人民财讯12月8日电，港股午间收盘，恒生指数跌1.1%，恒生科技指数跌0.24%。泡泡玛特跌超8%；中 资券商股上涨，华泰证券涨超6%；煤炭股下跌，中国秦发跌超12%。 ...

图片来源：智通财经 港股泡泡玛特持续走弱，盘中一度跌逾7%。 ...

Summary of Pop Mart International Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group - **Industry**: Art Toy Culture and Retail - **Listing**: Listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange in December 2020 - **Key IPs**: Labubu, Molly, Skullpanda, Crybaby, Dimoo - **Retail Presence**: Operates 401 stores in mainland China and 120 stores outside mainland China as of end-2024 [10][10] Key Points from the Conference Call Product Strategy - **Sales Performance**: Sales this year have significantly exceeded expectations, but management is focused on long-term development [2][2] - **Internal Optimization**: Management is addressing weaknesses from rapid growth by optimizing organizational structure, channel operations, IP management, and supply chain capabilities [2][2] - **New Product Launches**: Q4 is the peak season, with new product series for top IPs planned for gradual weekly releases. However, the launch of Labubu 4.0 has been postponed to next year due to challenges from its popularity [2][2][2] Marketing and Capital Allocation - **Experiential Marketing**: The company is enhancing IP influence through flagship stores and immersive marketing strategies, such as character performances at theme parks and events like Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade [3][3] - **Interactive Engagement**: Future marketing will explore more interactive forms of IP engagement to enhance consumer experience [3][3] Supply Chain Management - **Supply Chain Optimization**: The supply chain has been optimized to a high level, but management aims to improve delivery speed through enhanced logistics and local warehousing [4][4] - **Demand Forecasting**: Sales data will inform more accurate demand forecasting, and marketing plans will be prepared earlier for key festivals [4][4] Financial Projections and Valuation - **Price Target**: The updated price target is HK$380.0, down from HK$435 due to higher beta assumptions [5][5] - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenues are expected to grow from Rmb4,617 million in 2022 to Rmb86,042 million by 2029 [6][6] - **Profitability Metrics**: EBIT margin is projected to increase from 14.8% in 2022 to 46.1% by 2029, with net earnings expected to rise from Rmb573 million to Rmb30,693 million over the same period [6][6] Risks and Challenges - **Industry Risks**: Key risks include a slowdown in China's economy, increased competition from internet firms, regulatory scrutiny of the blind box format, and fashion risk in existing IPs [11][11] - **Company-Specific Risks**: Risks include failure to attract consumers with new IPs, challenges in expanding into low-tier cities, and profitability pressures from investments in new initiatives [12][12] Market Metrics - **Current Stock Price**: HK$224.80 as of November 28, 2025 - **Market Capitalization**: HK$302 billion (approximately US$38.8 billion) [7][7] - **Forecast Stock Return**: Expected price appreciation of 69.0% and a dividend yield of 2.1%, leading to a total forecast stock return of 71.1% [9][9] Conclusion Pop Mart International Group is positioned for significant growth in the art toy market, with a strong focus on optimizing internal capabilities and enhancing consumer engagement through innovative marketing strategies. However, the company faces various risks that could impact its long-term success.

Core Insights - The opening of POP MART's largest flagship store in Shanghai marks a significant expansion in the brand's presence, featuring a diverse IP-themed space and immersive experiences [1][5] - The store aims to create a "潮玩宇宙" (trendy toy universe) that caters to both seasoned collectors and newcomers, showcasing over 100 popular IP series and nearly 10,000 collectible items [5] Store Design and Experience - The store features an eye-catching entrance with dual-column IP art installations, enhancing the interactive experience and attracting visitors [6] - The second floor offers themed immersive scenes that provide a rich experience, quickly becoming a trending topic on social media [6] DIY Experience and Consumer Engagement - Unlike other stores that offer temporary DIY experiences, this flagship location features a permanent DIY workspace, allowing customers to create personalized collectibles, enhancing both emotional and collectible value [8] - The launch of this DIY experience has led to long queues of consumers eager to participate [8] Special Opening Events - From November 29 to December 3, the store will host special opening activities, including a limited edition commemorative coin vending machine themed around Shanghai [10] Strategic Location and Market Positioning - The store is strategically located in the core commercial area of Nanjing Road, reinforcing its position as a trendy hub [5][11] - The Shanghai Shimao Plaza, where the store is located, is designed as a "city theater," creating a dual-track model that combines "East District subculture economy" with "West District international trends" [11] Future Developments in the Area - The East District is accelerating the introduction of new subculture businesses, with upcoming openings of Youku Shopping and My Dream World, which will cater to fans of film and K-pop culture respectively [13] - The West District continues to enhance its high-end lifestyle offerings, featuring flagship stores from international brands like NIKE and LEGO, creating a complementary lifestyle circle [15] Transformation of Traditional Commercial Areas - Shanghai Shimao Plaza is redefining traditional commercial spaces by incorporating IP-driven events and first-store economies, enhancing its appeal to younger demographics [16] - This operational model of aggregating traffic through IP, enhancing experiences through scenes, and converting through diverse offerings serves as a replicable model for transforming traditional commercial districts nationwide [16]

