferred within 12 months from the end of the issuance [1] - Share Nature: All shares are subject to limited transferability [1]

Core Points - The controlling shareholder of Guosen Securities, Shenzhen Investment Holdings Co., Ltd., saw its shareholding diluted from 33.53% to 31.47% [1] - China Resources Shen Guo Investment Trust Co., Ltd., a shareholder holding more than 5%, experienced a reduction in its stake from 22.23% to 20.87% [1] - Yunnan Hehe (Group) Co., Ltd., another major shareholder, had its shareholding diluted from 16.77% to 15.74% [1] - The changes in shareholding percentages are attributed to Guosen Securities issuing shares to acquire assets [1]

公司控股股东深圳市投资控股有限公司（以下简称"深投控"）及其他持股 5%以上股份的股东华润深国投信托有限公司（以下简称"华润信托"）、云南 合和（集团）股份有限公司（以下简称"云南合和"）不是本次发行的认购对象， 本次发行导致其持股比例被动稀释，具体情况如下： 1、控股股东深投控的股份变动情况 关于持股 5%以上股东持股比例变动超过 1%的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、基本情况 根据中国证券监督管理委员会《关于同意国信证券股份有限公司发行股份购 买资产注册、核准万和证券股份有限公司变更主要股东及实际控制人的批复》（证 监许可〔2025〕1824号），国信证券股份有限公司（以下简称"公司""国信 证券"）通过发行A股股份的方式向深圳市资本运营集团有限公司、深圳市鲲鹏 股权投资有限公司、深业集团有限公司、深圳市创新投资集团有限公司、深圳远 致富海十号投资企业（有限合伙）、成都交子金融控股集团有限公司、海口市金 融控股集团有限公司（以下简称"交易对方"）购买其合计持有的万和证券股份 有限公司96.08%股份，公司向交易对方发行股份的数量合 ...