Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan has downgraded Pop Mart's stock rating to "Neutral" due to a lack of clear growth catalysts and unattractive current valuation [1][3] Group 1: Stock Performance - Following the downgrade, Pop Mart's stock opened with a significant drop, falling over 8% on September 15, with a trading volume exceeding 1.5 billion HKD, and its total market capitalization dropping below 350 billion HKD [1] - As of the report, Pop Mart's stock price was 259.2 HKD per share, reflecting a decline of over 6% [1] Group 2: Market Concerns - Concerns have arisen regarding the potential decline of Pop Mart's product craze, particularly with the fluctuating prices of its flagship product, Labubu, in the secondary market [3] - The average transaction price for Labubu has shown a downward trend, with more sellers expressing bearish sentiment [3] Group 3: Product Sales and Consumer Interest - The recent launch of the SKULLPANDA new product series saw minimal consumer interest, with only 10 people queuing for the release, contrasting sharply with previous launches that attracted thousands [6] - Sales data from Pop Mart's official flagship store indicated a volatile sales pattern for the new blind boxes, with initial sales of 93,000 units dropping to only 809 shortly after, likely due to high return rates [6]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan warns that Pop Mart's stock, which surged over 200% this year, has reached "perfect valuation," leading to a significant decline in entry price attractiveness and a rapidly deteriorating risk-reward ratio [1][3]. Stock Performance - On September 15, Pop Mart's stock dropped significantly, hitting a low of 252 HKD per share, the lowest since August 5, and down over 25% from its previous record high [1]. - Year-to-date, Pop Mart's stock has surged 209%, and over the past year, it has increased by 466%, far exceeding the Hang Seng Index's gains of 32% and 52% during the same period [3][6]. Rating and Target Price Adjustment - JPMorgan downgraded Pop Mart's rating from "Overweight" to "Neutral" and reduced the target price from 400 HKD to 300 HKD [4][6]. - The downgrade reflects concerns that the stock price has risen too quickly and too high, resulting in short-term risks outweighing potential returns [5]. Valuation Model Changes - The PEG ratio used by JPMorgan was adjusted from 1.5 to 1.1, indicating an increased focus on risk considerations at current high valuations [7]. Catalysts and Market Sentiment - Four out of seven previously identified catalysts for Pop Mart's stock performance have been realized, including strong performance reports and successful collaborations [8]. - However, three potential catalysts remain uncertain, including the release of the "Labubu & Friends" animation and new product launches [9][10]. Core IP and Market Dynamics - Concerns regarding the sustainability of the core IP Labubu's popularity have arisen due to declining resale prices in the secondary market, attributed to rapid production capacity expansion rather than a decline in IP popularity [11][12]. - The resale price of Labubu 3.0 in China dropped from a peak of 2284 RMB to 687 RMB, a decline of 70%, yet still maintains a 15% premium over retail price [12]. Long-term Investment Logic - Despite the downgrade, JPMorgan does not recommend "Underweight" and maintains a positive long-term investment outlook for Pop Mart, citing three key pillars: strong IP commercialization capabilities, a diversified IP portfolio, and successful global expansion [15][16][17]. - The company is recognized for its management quality and execution capabilities, ranking alongside top consumer goods companies in China [18].

港股泡泡玛特盘初跳水一度跌超8%，成交额超15亿港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Pop Mart experienced a significant drop, falling over 8% in early trading, with a trading volume exceeding 1.5 billion HKD, and its total market capitalization has fallen below 350 billion HKD. Despite this, the stock has seen a cumulative increase of over 180% this year [1]. Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Market Reactions - Morgan Stanley analyst Kevin Yin downgraded Pop Mart International Group's rating from "Overweight" to "Neutral," setting a target price of 300 HKD, which represents an 8.4% increase from the last quoted price [1]. - There are concerns in the market regarding the rational return of interest in Pop Mart's IP, especially following the recent launch of its gold series products [1]. Group 2: Capital Flows - Southbound funds have been consistently net selling Pop Mart, with a record net sell of 1.721 billion HKD on September 10, marking the highest historical outflow [1].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Pop Mart has experienced a significant decline, with a drop of over 7% as of the latest report, prompting Morgan Stanley to downgrade its rating to neutral [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 15, Pop Mart's stock initially fell sharply, with a decline reaching 8% at one point [1]. - As of the latest update, the stock price was reported at 257.400 HKD, reflecting a decrease of 19.400 HKD or 7.01% [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - Morgan Stanley has adjusted its rating for Pop Mart's stock to neutral, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards the company [1].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，9月15日，港股泡泡玛特盘初跌超8%，摩根大通已将其对泡泡玛特股票的评级下调至中 性。 ...

