Press release Regulated information Brussels, September 26, 2025, 17:45 CEST In line with Belgian transparency legislation (Law of May 2, 2007), Morgan Stanley recently sent to Solvay the following transparency notifications indicating that they crossed the threshold of 3%. Here is a summary of the notifications: Date on which the threshold was crossed Voting rights after the transaction Equivalent financial instruments after the transaction Total September 18, 2025 0.00% 3.13% 3.13% September 22, ...

Market Overview & Economic Outlook - Market experienced minor declines, around 1% or less, but this reflects recent market trends [1] - The economy maintains significant momentum, supported by GDP revisions [2] - AI super cycle continues to drive growth in mega-cap tech stocks [2] - A consolidation period is expected, but the strength of the economy and the AI sector suggest it won't be a major correction [3] Investment Strategy & Sector Focus - Today is generally a good day to invest for long-term goals like retirement, savings, and college [3] - For those nearing retirement, a more conservative approach focusing on dividend growth or dividend income stocks is advisable [4] - Healthcare sector is currently undervalued, trading at its lowest relative weight in the S&P since 1994, with big pharma trading at approximately a 30% discount to the S&P [8][10] - Healthcare sector is expected to be positively transformed by AI [11] Bull Market & Historical Context - Historically, bull markets have an average length of about 8 years; the current bull market is approximately 2 and a half years old since the Chat GPT lows in October/November 2022 [5] - The NASDAQ is trading about 12% above its 200-day moving average, which is less extended compared to the technology sector in 1999 [6] Risk Factors & Confidence Level - Geopolitical risks, particularly in Eastern Europe and Ukraine, are concerning and could impact oil prices [14][15] - High confidence in avoiding a recession and limiting drawdowns to a maximum of 5-10% [16]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley is set to report its fiscal 2025 third-quarter earnings, with analysts expecting an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.03, reflecting an 8% increase from the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance - The bank has consistently outperformed Wall Street's profit estimates for the past four quarters, with the most recent EPS reported at $2.13, exceeding consensus by 10.4% [2][3]. - For fiscal 2025, earnings are projected to rise 11.5% to $8.86 per share, up from $7.95 in fiscal 2024, followed by an 8.1% increase in fiscal 2026, reaching $9.58 [3]. Stock Performance - Morgan Stanley's shares have increased approximately 55.3% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 Index, which returned 15.4%, and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund, which gained 19.4% [4]. - Despite strong second-quarter results, shares dipped nearly 1.3% due to a decline in investment banking revenue, which tempered investor enthusiasm [5]. Analyst Ratings - The overall rating for Morgan Stanley is "Moderate Buy," with 25 analysts covering the stock: six recommend "Strong Buy," three suggest "Moderate Buy," and 16 have issued a "Hold" [6]. - The current trading price is above the average analyst price target of $146.31, but the highest target of $165 indicates potential upside of approximately 3.8% from current levels [6].

花旗发表研究报告指，预期摩根士丹利第三季业绩强劲，有利的市场表现应可以促使稳健的财富管理业 绩；花旗又看到市场对大摩所有目光聚焦于30%税前利润率目标。考虑到背景，花旗认为大摩有可能达 成上述目标。花旗表示，虽然大摩第三季度税前利润率数字，主要取决于强劲市场表现驱动的费用收入 增长，但看到大摩在未来几个季度，将维持在29%范围，并在2027年底贷款渗透率、非咨询收入扩张 后，可持续超过30%。花旗最近与大摩管理层的会议后，对大摩建立的财富管理引擎印象更深，将其目 标价从130美元上调至155美元，评级"中性"。 ...

Core Insights - The wealth management industry is expected to experience significant consolidation, with an estimated 1,500 major transactions anticipated by the end of 2029, leading to about 20% of existing firms being acquired [2][4] - Analysts predict over 100 deals per year in wealth management through 2029, with estimates ranging from 120 to 150, excluding smaller transactions [4] - The total assets managed globally reached $135 trillion in 2024, marking a 13% year-over-year increase, while global financial wealth held by private households grew by 8% to $301 trillion [6] Industry Dynamics - The dealmaking activity in the registered investment advisor and asset management sectors, which began around 2020, is expected to intensify in the latter half of the decade [2] - The wealth and asset management industries may remain fragmented, but profitability is possible with a focused team and a limited client base, despite tighter revenue margins and rising costs due to technology and AI investments [3] - Clients in wealth management are increasingly seeking more comprehensive services, including multi- and single-family offices [3] Dealmaking Drivers - The consolidation in the industry is driven by four key factors: cutting costs through scale, expanding client segments and geographies, enhancing capabilities, and accessing capital for business funding [3] - A higher volume of dealmaking is anticipated among asset managers (60 to 90 deals per year) and alternative asset managers (80 to 120 deals per year) compared to previous years [5] - There is a decline in the number of new mutual fund or ETF managers annually, reflecting a broader trend in the industry [5]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's short position in Dongfang Electric Corporation's H-shares decreased from 2.28% to 1.61% as of September 22 [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report provides insights into various asset classes including equities, fixed income, currencies, and commodities, with a focus on market sentiment and positioning as of September 19, 2025. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Equity Market Forecasts**: - S&P 500 is forecasted to return -25.3% in a bear case, with a base case return of -1.3% and a bull case return of 9.2% [3] - MSCI Europe shows a bear case return of -24.3%, base case of 4.5%, and bull case of 21.2% [3] - Topix is projected to return -31.1% in a bear case, -5.7% in a base case, and 5.4% in a bull case [3] - MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) is expected to return -32.7% in a bear case, -8.1% in a base case, and 3.8% in a bull case [3] 2. **Currency Performance**: - JPY is expected to appreciate by 18.3% in a bear case, with a base case of 10.9% and a bull case of 0.5% [3] - EUR is forecasted to return -4.7% in a bear case, with a base case of 4.7% and a bull case of 9.0% [3] - GBP shows minimal change with a bear case of 0.4% and a bull case of 12.3% [3] 3. **Bond Market Insights**: - UST 10-year bonds are expected to yield 5.7% in a bear case, 10.2% in a base case, and 15.3% in a bull case [3] - UKT 10-year bonds forecast a bear case return of 8.0%, base case of 10.0%, and bull case of 17.4% [3] 4. **Commodity Market Trends**: - Brent crude oil is projected to return -23.1% in a bear case, with a base case of -7.8% and a bull case of 84.4% [3] - Gold is expected to return -21.4% in a bear case, -7.5% in a base case, and 10.9% in a bull case [3] 5. **Market Sentiment and Positioning**: - The Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) aggregates survey positioning, volatility, and momentum data to quantify market stress and sentiment [62] - Current sentiment shows a negative bias, indicating potential market stress [62] 6. **ETF Flows**: - US equities experienced a significant outflow of $19.8 billion over the past week, indicating a bearish sentiment [44] - In contrast, bonds saw inflows of $15.9 billion, suggesting a flight to safety among investors [44] Additional Important Insights - The Nikkei 225 index surpassed the 45,000 mark for the first time, indicating strong performance in the Japanese equity market [10][14] - The DXY index fell to its lowest level since March 2022, reflecting a weakening US dollar [10][19] - Bond volatility has dropped to a near four-year low, suggesting reduced uncertainty in the bond markets [10][13] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state and forecasts of various asset classes, market sentiment, and significant market movements.