Summary of Pop Mart International Limited Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Limited - **Ticker**: 9992.HK - **Rating**: Underperform - **Price Target**: 225.00 HKD - **Market Cap**: 293,836 million HKD - **Annual Dividend Yield**: 0.4% Key Industry Insights - **Customer Base**: Approximately 59 million reported members, with divided investor perspectives on sustainability - **Survey Sample**: ~850 respondents across China to analyze purchasing behavior and engagement Core Findings 1. **Customer Engagement**: - The customer base shows shallow engagement, with 39% of respondents starting purchases within the past year and only 12% having purchased for over two years, indicating minimal sustainable collector development [1][15][16] 2. **Buyer Segmentation**: - Casual and impulse buyers represent 68% of the customer base, while collectors account for only ~6% [2][18] - 60% of respondents own fewer than 5 items, and 80% own under 11 items, confirming that Pop Mart functions as occasional discretionary spending rather than routine purchases [2][18] 3. **Acquisition and Portfolio Risk**: - LABUBU drives 38% of customer acquisition, indicating a heavy reliance on a single character, which poses a risk if its popularity declines [3][19][78] - 29% of respondents never purchased other IPs, suggesting vulnerability to abandonment if LABUBU's appeal wanes [3][19] 4. **Spending Intentions**: - 61% of respondents expect to increase spending, but 26% plan to decrease, with 13% intending to stop purchasing entirely within 12 months [11][23][100] - Growth expectations are modest, with 47% projecting a 10-20% increase, indicating reliance on Pop Mart's execution of new releases [11][23][100] 5. **Scarcity Strategy**: - 18% abandon purchases when items are unavailable, while 45% substitute within the ecosystem, indicating a reliance on cross-IP substitution rather than developing multi-IP preferences [12][24][118] - The blind box format retains 65% positive sentiment, but many find it "fun but frustrating," suggesting a need for improvement in customer experience [12][24] Financial Metrics - **Reported EPS**: - F24A: 2.36 RMB - F25E: 7.91 RMB - F26E: 10.21 RMB - **EPS Growth**: - F24A: 191.4% - F25E: 235.1% - F26E: 29.1% [8] Purchase Behavior Insights 1. **Purchase Frequency**: - 21% of respondents have made only a single purchase, indicating low habitual purchasing [56][58] - Only 16.55% purchase monthly or more frequently, suggesting limited engagement [56][58] 2. **Annual Spending**: - 68.80% of customers spend less than ¥500 annually, translating to around 6-7 items yearly [61][65] - This aligns with low ownership levels and infrequent purchases, indicating shallow customer engagement [61][65] 3. **Influence of Channels**: - In-store browsing (64.18%) and social media content (54.96%) are the top drivers for purchasing decisions, highlighting the importance of product discovery [68][71] Future Considerations - **Churn Risk**: The data suggests Pop Mart operates with a "leaky bucket," requiring continuous new customer acquisition to offset attrition [100][101] - **Product Development**: Success hinges on the ability to innovate and maintain a strong IP pipeline to drive customer engagement and spending [106][107] Conclusion - Pop Mart's current customer base is characterized by shallow engagement and a heavy reliance on a single IP, LABUBU. The company faces significant challenges in converting casual buyers into committed collectors and must focus on product innovation and customer retention strategies to ensure sustainable growth.

