Group 1 - The new U.S. budget bill raises concerns among traders about the deficit, leading to poor results in U.S. Treasury auctions and accelerating bond market sell-offs, which in turn dragged down U.S. stock indices to their largest decline in a month [1][4] - The U.S. stock market saw significant declines, with the Dow Jones down 1.91%, Nasdaq down 1.41%, and S&P 500 down 1.62% [1][4] - Long-term U.S. Treasury bonds were heavily sold off, with the 20-year bond yield rising to 5.12%, the 30-year bond yield reaching 5.09%, and the 10-year bond yield hitting a near three-month high of 4.60% [1][4] Group 2 - The CME Bitcoin futures main contract rose by 1.07% to $109,000, but quickly reversed gains after the announcement of the U.S. Treasury's 20-year bond issuance results [3] - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, increased by 15.42% to 20.88, indicating heightened market fear [7] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 0.14%, with notable declines in AMD and TSMC ADR [7] Group 3 - Notable declines in major tech stocks included Tesla down 2.68%, Apple down 2.31%, and Nvidia down 1.92%, while Google A saw an increase of 2.79% [4][5] - Chinese concept stocks experienced mixed results, with Baidu down 4.32% and Li Auto up 3.08% [8][9] Group 4 - XPeng Motors reported Q1 revenue of 15.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.5%, with expectations of doubling sales this year [10] - WeRide announced Q1 revenue of 72.44 million yuan, with a gross margin of 35.0%, and a significant increase in Robotaxi revenue [10] Group 5 - The offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar traded at 7.2041, showing a slight increase, while the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.42% to 99.60 [11] - Gold prices rose, with spot gold up 0.75% to $3,314.77 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures up 1.01% to $3,317.80 per ounce [12]

Group 1 - The first quarter revenue met expectations, with profits exceeding market expectations by 9%. The company anticipates a 14% revenue increase in the second quarter, with adjusted operating profit remaining flat year-on-year [1] - The first quarter performance for 2025 showed revenue of 13.8 billion RMB, a 16% year-on-year increase, aligning with market expectations. Key segments included accommodation (+23%), transportation (+8%), vacation (+7%), and business travel (+12%) [1] - The number of hotel nights in mainland China increased by over 15% year-on-year, with average daily rates (ADR) showing a slight decline, which is better than the industry average [1] Group 2 - Trip.com reported a nearly 60% year-on-year revenue increase, accounting for approximately 13% of total revenue. Adjusted net profit rose 3% to 4.2 billion RMB, exceeding market expectations by 10% and 9% due to lower-than-expected marketing expenses [2] - The company expects a 14% revenue increase in the second quarter, with hotel and transportation segments projected to grow by 17% and 9%, respectively. Hotel night volumes in mainland China and outbound markets are expected to increase by 10-15% and 15-20% [2] - The competitive landscape in the industry is expected to alleviate some monetization pressure, although profit margins are projected to decline due to ongoing investments in overseas branding [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue and net profit exceeding market expectations, driven by controlled marketing expenses and favorable foreign exchange gains [1][3]. Performance Review - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue increased by 16% to 13.8 billion yuan, aligning with market expectations; non-GAAP net profit reached 4.2 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations by 9% [1]. - The company's hotel booking revenue in Q1 2025 was 5.54 billion yuan, a 23% year-on-year increase, surpassing market expectations by 1.4% [1]. Development Trends - Domestic tourism demand remains robust, with hotel prices expected to stabilize. The company anticipates a mid-to-low double-digit year-on-year growth in domestic hotel night stays for Q2 2025, with a narrowing decline in Average Daily Rate (ADR) [1]. - For outbound travel, the company expects a 15-20% year-on-year increase in outbound flight and hotel bookings in Q2 2025, recovering to 120% of 2019 levels, despite challenges in the Thai market [2]. Growth Expectations - Trip.com is projected to achieve high growth, with international OTA bookings increasing over 60% in Q1, and inbound travel bookings nearly doubling [3]. - The company expects to maintain a 50%+ revenue growth rate for Trip.com in the second half of the year, supported by strong demand from inbound tourism policies and brand expansion into new markets [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upwards by 3% to 16.4 billion yuan and 18.9 billion yuan, respectively, while maintaining revenue expectations [3]. - The target prices for the company's shares are set at $75.9 for US stocks and HK$588.5 for Hong Kong stocks, reflecting a potential upside of 13% and 14% from current prices [3].

