半导体设备厂商的估值一直随着制造技术的升级换代而发生变化。Tokyo Electron曾受益于 半导体细微化竞争而股价快速上涨。然而随着生成AI的普及，半导体制造所需要的技术发生改 变，资金正集中流向业绩增长预期较高的爱德万测试…… 日本半导体制造设备厂商的市场估值正在发生改变。9月10日，爱德万测试（Advantest）的 股价总市值约20年来首次超过了位居日本该行业第一的Tokyo Electron（TEL）。爱德万测 试的市值首次突破10万亿日元大关。随着人工智能（AI）的需求增长，半导体制造所需要的 技术发生变化，资金正集中流向业绩增长预期较高的爱德万测试。 在9月10日的东京股票市场上，爱德万测试的股价一度较上一交易日上涨3%，达到1万3140 日元，连日刷新上市以来高位。前一日，美国半导体大企业英伟达（NVIDIA）宣布将于2026 年底前向市场投放AI半导体新产品，市场对被视为该公司主要供应商的爱德万测试的业绩增长 预期随之增强。爱德万股票的当日收盘价上涨3%，达到1万3125日元。 摩根大通证券的分析师鹿内美欧指出："在半导体领域，技术革新的关注焦点已从'前工序'转向（相当 于制造工序最后阶段 ...

Core Insights - The profitability of top chip equipment manufacturers is diverging, with some losing momentum due to declining sales in China, while others are capitalizing on the demand for AI chips [2][5] - Among ten manufacturers from Japan, the US, and Europe, five reported a year-on-year decline in net profit or lower growth compared to the previous year [2] - The combined net profit of these manufacturers has remained robust, growing approximately 40% for the fifth consecutive quarter, reaching $9.4 billion [2] Group 1: Company Performance - Lam Research's net profit surged by 69%, driven by strong sales of deposition and etching equipment for high-bandwidth memory and advanced logic chips [2] - KLA's net profit increased by 44%, benefiting from growth in inspection and measurement equipment for advanced packaging [2] - ASML Holding, ASM International, and Advantest also reported higher profit growth compared to the same period in 2024 [2] Group 2: Challenges Faced - Tokyo Electron, Screen Holdings, and Teradyne experienced declines in net profit after significant growth of over 50% to 90% in the previous year [5] - A major factor for the decline is the slowdown in sales to China, with nine companies reporting a combined sales drop of 5% to $9.3 billion, accounting for 30% of total sales, down from approximately 40% at the end of 2023 [5] - Tokyo Electron's sales from China accounted for 39%, a decrease of 11 percentage points from the previous year, and growth in its Taiwan business could not compensate for this loss [5] Group 3: Market Outlook - Despite the challenges, five US and European companies expect sales growth in the upcoming quarter, with four Japanese companies also projected to achieve revenue growth [6] - The industry faces uncertainty as Washington considers imposing new semiconductor tariffs and restricting AI semiconductor exports [6] - The total market capitalization of the top ten semiconductor equipment manufacturers is approximately $910 billion, down about 20% from the latest peak in July 2024 [7]

特别声明：以上文章内容仅代表作者本人观点，不代表新浪网观点或立场。如有关于作品内容、版权或其它问 题请于作品发表后的30日内与新浪网联系。 台积电2nm芯片技术流向东京电子公司，日企高层紧急赴台请罪。（看看新闻） 【 齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点 旗下短视频产品 】 ...

Group 1 - The focus is on identifying and analyzing companies that can play a significant role in today's geopolitics and leverage their intellectual property to become future leaders [1] - The investment strategy targets growth companies, particularly in the mid-cap segment, with a focus on sectors such as biotechnology, computer chips, cloud technology, energy, and commodities [1] - A systematic balance sheet analysis will be conducted, as many growing businesses often struggle with funding, while a stress test will be employed to evaluate the safety of each business model [1] Group 2 - Long-term capital appreciation is prioritized over short-term speculation, indicating a strategic investment approach [1] - The analyst has a background in communication and an MBA, enhancing the depth of analysis provided [1] - The analyst aims to provide extensive coverage on the relevant themes and welcomes feedback to improve the quality of insights shared [1]

Core Viewpoint - The investigation into TSMC's chip technology theft has unexpectedly brought attention to Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TEL), a key player in the semiconductor manufacturing equipment sector, due to the involvement of a former employee in the case [1][2]. Group 1: Investigation and Company Response - Six individuals have been arrested in connection with the alleged theft of TSMC's trade secrets, including a former TEL employee, prompting TEL to dismiss the involved employee and cooperate with the ongoing investigation [1][2]. - TEL has stated that there is currently no evidence of trade secrets being leaked to third parties, but details remain limited due to the judicial review stage of the case [2][3]. Group 2: TEL's Role in the Semiconductor Industry - TEL plays a crucial role in the global semiconductor manufacturing industry, providing essential equipment for major clients like TSMC, Samsung Electronics, and Intel [2][3]. - The company has access to clients' long-term technology roadmaps, which is vital for offering suitable equipment solutions and maintaining a competitive edge [2]. Group 3: Market Impact and Challenges - TEL's stock price has seen a cumulative decline of over 4% since the TSMC incident was revealed, despite a partial recovery on a recent Friday [1]. - The company is facing challenges due to rising tensions between its two major trading partners, the U.S. and China, with approximately 40% of its revenue coming from mainland China [3]. - Recent market conditions have forced TEL to lower its profit expectations, leading to an 18% drop in its stock price due to anticipated order cancellations and weak demand in the Chinese market [3].

