. It paid handsomely for a long time. But last year, it didn't. For the first time since 2022, when the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates, the majority of the Magnificent 7 tech giants-Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Meta Platforms, Alphabet, Amazon and Tesla-performed worse than the S& Index. While the Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Index rose 25% in 2025, compared with 16% for the S&, that was only because of the enormous gains by Alphabet Inc. and Nvidia Corp. Many Wall Street pros see that dynamic conti ...

Group 1 - California is facing a significant budget deficit, projected to reach nearly $18 billion for the 2026-27 fiscal year, marking the fourth consecutive year of fiscal shortfall [3][31] - The state has seen its collective wealth among billionaires surge from $300 billion in 2011 to over $2.2 trillion by 2025, with a wealth growth rate of approximately 7.5% annually, significantly outpacing the 1.5% growth rate of average incomes [5][33] - A proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on billionaires aims to address the budget deficit, potentially raising around $100 billion over five years, with 90% allocated to healthcare services [5][34] Group 2 - The proposal has sparked notable divisions within the California Democratic Party, with Governor Gavin Newsom opposing it, citing concerns over potential capital flight and negative impacts on middle-class jobs [8][36] - Historical precedents from other countries indicate that wealth taxes often lead to capital flight and do not yield the expected tax revenues, as seen in France and Sweden [9][37] - Supporters of the wealth tax argue that it is a necessary measure to ensure the wealthy contribute fairly, especially in light of rising public service funding needs [24][53] Group 3 - High-profile billionaires, including Larry Page and Elon Musk, have begun relocating their residences out of California, signaling a potential exodus in response to the proposed tax [11][44] - The tax proposal's implementation faces challenges, particularly in assessing wealth primarily held in stock, which complicates the collection of taxes [46][48] - The political landscape surrounding the wealth tax reflects a broader shift in American politics, with increasing calls for wealth redistribution amid growing income inequality [52][54]

Core Viewpoint - The strategy of heavily investing in major U.S. tech stocks has underperformed since 2025, with many companies lagging behind the S&P 500 index for the first time since the Fed began raising interest rates in 2022 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The "Seven Giants" index rose by 25% in 2025, outperforming the S&P 500's 16% increase, but this growth was primarily driven by Google and Nvidia [1] - The Seven Giants index only increased by 0.5% at the beginning of 2026, while the S&P 500 rose by 1.8% [1] - The earnings growth for the Seven Giants is projected to be around 18% in 2026, the slowest since 2022, compared to a 13% expected growth for the other 493 S&P 500 constituents [5] Group 2: Individual Company Insights Nvidia - Nvidia, a leading AI chip manufacturer, faces increased competition and concerns about the sustainability of spending from its largest customers [5] - Despite a 1165% increase since the end of 2022, Nvidia's stock has dropped 11% since reaching an all-time high on October 29, 2025 [5] - Analysts remain optimistic, with 76 out of 82 covering analysts rating it as a "buy," indicating a potential 39% upside in the next 12 months [6] Microsoft - Microsoft is expected to spend nearly $100 billion in capital expenditures for the fiscal year ending June 2026, with projections rising to $116 billion for the next fiscal year [9] - The company has struggled to convince customers to pay for integrated AI features, leading to investor concerns about the return on its significant investments [10] Apple - Apple has taken a conservative approach to AI, resulting in a nearly 20% stock price drop by early August 2025, but later rebounded by 34% by the end of the year [11] - The company is expected to achieve a 9% revenue growth in the fiscal year ending September 2026, the fastest since 2021 [11] Google - Google has emerged as a leader in AI, with its Gemini AI model receiving positive reviews and its self-developed TPU seen as a key revenue growth driver [12] - The stock price increased over 65% in 2025, but analysts predict only a 3.9% increase in 2026 [12] Amazon - Amazon was the worst performer among the Seven Giants in 2025 but has seen a strong rebound in early 2026, driven by its AWS cloud computing business [13] - The company is expected to benefit from efficiency improvements in warehousing and logistics, potentially leading to significant stock price growth [13] Meta - Meta's significant investments in AI have raised investor skepticism, particularly after increasing its capital expenditure forecast to $72 billion for 2025 and expecting a "substantial increase" in 2026 [14] - The stock saw a 35% increase earlier in 2025 but has since declined by 17% [14] Tesla - Tesla's stock price was the lowest among the Seven Giants in the first half of 2025 but surged over 40% in the second half as the focus shifted to autonomous vehicles and robotics [15] - Analysts predict a 12% revenue growth for Tesla in 2026, following a projected 3% decline in 2025 [15]

