24 年公司To C 转型持续深化，欧盟、北美业务占比快速提升，持续加码全球布局。根据公告数据披 露，24年以来公司To C 业务快速成长，全年实现营收50.06 亿元（YoY+29%），业务占比由2023 年的 33.82%提升至37.65%，实现毛利率28.99%，同比+0.09pct；而Model A+Model B 营收82.90 亿元 （YoY+9%），毛利率14.23%，同比-3.01pct。具体分产品看，除草剂营收97.32 亿元（YoY+16%），毛 利率17.76%，同比-0.70pct；杀虫剂营收21.05 亿元（YoY+36%），毛利率26.91%，同比-5.97pct；杀菌 剂营收13.13亿元（YoY-4%），毛利率22.05%，同比-0.14pct；杀虫、杀菌产品收入占比稳步提升至 25.71%。此外，重点拓展区域欧盟、北美业务营收占比由2023 年的5.69%上升到9.75%；同时生物制剂 业务快速拓展，全球生物制品销售额首年营收即达成约1000 万美金目标。在全球营销网络构建以及登 记布局方面，公司持续加码，24 年新获得登记1000 余项，截止2024 年12 月31 日公司 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 13.296 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.77%, but a decline in net profit attributable to shareholders by 41.63% to 450 million yuan [1] - The agricultural protection industry is nearing a bottom, with product prices continuing to decline but at a slower rate than in 2023 [2] - The company is expanding its global marketing network, with a significant increase in revenue from its To C business model [3] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.511 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.38%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14.44% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.686 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.26% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 23.49% [1] - The gross profit margins for herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides decreased in 2024 due to falling product prices, with respective declines of 0.7 percentage points, 6.0 percentage points, and 0.1 percentage points [2] Cost and Expenses - Sales expenses increased by 51.1% to 654 million yuan in 2024, primarily due to higher overseas employee salaries and increased consulting, travel, advertising, and export credit insurance costs [2] - Financial expenses rose significantly due to increased foreign exchange losses, impacting the company's overall performance [2] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 19.3% year-on-year, but improved by approximately 1.1 percentage points compared to Q4 2024 [2] Market Expansion - The company has established six manufacturing bases and over 110 subsidiaries globally, operating in more than 100 countries [3] - By the end of 2024, the company held over 7,700 pesticide registration certificates, with 1,000 new registrations obtained during the year [3] - Revenue from the company's To C business model reached 5.01 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 28.9%, with its revenue share rising by 3.8 percentage points to 37.65% [3] Profit Forecast - Due to the decline in agricultural product prices and increased expenses, the company's 2024 performance was below previous expectations [4] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upwards, with expected net profits of 979 million yuan, 1.228 billion yuan, and 1.520 billion yuan respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [7] Core Views - Oil prices are experiencing fluctuations due to tariff negotiations, OPEC+ production changes, and Middle East tensions. The report emphasizes a focus on leading companies with strong fundamentals and low correlation to oil prices, suggesting bottom-fishing strategies. There is a recommendation to pay attention to domestic demand and opportunities in new material domestic substitution, particularly in the agricultural chemical sector during the spring farming season [14][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views - The report highlights the importance of monitoring oil prices and related inventory levels, with U.S. crude oil commercial inventory at 443.1 million barrels, a weekly increase of 20 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 4.5 million barrels to 229.5 million barrels, while distillate inventory decreased by 2.4 million barrels to 106.9 million barrels [3][16]. 2. Price Changes - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were for polymer MDI (up 6.0%), DEG (up 5.7%), and diethanolamine (up 5.7%). The largest decreases were for silicone oil (down 12.9%), DMC (down 11.1%), and natural gas (down 9.5%). Monthly price increases were led by trichloroethylene (up 16.3%), epoxy chloropropane (up 9.2%), and diethanolamine (up 7.7%) [10][17]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Wanhua Chemical: Core product MDI shows recent profit improvement, with upcoming petrochemical and new material projects [14]. - Huangma Technology: A leading special polyether company that has entered a growth phase [14]. - Runfeng Co., Ltd.: A rare company with global formulation registration and sales channels [14]. - Guoguang Co., Ltd.: A leading domestic differentiated formulation company in the plant growth regulator sector [14]. - Hualu Hengsheng: Core product prices are recovering alongside falling coal prices, leading to continuous improvement in price differentials [15].

