Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - 232 tariff exemption for refined copper, copper prices may fluctuate downward, but the decline may not be smooth, with support expected in the range of 76,000 - 77,000 yuan/ton [5][8][15] - The supply of copper concentrates is facing challenges, with the growth rate falling short of expectations, and the tight supply situation is difficult to ease [29][39] - Overseas consumption remains resilient in Q3, but uncertainty increases in Q4; domestic demand is differentiated, with some sectors showing growth and others being dragged down [6][15][73] - The import window may open periodically, presenting a good positive arbitrage opportunity, but in the long - term, it may remain closed [8][16] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Copper Market Overview - On July 30, Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products starting from August 1, excluding copper ores and cathode copper, causing a 18% plunge in US copper prices [5][14] - The COMEX - LME spread quickly converged to 2% - 3%, and if US copper is re - exported, the LME inventory accumulation rate may accelerate [5][14] - Due to the 232 tariff policy, the pre - consumption of copper globally has advanced, with overseas demand growing steadily and domestic demand in China and emerging economies weakening marginally [6][15] II. Fundamental Situation 1. Market Review - In July, copper prices fluctuated at a high level. The expectation of the 232 tariff policy led to a shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions, pushing up prices, which then fell back after the policy was announced [11] - The抢 - import of copper in the US from April to May led to a shortage of supply in non - US regions and a decrease in LME inventory. After the 232 policy was expected to be implemented, the LME inventory started to increase [12] 2. Market Outlook - Macroscopically, the US economy remains resilient, and the impact of the tariff policy depends on whether the US reaches a settlement with other countries [13][15] - In terms of supply, the supply of copper concentrates faces challenges, and domestic smelters have a low willingness to cut production, while overseas smelters may further reduce production [13][14] - In terms of demand, overseas demand remains stable, and domestic demand is differentiated but will not collapse [15] - In terms of prices, copper prices face downward pressure, but the decline may not be smooth [15] - In terms of ratios, the import window may open periodically, but will remain closed in the long - term [16] III. Copper Mine Disturbances Increase, Supply Tightness Difficult to Alleviate 1. Copper Concentrate Supply Growth Rate Falls Short of Expectations - In 2025, the supply of copper mines is tight. Some major mining companies have lowered their production expectations, and the supply growth rate is lower than expected [29] - The increase in domestic imports of copper concentrates in the first half of the year is due to the unstable production of overseas smelters, but overall, the supply of copper mines is still tight, and it is difficult for processing fees to rise significantly [39] 2. Global Scrap Copper Supply Mismatch, Tight Domestic Scrap Copper Supply - After the reciprocal 10% tariffs between China and the US, the export volume of US scrap copper did not decrease, but the export destination changed. China's imports from the US decreased significantly [40] - China has increased imports from Thailand and Europe to replace US scrap copper, but the import growth rate has declined, and the difficulty of importing scrap copper has increased [41] 3. Global Refined Copper Production Situation - Overseas smelters have increased production cuts due to factors such as low processing fees, copper concentrate shortages, and high costs. Some major smelters have stopped production or plan to cut production [46] - Domestic smelters have a low willingness to cut production due to high sulfuric acid prices. The production of electrolytic copper in the first half of 2025 increased year - on - year, and it is expected to continue to increase in the second half of the year [47][48] IV. Consumption Analysis 1. Overseas Consumption Remains Resilient in Q3, Uncertainty Increases in Q4 - The US economy remains resilient, and the risk of recession has decreased significantly. The impact of the tariff policy on the US manufacturing industry is not obvious [53][54] - The global manufacturing PMI rebounded in June, with most developed countries showing an upward trend, while China and some emerging economies declined [54] 2. Domestic Demand Differentiation - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market continues to drag down copper consumption. The decline in construction completion area leads to a decrease in copper demand, and the impact of policy rate cuts on the real estate market is limited in the short - term [73][74] - **Power Grid and Power Source**: In the first half of 2025, grid investment increased year - on - year, and power source investment increased significantly. However, the wire and cable industry was affected by the off - season and high copper prices, and the export situation was different in different regions [80][83] - **Air - conditioning Market**: In the first half of 2025, the air - conditioning market showed growth, but the export market declined. The consumption growth rate of air - conditioners is expected to decline, and the copper consumption will increase slightly [91][92] - **Automobile Market**: The overall automobile market is stable, but the profitability is declining. The sales of fuel - powered vehicles are declining, and the substitution of new - energy vehicles for fuel - powered vehicles is the general trend [100] 3. "Anti - involution" Involves the Automobile Industry, Wind and Solar Power Generation Exceeds Expectations - **New - energy Vehicles**: The global new - energy vehicle market continues to grow. China leads the market, but the growth rate has slowed down in June - August. The copper consumption of new - energy vehicles is expected to increase [103][111] - **Wind and Solar Power Generation**: In the first half of 2025, China's photovoltaic and wind power new - installed capacity increased significantly year - on - year. The new - installed capacity of global photovoltaic and wind power is also expected to increase, and the copper consumption will increase accordingly [113][115] 4. Consumption Summary - Overseas demand remains stable, and domestic demand weakens marginally but does not collapse. The growth of new - energy vehicles, photovoltaic, and wind power will drive copper consumption, while the real estate market will continue to drag down copper consumption [139] V. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2024, there was a shortage of 130,000 tons of copper concentrates, and in 2025, the supply gap is expected to widen to 830,000 tons. In 2024, there was a surplus of 330,000 tons of refined copper, and in 2025, the surplus is expected to be 280,000 tons [143] - In July 2025, the domestic refined copper production and apparent consumption increased, but the year - on - year growth rate decreased due to the high base in 2024 [143]

