Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley strategist Denny Galindo indicates that Bitcoin is currently in the "autumn" phase of its four-year cycle, suggesting it is a good time for investors to take profits [1][2] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Market Phase**: Bitcoin is in the "autumn" stage, which is characterized as a period for profit-taking before a potential downturn [1][2] - **Market Warning**: There is a warning that the market may soon enter the "winter" phase, indicating a price decline [1][2] - **Technical Indicators**: Bitcoin's price has recently fallen below the critical technical indicator of the 365-day moving average, which is viewed as a bearish signal [1][2] - **Liquidity Sources**: The inflow of liquidity from sources such as stablecoins and ETFs has shown signs of stagnation [1][2]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley suggests that it is time for investors to take profits in the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, as it has entered the "fall season" of its four-year market cycle, which historically precedes a potential downturn [2][5] - CCN's analysis indicates a more complex relationship between Bitcoin prices and U.S. money supply, suggesting that the current market dynamics may not be solely liquidity-driven [4][5] Morgan Stanley Outlook - Denny Galindo from Morgan Stanley Wealth Management states that Bitcoin is currently in the "fall season" of its market cycle, a period when investors typically cash out before a potential crypto winter [2][5] - Historical patterns indicate a "three-up, one-down" rhythm in Bitcoin's price cycles, suggesting that the current rally may soon lead to consolidation or decline [3] CCN's Data Analysis - CCN analyst Valdrin Tahiri highlights inconsistencies in the correlation between U.S. money supply and Bitcoin prices, noting that both fell during the 2022-2023 bear market [4][5] - The analysis shows that in the 2018-2019 downturn, Bitcoin's price dropped despite an expanding money supply, while the 2020 bull market aligned with a surge in liquidity [6] Technical Outlook - Tahiri's technical analysis indicates caution, as Bitcoin's monthly chart has shown a bearish candlestick formation and a breakdown from an ascending wedge pattern, historically signaling the end of an uptrend [7] - The completion of a five-wave advance since early 2023 suggests that the upward leg of the cycle may be complete, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [8]

Morgan Stanley has integrated Corastone, a transaction-processing platform backed by KKR & Co., into its wealth management technology stack, reported Bloomberg. This platform will digitise investor onboarding and automate validation steps that previously relied on manual paperwork. Corastone uses blockchain-based infrastructure to centralise documentation and standardise data exchange between distributors and fund administrators. With the integration, Morgan Stanley aims to speed up subscriptions and re ...

Morgan Stanley analysts were not about to be left out of Wall Street’s private market gold rush as companies with mind-boggling valuations like OpenAI and SpaceX put off public listings. On Tuesday, the investment banking giant launched a landing page within its research portal dedicated exclusively to private companies, according to an internal memo sent out by the firm’s global director of research, Katy Huberty, and shared with The Daily Upside. The page will “spotlight the innovators and trends that a ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the market is shifting from the political deadlock to the release of delayed economic data and its impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December, following the anticipated end of the U.S. government shutdown [1]. Economic Data Release Timeline - Morgan Stanley predicts that once the government resumes operations, delayed economic data will begin to be released, with significant delays expected due to the shutdown covering the entire month of October [1][5]. - Key data such as September employment and inflation (PCE), retail sales, and some trade and manufacturing indicators are expected to be available before the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 9-10 [5][6]. - The September employment report is anticipated to be released on November 19, followed by September retail sales and PPI on November 26, and the third-quarter GDP on December 5 [3][4]. Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - Despite the data delays, Morgan Stanley maintains its core view that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in December, driven by weak labor demand and rising unemployment [6]. - The report forecasts that non-farm payrolls will increase by only 50,000 in September, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%, and expected to rise to 4.5% in October and November [6]. Market Risks and Reactions - Investors face asymmetric risks where "good news" could turn into "bad news" for the market, as the Federal Reserve will rely heavily on incoming data to guide its decisions [7]. - If economic data is weak, it may not lead to significant market volatility unless there is a sharp economic downturn [8]. - Conversely, strong employment data could challenge the prevailing narrative of rate cuts, prompting a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's policy path and potentially pressuring risk assets [8].

