Core Viewpoint - Hesai Technology (NASDAQ: HSAI; HKEX: 2525) will deepen its partnership with Xiaomi Auto as a core strategic supplier from 2026 to 2027, continuing to provide support and services [2] Group 1: Partnership and Business Growth - Xiaomi is not only a significant business partner for Hesai but also an important shareholder, having led a $374 million Series D funding round in 2021, which bolstered Hesai's R&D and market expansion [2] - Since Xiaomi Auto's market entry, Hesai has been its exclusive partner for LiDAR technology, contributing to the successful launches of models like SU7 and YU7, enhancing the commercialization of smart driving technology [2] - Hesai has established itself as a leading player in the global LiDAR industry, with products widely used in advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) for passenger and commercial vehicles, autonomous vehicles, and various intelligent robotic applications [2] Group 2: Market Penetration and Client Base - In the ADAS sector, Hesai's LiDAR has become a standard for safety, securing mass production contracts for over 120 models from 24 major manufacturers, with deliveries planned from 2025 to 2027 [3] - Key clients include top-tier automotive manufacturers such as a leading European OEM, a global electric vehicle sales champion, and several prominent Chinese brands [3] Group 3: Robotics Sector Expansion - The robotics sector is experiencing explosive growth, with Hesai positioning itself in this emerging market [4] - In the lawnmower robot segment, Hesai's JT series achieved over 100,000 units delivered within five months, setting a global record [4] - Collaborations in various robotic applications include partnerships with companies like Yushu Technology for robotic dogs and multiple firms in mobile/commercial robotics [4] Group 4: Financial Performance - In 2024, Hesai achieved revenue of 2.08 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 42.3% from 2021 to 2024 [5] - The company has seen its annual delivery volume double for four consecutive years, becoming the first and only publicly listed LiDAR company to achieve profitability and positive cash flow for the entire year [5] - The co-founder and chief scientist of Hesai emphasized the role of AI in the upcoming fourth industrial revolution, indicating the company's commitment to providing new core technologies and products for this era [5]

Group 1 - Hesai Technology will deepen its partnership with Xiaomi Auto from 2026 to 2027, continuing to serve as a core strategic supplier [1] - Xiaomi is both an important business partner and a significant shareholder of Hesai Technology [1] - Xiaomi Group led a Series D financing round for Hesai Technology in 2021, raising an amount of $374 million [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hesai Technology will continue to deepen its partnership with Xiaomi Auto as a core strategic supplier from 2026 to 2027, providing ongoing support and services [1] Company Collaboration - Xiaomi is not only a significant business partner for Hesai Technology but also an important shareholder [1] - Xiaomi Group led Hesai Technology's Series D financing in 2021, raising $374 million, which has supported the company's technology development and market expansion [1]

Group 1 - Hesai Technology, a lidar research and manufacturing company, will continue to deepen its partnership with Xiaomi Automotive as a core strategic supplier from 2026 to 2027 [1] - Xiaomi is not only an important business partner for Hesai but also a significant shareholder, having led a Series D financing round in 2021 amounting to $374 million, which supported the company's technology development and market expansion [1]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on leading domestic generative large model companies such as iFlytek, AI hardware companies like Hikvision, Hongsoft Technology, and Hesai, as well as companies like Maifushi that can enhance paid rates and ARPU values [2] Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in AI models, with Alibaba launching seven new models at the 2025 Yunqi Conference, enhancing performance and efficiency [4][11] - The overall operating strength in the second half of the year is expected to improve compared to the first half, driven by low baselines and accelerated technology implementation [11] - The report identifies high certainty investment directions in AI, including emerging hardware for edge AI, software for C-end markets, enterprise services, and large model deployments for G-end clients [11] Summary by Sections 1.1 Computer Industry Insights - The AI industry chain is experiencing high demand in computing power and software, with significant year-over-year growth in AI model bidding amounts [12] - The laser radar sector maintains high demand, with a notable increase in installation volumes for ADAS [12] 1.2 Subsector Insights - High demand sectors include AI computing power and laser radar, while sectors like industrial software and medical IT are facing some pressure [12] - The report anticipates steady growth in software outsourcing, quantum computing, and data elements, with a positive outlook for education IT and security sectors [12] Market Performance Review - From September 22 to September 26, 2025, the computer industry index rose by 0.61%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.62 percentage points [14] - The top five performing companies in the computer sector during this period included Pinming Technology and Zhongwei Electronics [15] Upcoming Key Events - Significant upcoming events include the 2025 Industrial AI Co-Promotion Conference and OpenAI's Developer Conference, which may present investment opportunities in related sectors [26]