该公司报告称，上半年铜产量同比下降26%，至3343,900吨，主要是因为矿石品位下降。该公司还将2025年全年铜产量预估自此前的850,000-890,000吨上调 至850,000-910,000吨。预计未来数月，其铜产量会更高。 数据显示，该公司2024年铜产量为952,000吨。 该公司表示将关闭其在澳大利亚Mount Isa的最后两座铜矿并已同意出售旗下菲律宾的铜冶炼厂。 上半年其钴产量为18,900吨，较上年同期增加19%。 （文华综合） 7月30日（周三），嘉能可周三报告称，上半年铜产量下降并表示其目标是在2026年底前节省10亿美元成本。 该公司首席执行官Gary Nagle在一份声明中表示："对我们的工业资产组合进行了全面审查……，认识到简化工业运营结构的机会。" 他补充说，该公司将在8月6日的半年报中提供更多细节。 ...

Core Insights - The report from Glencore indicates a significant 26% drop in copper production in the first half of the year, leading to a downward revision of annual guidance, which may signal a potential rebound in copper prices [1] Group 1: Production and Guidance - Copper production has decreased by 26% in the first half of the year [1] - Annual production guidance has been revised downward due to the production decline [1] Group 2: Market Implications - Glencore's report may act as a catalyst for a rebound in copper prices, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics [1]

嘉能可现预计2025财年镍产量为7.4万至8万吨。 ...

嘉能可现预计本财年锌产量为94-98万吨。 ...