Core Viewpoint - In Q1 2025, Trip.com Group achieved revenue of 13.85 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16.18%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 4.188 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.28%, with revenue meeting expectations and profit exceeding Bloomberg consensus [1] Revenue Performance - Q1 revenue reached 13.85 billion RMB, aligning with guidance of 13.8 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of 16.2% [1] - Breakdown of revenue sources: - Transportation ticketing revenue: 5.42 billion RMB, up 8.4% [1] - Hotel revenue: 5.54 billion RMB, up 23.2% [1] - Vacation revenue: 0.95 billion RMB, up 7.3% [1] - Business travel revenue: 0.57 billion RMB, up 12.1% [1] - Other revenue: 1.37 billion RMB, up 32.98% [1] - Domestic hotel booking volume growth reached high teens, with ADR decline being lower than the industry average [1] Profitability Analysis - Gross profit for Q1 was 11.125 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.08%, with a gross margin of 80.44%, down 0.76 percentage points [2] - Non-GAAP net profit was 4.188 billion RMB, corresponding to a net margin of 30.28%, down 3.78 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The increase in international business share and investment led to a decline in gross margin and an increase in sales expense ratio [2] Future Projections - Expected revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 61.12 billion RMB and 70.96 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of 14.68% and 16.10% respectively [3] - Projected Non-GAAP net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 17.383 billion RMB and 20.759 billion RMB, with corresponding net margins of 28.44% and 29.25% [3] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 569.30 HKD, corresponding to an 18X PE for 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip's Q1 revenue increased by 16% year-on-year, meeting expectations, while adjusted net profit rose by 3%, exceeding market expectations by 9% due to lower-than-expected marketing expenses [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 net revenue reached 13.9 billion yuan, a 16% year-on-year increase, aligning with market expectations; accommodation bookings grew by 23%, and transportation ticketing revenue increased by 8%, contributing 54% and 22% to total revenue respectively [1] - Gross profit increased by 15% year-on-year, with a gross margin decline of 1 percentage point to 80%; adjusted net profit rose to 4.2 billion yuan, exceeding consensus expectations by 9% [1][3] Operational Data - Domestic hotel night volume saw double-digit growth year-on-year in Q1, with ADR experiencing a slight decline; however, a narrowing of the decline is expected in April and May [1] - Internationally, hotel and flight bookings increased by over 60% year-on-year, with significant contributions from the Asia-Pacific region; inbound travel bookings more than doubled year-on-year, benefiting from favorable policies [2] Market Outlook - The domestic business outlook remains robust, while overseas operations are in an investment phase; during the May Day holiday, domestic travel volume and revenue increased by 8% and 6% respectively [2] - Ctrip's domestic hotel bookings rose by 20% year-on-year during the holiday, with cross-border orders increasing by 30% and inbound bookings up by 150% [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company has slightly adjusted its 2025 revenue and profit forecasts, expecting a 15% year-on-year revenue increase, with accommodation bookings growing by 16% and transportation bookings by 9% [3] - The target price is maintained at 591 HKD (9961.HK) / 76 USD (TCOM.US), corresponding to a 20x P/E ratio for 2025, with a "Buy" rating upheld [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 13.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and a NON-GAAP net profit of 4.19 billion yuan, up 3.3%, both slightly exceeding market expectations. Domestic leisure travel demand has shown steady improvement, while outbound and international business continues to grow significantly, supported by optimized overseas marketing expenses [1][8]. - The long-term outlook remains positive due to the vast growth potential in overseas markets, with expectations of continued performance improvement as international operations mature and profitability enhances [1][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 44.51 billion yuan - 2024: 53.29 billion yuan (+20%) - 2025E: 61.81 billion yuan (+16%) - 2026E: 70.80 billion yuan (+15%) - 2027E: 80.91 billion yuan (+14%) [3][11]. - The company’s net profit is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 9.92 billion yuan in 2023, reaching 23.99 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 13% [3][11]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 19.11 yuan in 2023 to 37.56 yuan in 2027 [3][11]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 24.2 in 2023 to 12.3 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics over time [3][12]. Business Performance - The company’s revenue breakdown for Q1 2025 includes: - Accommodation bookings: 5.54 billion yuan (+23.2%) - Transportation ticketing: 5.42 billion yuan (+8.4%) - Travel vacation: 0.95 billion yuan (+7.2%) - Business travel management: 0.57 billion yuan (+12.1%) - Other businesses: 1.37 billion yuan (+33.0%) [8]. - The overall gross margin for the reporting period was 80.4%, slightly down by 0.8 percentage points, while the operating profit margin (OPM) was 29.2%, exceeding the expected 27.5% [8]. Market Outlook - The company’s outbound and international business continues to show high growth, with outbound hotel and flight bookings exceeding 120% of pre-pandemic levels, and international OTA platform bookings increasing by over 60% year-on-year [8]. - The report anticipates a 15%-20% growth in outbound business for 2025, driven by high-margin outbound operations [8].