Group 1 - TSMC is progressing well with the development of its next-generation 1.4nm process, planning to start risk production in 2027 and gradually ramp up production in 2028. The company expects sales to reach NT$335 billion in December 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, slightly exceeding market expectations. Cumulative sales for 2025 are projected at NT$3.81 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.6% [2] - OpenAI is advancing audio AI technology and plans to release a more natural real-time voice model in 2026, aiming to replace screen interactions with voice. The company is also investing $1 billion with SoftBank Group in SB Energy to support its growth as a data center developer and operator [2] - Meta has reached agreements with nuclear power suppliers Oklo, Vistra, and TerraPower to potentially acquire up to 6.6 GW of nuclear power capacity by 2035, positioning itself as the largest nuclear energy buyer among tech giants to support its data center operations [2] - Merck is reportedly in talks to acquire cancer drug developer Revolution Medicines for between $28 billion and $32 billion, which would mark a significant transaction in the recent biotech merger wave and enhance its oncology product line [2] Group 2 - Geely Holding is likely to announce an expansion plan in the U.S. within the next 24 to 36 months, with brands like Zeekr and Lynk & Co potentially suitable for the U.S. market, aiming to accelerate its global layout and expand into high-end overseas markets [5] - BAIC New Energy has launched a pilot operation for the Arcfox Alpha S (L3 version) in collaboration with Beijing Mobility, with the first batch of vehicles expected to enter designated areas by Q2 2026, promoting the commercialization of autonomous driving technology [5] - China Resources Microelectronics has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with TCL Industries and Zhonghuan Lianxing, focusing on power devices, smart power modules, and MCUs to enhance competitiveness in the semiconductor supply chain [5] - Tencent's Chief AI Scientist stated that the company has a strong 2C gene and faces challenges in the 2B market in China, indicating a future exploration of differentiated development paths for 2B business [5] - Stone Technology has received approval from the CSRC for its Hong Kong IPO, planning to issue no more than 33.108 million shares, which will further expand its financing channels [6] Group 3 - Samsung Electronics' Galaxy S26 Ultra model will support eSIM and is expected to be released next month, while major tech companies like Google, Microsoft, and Meta are seeking memory supply support from Samsung and SK Hynix due to global memory shortages [11] - Toyota remains the top-selling car brand in Indonesia for 2025, while Tesla has surpassed Toyota in global market capitalization, reflecting ongoing market optimism for the electric vehicle sector and increasing pressure on traditional automakers [11] - Sumitomo Metal Mining is investing in a nickel wet processing plant in Indonesia to build a stable resource supply network, with Japan's nickel metal production expected to reach 106,000 tons by 2025 [11] - BMW Group expects global sales of 2.464 million units in 2025, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, with a 12.5% decline in the Chinese market, while European and U.S. markets show growth of 7.3% and 5.0%, respectively [13] - LVMH is reportedly collaborating with Chinese beauty brand Mao Geping, although specific details of the partnership have not been disclosed, indicating its expansion in the beauty sector [13]

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry has taken a bearish stance on Oracle Corporation, indicating concerns about the company's strategic positioning and financial health [1][3][6] Company Overview - Oracle is a leading database software company that has recently expanded into cloud-computing services, which has required significant debt to enhance data center capacity [2] Financial Concerns - Oracle currently has approximately $95 billion in outstanding debt, making it the largest corporate issuer outside the financial sector in the Bloomberg high-grade index [4] - The company's shares have experienced a significant decline of about 40% from their peak in September [3] Investor Sentiment - Burry's decision to short Oracle reflects his dissatisfaction with the company's strategy and investments, although he did not provide specific details about the put options [3][6] - Burry has expressed caution regarding shorting larger tech companies like Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft, suggesting that their diversified business models may help them maintain dominance despite potential challenges [5]

Core Viewpoint - The "Magnificent Seven" companies, including Amazon and Alphabet, are positioned for significant growth driven by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), which is projected to create trillions in economic value in the coming years [1]. Group 1: Amazon - Amazon has generated substantial wealth for investors over the past 20 years, benefiting from diverse revenue streams such as advertising, merchant services, and subscriptions, while leading the $390 billion cloud computing market [3][4]. - In Q3, Amazon's total revenue increased by 13% year over year, reaching $180 billion, although free cash flow has declined due to increased capital expenditures aimed at supporting growth [4][6]. - The company spent nearly $120 billion on capital expenditures over the trailing 12 months, a 72% year-over-year increase, raising concerns about margin pressure, but historical trends suggest higher profitability following such investment cycles [6][7]. - Amazon's stock has delivered a 700% return over the last decade, with free cash flow expected to grow from $7 billion in 2015 to $20 billion in 2025, and analysts project it will exceed $142 billion by 2029, indicating a 63% annualized growth rate [8]. Group 2: Alphabet - Alphabet is experiencing growth from the rising demand for AI cloud services and advertising, with revenue expected to increase by 14% in 2026, reaching $455 billion [9]. - The company has been investing in AI since 2015, enhancing the effectiveness of ad spending across its platforms, which has resulted in more personalized ads for its 2 billion users [10]. - Google Search revenue surged by 16% year over year in Q3, with the recent launch of AI Max expected to further enhance ad relevance by matching advertisers with a broader range of search queries [11]. - Alphabet's stock has returned 783% over the last decade, with free cash flow projected to grow from $16 billion in 2015 to $65 billion in 2025, and analysts expect it to reach $157 billion by 2029, potentially doubling the share price within five years [14].