嘉能可现预计本财年钴产量为4.2万至4.5万吨。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic copper smelter's maintenance capacity in July may decrease month - on - month, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has begun to decline [1]. - The passage of the stablecoin - related bill in the US and the increased probability of the Fed's rate cut in September, along with disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation and a decline in domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, may lead to price adjustments in copper. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to specific support and pressure levels for different copper markets [3]. 3. Section Summaries Macro - The US House of Representatives passed a stablecoin - related bill and allowed pension funds to invest in assets such as gold and digital currencies. The import tariff pushed up commodity prices, and the US June consumer price index (CPI) annual rate increased. The initial jobless claims were 227,000, better than expected and the previous value. Due to the Trump administration's pressure on Powell for a rate cut, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September increased while that in December decreased [3]. Upstream - The Chinese copper concentrate import index rose compared to last week. The out - port (in - port, inventory) volume of copper concentrate at ports in the world (China) decreased (decreased, increased) last week. High - quality European scrap copper exports were restricted, and domestic importers could only buy copper scrap or brass. Concerns about Sino - US reciprocal tariffs led to low direct imports of US scrap copper. The price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper reduced the economic viability of scrap copper. The opening of the copper import window and transit supplies from countries like Japan, South Korea, and Thailand may lead to a month - on - month decrease (increase) in domestic scrap copper production (import) in July, with a change in supply - demand expectations. Tight raw material supply made traders hold back goods. Some copper plants and smelters have suspended production due to supply shortages. Multiple domestic copper production projects may increase the domestic electrolytic copper production in July, while the closed import window may limit imports, leading to an increase in the bonded - area inventory, a decrease in the social inventory, and an increase in the futures exchange inventory. Some international traders are still transporting about 500 million tons of copper to US ports, increasing the COMEX copper inventory [3]. Downstream - The daily processing fee for refined copper rods for power and cable wrapping in East China increased compared to last week. New downstream orders decreased, leading to weaker demand. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) increased (increased) compared to last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises increased (decreased) compared to last week, while that of recycled copper rod enterprises decreased (increased). The capacity utilization rate of copper wire and cable increased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises increased (decreased). The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of copper cable wrapping decreased (decreased), and the inventory days of raw materials (finished products) for cable - wrapping enterprises decreased (decreased). The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of copper plate and strip increased (increased), and the inventory days of raw materials (finished products) for copper plate and strip enterprises decreased (decreased). The capacity utilization rate of copper pipes decreased, and the inventory days of raw materials (finished products) for copper pipe enterprises decreased. The capacity utilization rate of brass rods increased, and the inventory days of raw materials (finished products) for brass rod enterprises decreased. The easing of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the arrival of the traditional consumption off - season may lead to a month - on - month decline in the capacity utilization rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic steel enterprises in July. Specifically, the capacity utilization rate of some copper - related industries may decline, while that of copper foil may increase [3]. Market Data - For the Shanghai copper futures active contract on July 24, 2025: the closing price was 79,890, the trading volume was 161,652 lots, the open interest was 181,496 lots, the inventory was 16,183 tons, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 79,795. The Shanghai copper basis or spot premium/discount and various spreads also had corresponding changes compared to previous days [2]. - For London copper on July 24, 2025: the LME3 July copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,854.5, and there were changes in registration and cancellation of total warehouse - receipt inventory and contract spreads [2]. - For COMEX copper on July 24, 2025: the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.826, and the total inventory was 247,859 [2]. News Events - An accident occurred in the underground operation area of the Red Chris mine in Canada, leaving three workers trapped. Glencore has suspended the mine's operation. Glencore will close its Mount Isa copper mine in Queensland, Australia, next week, which was first announced in October 2023 [2].

Group 1 - Colombian President Petro expressed willingness to unilaterally change Glencore's coal contracts if coal exports to Israel continue [1] - The statement indicates a potential shift in Colombia's coal export policy, particularly concerning its relationship with Israel [1] - This move could impact Glencore's operations and financial performance in the region [1] Group 2 - The decision reflects broader geopolitical considerations and Colombia's stance on international relations [1] - The coal industry may face increased scrutiny and potential regulatory changes as a result of this announcement [1] - Investors should monitor developments in Colombia's coal export policies and their implications for market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - Deloitte is under investigation by the UK's Financial Reporting Council (FRC) regarding its audit work for Glencore and its UK subsidiaries from 2013 to 2020, specifically whether it adequately considered the risks of legal and regulatory violations [1] Group 1 - The FRC announced the investigation on July 22, indicating concerns over Deloitte's auditing practices [1] - Glencore and its UK subsidiaries have been subject to investigations by UK government agencies for misconduct [1]

Group 1 - Major commodity traders Trafigura, Mercuria, Glencore, and IXM are expected to earn over $312 million in profits due to record copper shipments to the U.S. before the implementation of tariffs [1][4] - The U.S. copper price surged by 13% following the announcement of a 50% tariff on copper by the Trump administration, creating a significant arbitrage opportunity for traders [1][4] - Since the election in November, these traders have imported approximately 600,000 tons of "surplus" copper into the U.S., exceeding normal demand [4][7] Group 2 - The average price difference between LME and Comex since February indicates a profit of about $520 per ton after accounting for costs, leading to substantial profits for the traders involved [4] - Trafigura has imported around 200,000 tons of copper, while Mercuria is expected to bring in nearly 200,000 tons by the end of the month [4] - The influx of copper into the U.S. has significantly drained supply from global markets, marking a unique period in the copper market [4][7]