All right, final trade time. Tim Sey won't kick it off. First of all, great having Lori here. Brian, great having you here.We, you know, guy didn't say enough at the top of the show. City Bank, Money Center Bank's all-time high. >> And Lori, thank you for being here. >> Thank you guys for having me.Um, I'll go with financials. Um, a more reasonably valued rate cut beneficiary. >> Yeah. >> Yeah.UPS. Uh, Tim, you laid out like a nice little bookcase for something that's down 33% of the year, down 65% from its ...

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) is included among the 15 Best Performing Dividend Stocks So Far in 2025. Citigroup’s (C) Dividend Policy and its Role in Being Best Performing in 2025 Image by Steve Buissinne from Pixabay Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) is an American multinational financial services and investment banking company. The company faced major challenges during the recession from 2007 to 2009, forcing management to implement significant changes. It was a difficult time for both the business and its sharehold ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00-4.25%, marking the first reduction since December 2024 [1] - The Fed signaled two more rate cuts by the end of 2025, attributing the easing to a softening labor market rather than inflation pressures [1] Group 2: Impact on Banking Sector - Several U.S. banking stocks, including Citigroup, Bank of America, and Citizens Financial Group, reached new 52-week highs following the Fed's announcement [2] - Lower interest rates are expected to support net interest income (NII) growth, easing funding pressure for banks [3] - The improved lending backdrop and higher refinancing activity will help offset potential yield compression on loans and securities [3] - Increased borrowing and market liquidity are anticipated to drive higher deal volumes and trading opportunities, benefiting investment banking and trading businesses [3] Group 3: Citigroup Insights - Citigroup's NII has shown a three-year CAGR of 8.4% (ended 2024), with expectations for a 4% year-over-year increase in 2025 [5][12] - The company is streamlining consumer banking operations globally, exiting from nine countries to focus on wealth management and investment banking [6] - Citigroup projects a CAGR of 4-5% in revenues by the end of 2026, with expected annualized run rate savings of $2-2.5 billion by 2026 [7] Group 4: Bank of America Insights - Bank of America's NII has experienced a CAGR of 9.3% over the last three years, with management expecting a 6-7% year-over-year growth in 2025 [9][12] - The bank plans to open over 150 financial centers by 2027, with 40 expected to open this year, supporting NII and cross-selling opportunities [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Bank of America's earnings implies year-over-year growth of 12.2% and 16.1% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [13] Group 5: Citizens Financial Insights - Citizens Financial's total revenues have shown a CAGR of 3% over the last four years, driven by NII and fee income [14] - The company expects NII to grow 3-5% and non-interest income to rise 8-10% year-over-year in 2025 [14][12] - Citizens Financial aims for a return on tangible equity of 16-18% and a net interest margin of 3.25-3.50% by 2027 [15]

Core Insights - The market may have misinterpreted the Federal Reserve's latest signals, viewing Chairman Powell's "risk management" language as hawkish, while details suggest a dovish stance with potential for two more rate cuts this year [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Stance - Following a 25 basis point rate cut, Powell attributed the decision to "risk management," which Citigroup interprets as a guide for the market to prepare for future actions [1] - Citigroup believes that Powell's comments indicate a baseline scenario of completing a total of 75 basis points in cuts by year-end [2] - The FOMC's statement included a new emphasis on rising "downside risks to employment," confirming concerns about the labor market [3] Group 2: Economic Projections and Rate Path - The dot plot revealed a downward shift in rate projections, with 10 out of 19 participants lowering their forecasts, suggesting three more 25 basis point cuts this year [3] - Despite a slight increase in the 2026 core PCE inflation forecast, the downward adjustment in the rate path highlights a dovish shift [3] - Citigroup expects the Fed to lower the policy rate to a range of 3.00-3.25% over the coming months, totaling a 125 basis point reduction in this easing cycle [6] Group 3: Employment vs. Inflation Concerns - The focus of the Fed's policy is shifting from inflation risks to employment risks, with Powell noting that hiring slowdowns are due to both supply and demand factors [4][5] - The report emphasizes that the cooling labor market will be a key driver for the Fed's future actions [5]

