Core Viewpoint - Macquarie maintains a positive outlook on Pop Mart (09992) due to its capacity expansion supporting sales growth, keeping earnings forecasts unchanged and maintaining an "outperform" rating with a target price of HKD 470 [1] Group 1: Product Performance - The Valentine's Day limited edition blind box "Starry People Heartbeat" series launched by Pop Mart has been well-received, with the first batch selling out quickly [1] - The company operates a diversified product and IP portfolio, which allows for continuous product development and consumer interaction [1] Group 2: Revenue Contribution - It is expected that the contribution of the top two to six IPs to revenue will increase from 43% in 2025 to 48.6% this year [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Recent stock price adjustments are attributed to investor concerns over the slowdown of its U.S. market business, which Macquarie believes is an overreaction [1] - Following a significant stock price decline, timely stock buybacks could help boost investor confidence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrates strong confidence in its future development and stock price through recent share buybacks, with management repurchasing 1.9 million shares between January 19 and 21, 2023, of which 1.4 million shares have been canceled [2][3] Group 1: Share Buyback - The company announced a share buyback of 500,000 shares at a price of 192.97 yuan per share, representing 0.0373% of the existing shares [1] - Additionally, the company repurchased and canceled 1.4 million shares at a price of 179.60 yuan per share, accounting for 0.1042% of the total shares at that time [1] Group 2: Product Performance and IP Potential - Recent trends indicate that the company's new products, such as the PUCKY and Starry People series, have sold out on official websites and are experiencing significant price premiums on second-hand platforms, with hidden versions priced at 2-3 times and 3-6 times their original prices, respectively [3] - The company is optimistic about the potential for its IP to grow, especially during the upcoming Spring Festival, driven by popular products [3] Group 3: Financial Forecasts - The company has raised its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 12.02 billion, 17.05 billion, and 20.89 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 284.4%, 41.9%, and 22.6% [3][4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 35.62 billion, 51.25 billion, and 63.45 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 173.2%, 43.9%, and 23.8% [3][4] Group 4: Operational Efficiency - The company anticipates a gross margin exceeding 70% in the first half of 2025, with an expected gross margin of around 71% for 2025-2027 due to improved scale effects in overseas operations and supply chain optimization [4] - Sales expense ratios are projected to decrease to approximately 20-21% over the next three years, while management expense ratios are expected to decline to around 5-6% [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 319.85 [2][7]. Core Insights - The company has conducted two share buybacks, demonstrating confidence in its long-term growth logic. The buybacks occurred on January 19 and 21, 2026, costing HKD 251 million and HKD 96 million, respectively, for 140,000 and 50,000 shares at average prices of HKD 179.60 and HKD 192.98 per share [2]. - The financial projections indicate significant revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach HKD 13,038 million in 2024, growing to HKD 64,823 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 106.9% in 2024 and 23.4% in 2027 [2][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from HKD 3,125 million in 2024 to HKD 21,734 million in 2027, with a remarkable growth rate of 188.8% in 2024 and 24.4% in 2027 [2][8]. - The company is focusing on diversifying its IP matrix and enhancing its platform-based operational capabilities, which are expected to meet the growing demand in the collectible toy market [2][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million HKD) is forecasted as follows: 2024A: 13,038, 2025E: 37,195, 2026E: 52,533, 2027E: 64,823 [2][8]. - Net profit (in million HKD) is projected as follows: 2024A: 3,125, 2025E: 12,235, 2026E: 17,475, 2027E: 21,734 [2][8]. - Earnings per share (in HKD) are expected to rise from 2.33 in 2024 to 16.20 in 2027 [2][8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 84 in 2024 to 12 in 2027, indicating improved valuation as earnings grow [2][8].