Core Insights - The focus of the market is shifting from the political deadlock of the U.S. government shutdown to the release of delayed economic data and its implications for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December [1][5]. Economic Data Release Timeline - Morgan Stanley predicts that once the government resumes operations, delayed economic data will be released, with significant delays expected due to the shutdown covering the entire month of October [1][2]. - Key data releases are projected as follows: - September Employment Report: November 19, 2025 [3][4]. - September Retail Sales and PPI: November 26, 2025 [3][4]. - Q3 GDP: December 5, 2025 [3][4]. - October Employment Report: December 8, 2025 [3][4]. Federal Reserve's December Meeting - The Federal Reserve is expected to have access to critical data, including September employment, inflation (PCE), and retail sales, before its meeting on December 9-10 [5]. - Despite data delays, Morgan Stanley maintains its forecast for a 25 basis point rate cut in December, driven by weak labor demand and rising unemployment [6]. Asymmetric Risks for Investors - Investors face asymmetric risks where "good news" could turn into "bad news" for the market, particularly if strong economic data challenges the prevailing narrative of rate cuts [7]. - If employment data unexpectedly improves, it may force a reevaluation of the Fed's interest rate path, potentially leading to market adjustments [7].

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley has launched a dedicated private company research page to cater to the rising interest of investors in high-growth startups [1] Company Developments - The initiative reflects a strategic move by Morgan Stanley to enhance its research capabilities in the private company sector [1] - This launch is indicative of a broader trend where investment firms are increasingly focusing on private companies due to their growth potential [1]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley has launched a dedicated research product focused on private companies to address the growing interest from investors in unlisted startups [1] - The new page on the research portal will feature reports discussing the impact of private companies on their public market competitors and individual company research [1] - The initiative is part of a strategic need to enhance private company coverage and expand thematic leadership within the research department, which is a top priority for the upcoming year [1] Summary by Categories Company Strategy - Morgan Stanley aims to enhance its focus on private companies as a strategic necessity, indicating a shift in research priorities [1] - The bank plans to recruit based on these strategic priorities to strengthen its research capabilities [1] Market Trends - There is an increasing interest from investors in private companies, particularly in the context of venture capital activities [1] - The new research product will include multimedia content and a series focused on venture capital activities, reflecting current market trends [1] Competitive Landscape - Morgan Stanley joins competitors like JPMorgan and Citigroup in providing research on private companies, highlighting the competitive nature of this segment [1] - The initiative underscores the importance of understanding the dynamics between private and public companies in the current investment landscape [1]

Strategic Initiatives - Morgan Stanley is adopting technology backed by KKR [1] - The technology aims to facilitate transactions for alternative asset managers [1] - The goal is to expand access to high-net-worth individuals [1]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank's Chief Investment Officer for emerging markets indicates that the dollar remains attractive for arbitrage due to the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate cuts, but there is uncertainty regarding the policy path next year, especially if the new Fed chair adjusts the rate cut pace [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the onset of a Fed rate cut cycle may fuel asset bubbles, with credit spreads recently widening from 2.76% to 3.15%, reflecting a decrease in risk appetite. Tech investment spending is nearing its peak, with the five major tech companies expected to spend $349 billion in capital expenditures by 2025 [2] - The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) cautions that President Trump's proposed "tariff dividend" of at least $2,000 per person will significantly increase the deficit, potentially adding $6 trillion over ten years, which is double the expected tariff revenue during the same period [2] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley notes that the end of quantitative tightening (QT) by the Fed does not equate to a restart of quantitative easing (QE), as it involves optimizing asset structure without expanding the balance sheet. The key factor affecting market duration and liquidity is the U.S. Treasury's debt issuance strategy, not the Fed's bond-buying actions [1] - Bank of America highlights that the surge in AI capital expenditures and off-balance-sheet financing is masking future profit pressures, with the actual lifespan of AI hardware being only 3-5 years, posing a depreciation risk that may impact financial reports post-2026 [1] - JPMorgan warns that global investment in AI data centers will require at least $5 trillion over the next five years, far exceeding the capacity of any single financing channel. The investment-grade bond market can provide $1.5 trillion, while there remains a $1.4 trillion gap that will need to be filled by private credit and government funding [1]