Core Insights - The travel market is experiencing steady growth during the Dragon Boat Festival in 2025, with local and surrounding travel dominating at a 50% share [1] - The popularity of short-distance overseas travel to destinations like Japan, South Korea, and Thailand is notable, alongside a continued interest in inbound tourism [1][4] Domestic Travel Trends - Local and surrounding travel is the primary focus for the 2025 Dragon Boat Festival, with a significant increase in bookings for trips within a "3-hour high-speed rail circle" [1][2] - Bookings for surrounding travel have increased by 23% year-on-year, indicating a stable growth trend in the domestic market [1] - The search interest in traditional cultural experiences during the festival has surged by 50% compared to last year, highlighting a strong interest in local customs [2] Event-Driven Travel - The presence of various themed music festivals and concerts during the Dragon Boat Festival has led to a noticeable increase in cross-city travel [2] - Major events such as concerts by popular artists have sold out, contributing to a spike in hotel bookings in cities hosting these events [2] Family and Pet Travel - The proportion of family travel has significantly increased, with family-oriented bookings accounting for 35% of total orders on travel platforms [3] - There is a growing trend of pet-friendly travel, with a 20% increase in the popularity of pet-friendly hotels compared to last year [3] Inbound and Outbound Travel - Inbound tourism remains strong, with hotel search interest for inbound travel increasing by over 100% during the Dragon Boat Festival [3] - Popular outbound destinations include Japan and South Korea, with unique locations like Egypt and Russia seeing significant hotel booking increases [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 591 (USD 76) [6][3] Core Insights - The company reported a 16% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, aligning with market expectations, while adjusted net profit rose by 3%, exceeding market expectations by 9% due to lower-than-expected marketing expenses [2][3] - Domestic hotel bookings showed a robust growth of 20% year-on-year during the May Day holiday, while cross-border orders increased by 30%, with inbound bookings surging by 150% [3][2] - The company is expected to continue outperforming the overall tourism market in Q2, benefiting from a stable supply and user engagement [3][2] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 net revenue reached RMB 13.9 billion, a 16% increase year-on-year, with accommodation bookings up 23% and transportation ticketing revenue up 8% [2][3] - Gross profit increased by 15% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 80%, down 1 percentage point from the previous year [2][3] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 4.2 billion, maintaining a net profit margin above 30% [2][3] Business Segment Analysis - Domestic business remains strong, with double-digit growth in hotel night stays and a narrowing decline in Average Daily Rate (ADR) expected in Q2 [3][2] - International OTA hotel and flight bookings grew over 60% year-on-year, with significant contributions from the Asia-Pacific region [3][2] - The company anticipates that international business will account for over 20% of total revenue in the medium to long term, expanding into the Middle East and Europe [3][2] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company has adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025, projecting a 15% year-on-year revenue growth, with accommodation bookings expected to grow by 16% and transportation bookings by 9% [3][2] - The target price corresponds to a 20x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [3][2] - The company has repurchased USD 84 million worth of shares year-to-date, with a remaining buyback capacity of USD 516 million [3][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 591 (USD 76) [3][6][23] Core Insights - The company reported a 16% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, aligning with market expectations, while adjusted net profit rose by 3%, exceeding expectations by 9% due to lower-than-expected marketing expenses [2][3] - Domestic hotel bookings showed a robust growth of 20% year-on-year during the May Day holiday, and international bookings are expected to maintain high growth rates, contributing to long-term revenue support [3][4] - The company is adjusting its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025, projecting a 15% year-on-year revenue growth, with accommodation bookings expected to grow by 16% and transportation bookings by 9% [3][5] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 net revenue reached RMB 139 billion, a 16% increase year-on-year, with accommodation bookings up 23% and transportation ticketing revenue up 8% [2][3] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 42 billion, reflecting a 3% increase year-on-year, with a net profit margin maintained above 30% [2][3] - The company expects continued growth in Q2, benefiting from a stable supply and user engagement, with international OTA business projected to maintain high growth rates [3][5] Business Outlook - The domestic business outlook remains stable, while international operations are in an investment phase, with expectations for revenue growth to outpace the overall tourism market [3][4] - The company plans to expand its market presence from Asia-Pacific to the Middle East and Europe, with international business expected to contribute over 20% of total revenue in the medium to long term [3][5] Shareholder Returns - The company has repurchased USD 84 million worth of shares year-to-date, with a remaining buyback capacity of USD 516 million, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted from HKD 605 to HKD 591, indicating a potential upside of 16.9% [1][13]. Core Insights - The company reported first-quarter results that exceeded market expectations, with a revenue of RMB 13.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16%. The adjusted net profit increased by 3% to RMB 4.2 billion, surpassing market forecasts by 10% [5][6]. - The demand for leisure travel remains strong, with expectations for a 14% revenue growth in the second quarter. The company anticipates stable growth in business volume as the competitive landscape improves [5][6]. - Adjustments to revenue and profit forecasts were made due to anticipated impacts from tariff disruptions on outbound business travel [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: The total revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 61.694 billion, with a growth rate of 15.6%. This is a slight decrease from previous estimates [4]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The adjusted operating profit for 2025 is expected to be RMB 18.084 billion, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 17.927 billion, reflecting a net profit margin of 29.1% [4][14]. - **Segment Performance**: The hotel accommodation segment is projected to generate RMB 25.946 billion in 2025, while transportation ticketing is expected to contribute RMB 22.261 billion [4][8]. Market Position and Trends - The company's market capitalization stands at approximately HKD 330.23 billion, with a 52-week high of HKD 586.00 and a low of HKD 310.20 [3]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 3.20 million shares, indicating active market participation [3]. Future Outlook - The company expects continued growth in hotel and transportation segments, with hotel nights in mainland China projected to increase by 10-15% and outbound hotel nights by 15-20% in the upcoming quarters [5][8]. - The competitive landscape is expected to ease some pressure on monetization, allowing for more stable profit margins moving forward [5].