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural chemical industry is experiencing a recovery in the first quarter of 2024, with most companies reporting improved performance after a period of destocking in 2023 [1][5][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - As of April 28, 29 agricultural chemical companies have disclosed their Q1 reports, with 27 companies reporting profits and 16 showing year-on-year profit growth [1]. - Companies such as Lianhua Technology, Hunan Haili, and Lier Chemical reported net profit increases exceeding 100% year-on-year [2][3]. - Lianhua Technology's Q1 net profit grew over tenfold to 4971.56 million yuan, with a revenue of 15.1 billion yuan, marking a 3.02% increase [2]. - Hunan Haili achieved a revenue of 4.31 billion yuan, up 25.44%, and a net profit of 5661.02 million yuan, up 483.78% [3]. - Lier Chemical reported total revenue of 20.86 billion yuan, a 49.99% increase, and a net profit of 1.53 billion yuan, up 219.9% [3]. - Companies like Xianda Co. and Limin Co. turned losses into profits in Q1 due to increased sales and prices [4]. Group 2: Market Trends - The agricultural chemical market is entering its traditional peak season, with significant destocking observed since the beginning of the year [5][6]. - The market is showing signs of recovery, with an increase in terminal demand and replenishment in both domestic and foreign markets [6]. - The raw material price index for agricultural chemicals rose to 73.11 points, reflecting a 0.29% increase from the previous month [6]. - Industry experts express optimism for 2025, anticipating a stable recovery in the agricultural chemical sector [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 13.296 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.77%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 41.63% to 450 million yuan [5] - The agricultural protection industry is at a low point, with exchange rate losses impacting the performance in 2024 and Q1 2025 [6] - The company has seen a significant increase in its To C business revenue, which reached 5.01 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 28.9% [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 35.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.38%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14.44% [5] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 26.86 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.26% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 23.49% [5] Industry Insights - The overall prices of agricultural protection products continue to decline, but the rate of decline in 2024 is less than in 2023, indicating that the industry has likely bottomed out [6] - The company has expanded its global marketing network, with over 110 subsidiaries and operations in more than 100 countries [7] Profitability and Forecast - The report adjusts the profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 979 million yuan, 1.228 billion yuan, and 1.520 billion yuan respectively [8] - The company’s gross margin is projected to decline to 18.7% in 2025 but is expected to improve in subsequent years [12]

上 市 公 司 基础化工 2025 年 04 月 28 日 润丰股份 (301035) —— 25Q1 业绩改善显著，to C 业务占比持续提升，中 长期价值值得期待 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025Q1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 13,296 | 2,686 | 14,579 | 15,860 | 18,093 | | 同比增长率（%） | 15.8 | -0.3 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 14.1 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 450 | 257 | 929 | 1,116 | 1,419 | | 同比增长率（%） | -41.6 | 68.0 | 106.5 | 20.0 | 27.2 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 1.61 | 0.91 | 3.31 | 3.97 | 5.06 | | 毛利率（%） | 19.8 | 19.3 | 20.2 | 20.6 | 21.0 | | RO ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for specific companies in the chemical industry, particularly in the compound fertilizer and pesticide sectors, while recommending "Hold" for others [17]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing an optimization in supply and demand dynamics, leading to a recovery in the compound fertilizer, metal chromium, and niche pesticide markets. The report highlights investment opportunities in undervalued high-growth companies [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the positive performance of listed companies in Q1 2025, particularly in the compound fertilizer sector, and suggests focusing on companies like Xin Yang Feng, Stanley, and Yun Tu Holdings for investment opportunities [3][4]. - The report notes that metal chromium prices have surged to 75,000 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 7,500 CNY/ton, driven by rising demand from the stainless steel sector and new military spending in Europe [3][4]. - The agricultural chemical market is entering its traditional peak season, with stable trading volumes for seasonal crop pesticides. Specific products like Acetochlor and Avermectin are seeing price increases, with recommendations for companies like Xian Da and Li Min [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic conditions in the chemical sector indicate a stabilization in oil prices due to geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production increases, while coal prices are expected to decline in the medium term [4][6]. - The chemical industry PPI data shows a gradual recovery from negative values, with March 2025 PPI at -2.8% year-on-year, indicating a potential bottoming out of the cycle [6][8]. Fertilizer and Pesticide Sector - The report highlights that the domestic urea price is currently at 1,800 CNY/ton, with a slight week-on-week decline of 0.6%. The compound fertilizer sector is experiencing a decrease in operating rates, leading to increased inventory levels [10]. - The pesticide market is witnessing a seasonal peak, with stable trading volumes and price adjustments in various pesticide products, including a price increase for Pyrazole [10][19]. Chemical Products Pricing and Inventory Changes - The report provides detailed pricing data for various chemical products, indicating fluctuations in prices for PTA, MEG, and PVC, with specific attention to the impact of raw material costs and market demand [10][11][12]. - The report notes that the market for fluorinated chemicals is facing supply constraints due to mining restrictions, while the demand remains weak, leading to price adjustments [12][19]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment based on their growth potential and market positioning, including Yangnong Chemical, Runfeng Co., and Yun Tianhua in the