Core Insights - The article narrates the journey of Gary Stevenson, who rose from humble beginnings to become a successful trader at Citigroup, only to leave the financial industry to pursue a deeper understanding of economic inequality and systemic issues [2][4][50]. Group 1: Early Life and Career - Gary Stevenson grew up in East London, facing poverty and challenges, which shaped his aspirations and drive for success [1][10]. - He entered the London School of Economics, distinguishing himself from his peers due to his background and experiences [9][10]. - In 2008, he joined Citigroup as the youngest trader in London, quickly becoming one of the top traders globally, managing thousands of billions in transactions [3][4][20]. Group 2: Trading Success and Challenges - Despite his success, Stevenson experienced sleepless nights and a sense of emptiness, leading him to question the true value of his achievements [5][6]. - He won a trading competition that secured him an internship at Citigroup, showcasing his unique approach to trading and market psychology [12][15]. - During the 2008 financial crisis, he capitalized on the demand for foreign exchange swaps, earning significant profits and establishing himself as a top trader [20][24][39]. Group 3: Insights on Economic Inequality - Stevenson observed that many traders lacked real-world understanding of economic issues, leading to poor decision-making during market downturns [27][32]. - He recognized the systemic nature of economic inequality, noting that wealth was increasingly concentrated among the elite while the middle class was being hollowed out [32][34]. - His experiences led him to believe that true change in the economic system required public awareness and action against entrenched interests [50][52]. Group 4: Departure from Finance - Over time, Stevenson became disillusioned with the repetitive nature of trading and the growing wealth gap, prompting him to leave Citigroup [41][46]. - After a challenging exit process, he pursued further education at Oxford University to study economics more deeply [49][50]. - He transitioned from being a player in the financial game to a critic of the system, advocating for reforms and raising awareness about economic disparities [50][52].

Core Viewpoint - Following the Federal Reserve's long-anticipated interest rate cut, Wall Street experienced a "sell the fact" trading pattern, with funds flowing out of overvalued tech stocks into traditional sectors like finance and utilities that benefit from lower rates [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and indicated the possibility of two more cuts within the year, citing employment risks [1]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted a slight increase in inflation risks and described the rate cut as a "risk management" move, which intensified the sell-off in tech stocks [1][4]. Group 2: Tech Sector Performance - The Nasdaq 100 index fell by 0.2%, with the tech-heavy "Big Seven" index declining by 0.66%, ending a four-day rally [1]. - Since early April, the "Big Seven" tech stocks, including Nvidia and Alphabet, surged nearly 60%, with their expected price-to-earnings ratio rising from about 22 to 30 [3]. - There was a notable divergence within the tech sector, with rate-sensitive stocks like Nvidia, Amazon, and Broadcom declining, while Apple and Microsoft, viewed as safer investments, saw gains [7]. Group 3: Bond Market Impact - The rise in U.S. Treasury yields negatively impacted tech stocks, with the 10-year yield increasing by 6.3 basis points and the 2-year yield by 5.62 basis points after Powell's remarks [4][6]. - Higher yields can diminish the present value of future profits, which is critical for tech companies whose valuations are heavily based on long-term earnings expectations [6]. Group 4: Traditional Sectors' Response - As tech stocks faced pressure, capital shifted towards sectors that directly benefit from lower interest rates, such as finance, consumer staples, and utilities, which performed well on the S&P 500 [8]. - The KBW Bank Index rose by 1.3%, benefiting from lower rates that are expected to stimulate loan demand and reduce deposit costs [8]. - The Russell 2000 small-cap index saw a temporary increase of 2.1%, reflecting a shift in risk appetite among investors [8]. Group 5: Market Sentiment - Despite the sector rotation, the market did not exhibit panic, with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) dropping below 16, indicating lower volatility compared to typical market stress levels [9]. - The S&P 500 index experienced only a 0.1% decline, marking one of the least volatile Fed decision days in two years [9].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup indicates that as the U.S. Treasury rebuilds its cash account, the reverse repo balance is being consumed, leading to a decline in bank reserves and increased pressure in the repo market, which may prompt Federal Reserve officials to discuss the balance sheet issue in their upcoming meeting [1][3][9] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Reduction - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction is nearing its final phase, with signs of liquidity tightening in the market [3][9] - According to Citigroup, the Fed's holdings of Treasury securities have decreased from approximately $5.8 trillion to $4.2 trillion, and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) have dropped from about $2.7 trillion to $2.1 trillion [4] - The Fed's balance sheet liabilities have shifted liquidity from reverse repos and bank reserves to the U.S. Treasury cash account, which has increased to about $680 billion and is expected to rise to around $850 billion [4][6] Group 2: Repo Market Pressure - As the reverse repo balance approaches zero, additional liquidity flowing into the Treasury cash account will primarily come from bank reserves, which are expected to decline to approximately $2.8 to $2.9 trillion by year-end [6] - The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) has been above the Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) for most of September, exceeding IORB by 11 basis points recently, indicating rising repo market pressure [6][8] - Despite the increased pressure in the repo market, the effective federal funds rate remains relatively stable, with a slight risk of rising in relation to reverse repo rates in the coming months [8] Group 3: Implications for Investors - Citigroup expects that if repo market pressures persist, the Federal Reserve may end its balance sheet reduction by the end of the year, although a specific timeline may not be immediately announced [9] - The change in the Fed's balance sheet reduction pace could impact short-term interest rate markets and the yield curve, potentially stabilizing market liquidity and supporting risk assets while exerting downward pressure on short-term rates [9]

