智通财经APP获悉，美国银行周三指出，在经历了一轮由关税引发的市场波动后，最糟糕的时期可能已 经过去，银行股或将迎来跑赢大盘时刻。分析师易卜拉欣·普纳瓦拉(Ebrahim Poonawala)在给客户的报告 中写道："关税确实带来了意外冲击，但'最混乱时刻'可能已成为过去。"他看好的龙头股包括摩根大通 (JPM.US)、富国银行(WFC.US)、高盛(GS.US)、纽约梅隆银行(BK.US)和摩根士丹利(MS.US)。 他指出，今年以来，大型银行股的股价表现和每股收益(EPS)预期修正均优于标普500指数。 普纳瓦拉的看涨观点基于其"3R"理论——利率(Rates)、监管(Regulations)、活动反弹(Rebounding activity)，这三大支柱目前"根基更加稳固"。 报告同时指出，地区银行股的表现和盈利预期修正则落后于整体股市。尽管亨廷顿银行(HBAN.US)、 五三银行(FITB.US)和KeyCorp(KEY.US)等地区银行仍具吸引力，但它们仍需催化剂，包括市场认可的 并购活动或贷款业务的回暖。"尽管地区银行目前表现滞后，但我们认为当前的利率环境和相对健康的 贷款活动为其提供了上行潜力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have increased by 27% this year, while the US dollar index has decreased by 9%, indicating a strong negative correlation between the two assets [1][7]. Group 1: Historical Context - The negative correlation between gold and the US dollar index has reached -96% this year, significantly higher than the average of -39% since 1990 [2]. - Since 1990, there have only been seven instances of a negative correlation exceeding -95%, making the current situation historically rare [3]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - During periods of extreme negative correlation, the average rolling return for gold over five months has been 8%, compared to an overall average of 3% since 1990 [6]. - In the seven historical periods of strong negative correlation, five showed a pattern of a declining dollar and rising gold prices, supported by factors such as ETF inflows, safe-haven demand, and central bank purchases [6]. Group 3: Future Projections - Morgan Stanley predicts that the US dollar index will fall to 91 by Q2 2026, which could lead to gold prices reaching $3,800 per ounce, surpassing the previous target of $3,500 [10]. - The current strong demand from central banks and ETF inflows is providing support for gold prices [7]. Group 4: Demand Structure - Despite the historical correlation suggesting gold price increases, such periods typically last for a short duration, with the longest being 44 days in 2007 [11]. - Recent trends indicate a slowdown in ETF inflows due to competition from other asset classes, and jewelry demand has dropped to its weakest level since 2020, necessitating observation of consumer adaptation to higher prices [11].

June 2, 2025 09:14 PM GMT Global In the Flow May Recap Performance – Equities rally, rates sell off, dollar depreciates Equity markets rallied in May, with the S&P (+6.3%) and TOPIX (+5.0%) outperforming in DM markets. Technology (+10.3%) and communication services (+8.1%) outperformed among global equity sectors, while healthcare (-3.7%) lagged. Rates sold off across DM markets. The dollar depreciated against most DM currencies, with the DXY down 0.1% last month. In commodities, WTI Crude (+5.3%) outperfor ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the potential for Asia to achieve a sustainable rebalancing, suggesting that while the current account surplus may narrow, the consumption-to-GDP ratio is unlikely to change significantly, indicating that true and lasting rebalancing may not be achieved [2][8][35] Summary by Sections Current Account Trends - The report details the trends in bilateral current account balances between Asia and the US, highlighting that Asia's trade surplus with the US reached USD 760 billion, accounting for 55% of the US trade deficit [7][12] - It predicts that Asia's current account surplus as a percentage of GDP will narrow, primarily due to a slowdown in trade cycles and potential increases in purchases from the US [7][34] Economic Structure and Growth Model - Asia's persistent current account surplus reflects a manufacturing-driven growth model, with high savings relative to investment [8][24] - The report notes that Asia has maintained a current account surplus for 35 consecutive years, with a historical high of USD 1.1 trillion in Q1 2025, representing 4.1% of GDP [12][13] Investment Position - Asia's international investment position has grown to USD 45 trillion, surpassing both the US and Eurozone [49][50] - The report indicates that since 2018, Asia's holdings in US securities have increased by USD 2.8 trillion, now totaling USD 8.6 trillion, with the share of US assets in Asia's portfolio rising from 37% to 41% [65][72] Future Projections - The report forecasts a slight narrowing of the current account surplus to USD 0.9 trillion (3.1% of GDP) in 2025, down from USD 1.0 trillion (3.6% of GDP) in 2024 [34][36] - It emphasizes that the expected narrowing of the current account surplus should not be viewed as a sustainable rebalancing, as structural changes in savings and consumption patterns are not anticipated [35][66]

June 2, 2025 01:40 PM GMT GLOBAL CREDIT STRATEGY Global Credit: What We're Watching M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H US Investment Grade: Spreads tightened by 3bp last week, resulting in excess return of 32bp. Curves bull flattened, and BBBs outperformed. Media, telecoms and retail delivered the best performance while basic industry, automotive and services lagged. IG funds saw $1.9bn in inflows for the week (+$12.6bn YTD). Weekly supply reached $24bn, raising YTD issuance to $866bn (+7.4% YoY). US ...