Core Insights - AI-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are facing challenges after two years of strong inflows, with a concentration in a few dominant tech stocks leading to potential risks for investors [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Billions of dollars have flowed into U.S.-listed technology and thematic ETFs, allowing investors to gain exposure to the AI theme without picking individual stocks [3] - Most AI ETFs are heavily weighted towards a small group of mega-cap technology companies, which has driven strong returns during the AI enthusiasm [3][4] - The "Magnificent 7" stocks, including Nvidia, Alphabet, and Microsoft, dominate many AI ETFs, increasing concentration risk [5] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Draco's AI ETF offers a more diversified approach, incorporating major holdings in debt funds and other assets, which has resulted in over 30% growth over the past year [6] - The structure of AI ETFs is crucial as the next phase of AI investing will test their resilience; many simply track AI-related companies without adjusting for market conditions [7][8] - Flexibility in AI ETFs, such as adjusting exposure rather than holding every stock with an AI label, will become increasingly important as market conditions change [8][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - Spending plans from major cloud and technology companies will be a key indicator for the outlook of AI ETFs; continued heavy investment is essential for the broader AI ecosystem [11][12] - The "Magnificent 7" are expected to invest nearly $400 billion into AI infrastructure this year, which will significantly impact market sentiment [12]

Core Insights - Walmart Inc. is collaborating with Alphabet Inc. to implement AI-enhanced shopping experiences on Google's Gemini platform, aiming to integrate this technology across its operations [1] Group 1: Partnership and Offerings - Customers will soon be able to purchase a variety of items, including apparel, consumables, entertainment, and food products, through Gemini's browser or mobile app, with Walmart managing the orders [2] - The initial offerings will not include fresh, frozen, or marketplace items, but the selection is expected to expand over time [4] Group 2: AI Integration and Consumer Experience - The partnership signifies a shift from traditional search methods, with Walmart focusing on anticipating customer needs rather than just responding to shopping queries [3] - AI is increasingly influencing consumer shopping habits, with Walmart also collaborating with OpenAI to enhance shopping experiences through platforms like ChatGPT [5] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Other retailers, such as Target Corp., are also forming partnerships to integrate AI into their operations, indicating a broader trend in the retail industry towards AI adoption for improving customer experiences and operational efficiency [6]

Core Insights - The current economy is not as robust as it appears, with stock market gains concentrated among a few companies, leading to a divergence in performance [1][3][5] - The average American is experiencing a decline in wealth due to rising prices from inflation and a slowing job market influenced by artificial intelligence [1][2] Company Performance - The "Magnificent Seven" companies—Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla—reported a 14.9% earnings growth in Q3 2025, significantly outpacing the S&P 500 average [3][4] - In contrast, the remaining 493 companies in the S&P 500 only achieved a 6.7% earnings growth, indicating a slowdown in broader market performance [4][5] Market Dynamics - The Magnificent Seven account for approximately 33% of the total value of the S&P 500, raising concerns about market stability if any of these companies underperform [6] - J.P. Morgan forecasts a 20% earnings per share (EPS) growth for the Magnificent Seven in 2026, compared to the S&P 500's projected EPS growth of 13% to 15% [6] Risk Assessment - There are concerns about a potential stock market bubble, as the market's performance is heavily reliant on a small number of high-valuation companies [7]

Core Insights - Walmart and Google are collaborating to integrate Google's AI assistant Gemini into Walmart's shopping experience, enhancing product discovery and purchasing for customers [1][2] - The partnership was announced at the National Retail Federation's Big Show, with plans for the feature to launch first in the U.S. before expanding internationally [2] - This collaboration is part of Walmart's broader strategy to adapt to changing consumer behaviors, particularly the increasing use of AI chatbots for shopping [3][4] Group 1: Partnership Details - The collaboration aims to create a seamless shopping experience that is more intuitive and personalized for customers [4] - Walmart previously partnered with OpenAI's ChatGPT to implement an "Instant Checkout" feature, allowing purchases directly through the AI chatbot [3] - Walmart's own AI chatbot, Sparky, is also part of its digital strategy to enhance customer engagement [4] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The shift towards AI-driven commerce is seen as a significant evolution in retail, with Walmart positioning itself as a leader in this transition [4] - Walmart's digital strategy is evolving to meet customers earlier in their shopping journey, leveraging AI to enhance product discovery [4] - The impact of AI on the workforce is a concern for Walmart, as it is the largest private employer in the U.S., with leadership acknowledging that AI will transform job roles across the company [5]