Tokyo Electron在台湾的办公地点（8月6日，台湾新竹） 在被扣留的3人中，两人是台积电的员工，1人是以前曾在台积电任职的Tokyo Electron的技术人员。台 积电的员工涉嫌将机密信息拍成照片等泄露给Tokyo Electron的技术人员…… 日本大型半导体设备企业Tokyo Electron于8月7日发布消息称，关于台湾当局以涉嫌非法获 取台积电（TSMC）机密信息为由展开调查的案件，已证实与Tokyo Electron台湾子公司的1 名前员工有关。台湾于2022年新设"经济间谍罪"，正在致力于遏制技术外流。在台湾开展业 务的日本企业被要求进行严格的信息管理。 Tokyo Electron表示，涉案的前员工已被惩戒解雇，公司正在全面配合台湾司法部门的调 查。在Tokyo Electron的调查中，"目前并未发现相关机密信息泄露至外部"。 8月5日，台湾高等检察署发布消息称，已以涉嫌非法获取台积电的机密信息为由，扣留了台 积电的3名前员工。这些人涉嫌试图非法获取与2纳米尖端半导体相关的机密信息。 据当地媒体报道，在被扣留的3人中，两人是台积电的员工，1人是以前曾在台积电任职的 Tokyo El ...

Core Viewpoint - Tokyo Electron (TEL) has publicly addressed the TSMC chip technology leak incident, confirming the dismissal of an employee from its Taiwan subsidiary involved in the case [1] Group 1: Incident Overview - TSMC has reported a leak of chip technology, with several former employees allegedly attempting to obtain proprietary information related to 2nm chip development and production [1] - The confidential information is believed to have been directed to a device engineer at Tokyo Electron, who previously worked in TSMC's system integration department [1] Group 2: Company Response - Tokyo Electron has stated that it adheres to the highest standards of legal compliance and ethical conduct, implementing a zero-tolerance policy towards such violations [1] - The company has taken strict disciplinary action against the involved employee and is fully cooperating with judicial investigations [1] - An internal investigation by Tokyo Electron found no evidence that the confidential information was leaked to third parties [1]

Group 1: Energy Storage Industry - The energy storage giant, Hichain Energy, is facing a personnel crisis during its critical IPO period in Hong Kong, impacted by the bankruptcy of Powin, the third-largest energy storage integrator in the U.S., which threatens Hichain's overseas strategy [3] - Hichain Energy's overseas revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3.7 billion yuan, with the U.S. market accounting for 60.5%, and Powin contributing 2.239 billion yuan in sales [3] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) has launched a comprehensive offensive against Hichain Energy, filing a lawsuit for patent infringement and seeking 150 million yuan in damages [3] Group 2: Semiconductor Equipment Industry - Tokyo Electron, the fourth-largest semiconductor equipment manufacturer globally, plans to invest 1.5 trillion yen from fiscal years 2025 to 2029, which is 1.8 times the investment of the previous five-year period [4] - The company holds leading positions in several key equipment sectors, including coating and developing, gas chemical etching, diffusion furnaces, and batch deposition, with AI application-related equipment revenue accounting for 30% of total sales [4] - Tokyo Electron is implementing a "dual strategy" by expanding sales of "less advanced process" semiconductor equipment to China, which has increased the revenue share from the Chinese market to 43% in Q3 of this year, up from 24% in the same period last year [4]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 1 Aug 2025 中国电子 China (Overseas) Technology 全球科技业绩快报：东京电子 1Q26 Global Tech Earnings Snapshot: TEL 1Q26 姚书桥 Barney Yao barney.sq.yao@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 东京电子 FY1Q26财务表现符合预期，研发与资本支出显著增加：东京电子 FY1Q26（2025 年 4-6 月）净销售额 5495 亿日元，环比降 16.1%、同比降 1.0%，符合市场预期；营业利润 1446 亿日元，环比降 21.3%、同比降 12.7%，营业 利润率 26.3%；毛利率 46.2%。研发费用同比增 16.3% 至 621 亿日元，资本支出同比增 120.2% 至 528 亿日元，主要 用于极端激光剥离（XLO）技术量产线建设及宫城研发中心扩建。 ...

（原标题：黑天鹅突袭！刚刚日本大蓝筹东京电子罕见暴跌！） 突然暴跌！ 就在刚才，日本大蓝筹东京电子崩了，股价暴跌18%。原因是，该公司大幅下调了本财年（截至2026年 3月）的营业利润计划，并预计削减年度股息。市场对本财年半导体投资可能出现延迟甚至下降的担忧 加剧。 根据该公司7月31日发布的公告，该公司将本财年的营业利润预期下调至5700亿日元，较上一财年下降 18%。此前的计划为7270亿日元，远低于市场预期（7190亿日元）。财年伊始，该公司曾预计2026年1 —3月季度的投资将有所增加，但由于一些前沿逻辑领域投资的复苏以及包括中国在内的成熟领域的投 资趋势，投资额未达预期。该公司还将年度股息预期从618日元下调至485日元。 三井住友日兴证券分析师花谷武志在7月31日的报告中写道，他意识到包括中国在内的市场前景近期略 有好转，因此这"令人意外，并留下了负面印象"。花旗证券分析师芝野正弘也在报告中写道，该公司解 释说，2026年1—3月和4—6月季度很可能是短期收益的底部，但未来市场对下一财年的预测也很有可能 被大幅下调。 罕见暴跌 市值达12.5万亿日元的日本大蓝筹——东京电子今日早盘突然崩了。该股较 ...