Investment Rating - The report suggests a bearish outlook on the USD due to increasing Fed dovishness and contrasts with foreign central banks [63] Core Insights - The market pricing of Fed policy is expected to move well below the September 2024 low, with current market pricing remaining approximately 50 basis points above the economists' probability-weighted path [63] - The report indicates that the market-implied trough rate places little probability on a recession, suggesting a skew towards a more dovish Fed path [63] - US Treasury yields are anticipated to decline, with the term premium expected to remain range-bound [63] - The report highlights a tension between the Fed's focus on labor market weakness and the equity market's focus on future earnings improvements [63] - Credit markets are expected to see compelling all-in credit yields with good carry relative to cash and inflation [63] - Emerging Market (EM) sovereign credit is projected to have supportive technicals, with expectations of positive total returns driven by lower UST yields [63] Summary by Sections US Treasury and Fed Policy - The market-implied trough fed funds rate is projected to fall further, with current pricing suggesting a more hawkish Fed path than the baseline [9][63] - The report emphasizes that the Fed's dovish stance contrasts with foreign central banks, which may lead to a weaker USD [63] US Equities - The report notes a potential disconnect between the Fed's concerns over labor market data and the equity market's focus on improving earnings revisions and pricing power [63] Credit Markets - All-in credit yields are described as compelling, with a preference for the belly of the curve (5-10 years) in investment-grade (IG) for carry and roll-down strategies [37][63] - High-yield (HY) bonds are favored over floating-rate loans amid accelerating inflows and better price convexity [63] Emerging Market Sovereign Credit - The report suggests maintaining spread betas slightly lower than the benchmark, with a preference for BB bonds and a focus on specific countries like South Africa, Mexico, and Guatemala [61][63]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley has partnered with Zerohash to allow E*TRADE clients to trade popular cryptocurrencies starting in the first half of 2026 [1][7] - Initial offerings will include Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, with plans for a comprehensive wallet solution in the future [2][7] - The firm is developing an asset-allocation strategy for cryptocurrencies, with portfolio weights varying based on client objectives [3] Company Strategy - Morgan Stanley aims to integrate digitized assets, traditional assets, and cryptocurrencies into a unified ecosystem for clients [4] - The initiative is expected to enhance revenue through trading spreads, advisory fees, and future services like custody and tokenization [4][7] - The firm recognizes the opportunity to simplify the user experience for clients navigating the traditional finance and decentralized finance divide [4] Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Robinhood and Charles Schwab are also expanding their cryptocurrency offerings, with Robinhood generating significant revenue from its crypto business [5] - Schwab plans to introduce spot cryptocurrency trading by next year, indicating a competitive environment for Morgan Stanley [5] Performance Metrics - Over the past six months, Morgan Stanley's shares have increased by 28.4%, outperforming the industry growth of 26.1% [6]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley is recognized as one of the Best Retirement Stocks for a Dividend Stock Portfolio, appealing to conservative investors due to its strong dividend performance and strategic focus on wealth management and technology [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Morgan Stanley is an American multinational financial services company that provides a variety of services including wealth management, investment banking, and securities trading [2]. - The company has been emphasizing the expansion of its wealth management platform and leveraging technology to enhance client relationships [2]. Group 2: Strategic Priorities - Morgan Stanley's strategic priorities focus on five key areas: competitiveness against traditional banks and fintech, adapting to regulations, advancing technology, talent development, and maintaining risk controls [3]. - These initiatives are designed to attract new client assets, safeguard operations, and enhance returns, with strong asset growth and disciplined cost management being crucial for long-term objectives [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Value - The company has consistently returned value to shareholders through dividends, currently offering a quarterly dividend of $1.00 per share, which was raised by 8.1% in July [4]. - As of September 21, the stock has a dividend yield of 2.50% [4].