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie's report indicates that Pop Mart's Valentine's Day limited edition blind box series has been well-received, with the first batch selling out quickly. The firm believes that Pop Mart's diverse product and IP portfolio will continue to drive consumer engagement and revenue growth, projecting that the contribution of its top two to six IPs to revenue will increase from 43% in 2025 to 48.6% this year [1]. Group 1 - The first batch of Pop Mart's Valentine's Day limited edition blind box series sold out rapidly, indicating strong consumer demand [1]. - Macquarie expects the revenue contribution from Pop Mart's top IPs to rise from 43% in 2025 to 48.6% in the current year, reflecting the company's effective product development and consumer interaction strategies [1]. - Recent stock price adjustments are attributed to investor concerns over the slowdown in Pop Mart's U.S. market operations, which Macquarie believes is an overreaction [1]. Group 2 - Macquarie maintains a "Outperform" rating for Pop Mart, with a target price of 470 HKD, citing optimism about production capacity expansion supporting sales growth [2]. - Citigroup has reiterated a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart, highlighting confidence in new product launches and share buybacks [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992.HK) with a target price of HKD 319.85 [2][7]. Core Insights - The company has conducted two share buybacks, demonstrating confidence in its long-term growth logic. The buybacks occurred on January 19 and 21, 2026, costing HKD 251 million and HKD 96 million, respectively, with average prices of HKD 179.60 and HKD 192.98 per share [2]. - The financial projections indicate significant revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach HKD 13,038 million in 2024, growing to HKD 64,823 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 106.9% in 2024 and 23.4% in 2027 [2][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from HKD 3,125 million in 2024 to HKD 21,734 million in 2027, with a remarkable growth rate of 188.8% in 2024 and 24.4% in 2027 [2][8]. - The report highlights the company's strong IP platform and diversified product matrix, which are expected to continue meeting the demand in the trendy toy market. The ability to sustain and innovate across various IPs is emphasized as a key strength [2][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million HKD) is forecasted as follows: - 2024: 13,038 - 2025: 37,195 - 2026: 52,533 - 2027: 64,823 [2][8] - Net profit (in million HKD) projections are: - 2024: 3,125 - 2025: 12,235 - 2026: 17,475 - 2027: 21,734 [2][8] - Earnings per share (in HKD) are expected to grow from 2.33 in 2024 to 16.20 in 2027 [2][8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 84 in 2024 to 12 in 2027, indicating improved valuation as earnings grow [2][8].

Core Viewpoint - The MOLLY 20th Anniversary Global Tour, organized by Pop Mart and artist Kenny Wong, celebrates the evolution of the MOLLY IP, highlighting its cultural significance and connection to the city of Hong Kong [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The first stop of the MOLLY 20th Anniversary Global Tour will take place in Hong Kong from January 24 to February 10, 2026, under the theme "A Constant Star" [1]. - The exhibition is supported by Octopus and the West Kowloon Cultural District, aiming to inject new charm into urban tourism through IP storytelling [1]. Group 2: MOLLY's Cultural Impact - Over the past two decades, MOLLY has witnessed significant technological advancements and cultural shifts, evolving from a local Hong Kong character to a global cultural icon [3]. - MOLLY serves as a bridge connecting the past and present, as well as art and urban life, embodying warmth and courage in a changing world [3]. Group 3: Exhibition Highlights - The exhibition features five chapters that chronologically narrate MOLLY's growth, including the initial story of her creation and the artistic process from concept to final product [4]. - It showcases a circular exhibition space displaying classic figures from 2016 onwards, allowing visitors to experience a "space adventure" with MOLLY [4]. Group 4: Artistic Contributions - The exhibition publicly reveals Kenny Wong's valuable sketches and original artworks since 2006, including a special piece created for the 20th anniversary titled "The Unchanging Star" [5]. - A documentary at the exhibition allows visitors to reconnect with MOLLY through Kenny's perspective, emphasizing her journey and future aspirations [5]. Group 5: Community Engagement - The exhibition includes a "MOLLY Charity Painting Activity" every weekend, with all proceeds donated to art education projects for special needs children, reflecting the IP's commitment to social responsibility [5]. - Kenny Wong has previously donated 1 million HKD for disaster recovery efforts in Hong Kong, adding a layer of warmth to the MOLLY brand [5].

