2025年9月26号这一天，叶国富和他的TOP TOY把港交所搅得不安生，IPO招股书一递，3亿美元的募资 目标，102亿港元的估值，气氛瞬间紧绷，几乎有种"新王登基"的既视感，这不是普通的资本动作，而 是一次正面对垒——TOP TOY能不能复制泡泡玛特的4000亿神话，市场全在盯着。 名创优品的创始人叶国富，这回真的是把赌注压在了潮玩上，回顾时间线，2022年7月，名创优品刚在 港交所完成二次上市，叶国富当时就在公开场合放话，三年内要让TOP TOY独立上市，这一刻他兑现 了承诺，时间卡得死死的，市场也有点被他这份执行力震住了。 TOP TOY诞生于2020年，彼时泡泡玛特刚上市没几天，行业热度正高，TOP TOY就立刻在广州开了首 店，开业前三天销售额破百万，大家都说这开局有点狠，行业也隐隐感受到新玩家的野心和压力。 这些年TOP TOY的增长速度确实很快，2022年营收6.79亿，2025年冲到19.09亿，还实现了扭亏为盈， 2022年亏0.37亿，2023年赚2.9亿，2025年又涨到3.96亿，这种成长曲线，行业里少见，很多人看着都眼 红。 门店也在扩张，截至2025年9月19号，全国299家，海 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 泡泡瑪特國際集團有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年10月3日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 第 2 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 09992 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.0001 USD | | 500,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | USD | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.0001 USD | | 500,000 | 本月 ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Pop Mart's U.S. market is still in its early development stage, with no other toy/hobby stores offering a similar consumer experience [1][11] - Five out of six visited stores had higher foot traffic and transaction volumes than nearby stores, second only to Apple stores [10] Store Visits - Morgan Stanley analysts visited six Pop Mart stores in New York and New Jersey, including locations in American Dream Mall and Jersey City [2][4] Key Findings - **New Customer Base and Product Variety**: Many new customers inquired about the "blind box" products, indicating that retail stores effectively promote Pop Mart's diverse IP/product portfolio [6] - **Store Layout and Customer Base**: Most of the 50 U.S. stores are located in residential areas, with fewer in core commercial centers, highlighting the need for continued expansion to build a solid core customer base [6] - **Operational Optimization**: Some stores show good profitability, but there is room for improvement, such as small store sizes (around 100 square meters) and the need for enhanced digital operations [6] Customer Demographics - Compared to other markets, a higher proportion of children (accompanied by adults) are observed in U.S. stores, likely due to stronger purchasing power among American consumers [9] Foot Traffic and Transaction Volume - Most visited stores maintained significant foot traffic even without selling Labubu plush toys, with five out of six stores outperforming nearby competitors [10] Market Competition - Currently, no other toy/hobby stores provide a consumer experience comparable to Pop Mart, characterized by the joy of unboxing, attractive product designs, and a rich IP matrix [11] Popular IPs and Product Display - In addition to Labubu, popular IPs include Crybaby, Skullpanda, Hirono, Twinkle Twinkle, Dimoo, and some licensed Japanese anime/Disney products [12] - Each store offers a different selection of products, allowing for regular product rotation to maintain freshness [16] Valuation and Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley rates Pop Mart as a preferred choice in the consumer sector in China/Hong Kong, with a target price of HKD 382 [17][18] - The valuation method anticipates a target P/E ratio of 42 times for 2025, considering the company's global expansion potential [20] - Factors driving potential valuation increases include sustained sales momentum in China and overseas, successful launches of popular products and IPs, and growth in revenue per square meter [21]

Core Viewpoint - TOP TOY, which opened its first store in 2020, is now aiming for an IPO within five years, positioning itself as a platform for various products and IPs, contrasting with Bubble Mart's closed ecosystem approach [2][14]. Market Valuation - As of July 2025, TOP TOY completed a Series A funding round of approximately $60 million, resulting in a post-money valuation of $1.3 billion (approximately HKD 10.2 billion) [2]. - In comparison, Bubble Mart's market capitalization exceeds HKD 350 billion, making it 35 times larger than TOP TOY [2]. Financial Performance - TOP TOY's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 was CNY 679 million, CNY 1.461 billion, and CNY 1.909 billion, respectively, with net profits of -CNY 38.38 million, CNY 212 million, and CNY 294 million [2]. - In the first half of 2025, TOP TOY reported revenue of CNY 1.36 billion and a profit of CNY 180 million, reflecting year-on-year growth of 58.5% and 26.8%, respectively [2][7]. Comparison with Bubble Mart - Bubble Mart's revenue for the first half of 2025 was CNY 13.88 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 204.4%, and a net profit of CNY 4.57 billion, showing a growth of 396.5% [3]. - Bubble Mart's revenue and profit are 10 times and 25 times that of TOP TOY, respectively [3]. Membership and Store Count - As of mid-2025, Bubble Mart had 59.12 million registered members, while TOP TOY had over 10 million [3]. - Bubble Mart operates 571 stores globally, with 443 in China and 128 overseas, in addition to 2,597 vending machines [3]. - TOP TOY has 299 stores, with 15 located overseas, covering markets such as Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Japan [4]. Revenue Sources - TOP TOY's revenue is primarily generated from franchisees and distributors, accounting for 74.3% of its income in the first half of 2025 [4]. - In contrast, Bubble Mart's revenue is mainly from direct sales [4]. Profitability Metrics - For the first half of 2025, Bubble Mart's gross margin exceeded 70%, and net margin surpassed 30%, while TOP TOY's gross margin was 32% and net margin only 13% [6]. - TOP TOY's self-developed IP products generated CNY 6.1 million in revenue in the first half of 2025, accounting for less than 1% of total revenue [12]. IP Strategy - TOP TOY has 17 proprietary IPs and 43 licensed IPs, while Bubble Mart's proprietary products accounted for 99.1% of its total revenue in the first half of 2025 [8][10]. - The scarcity of Bubble Mart's IPs allows for higher pricing power compared to TOP TOY's broader but less impactful IP portfolio [8][10].