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) is one of the Best Performing Financial Stocks So Far in 2025. On September 9, Citigroup Inc.’s (NYSE:C) Citi Investor Services announced the launch of new FiX API connectivity between its Advanced Citi ETF System and Bloomberg’s BSKT service. Management noted that, building upon the earlier integration of ACES and BSKT for fixed-income ETF basket negotiation, this update automates ETF creation and redemption for authorized participants. Ken Wolter / Shutterstock.com FIX is a gl ...

当地时间9月17日下午两点（北京时间9月18日凌晨两点），美联储将公布最新的议息结果。鲍威尔的新 闻发布会将在30分钟后举行。尽管市场普遍预期美联储将进行降息，但投资者仍有多个议题需要关注。 降息25个基点还是50个基点？ 尽管周三结束的议息会议市场普遍预期"降息"，但降息幅度仍然值得关注。 从数据看，美国在稳通胀同时，就业数据则出现了恶化。美国劳工统计局发布的数据显示，美国8月 CPI同比上涨2.9%，与市场预期的2.9%持平，前值为2.7%；核心CPI同比上涨3.1%，与市场预期的3.1% 持平，前值为3.1%。就业数据方面，8月非农就业人口增加2.2万人，预期7.5万人，前值7.3万人；失业 率4.3%，预期4.3%，前值4.2%。 芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具数据（CME Fed Watchtool）显示，美联储降息25个基点的可能性约 为96.0%，降息50个基点的可能性为4%。 摩根士丹利的报告则预计今年余下的三次会议均将降息25个基点，较此前预测增加了10月一次降息。同 时预计美联储将在2026年3月、6月、9月和12月各降息25个基点，使利率最终目标区间降至2.75%— 3.0%。 野村证券 ...

(Bloomberg) -- A resurgence in capital raising is pumping up one of Wall Street’s biggest bulls. Wells Fargo & Co.’s Mike Mayo hiked his price targets for some of the largest US lenders with a prediction that activity would hit record levels this year and next. The analyst raised estimates and price targets on money center banks JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp. by as much as 14%. Big US banks are set to “benefit from scale, deregulati ...