Summary of Pop Mart International Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group (Ticker: 9992.HK) - **Industry**: China/Hong Kong Consumer - **Market Cap**: US$37,826 million - **Current Share Price**: HK$219.60 (as of January 23, 2026) - **Price Target**: HK$325.00, indicating a potential upside of 48% from the current price Key Points Sales and Product Performance - The new product series "Twinkle Twinkle" is expected to account for over 50% of Labubu sales in China in 2026, indicating strong market momentum [2][2] - Proactive supply ramping will allow Pop Mart to better meet demand surges, smoothing sales curves and capping resale premiums [2][2] - China accounts for 55-60% of group sales, with the market being undersupplied in the second half of 2025 [2][2] - Popular product restocking and new releases in the "Twinkle Twinkle" series present potential upside surprises in the Chinese market [2][2] Regional Market Insights - The Asia Pacific momentum is expected to continue, particularly in Japan, which is projected to be significantly larger than Southeast Asian markets in the long term [2][2] - The US and European offline markets are anticipated to be key growth drivers, while online sales will face a high base comparison in Q3 2026 [2][2] Investment Sentiment and Valuation - Pop Mart is viewed as a productive platform for various intellectual properties (IPs) to grow, suggesting that a surge in demand for specific IPs is not a prerequisite for stock ownership [2][2] - The strong growth of "Twinkle Twinkle" serves as a catalyst for momentum investors to reassess their investment thesis regarding Pop Mart [2][2] - Share buybacks have positively influenced investor sentiment, with notable buying interest from investors waiting for catalysts [2][2] Financial Projections - **Revenue Estimates**: - 2025: Rmb 37,890 million - 2026: Rmb 47,884 million - 2027: Rmb 58,076 million - **Net Income Estimates**: - 2025: Rmb 12,717 million - 2026: Rmb 15,424 million - 2027: Rmb 18,574 million - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2025: Rmb 9.59 - 2026: Rmb 11.63 - 2027: Rmb 14.00 - The current P/E ratio is 80.9, with projected ratios decreasing to 20.5 in 2025 and 16.9 in 2026 [3][3] Risks and Challenges - Upside risks include faster overseas growth, successful new product rollouts, and sustained momentum in China [2][2] - Downside risks involve a weak macroeconomic environment, uncertainties related to new products, and challenges in overseas expansion [2][2] Additional Insights - The plush toy "Crush on You" from the "Twinkle Twinkle" series sold out quickly on Tmall and Douyin, with significant unit sales indicating strong consumer interest [6][6] - Comparatively, the plush toy "Have a Good Run" sold 20,000+ units on its launch day, showcasing the competitive landscape of product launches [6][6] This summary encapsulates the key insights and financial projections for Pop Mart International Group, highlighting its market position, growth potential, and associated risks.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant increase in the popularity and price of the PUCKY "Electronic Wooden Fish" product from Pop Mart, which has led to a 20% rise in the company's stock price over a week [1] - The PUCKY "Electronic Wooden Fish" product, launched on January 15, features a unique electronic sound mechanism and is marketed with themes of good fortune, resulting in high demand and limited availability in stores [1] - The resale market for the PUCKY "Electronic Wooden Fish" has seen substantial price increases, with the hidden variant's market price rising from 99 yuan to 396 yuan, representing a threefold premium [1] Group 2 - Many consumers are actively seeking the PUCKY "Electronic Wooden Fish" product, with reports of long interactions with display items in stores due to the unavailability of stock [2] - Store employees have indicated uncertainty regarding restocking timelines for the popular PUCKY series, reflecting ongoing supply challenges [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6][22] Core Viewpoints - The management's recent share buybacks demonstrate confidence in the company's future and stock price [3][4] - The company's new product series, PUCKY and Starry People, have shown strong demand, with sold-out status on official platforms and significant price premiums on secondary markets, indicating potential for IP value enhancement during the upcoming holiday season [3][5] - The company is expected to see substantial profit growth, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 120.2 billion, 170.5 billion, and 208.9 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 284.4%, 41.9%, and 22.6% [3][10][15] Summary by Relevant Sections Share Buyback - The company announced a buyback of 500,000 shares at a price of 192.97 yuan per share and the cancellation of 1.4 million shares at 179.60 yuan per share, indicating a total buyback amount of approximately 347.9 million yuan [2][5] Product Performance - Recent trends show that the PUCKY and Starry People series have sold out on official websites, with price premiums on secondary markets ranging from 2-3 times for hidden versions and 70-200% for regular versions, suggesting strong market demand [3][5][9] Financial Projections - The company has revised its profit forecasts, expecting revenues of 356.2 billion, 512.5 billion, and 634.5 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 173.2%, 43.9%, and 23.8% [10][19] - The gross margin is projected to exceed 70% in the first half of 2025, with a steady gross margin of around 71% expected through 2027 [12][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6][3] Core Views - The management's recent share buybacks demonstrate confidence in the company's future and stock price [4][3] - The company's new product series, PUCKY and Starry People, have sold out on official platforms and are trading at significant premiums on secondary markets, indicating strong IP potential [3][5] - The company is expected to see substantial profit growth, with net profits projected to reach 12.02 billion, 17.05 billion, and 20.89 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 284.4%, 41.9%, and 22.6% respectively [3][10] Summary by Sections Share Buyback - The company announced a buyback of 500,000 shares at a price of 192.97 yuan per share and the cancellation of 1.4 million shares at 179.60 yuan per share, showing a total buyback of 3.47 billion yuan for 1.9 million shares [2][5] Product Performance - Recent trends show that the PUCKY and Starry People series have sold out on the official website, with hidden versions trading at premiums of 2-3 times and regular versions at 70-200% premiums [5][9] Financial Projections - The company has revised its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 12.02 billion, 17.05 billion, and 20.89 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23, 16, and 13 [3][10] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 35.62 billion, 51.25 billion, and 63.45 billion, with growth rates of 173.2%, 43.9%, and 23.8% respectively [10][19]