Core Insights - TOP TOY, a潮玩 brand under Miniso, has officially initiated its IPO process by submitting its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to achieve the goal set by founder Ye Guofu to go public within three years [1][2] - The潮玩 market has been rapidly growing, with competitors like Pop Mart creating significant market presence, and TOP TOY's entry is expected to intensify the competition [1][2] Company Performance - TOP TOY has shown remarkable growth, with revenue jumping from 6.79 billion RMB in 2022 to 19.09 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 67.7% [3] - The company transitioned from a loss in 2022 to profitability in 2023, with net profit projected to reach 2.94 billion RMB in 2024, and gross margin increasing from 19.9% in 2022 to 32.7% in 2024 [3][4] - The number of stores has expanded from 117 in 2022 to 293 in 2024, supported by Miniso's extensive retail network [3] Market Position and Challenges - Despite rapid growth, TOP TOY remains heavily reliant on Miniso, with 45.5% of its revenue coming from the Miniso ecosystem as of mid-2025, raising concerns about its independence post-IPO [4] - The潮玩 industry is increasingly competitive, with self-owned IP becoming a critical differentiator. TOP TOY's reliance on licensed IPs poses risks, as evidenced by its lower revenue from self-owned IP compared to competitors like Pop Mart [5][7][10] International Expansion - TOP TOY has begun to focus on international markets, aiming for overseas sales to exceed 50% within five years and planning to open 1,000 stores globally [9] - Initial success has been noted in Southeast Asia, with profitable openings in Thailand and Malaysia, but overall overseas revenue remains low compared to competitors [9][10] Industry Outlook - The潮玩 market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a market size of 825 billion RMB by 2025 and 2,133 billion RMB by 2030, indicating a CAGR of 20.9% [11] - The competition is shifting towards IP ecosystem development and global strategies, emphasizing the need for brands to cultivate their own successful IPs to thrive in the market [11]

Core Insights - The recent popularity of the "Labubu 3.0" and "Twinkle Twinkle" series from Pop Mart indicates a strong demand in the collectible toy market, with significant price fluctuations observed in the secondary market [1][6][10] Group 1: Product Performance - The "Labubu 3.0" series saw a significant drop in secondary market prices, with items originally priced at 99 RMB now being sold for as low as 85 RMB, indicating a decrease in demand or oversupply [1] - The "Twinkle Twinkle" series, particularly the "Starry Person Delicious Moment Series," has experienced a surge in popularity before its official release, with hidden items selling for up to 929 RMB, reflecting a nearly 15-fold premium [6] - The "Starry Person" IP achieved over 1 billion RMB in sales within six months of signing with Pop Mart, making it the fastest-growing new IP in the company's history [7] Group 2: Market Trends - The collectible toy market remains vibrant, as evidenced by the active secondary market for the "Starry Person" series, which indicates strong consumer interest and demand [6][10] - The emotional connection and storytelling behind the "Starry Person" IP contribute to its appeal, as it resonates with consumers seeking identity expression through collectibles [10] - The trend of high premiums in the secondary market suggests a structural shortage of quality IPs, highlighting the potential for continued growth in the collectible toy sector [10] Group 3: Company Strategy - Pop Mart is shifting from a model focused on creating hit products to a more refined approach of nurturing long-term IP ecosystems, as seen with the "Starry Person" series [10] - The company aims to reduce reliance on single IPs and extend the consumer lifecycle of popular products, which is crucial for sustaining revenue growth [10] - The success of the "Starry Person" series demonstrates Pop Mart's effective IP incubation and market deployment strategies, showcasing its ability to maintain a pipeline of popular products [10]

