格隆汇1月29日｜Alphabet(GOOG.US)盘前涨1.9%，此前竞争对手Meta公司上调了年度资本支出计划。 ...

作者 | Big Technology Podcast 编译 | 王启隆 出品丨AI 科技大本营（ID：rgznai100） 如果说 Sam Altman 是 AI 时代的布道者，善于用宏大的愿景点燃公众的想象力；那么 Demis Hassabis 更像是一位在实验室里盯着显微镜的科学 家，冷静、严谨，对"炒作"有着天然的免疫力。 一年前，当整个硅谷都在因为 ChatGPT 的红利期似乎见顶而焦虑，甚至开始讨论"大语言模型（LLM）是否撞墙"时，Demis 却感到困惑。在他看来， 进步从未停止。他掌舵的 Google DeepMind 刚刚经历了 AlphaFold 3 的高光时刻，正试图将 AI 的触角从简单的聊天机器人延伸到生物学、物理学乃 至材料科学的最深处。 在达沃斯的一间木质会议室里，Demis 近期接受了 Big Technology 播客的专访。这场对话的特别之处在于，他没有回避那些尖锐的问题： 现在的 AI 是不是只有"金鱼记忆"？谷歌会不会为了财报在 Gemini 里塞满广告？所谓的 AGI 究竟是营销话术还是科学定义？ 最令人印象深刻的是他对"智能载体"的断言。在纪录片《The Think ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is initiating an investigation into a Waymo self-driving vehicle that struck a child near an elementary school in Santa Monica, California [1] Group 1 - The incident involves a self-driving vehicle operated by Waymo, a company specializing in autonomous driving technology [1] - The investigation by NHTSA highlights ongoing safety concerns regarding autonomous vehicles, particularly in school zones [1] - This event may impact public perception and regulatory scrutiny of self-driving technology [1]

黄金已经涨疯了！ 今早，COMEX黄金一度突破5600美元，伦敦金现逼近5600美元，前者在短短4个交易日内，连破7道整百关口，涨势之迅猛引发全球关注。 但斌此时转发了一篇分析"历史上黄金白银暴涨后惨烈结局"的短文，被网友反击："吃不上葡萄说葡萄酸。" 对此，他再次回应："我不酸！我对黄金没有太多研究。" 其中的观点是：黄金是保值资产，价格反映的是阶段性的供求变化，长期跑不赢生息资产。 对于近两年地缘冲突对黄金投资价值的影响，但斌认为这不好评估。 "黄金，我们其实没有太关注，就像巴菲特说的，黄金就是保值，其实过去200年黄金就是保值，因为它不是生息资产，长期跑不赢生息资产， 所以我们倒没有太买这些东西。这两年它又加了一个地缘政治问题，你想我们央行买了这么多、全世界都在买黄金，可能会导致阶段性的变 化，也行未来两年，惊涛骇浪来了呢？那它可能又涨，这个东西不好说。" 对于但斌更好看的生息资产，恰好其执掌的东方港湾海外基金最新美股持仓曝光，四季度大动作不断，最大的亮点是谷歌超越英伟达，成为第一大重仓 股。 截至2025年末，东方港湾海外基金共持有10只美股标的，持股市值合计13.16亿美元，折合人民币超91亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current interest in artificial intelligence (AI) is characterized as a bubble, with expectations of significant future losses for most investors [2]. Group 1: Historical Context of Technology Bubbles - Numerous technology bubbles have occurred throughout history, with revolutionary innovations often leading to greater speculative bubbles [3]. - Historical examples include the British railway mania, the internet boom, and the SPAC bubble, which share common characteristics that can be applied to the current AI situation [3][4]. Group 2: Characteristics of the Current AI Bubble - The emergence of AI has generated extravagant claims, with proponents suggesting it will solve major global issues and transform economies [9]. - There is a climate of easy money, with low interest rates encouraging speculative investments in AI, similar to past bubbles [11][12]. - Investor optimism is high, with significant disparities between investor sentiment and general public sentiment, driven by economic inequality [19][22]. - A surge in publications and media coverage promoting AI has created a narrative that fuels speculation, reminiscent of past technological manias [25][23]. Group 3: Investment Trends and Valuations - AI startups raised over $200 billion in 2025, with significant capital flowing into private markets rather than public equity [32][33]. - Valuations in the AI sector are extremely high, with companies like OpenAI and Anthropic seeing massive increases in their valuations [41]. - The current market cap to GDP ratio and cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratios indicate that U.S. equities are overpriced, with the CAPE reaching 40 [34][40]. Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The AI technology remains immature, with many experts doubting its ability to achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI) in the near future [42][46]. - There is a significant overcommitment of capital in the AI sector, leading to concerns about future returns and profitability [49][53]. - Unscrupulous behavior and dubious accounting practices are present in the AI ecosystem, reminiscent of past bubbles [54][59]. Group 5: Potential Outcomes - The investment boom in AI may be nearing its end, with signs of financial strain among major players and rising costs impacting profitability [65][66]. - Historical patterns suggest that once the bubble bursts, significant corporate bankruptcies and a shakeout phase will follow, leading to a consolidation in the industry [61][62].