Investment Rating - The report rates the automotive industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The adjustment of the vehicle replacement policy will slightly weaken demand, but the reduction in vehicle purchase tax will promote early purchases, leading to a competitive demand scenario in Q4. As of September 10, 2025, the number of applications for vehicle replacement reached 8.3 million, indicating a significant policy-driven effect. Despite the adjustments in the replacement policy, the pressure from the tax reduction is expected to encourage consumers to purchase new energy vehicles earlier. The report forecasts that China's new energy vehicle sales will reach 16.25 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 26% [2][18]. Monthly Focus - The adjustment of the vehicle replacement policy has increased application difficulty. Since June, applications for vehicle replacement have been suspended due to the exhaustion of funds, but recent funding has led to adjustments in the policy across various regions. The adjustments mainly include changes in application methods and subsidy standards, with some regions reducing the subsidy amount per vehicle [14][15]. - There is a significant funding gap for Q4, as the distribution of funds does not account for seasonal consumption patterns. The central government will allocate 69 billion yuan for Q4, which is the same as Q3, but the demand for vehicle consumption is typically stronger in the second half of the year, leading to an amplified funding gap for Q4 [16][17]. Key Data Tracking - In August, the sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 27%. The penetration rate for new energy vehicles was 49%, remaining stable compared to the previous month. However, the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) experienced a decline for two consecutive months, primarily due to pressure on sales from major manufacturers [20][28]. - The report highlights that commercial vehicles and exports continue to maintain high growth rates, with new energy commercial vehicle sales in August reaching 70,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 52% [34][35]. - The report also notes that the export of new energy vehicles has been robust, with August exports reaching 224,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 104% [46][48]. Industry and Company Changes - The report indicates progress in the overseas production capacity of automotive companies, with several manufacturers establishing production bases in regions like Brazil and Austria. Additionally, companies like Chery and HeSai have listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange, while Dongfeng Group plans to privatize and spin off its Lantu brand to maintain its listing status [3][45].

Core Insights - The laser radar industry is transitioning from technological breakthroughs to competition for application scenarios, with companies racing to establish their presence in the market before it solidifies [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Major laser radar manufacturers are announcing significant orders and partnerships to capture the autonomous driving market, particularly in the Robotaxi sector [3][4]. - Hesai Technology has secured a $40 million overseas order and strategic partnerships for its laser radar products, indicating a clear production timeline with expected mass production by 2026 [3][4]. - The market share of leading companies in the vehicle-mounted auxiliary driving sector is closely contested, with Hesai, Huawei, and Suteng JuChuang holding 33.0%, 30.2%, and 27.4% respectively, showing a competitive landscape [5]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The industry consensus is shifting towards equipping L3 and L4 autonomous driving solutions with multiple laser radars, enhancing the perception capabilities of autonomous vehicles [3]. - Suteng JuChuang is focusing on digital high-line laser radar and has integrated its products with NVIDIA's DRIVE platform, aiming for mass production by the end of the year [4]. Group 3: Strategic Collaborations - Companies are forming strategic partnerships to enhance their market positions, with Hesai collaborating with Motional and others to supply laser radars for Robotaxi models [3][4]. - Suteng JuChuang has established collaborations with multiple Robotaxi companies, including a significant partnership with Didi Autonomous Driving, targeting mass production by 2025 [4]. Group 4: Expansion into New Markets - The competition is expanding beyond passenger vehicles into commercial vehicles, with companies like Tudatong targeting the autonomous truck market and forming partnerships for mass production [5][6]. - The growth in the robotic sector is notable, with Hesai and Suteng JuChuang launching products specifically for applications like lawn mowing, indicating a diversification of their product offerings [6].