Group 1 - Pop Mart's revenue surpasses Disney for the first time, with the price of blind boxes skyrocketing to 1499 yuan, indicating strong market demand [4][1] - The secondary market price for the hidden "Little Bear Biscuit" pendant has surged to 929 yuan, a 16-fold increase from the official price of 59 yuan [4] - The overall price for a complete box has increased from 354 yuan to 1499 yuan, with over 3000 clicks on the platform indicating consumer interest [4] Group 2 - Gold prices have surged, with spot gold breaking the 3850 USD mark, reaching a record high of 3851.879 USD per ounce [3][4] - This price increase has been ongoing for seven consecutive days, surpassing the previous high of 3834.12 USD per ounce [4] Group 3 - Xiaomi's 17 Pro model has gained popularity due to its unique "back screen" feature, which has sparked discussions on social media [3][4] - The concept of "pain machines" is derived from Japanese "otaku culture," where items are customized with anime and game elements [4] Group 4 - Yu Chengdong has been appointed to lead Huawei's IRB, with the appointment personally signed off by Ren Zhengfei [5] - Jensen Huang has sold 225,000 shares of NVIDIA, cashing out over 40 million USD [6] - Apple had plans to launch an 8GB budget iPad, with a prototype recently exposed [6]

Core Insights - The "Star People Delicious Moment Series" from Pop Mart has generated significant consumer interest, with hidden items like the "Little Bear Biscuit" seeing prices rise from ¥59 to ¥929, reflecting a nearly 15-fold premium, marking it as the highest premium series recently [2][8]. Group 1: Product Launch and Sales Performance - The "Star People Delicious Moment Series" is set to launch on September 29, with pre-orders already active on second-hand platforms, indicating strong demand before the official release [3][5]. - Initial stock for the series is significantly lower compared to previous releases, leading to rapid sell-outs; over 36,000 consumers added the plush biscuit keychain to their carts within minutes of the launch [3][5]. - The previous "Mini Labubu" series sold over 300,000 units on its launch night, highlighting the competitive nature of Pop Mart's product releases [3]. Group 2: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The hidden "Little Bear Biscuit" has seen a price increase to ¥929, with a premium of nearly 15 times its original price, indicating strong market demand and consumer willingness to pay for exclusive items [8]. - The "Star People" series is positioned as a commercially valuable IP for Pop Mart, potentially reducing the company's previous reliance on the Labubu series, which accounted for 34.7% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [11]. - The "Star People" series has already generated over ¥100 million in revenue since its launch in August 2024, making it one of the fastest-growing new IPs for Pop Mart [11].

Core Insights - The launch of the "Star People Delicious Moments Series" by Pop Mart on September 29 was met with high demand, with products selling out immediately on various official platforms [1][6] - Despite initial high prices, the market value of the products, particularly plush items, has seen a significant decline shortly after the release [3][10] Product Launch and Sales Performance - The "Star People Delicious Moments Series" includes various products such as blind box figurines, plush keychains, phone cases, pillows, and night light keychains, with the plush cookie keychain being the most popular item [1][12] - On the day of the launch, over 50,000 plush products were sold within a minute across platforms like Douyin and Taobao [3][6] - The initial retail price for the plush cookie keychain was 354 yuan, but market prices ranged from 699 to 1199 yuan before the release [1][6] Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Following the launch, the market price for hidden plush items dropped from 929 yuan to below 600 yuan within hours, indicating a rapid decline in resale value [3][10] - The average transaction price for plush items fluctuated around 600 yuan shortly after the release, down from peaks of over 1000 yuan [6][10] - The average transaction price for the figurines also decreased from a peak of 956.2 yuan to around 850 yuan, nearing the original price [10] Consumer Interest and Market Sentiment - The pre-launch hype was significant, with over 50,000 users expressing interest and transaction records appearing on trading platforms even before the official sale [6][12] - Despite the price drop post-launch, the popularity of the "Star People" brand remains strong, with fans expressing concerns about potential over-speculation affecting the brand's appeal [14][16] - The "Star People" IP, one of Pop Mart's fastest-growing new brands, generated revenue of 390 million yuan in the first half of the year [16]

Core Insights - The "Star People Delicious Moments Series" blind boxes from Pop Mart have generated significant consumer interest, leading to a rush for pre-orders even before the official release [1][5] - The initial sale saw products sell out within minutes, with over 360,000 items added to carts on Tmall, while only 20,000+ items were available [1][5] Pricing and Resale Market - The resale market has seen substantial price increases, with the original price of 69 yuan for figurines rising to 119 yuan, and the hidden "Little Bear Cookie" variant reaching a peak price of 689 yuan, reflecting a nearly 10-fold markup [5][8] - Random blind boxes have seen prices increase from 59 yuan to 182 yuan, while complete sets have risen from 354 yuan to 769 yuan, indicating a markup of over 2 times [5][8] Consumer Demand and Product Popularity - The "Star People" series has shown higher resale premiums compared to the previously popular "Mini Labubu" series, indicating strong consumer demand [8] - Popular items within the series include "Star Sugar," "Macaron Moments," "Zhao Jibing," "Lazy Moments," and "Strong Bread," with a variety of merchandise announced, including plush toys and accessories [8][9] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The previous release of the "Star People Dream Weather Bureau Series" also experienced high demand, with resale prices reaching 1511 yuan, showcasing the series' consistent popularity [9] - Analysts suggest that while some price increases are driven by speculation, the active demand from consumers indicates a genuine interest in the products, highlighting a structural gap in quality IP supply [9] - For Pop Mart, sustaining long-term value will depend on continuous innovation in product offerings and maintaining strong consumer connections through beloved IPs [9]