文 李立 吴清 2025年，中国互联网商业舞台的中心，被一场前所未有、代价高昂的战役——"即时零售"大战牢 牢占据。 以阿里巴巴、美团、京东为代表的三大巨头，从年初的外卖补贴燃起战火，迅速蔓延至覆盖餐饮、生 鲜、商超、数码乃至美妆服饰的全品类展开近场零售争夺。 这场战争规模之大、卷入之深，几乎重新定义了电商与本地生活的边界，也向市场抛出了一系列尖锐问 题：天量投入换来了什么？这是一个真实可持续的新大陆，还是资本催生的海市蜃楼？血流不止的战 局，2026年又将走向何方？ 账单：战损严重 当三大巨头相继交出2025年第三季度（自然年Q3）的财务成绩单时，市场预期被冰冷的数字证实：这 是一场代价惨烈的消耗战，目前看"没有赢家"。 阿里巴巴以利润换规模，生态协同初显效。阿里2026财年第二季度（对应自然年2025年Q3）营收 2477.95亿元，同比增长5%，但净利润同比下滑53%，经营利润更是同比暴跌85%。核心原因直指对"淘 宝闪购"（即时零售业务）的巨额投入。该季度阿里销售和市场费用高达665亿元，同比激增104.8%。 高投入带来了高增长：即时零售收入达229亿元，同比暴涨60%；淘宝闪购日订单峰值在8月曾达 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent controversy surrounding "malicious returns" in online shopping highlights the ongoing conflict between consumer rights and merchant protections, indicating a need for improved e-commerce platform regulations [1][2][3] Group 1: High Return Rates - Merchants are facing high return rates, with some clothing items experiencing return rates as high as 80-90% due to policies like "seven-day no-reason returns" and "shipping insurance" [3][4] - A merchant reported receiving a returned down jacket that had been worn and damaged, sparking significant public outrage [2][3] - The introduction of "shipping insurance" has led to an increase in return rates, as it lowers the barriers for consumers to return items [3][4] Group 2: Merchant Responses - To combat high return rates, some merchants have implemented measures such as oversized tags and locks on clothing to deter "try-and-return" behavior [5][6] - Statistics show that the use of oversized tags has reduced the rate of malicious returns from 42% to 18% [6] - Merchants are advised to document the return process and communicate clearly with customers to mitigate disputes [7] Group 3: E-commerce Platform Regulations - E-commerce platforms are being urged to refine their return policies to balance the interests of consumers and merchants, as current rules may favor consumers excessively [8] - Alibaba's 1688 platform announced plans to eliminate "refund only" options, shifting the burden of proof for product quality disputes to the platform based on seller credibility [8] - The current environment has led to a perception that many merchants are unreliable, while some consumers exploit return policies for personal gain [8]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese assets experienced a strong start in 2026, with significant gains in various indices and stocks, indicating a continuation of the structural bull market from 2025 and a clear investment theme for the year ahead [1][2]. Group 1: Performance of Chinese Assets - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index surged nearly 4%, while leveraged ETFs for Chinese stocks saw increases of over 10% and 8% respectively [2]. - Major Chinese stocks performed well, with Baidu Group rising over 12%, and other notable gains from companies like WanGuo Data and JinkoSolar, which increased by over 8% and 7% respectively [2]. - The Hong Kong market also showed strong performance, with the Hang Seng Index up 2.76% and the Hang Seng Technology Index up 4% [2]. Group 2: Currency Movements - The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate broke above 6.97, reaching a high of 6.9662, marking the strongest level since May 2023 [3]. - Factors contributing to the RMB appreciation include a strong Chinese stock market, increased demand for currency conversion from export companies, and a weakening US dollar [4]. Group 3: Global Market Trends - Global markets continued their strong performance from 2025, with Asian markets achieving their best opening since 2012, led by gains in AI and semiconductor stocks [5]. - Major US tech stocks also saw gains, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising over 4% and ASML ADR increasing by over 8% [6]. - Investor sentiment remains optimistic, with significant net inflows into global equity funds, totaling $26.54 billion in the last week of 2025 [6].

Core Viewpoint - Chinese concept stocks experienced a collective rise, with significant gains across various companies listed on the Nasdaq [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 3.55% [1] - Baidu saw a notable rise of 11.35% [1] - Futu Holdings rose by 6.84% [1] - Bilibili increased by 6.87% [1] - NetEase gained 6.77% [1] - Tiger Brokers rose by 5.54% [1] - 36Kr increased by 4.85% [1] - Fangdd gained 4.79% [1] - NIO rose by 4.64% [1] - Alibaba increased by 4.55% [1] - Bawang Tea Ji rose by 4.47% [1] - Tencent Holdings ADR increased by 4.30% [1] - New Oriental rose by 4.15% [1] - Weibo increased by 3.82% [1] - iQIYI rose by 3.39% [1] - Li Auto increased by 3.01% [1] - Gaotu rose by 3.02% [1] - Beike increased by 2.79% [1] - Xunlei rose by 2.82% [1] - JD.com increased by 2.34% [1]

智通财经APP获悉，周五，纳斯达克中国金龙指数盘初涨幅扩大至4%，热门中概股强势上涨，百度 (BIDU.US)飙涨超12%，万国数据(GDS.US)涨超8%，网易(NTES.US)涨超6%，哔哩哔哩(BILI.US)涨近 6%，阿里巴巴(BABA.US)涨超4%。此外，2026港股实现开门红，日内恒指涨2.76%，恒生科技指数大 涨4%。 消息面上，1月2日上午，人民币维持近期强势走势，离岸人民币兑美元盘中升破6.97，最高升至 6.96755，创2023年5月以来阶段新高，有利于吸引资金回流，利好中国资产。 ...