Core Insights - The Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund achieved a 15.1% annual return in 2025, driven by strong performances in technology and financial sectors, continuing its reliance on large tech stocks [1] - The fund, managed by the Norwegian Central Bank Investment Management (NBIM), reported a stock investment return of 19.3%, with other asset classes also showing growth [1] - Despite solid overall performance, the fund lagged its benchmark index by 28 basis points [1] Group 1: Performance Highlights - Large tech stocks have consistently dominated the fund's performance in recent quarters, with NBIM holding approximately 1.5% of listed shares in around 7,200 companies globally [2] - The fund's largest holdings include major U.S. tech giants such as Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon [2] - Other asset classes also recorded positive returns, with fixed income investments yielding 5.4% and private real estate investments returning 4.4% [2] - The most notable performance came from private renewable energy infrastructure investments, which achieved a return rate of 18.1% [2] Group 2: Geographical Concentration Concerns - Over half of the fund's assets are concentrated in the U.S., primarily in stocks and bonds, raising concerns among experts due to recent geopolitical tensions [3] - An expert panel appointed by the government has recommended that the fund prepare for increasing geopolitical instability, particularly in light of recent comments from former President Trump regarding Greenland [3] - The expert panel advised against limiting the fund's investment scope, suggesting that NBIM should maintain its global and diversified investment strategy while addressing geopolitical risks [3]