fertilizer and pesticide sectors [17][18]. - Companies in the tire and fluorochemical sectors are also highlighted for their potential benefits from recovering domestic demand and cost reductions [3][17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 13.3 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 41.6% to 450 million yuan [2][7]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.69 billion yuan, which is a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year and a significant decrease of 23.5% quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 68.0% year-on-year and 136.6% quarter-on-quarter to 260 million yuan [2][7]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.1 yuan per 10 shares, which amounts to a total of 290 million yuan, accounting for 64.2% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 13.3 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 19.8%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 4.0%, down 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [12]. - The company experienced a significant increase in financial expenses, up 1930.4% year-on-year, primarily due to substantial foreign exchange losses amounting to 550 million yuan in 2024 [12]. Market and Industry Analysis - The global pesticide market is entering a mature phase, but it still experiences significant cyclical fluctuations. The demand for agricultural chemicals, including pesticides, is expected to grow steadily due to the continuous increase in global population [12]. - The company is a leader in the domestic pesticide formulation industry, with a strong global presence, including over 110 subsidiaries and operations in more than 100 countries [12]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has established a five-year strategic plan focusing on increasing the proportion of TOC business, expanding operations in North America and the EU, enhancing the share of insecticides and fungicides, and strengthening the development of biopesticides [12]. - The revenue contribution from the Mode C business model increased from 33.82% to 37.65% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in market penetration [12]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.02 billion yuan, 1.36 billion yuan, and 1.62 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [12].

Core Viewpoint - Runfeng Co., Ltd. has postponed several fundraising projects initially planned for investment, citing complex and changing market conditions in the agricultural chemical industry as the primary reason for these delays [2][4][5]. Group 1: Project Delays - Runfeng Co., Ltd. announced the postponement of multiple fundraising projects, including the "9000 tons of Clomazone project," "38800 tons of herbicide project," "plant protection product R&D center project," and "25000 tons of glyphosate continuous technology transformation project" [1][3]. - Since mid-2022, Runfeng Co. has repeatedly adjusted the timelines for several fundraising projects, with some projects undergoing three adjustments over four years [1][2]. - The "25000 tons of glyphosate continuous technology transformation project" has been postponed from May 2024 to May 2026, while the "herbicide project" has also seen its timeline extended from July 2025 to July 2026 [3][5]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The agricultural chemical industry, where Runfeng operates, is currently at a cyclical low, characterized by oversupply, which has led to the postponement of investment projects [2][6]. - The company noted that the prices of most crop protection raw materials are at historical lows, and the market is expected to remain oversupplied due to increased production capacity in China and India [6]. - Runfeng Co. anticipates that the market will transition from "de-stocking" to "de-capacity" by 2025, leading to intensified competition and potential exits of non-competitive firms from the market [6]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Runfeng Co. has indicated that the changes in fundraising project allocations are a response to evolving market demands and product pricing, reflecting a strategic adjustment to its business planning [2][5]. - Despite the delays, the company maintains that the postponed projects still align with its long-term strategic planning and remain necessary and feasible for future investment [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035), has reported its performance in line with expectations, showing a positive outlook for growth and maintaining a "Buy" rating from Guojin Securities [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 13.296 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.77% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 450 million yuan, a decrease of 41.63% year-on-year - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.686 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.26% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 67.98% to 257 million yuan [2] Operational Analysis - Revenue breakdown by product shows herbicides generated 9.732 billion yuan (73.19% of total revenue) with a gross margin of 17.76%, insecticides contributed 2.105 billion yuan (15.83%) with a gross margin of 26.91%, and fungicides accounted for 1.313 billion yuan (9.88%) with a gross margin of 22.05% - The sales model indicates that TOA and TOB business segments accounted for 62.35% of revenue with a gross margin of 14.23%, while TOC business contributed 37.65% of revenue with a gross margin of 28.99% - The company is expected to see continued improvement in operations in 2025, despite the crop protection industry being at a cyclical low with significant oversupply in domestic and Indian markets - The market is anticipated to shift from "de-stocking" to "capacity reduction" in 2025, leading to intensified competition - Trade protectionism and various market factors are expected to increase operational uncertainties, but the overall operating gross margin is projected to improve as the company expands its TOC business and enhances its global operational capabilities [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 1.004 billion yuan, 1.215 billion yuan, and 1.491 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.575 yuan, 4.326 yuan, and 5.309 yuan - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 16.78, 13.87, and 11.30 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, maintaining a "Buy" rating [4] Analyst Ratings - In the last 90 days, five institutions have provided ratings for the stock, all of which are "Buy" ratings [7]