Core Viewpoint - Hesai (HSAI.US) shares rose over 2% to $29.86, driven by a Goldman Sachs report predicting accelerated adoption of lidar technology in China and large-scale production by global automakers by 2026-2027, with an expected shipment of 3 million ADAS lidar units overseas by 2030 [1] Group 1: Company Insights - Goldman Sachs forecasts that by 2030, overseas ADAS customers will contribute 10% of Hesai's shipments, 20% of its revenue, and 23% of its gross profit, with a gross margin 10 percentage points higher than domestic products [1] - The target price for Hesai has been raised from $26.3 to $36, with a "Buy" rating assigned [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The report highlights the rapid proliferation of lidar technology in the Chinese market, indicating a significant shift in the automotive industry towards advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) [1] - The anticipated large-scale production of lidar units by 2026-2027 is expected to reshape the competitive landscape in the automotive sector [1]

Summary of Hesai Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hesai Group (HSAI/2525.HK) - **Industry**: LiDAR solutions for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and autonomous vehicles Key Points Market Potential and Financial Projections - **Overseas ADAS Contribution**: By 2030E, overseas ADAS opportunities are expected to account for 25% of Hesai's profit, with overseas ADAS LiDAR volume projected to reach 3 million units, similar to China's volume in 2025E [1][12] - **Revenue Forecast**: Hesai's revenue is forecasted to reach RMB 14 billion and net profit RMB 3 billion by 2030E, with a net margin of 21% [1][22] - **Target Price Increase**: The 12-month ADR target price has been raised to US$36 (previously US$26.3), and the H-share target price is set at HK$281, implying 24% and 23% upside respectively [2][59] Long-term Valuation Methodology - **Valuation Methodology**: Transitioning to a long-term valuation approach of 20X P/E on 2030E EPS, discounted back to 2026E with an 11% cost of equity [2][47] - **Net Profit Estimates**: Net profit estimates for 2026E-2027E have been increased by 11%-17% due to higher expected LiDAR penetration and mass production evidence from overseas OEMs [2][46] LiDAR Market Dynamics - **Mass Production Timeline**: Expectation for overseas mass production of LiDAR-equipped vehicles to commence in 2026E/2027E, particularly among European OEMs [3][11] - **Design Wins**: Hesai has secured design wins from a top European OEM for a multi-year program, with mass production starting on premium models in 2026 and mid-end models in 2027 [11][15] Competitive Landscape - **Cost Advantage**: Hesai is positioned with a strong cost advantage due to mature mass-production capabilities, which is expected to enhance its competitiveness in the overseas market [15][22] - **Market Share Goals**: Hesai aims to capture 33% of the overseas market share by 2030E, with projected sales volume contributions of 5,000 to 1 million units from 2026E to 2030E [18][22] Risks and Challenges - **Adoption Risks**: Potential slower adoption of LiDAR technology in both domestic and overseas markets could hinder growth [53][54] - **Intensified Competition**: Increased competition from other LiDAR suppliers, particularly Huawei and Robosense, may impact Hesai's ability to secure future design wins [56] - **Pricing Pressure**: Ongoing price competition among OEMs could exert pressure on Hesai's pricing and margins [56] - **Policy Risks**: Hesai's designation as a "Chinese Military Company" by the US Department of Defense poses potential risks to its business operations and partnerships with global OEMs [56] Financial Performance - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenue growth of 63% in 2025E and 52% in 2026E, with a significant increase in net income expected [57][60] - **Gross Margin Expectations**: Anticipated gross margin of approximately 40% for overseas ADAS, compared to 30% domestically [22][23] Conclusion - **Investment Thesis**: Hesai is positioned to benefit from the accelerating adoption of LiDAR in the NEV market and overseas ADAS opportunities, with a strong growth outlook supported by new design wins and product launches [60][62]

来源：格隆汇APP 禾赛(HSAI.US)盘前涨超2%，报29.67美元。消息面上，摩根士丹利发布研报称，中国自动驾驶出租车 的车队规模与运营区域持续扩大。同时，全球自动驾驶出租车的竞赛已进入新阶段，成为推动中国向 L4+级自动驾驶发展的强大催化剂。该行预计，2030年L4+级自动驾驶计程车将占中国出租车或共用出 行车队总规模的8%。该行认为，在当前行业竞赛中，具有可扩展产品销售能力的头部硬体制造商，如 禾赛，将受惠于配置升级的加速。(格隆汇) ...