June 2, 2025 02:03 PM GMT Cross-Asset Spotlight | Global M Update Signals, Flows & Key Data Ariana Gamero Strategist Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, Morgan Stanley Research forecasts; Note: Returns are total returns, except for credit, where we forecast excess returns versus government bonds. Commodity returns are calculated relative to futures to account for carry. Volatility is 10y realized vol. All currency returns are shown as XXXUSD return. *Currency forecasts shown for USDXXX. Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Serena ...

June 2, 2025 09:34 PM GMT M Morgan Stanley Research: Key Forecasts Next 12 Months Outlook: Our High-Conviction Calls Skewed to the Downside: The broad imposition of tariffs by the US is a structural shock to the global trading order. The tariffs themselves and the associated uncertainty will weigh notably on growth, but given the strong starting point coming into the year, we do not expect a global recession. Despite recent tariff announcements, we still expect baseline tariff rates to remain the same as ou ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The U.S. nuclear power plan under the Trump administration aims to significantly increase nuclear capacity to 400 GW by 2050, which is four times the current operational capacity of 100 GW [2][3] - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on uranium prices, citing long-term demand support from the nuclear revival theme in the U.S. [1][2] - The ambitious nuclear capacity goal will require the construction of 20 new reactors annually, a significant challenge given the historical context of U.S. nuclear development [3][7] Group 2: Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - The U.S. nuclear fuel supply chain is heavily reliant on imports, with two-thirds of enrichment and conversion needs depending on foreign sources [8] - By 2030, U.S. mines are projected to meet about 40% of domestic uranium demand, with Canada expected to fill much of the gap [8] - The construction of small modular reactors (SMRs) may be expedited by recent executive orders, with potential deployment by the end of 2030 [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street investment banks are strengthening their view that the US dollar will weaken further due to interest rate cuts, economic slowdown, and President Trump's trade and tax policies [1][2][3] Group 1: Predictions on Dollar Value - Morgan Stanley predicts that the dollar index will decline by approximately 9% to 91 by this time next year [2] - Morgan Stanley's global macro strategy head states that the dollar is expected to drop to levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic by mid-next year [1] - Pioneer Investments anticipates a 10% depreciation of the Bloomberg Dollar Index within the next 12 months [3] Group 2: Currency Comparisons - Morgan Stanley suggests that the euro, yen, and Swiss franc will be the biggest beneficiaries of the dollar's decline [2] - The euro reached a five-week high against the dollar, peaking at 1.1450, with expectations to rise to around 1.25 next year [2] - The British pound is projected to strengthen from approximately 1.35 to 1.45 against the dollar due to "high carry" returns and lower trade risk [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has seen a decline as US factory activity shrank for the third consecutive month [1] - Investors are reassessing their risk exposure to US assets, leading to increased hedging ratios, which may contribute to downward pressure on the dollar over the next 12 months [1] - Upcoming US labor market indicators, including the May non-farm payroll report, will be closely monitored to gauge potential changes in Federal Reserve policy and its impact on the dollar [2]

面对隐藏在《大漂亮法案》中的第899条税收条款，大摩警告华尔街面临史上最大"资本税"冲击。 华尔街见闻此前提及，在美国众议院此前通过的《大漂亮法案》税收与支出议案中，一条标题为"针对不公平外国税收的执法补救措施"的条款提出，对于被美 国认定存在"歧视性"税收政策的国家，将大幅提高该国企业和个人在美投资的税率。 如果参议院未能澄清适用范围，市场可能面临美债收益率曲线陡化、美元走弱及信用利差扩大的多重冲击。 万亿美元级别的税收"核弹"即将引爆 报告指出，899条款的杀伤力在于其"递增式惩罚税"设计：对被认定存在"歧视性"税收政策国家的投资者，首先提高5个百分点税率，然后每年再增加5个百分 点，最高可达20个百分点的额外税负。 并且，该条款涵盖的目标极其广泛，包括美国被动收入、房地产投资、商业利润，甚至可能波及外国央行和主权财富基金——这些此前享受免税待遇的"特权阶 层"。 尽管目前文本暗示固定收益资产可能不在范围内，但专家们仍对"金融资产"是否会被纳入"实际资产"范畴存在分歧。 报告数据显示，截至2024年12月，美国对外国实体的总负债高达39.8万亿美元，占名义GDP的134%。其中，证券持有占83%，长期证券 ...