以下文章来源于蓝点网 ，作者山外的鸭子哥 蓝点网 . 科技资讯、软件工具、技术教程，尽在蓝点网。蓝点网，给你感兴趣的内容 #系统资讯 安卓电脑首个视频流出？谷歌工程师提交的错误报告意外附带安卓桌面版即 Aluminum OS 铝系统的录制 视频，使用的设备搭载的是英特尔第 12 代处理器。视频显示这个系统基于 Android 16，顶部为工具栏、底部为任务 栏和应用图标，支持分屏多任务处理等。 此前谷歌已经透露将把安卓系统与 ChromeOS 系统合并，谷歌的最终目的是将安卓打造为同时兼容 移动设备和桌面设备的新系统，也就是大家戏称的安卓电脑。 这里还涉及到新系统的名称： Aluminum OS 铝系统 ，需要特别强调的这只是谷歌内部给安卓桌 面版起的 代号 ，并非最终名称 (虽然从 ChromeOS 来看说不好最终就叫这个名字)。 日前有谷歌工程师在 Chromium 问题跟踪器上提交的错误报告意外提前泄露安卓桌面版的界面(目前 这个报告已经被设置权限无法公开查看)，这应该是谷歌宣布合并系统以来首次出现的官方版截图和 视频。 谷歌工程师使用的设备是惠普推出的 Chromebook，这款设备搭载的是英特尔在 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are increasingly cautious about Big Tech's AI spending, expecting substantial growth in return for record investments, particularly following the launch of ChatGPT over three years ago [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Meta Platforms reported a 24% revenue increase in the December quarter, driven by enhanced online ad targeting through AI, and forecasts a further 33% growth in the current quarter [2][10]. - Microsoft experienced only slight growth in its Azure cloud-computing business, which fell short of expectations despite record spending [3]. - Tesla plans to double its capital expenditure to over $20 billion this year, focusing on AI and autonomous vehicles, although this raised concerns about the alignment of corporate AI ambitions with investor expectations [12][13]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors reacted negatively to Microsoft’s earnings, leading to a 6.5% drop in its shares, while Meta's shares surged by 10% due to its strong revenue guidance [6]. - The market is increasingly questioning whether the significant capital expenditures by tech companies will yield adequate returns, reflecting a growing divide between AI ambitions and Wall Street's patience [13][14]. Group 3: AI Investment and Risks - Microsoft disclosed that its investment in OpenAI accounts for 45% of its backlog, raising concerns about concentration risk as the startup faces challenges in maintaining momentum in the AI race [4]. - Meta's aggressive investment strategy in AI and data centers is expected to lead to a 43% increase in total expenses this year, reaching $169 billion [10][11].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the cloud computing and CDN (Content Delivery Network) industries, highlighting a significant price increase driven by AI demand and rising costs in upstream components such as CPUs and semiconductors [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Price Increases**: Major cloud service providers like Google Cloud and AWS have announced price hikes, indicating a shift in pricing logic from expansion to profitability in the cloud computing sector [1][2][3]. - **AI Demand**: The surge in AI-driven computational needs is a primary factor behind the price increases, with NVIDIA's H-series graphics cards rebounding in price and a notable rise in demand for AI applications [2][6]. - **Beneficiaries of Price Hikes**: Companies like Kingsoft Cloud and UCloud, which are in a turnaround phase, are expected to benefit from the overall price increase in the cloud market. The CDN sector, particularly with Google CDN's price doubling, is also poised for significant gains [5][11]. - **Domestic Market Dynamics**: In China, major players such as Alibaba Cloud, Tencent Cloud, and Baidu are highlighted. Alibaba has consistently exceeded market expectations, while Tencent's focus on AI is noteworthy. Baidu's upcoming IPO of Kunlun chips and its cash reserves provide growth potential [7][11]. - **Telecommunications Opportunities**: The optical chip sector is emphasized, with a favorable outlook from 2025 to 2028. Companies like Yuanjie Technology are expected to maintain high profit margins through innovative solutions [8][9]. - **Long-term Growth in Optical Chips**: The domestic optical chip industry is projected to grow, driven by increasing demand and a shift towards domestic production of lithium phosphate-based optical chips [9][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Trends**: The cloud computing and CDN industries are experiencing high growth, with increasing traffic driving demand for DCA (Data Center Automation), CDN, and edge computing services [11]. - **Electronic Sector Price Trends**: The electronic sector is also witnessing widespread price increases, with passive components and power devices seeing price hikes of 10%-20% due to rising raw material costs and a shift from inventory destocking to replenishment [12][13]. - **Investment Strategies**: For the electronic sector, investment opportunities include companies embracing AI and those benefiting from upstream price increases. Companies with lower valuations but significant growth potential in sectors like MCU and power semiconductors are also recommended [13].

去年（2025 年）美股暴跌期间有哪些具体情况和应对策略？ 去年（2025 年）8 月 5 日至 8 月 7 日，美股经历了显著暴跌，其中 8 月 6 号 盘前继续大跌。当时 VX 指数恐慌指数一度涨至 42.8，这是该指数诞生 31 年 来仅 16 次超过 40。在这种情况下，我认为恐慌时买入是正确的选择，并在英 但斌：AI 远远没有泡沫，全力以赴拥抱 AI20260128 摘要 2025 年 8 月美股暴跌期间，恐慌指数飙升至 42.8，为 31 年来罕见。 在此背景下，逢低买入英伟达等优质股票，如在 92 美元买入英伟达， 短期内获得 10%回报，验证了恐慌时买入的有效性。 美股与 A 股走势迥异，美股长期上涨，A 股呈锯齿形。美股通过分红和 回购实现内生增长，是其不断创新高的重要动力，长期投资回报率显著 高于 A 股。 克服比特币下跌恐惧的关键在于观察其长期走势。尽管波动剧烈，但比 特币总体呈上升趋势。然而，比特币作为不生息资产，长期回报不如股 票等生息资产。 技术进步是推动财富增长的核心动力。人工智能时代为投资者提供巨大 机遇，类似于过去的电子硬件、互联网和移动互联网时代，应全力以赴 抓住 AI 机 ...