Core Viewpoint - The company Copper Master is attempting a second listing in Hong Kong after its initial prospectus failed, capitalizing on the recovering sentiment in the Hong Kong consumer stock market [2][13]. Group 1: Business Performance - Copper Master has seen its revenue growth slow to single digits, with profits also declining, contrasting sharply with competitors like Pop Mart, which reported over 200% revenue growth and nearly 400% net profit growth [3][19]. - In the first half of 2025, Copper Master reported a main business revenue of 308 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of less than 10%, while net profit fell from 39.76 million yuan in the first half of 2024 to 30.24 million yuan [19][22]. - The average transaction price for Copper Master has significantly decreased, with online prices dropping from 958 yuan to 556 yuan and offline prices from 1918 yuan to 659 yuan from 2022 to the first half of 2025 [22]. Group 2: Market Positioning - Copper Master is often labeled as "the Pop Mart for middle-aged people," but this comparison is superficial as the two companies operate under fundamentally different business models [4][15]. - While Pop Mart focuses on emotional value and IP-driven products, Copper Master emphasizes tangible copper craftsmanship, leading to a lower gross margin of around 35% compared to Pop Mart's gross margin of approximately 70% [16][18]. - The target demographic for Copper Master includes middle-aged consumers who prioritize functional value and social status over emotional appeal, contrasting with the younger audience of Pop Mart [18][29]. Group 3: Growth Challenges - The company faces significant challenges in proving its growth potential, especially as it approaches its IPO, with concerns about its ability to meet investor expectations [21][25]. - Rising copper prices pose a threat to Copper Master's profit margins, as the company relies on raw material costs that are subject to market fluctuations [23][24]. - Copper Master is attempting to diversify its product offerings and target demographics by expanding into plastic and other materials, as well as collaborating with popular IPs to attract younger consumers [26][28]. Group 4: International Expansion - The company is exploring international markets, particularly in regions like Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and the United States, to leverage the appeal of Eastern aesthetics and craftsmanship [32][33]. - However, establishing a presence in overseas markets requires significant time and investment in brand education and channel development, making immediate financial returns unlikely [33].

Core Insights - The article highlights the booming trend of trendy consumption, particularly focusing on the success of Pop Mart's LABUBU toys, which have seen global demand and significant price appreciation in the secondary market [2][3][4] - The nature of trendy consumption is characterized by unpredictable demand and short-lived popularity, necessitating a different operational logic compared to traditional brand marketing [2][11][23] Group 1: Trendy Consumption Characteristics - Trendy toys, or "Art Toys," originated in the late 1990s and are designed for adult collectors, distinguishing them from traditional children's toys [3][4] - Pop Mart transitioned from a general trendy goods retailer to a focused trendy toy company, leveraging industrialization to scale production and reach millions in sales [4][5] - The company has developed a closed-loop business model encompassing IP incubation, design, production, and sales, while continuously attracting influential artists [5][12] Group 2: Operational Strategies - Pop Mart's success is attributed to its ability to convert artistic creativity into marketable products, while also adhering to the operational logic of trendy brands to manage demand uncertainty [12][16] - The company employs a flexible, responsive business model that allows for rapid adjustments based on market feedback and consumer preferences [16][17] - Pop Mart has established a comprehensive sales system, including physical stores, online platforms, and social media engagement, to maximize product visibility and consumer interaction [18] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The demand for trendy products is highly unpredictable, often influenced by social trends and peer behavior, leading to a "winner-takes-all" market dynamic [8][23] - The company has successfully capitalized on the viral nature of trendy products, with significant sales spikes driven by social media exposure and celebrity endorsements [19][20] - Despite the potential for high sales, the transient nature of consumer interest necessitates continuous product innovation and brand refreshment to maintain relevance [22][24]

Core Insights - The release of "Zootopia 2" has generated significant excitement, reminiscent of the busy atmosphere during the Spring Festival box office period [1] - Collaborative marketing efforts with various brands have amplified the intellectual property (IP) effect, leading to increased consumer engagement and sales [1] Brand Collaborations - Bubble Mart's collaboration on the "Continuation Series" has seen its products sell out both online and in physical stores, with some items experiencing price increases on second-hand platforms [1] - The partnership between "Zootopia 2" and Luckin Coffee resulted in products selling out within three days of launch [1]

Core Insights - The opening of the Bubble Mart flagship store in Shanghai marks the brand's second location on Nanjing Road, known as "China's First Commercial Street," following the Hongyi Plaza store. This new store is larger and contributes to a unique "dual flagship store" strategy, injecting fresh vitality into the historic shopping district [2]. Group 1 - The new flagship store is located on Nanjing Road, which is recognized for its commercial significance [2]. - This store is the second for Bubble Mart in the area, following the opening of the Hongyi Plaza store [2]. - The flagship store is larger than the previous one, enhancing the brand's presence in a key retail location [2].

I. 法定/註冊股本變動 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年11月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 泡泡瑪特國際集團有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年12月1日 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 09992 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.0001 USD | | 500,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | USD | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.0001 USD | | 500,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： USD 500, ...