Group 1 - Pop Mart's jewelry brand popop launched a gold series featuring the IP Baby Molly, with prices ranging from 980 yuan to 56,800 yuan, adopting a fixed-price model similar to traditional gold shops [1] - The series includes various products such as gold beads, pendants, gold bars, and decorative items, with the most expensive item being a 41g gold bottle priced at 56,800 yuan [1] - This move reflects Pop Mart's ambition to explore differentiated competition in the gold market and tap into new profit points by leveraging its IP value [1] Group 2 - The 2025 film box office in China surpassed 40 billion yuan by September 13, 2025, 76 days earlier than in 2024, with over 88.8% of the revenue coming from domestic films [2] - The top ten films of the year are all domestic productions, indicating a strong recognition of local content among audiences [2] - The rapid growth in box office revenue is attributed to increased quality content supply, policy support, and seasonal boosts from major holiday releases [2] Group 3 - The trademark "Qianhe 0+" of Qianhe Flavor Industry was declared invalid by the National Intellectual Property Administration, which may impact the company's brand positioning and market reputation [3] - The invalidation is based on the trademark law, indicating that descriptive terms lack distinctiveness and are at risk of being invalidated [3] - This situation may prompt Qianhe Flavor Industry to reassess its brand identity and rely more on product strength for market expansion [3] Group 4 - Huace Film and DataEye announced the establishment of a 100 million yuan micro-short drama investment fund, focusing on high-quality projects and the "micro-short drama+" direction [4][5] - This initiative aims to promote the micro-short drama industry towards high quality and professionalism, reflecting strategic foresight in a rapidly expanding market [4][5] - By investing in premium projects, Huace Film seeks to enhance market share and profitability through diverse business models [5] Group 5 - Estée Lauder's China Innovation R&D Center has been recognized as a global R&D center by the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce, meeting specific investment and project criteria [6] - This recognition underscores the company's commitment to local innovation and high-end research in the Chinese market, enhancing its competitive edge in the Asia-Pacific beauty sector [6] - The upgrade of the foreign R&D center reflects China's growing strategic importance in the global beauty industry and its attractiveness in the global supply chain and innovation network [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices has led to a surprising lack of interest in Pop Mart's new gold jewelry line, contrasting sharply with the previous demand for their blind boxes [1][3]. Pricing Strategy - Pop Mart has adopted a fixed pricing model for their gold products, which does not fluctuate with gold prices, unlike traditional gold retailers [3]. - The pricing for Pop Mart's gold items ranges from 980 yuan for the cheapest gold bead to 56,800 yuan for a 41-gram gold ornament, with per gram prices between 1,300 and 1,800 yuan [1][3]. - Comparatively, their collaboration with Chow Sang Sang has a per gram price of 2,185 yuan, indicating that Pop Mart's pricing strategy may not appeal to average consumers [3]. Target Market and Consumer Behavior - The primary consumers for gold jewelry are typically older women with higher purchasing power, which does not align with Pop Mart's core demographic of younger consumers [4]. - There is a potential mismatch in targeting both young consumers through IP and high-end customers through gold, which may lead to dissatisfaction on both fronts [4]. Market Expansion and Growth Potential - Pop Mart's founder has indicated that jewelry is a key area for expansion, with a 67% increase in IP derivative income projected for 2024, accounting for 29% of total revenue [3]. - Despite impressive growth in their IP derivative products, the gold market operates differently, with consumers placing a higher emphasis on price stability and value retention [4]. Strategic Challenges - The initial low demand for Pop Mart's gold products may reflect deeper strategic issues, particularly in pricing and distribution channels [4]. - If Pop Mart can effectively integrate the value of their IP with the stability of gold, they may successfully penetrate a new market [4]. - However, maintaining high premiums and limited distribution could pose risks to their overall brand ecosystem [4].

Core Insights - The new SKULLPANDA "Sleepless Theater" plush keychain series has been launched and sold out across multiple platforms immediately [2] - The premium for the hidden variant "Half-Dream Knight" has increased from 159 yuan to 749 yuan, representing a 3.7 times premium; the peak transaction price for the end box reached 1589 yuan, with only a 40% premium, marking a recent low [2] - The overall heat for SKULLPANDA is quickly returning to rational levels, indicating that future premiums may stabilize at more reasonable levels [2] Product Performance - The "Sleepless Theater" series includes 9 regular styles and 1 hidden style [2] - Recently, SKULLPANDA has released two new series: "Light Weaving Garden" plush keychains and "Winter Melody" figurines [2] - Sales and premiums for the "Winter Melody" series are weaker than those of the "Light Weaving Garden" series, with the peak premium for individual unopened blind boxes at only 0.4 times [2]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart officially launched its gold jewelry brand popop on September 12, introducing a series of solid gold products, marking a significant expansion into the jewelry market [2]. Group 1: Product Launch and Sales - The popop brand currently sells its products only in two physical stores located in Beijing and Shanghai, with no online sales channels available yet [7]. - On the first day of the launch, the sales of the solid gold series were relatively quiet compared to the immediate sell-out of Pop Mart's toy series, with no queues reported at the Beijing store [10]. - Store staff indicated that while there was no rush to purchase, many customers inquired about the new gold products, suggesting a potential interest in future purchases [10]. Group 2: Pricing and Market Positioning - The pricing of the newly launched solid gold products is lower than previous collaborations, such as the "Traveling Dream" series with Chow Sang Sang, where a 0.8-gram gold bead was priced at approximately ¥1748, translating to about ¥2185 per gram [10]. - Prior to the introduction of solid gold items, popop's products primarily used lower-value materials like S925 silver and zircon, with prices ranging from ¥319 to ¥2699, targeting the light luxury market alongside brands like Pandora and Swarovski [10][12]. Group 3: Revenue and Growth Potential - The revenue from Pop Mart's IP-derived products is projected to grow by 67% year-on-year in 2024, accounting for 29% of total revenue, indicating a strong market demand for its IP products [12]. - The founder of Pop Mart expressed a desire to explore various product categories, with jewelry being a significant area of focus for expansion [12].