Market Performance - The US stock market opened higher on January 2, with the Dow Jones up 0.19%, the S&P 500 up 0.58%, and the Nasdaq up 1.03% [1] - Chinese concept stocks also opened higher, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising 3.55% [1] Chinese Stocks - Notable gains among Chinese stocks include Baidu up over 10%, Futu Holdings up 6.84%, and Bilibili up 6.87% [1] - Other significant increases include Netease up 6.77%, Tiger Brokers up 5.54%, and Alibaba up 4.55% [1] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector saw broad gains, with ASML rising over 5%, Micron Technology up over 3%, and TSMC up over 2% [1] South Korean Market - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both reached all-time highs, with Samsung up 7.17% and SK Hynix up 3.99% [2] - The Kospi index in South Korea surpassed 4,300 points for the first time, driven by large tech stocks and investor optimism regarding artificial intelligence [2] AI Investments - Samsung SDS announced an investment of 427.3 billion KRW to build a new AI data center in Gumi City [3] OpenAI Developments - OpenAI is reportedly enhancing its audio AI models in preparation for the launch of its first AI-driven personal hardware device [4] - The device is expected to focus on audio interaction, with improvements being made to the audio model's accuracy and response speed [4]

Group 1 - The report from Huaxi Securities highlights that under global restructuring, Chinese assets are expected to present long opportunities, particularly in the AI sector driven by advancements like Google's Gemini 3.0 and the emergence of new technologies such as OCS optical switches and liquid cooling becoming standard by 2026 [1] - The introduction of next-generation chips like RUBIN and the listing of domestic AI chip manufacturers such as Moer and Muxi indicate that the domestic AI industry is accelerating its catch-up with overseas counterparts [1] - By the end of 2025, traditional internet companies represented by Google and Alibaba are expected to surpass emerging models like OpenAI and DeepSeek, marking a new height in the competition of large models [1] Group 2 - The Lingguang APP has successfully created 12 million flash applications as of December 26, indicating strong user engagement and growth in the AI assistant market [2] - Ant Group's AI health assistant, Antifufu, has exceeded 15 million monthly active users since its launch on December 16, showcasing the demand for AI-driven health solutions [2] Group 3 - ByteDance is increasing its investment in terminal devices, with the launch of the Doubao model 1.8 and the Doubao video generation model Seedance 1.5pro, which has seen a tenfold increase in daily token volume, reaching over 50 trillion tokens by December 2025 [3] - Lenovo plans to unveil an "AI super intelligent agent" at the 2026 CES, which will offer comprehensive AI capabilities and cross-device connectivity, further solidifying its partnership with ByteDance's Doubao and Huoshan Engine [3] Group 4 - The report anticipates that by early 2026, AI models and applications will flourish as companies like Zhiyu and Minimax prepare to enter the Hong Kong stock market, leading to a capital frenzy in the AI sector [4] - The evolution of AI capabilities is expected to lead to a surge in industrial applications, with robots transitioning from mechanical competition to brain and control capabilities, and smart driving nearing practical implementation [4] Group 5 - The report notes that the upcoming IPO of SpaceX in 2026 is likely to position space computing as a new technological battleground between China and the U.S. [5]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's stock price has been in a bear market, experiencing a decline of approximately 20% from its peak in 2025 [1] Price Movement - The stock price fell to a low of $146 in December [1] - A rebound occurred, with the stock price rising to $152 in pre-market trading [1]

Group 1 - Baidu's stock increased by over 12% [1] - NetEase's stock rose by more than 6% [1] - NIO's stock gained over 5% [1] Group 2 - New Oriental, GDS Holdings, Kingsoft Cloud, and Alibaba all saw stock increases of over 4% [1] - Bilibili's stock rose by more than 3% [1] - Li Auto, Pony.ai, Futu Holdings, TSMC, JD.com, JinkoSolar, Beike, Pinduoduo, Tencent Music, iQIYI, and Bawang Tea all experienced stock increases of over 2% [1]

Group 1 - The majority of Chinese concept stocks in the US market saw an increase in pre-market trading, with Baidu rising by 12% [1] - NIO experienced a 4% increase, while Bilibili and Alibaba both rose by 3% [1] - JD.com, Futu Holdings, and Xiaoma Zhixing each saw a 2% increase [1]