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Tokyo Electron (TOELY) Upgraded to Strong Buy: What Does It Mean for the Stock?
ZACKS· 2025-07-23 17:01
Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TOELY) appears an attractive pick, as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). This upgrade is essentially a reflection of an upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.A company's changing earnings picture is at the core of the Zacks rating. The system tracks the Zacks Consensus Estimate -- the consensus measure of EPS estimates from the sell-side analysts covering the stock -- for the current and following years.T ...
光刻机锁死日本工厂运转?材料大国陷困局,氢能芯片能否弯道超车
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-04 00:25
Group 1 - The article highlights Japan's precarious position in the semiconductor supply chain, particularly due to U.S. restrictions on exports of critical materials and technologies [1][3] - Japan is home to 23% of the world's semiconductor raw material factories, particularly in Kumamoto, which produces high-purity fluorinated polyimide essential for 3nm chips [1] - The U.S. has imposed conditions on Japan's exports, including the requirement for EUV lithography machines to have geofencing systems, effectively monitoring Japan's semiconductor capabilities [3] Group 2 - Japan's reliance on the U.S. for raw materials is increasing, with 43% of its high-purity rare earth production directed to North America, raising concerns about becoming a technology dependency nation [5] - Toshiba's 2023 financial report indicates a 12% drop in yield for silicon carbide chips due to a lack of domestic etching equipment, while Shin-Etsu Chemical faces rising wafer costs from using U.S. substitutes [6] - The average age of semiconductor engineers in Japan is 51, with a 38% decrease in young professionals over five years, indicating a talent crisis in the industry [6] Group 3 - Japan is exploring alternative technologies, such as quantum computing and hydrogen energy chips, as part of a strategic pivot in its semiconductor approach [8] - Panasonic has developed a miniaturized hydrogen production reactor, and advancements in hydrogen fuel cell technology have been made at the University of Tokyo [10] - Hitachi has created a "three-layer protection" verification system to enhance security in semiconductor material transport [11] Group 4 - Chinese manufacturers are benefiting from Japan's technological constraints, with new domestic etching machines utilizing expired Japanese patents and lower-cost rare earth extraction methods [13][14] - In 2023, Japan was compelled to relax 63 expired patent licenses, leading to a significant outflow of semiconductor talent to China [14] - The article suggests that the ongoing semiconductor conflict is a reflection of broader resource competition and emphasizes the need for Japan to rebuild its innovation ecosystem independently [16]
BERNSTEIN:全球半导体资本设备-全球半导体资本设备追踪报告(2025 年 4 月),同比增长 8%;东京电子第一季度业绩或超预期
2025-05-29 14:12
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment** industry, specifically analyzing the **Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE)** market, with data from the **SEAJ** (Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan) [2][18]. Core Insights - **WFE Growth**: In April, Japan's SPE (Semiconductor Production Equipment) billing increased by **15% YoY** in USD and **8% YoY** in JPY. The 3-month average billing showed a **27% YoY** increase in USD and **15% YoY** in JPY, indicating a cyclical upward trend since mid-CY2023 [3][22]. - **Tokyo Electron (TEL)**: The billing data suggests that TEL's revenue for Q1 may exceed consensus expectations, with a predicted **-1% QoQ** decline, better than the consensus estimate of **-9% QoQ**. This indicates potential upside for TEL, especially as the company anticipates a stronger second half of the year [4][27][31]. - **Future Projections**: The global WFE market is expected to remain flat YoY in **CY2025** at **$108 billion** and grow by **6%** to **$115 billion** in **CY2026**. This growth is anticipated despite weaker spending from China, which is expected to be offset by increased DRAM spending and a recovery in NAND [5][19]. Company-Specific Insights - **Tokyo Electron (TEL)**: Rated as **Outperform** with a price target of **¥33,800**. TEL is the largest Japanese SPE supplier and is expected to gain market share and expand margins due to competitive pricing following yen depreciation [9]. - **DISCO**: Also rated as **Outperform** with a price target of **¥41,300**. DISCO holds an **85% market share** in grinders and dicers, benefiting from the growing demand for advanced packaging technologies [10]. - **Kokusai**: Rated as **Outperform** with a price target of **¥3,640**. The company is expected to see increased adoption of batch ALD technology, particularly in NAND applications [11]. - **Advantest**: Rated as **Market-Perform** with a price target of **¥7,060**. The company benefits from rising testing intensity for HBM and AI GPUs [11]. - **AMAT and LRCX**: Both rated as **Outperform** with price targets of **$210** and **$95**, respectively. AMAT is expected to benefit from secular WFE growth, while LRCX is positioned well for a NAND upgrade cycle [14]. Additional Insights - **China's Demand**: Despite expectations of a decline in China's WFE imports, the situation appears more resilient than previously feared, with YTD March imports remaining relatively stable. This suggests that the decline may not be as severe as the projected **-30%** [22]. - **Market Dynamics**: The competitive landscape includes both global players and Chinese suppliers, with domestic substitution driving growth for companies like NAURA and AMEC in China [16][17]. Conclusion - The semiconductor capital equipment industry shows promising growth prospects, particularly for key players like Tokyo Electron, DISCO, and Kokusai. Despite challenges in the Chinese market, the overall outlook remains positive, with expectations of gradual recovery and market share gains for Japanese equipment manufacturers.
4月30日电,东京电子表示,计划投入3000亿日元研发资金以实现未来最大程度增长。
news flash· 2025-04-30 08:21
智通财经4月30日电,东京电子表示,计划投入3000亿日元研发资金以实现未来最大程度增长。 ...
东京电子:美国关税影响未在预测中反映。
news flash· 2025-04-30 07:35
东京电子:美国关税影响未在预测中反映。 ...
Tokyo Electron (TOELY) Could Find a Support Soon, Here's Why You Should Buy the Stock Now
ZACKS· 2025-04-01 15:00
Understanding Hammer Chart and the Technique to Trade It This is one of the popular price patterns in candlestick charting. A minor difference between the opening and closing prices forms a small candle body, and a higher difference between the low of the day and the open or close forms a long lower wick (or vertical line). The length of the lower wick being at least twice the length of the real body, the candle resembles a 'hammer.' In simple terms, during a downtrend, with bears having absolute control, a ...
TEL(TOELY) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2024-08-08 19:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, net sales reached JPY 555.0 billion, a 1.4% increase from the previous quarter [5] - Gross profit was JPY 264.0 billion, reflecting a 3.1% increase, with a gross profit margin of 47.6%, up by 0.8 percentage points [6] - Operating income increased by 14.1% to JPY 165.7 billion, with an operating margin of 29.9%, up by 3.4 percentage points [7] - Net income attributable to owners of the parent was JPY 126.1 billion, a 1.0% increase from the previous quarter [8] - Total assets were JPY 2.4955 trillion, with cash and cash equivalents declining by JPY 34.0 billion to JPY 438.5 billion [12] - The equity ratio stood at 70.3%, with net assets increasing by JPY 12.8 billion to JPY 1.773 trillion [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales to non-memory customers accounted for 72%, while DRAM and non-volatile memory accounted for 26% and 2% respectively, indicating a decline in DRAM and non-volatile memory sales [9] - Field solution sales were JPY 118.1 billion, a decline of JPY 1.2 billion, primarily due to decreased used equipment and modification sales [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales composition showed an increase in Taiwan's proportion, along with growth in North America and China compared to the previous quarter [10] - The WFE market is expected to grow in 2025, driven by strong demand for AI servers and recovery in DRAM and NAND investments [19][26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to capture future growth opportunities by investing JPY 253 billion in R&D for fiscal 2025, with expectations for record highs in net sales and profit margins [28] - The focus is on advanced packaging and testing technologies, with new product releases aimed at meeting the growing demand in these areas [23][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management noted that while some customers are adjusting their investment plans, the overall WFE market is recovering, particularly in AI-related devices [17][19] - The company anticipates double-digit growth in the WFE market for calendar 2025, driven by increased investments in advanced memory and logic [19][26] Other Important Information - The company completed a share repurchase of JPY 79.9 billion, reflecting its commitment to returning value to shareholders [16] - The total return amount for the fiscal year is expected to reach JPY 319.8 billion, a record high [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding the SPE new equipment sales forecast - The company indicated that AI-related devices are driving growth, with some customers shifting from logic to memory production due to space limitations [36][38] Question: Factors for upward revision in financial estimates - The management highlighted that customer investment plans have been pulled forward, particularly for logic and AI, contributing to the positive outlook [44] Question: Insights on the China market forecast - The company expects the proportion of sales from China to decrease, despite ongoing investments, as advanced area investments are anticipated to grow [58][96] Question: Updates on cryogenic etching technology - The evaluation of cryogenic etching technology is progressing well, with expectations to secure production orders in the near future [51][53] Question: Trends in the WFE market for 2025 - The company expects significant investment growth in DRAM and advanced logic, particularly for AI servers and industrial applications [56][60] Question: Clarification on gross profit margin improvements - The management explained that improvements in product mix and the absence of inventory loss contributed to the high gross profit margin in Q1 [64][70]
TEL(TOELY) - 2024 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2024-05-14 01:06
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported operating income of JPY456.2 billion, a decline of 26.1% year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 24.9%, down 3.1 percentage points due to continued investment in future growth, particularly in R&D [5][9] - Net sales were JPY1,830.5 billion, a decrease of 17.1% year-on-year, attributed to a slowdown in customers' capital investment [8][10] - Net income attributable to owners of parents was JPY363.9 billion, down 22.8% year-on-year [10] - Gross profit was JPY256.1 billion, an increase of 15.3%, with a gross profit margin of 46.8%, down 1.1% due to strategic changes and inventory costs [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - DRAM accounted for 27% of sales, with both sales and proportion increasing due to active investment by Chinese customers [15] - Non-volatile memory sales and proportion declined due to low capital investments from customers [15] - Sales to non-memory customers accounted for 66% of total sales, while non-volatile memory accounted for 7% [45] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The proportion of sales in China exceeded 40% in fiscal 2024, driven by strong investment in mature nodes, despite adjustments in leading-edge node investments [14] - The WFE market is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2025, driven by demand for AI-related devices [21][84] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to invest JPY1.5 trillion in R&D and JPY700 billion in capital expenditures over the next five years to maximize growth potential [24] - The focus is on developing technologies for next-generation products and enhancing resources both domestically and internationally [23] - The company aims to expand its market share in high-value-added areas and is actively investing in R&D to capitalize on future opportunities [53] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while leading-edge chip makers have suppressed investment, there is a pull-forward in investment for mature nodes, leading to an upward revision of financial estimates during the fiscal year [19] - The company expects a recovery in capital investment for NAND and advanced logic/foundry driven by AI server demand, with an annual growth rate of 31% anticipated [21] - Management expressed confidence in achieving a gross profit margin of 47% in the second half of fiscal 2025, driven by high-value-added products [72] Other Important Information - The Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program of up to JPY80 billion, reflecting a comprehensive assessment of various factors [27][101] - The company has set a target year of 2040 for achieving net zero emissions, advancing its mid-term environmental goals [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the outlook for the WFE market? - Management expects double-digit growth in the WFE market next year, with no changes in their perspective despite previous reductions in leading-edge chip maker investments [31] Question: How does the company view the situation in China? - Management indicated that they cannot comment on export control regulations but noted that they will follow government decisions and do not see a decreasing trend in investment in China [70][112] Question: What are the reasons for the expected increase in NAND sales in the second half of the fiscal year? - The company anticipates increased sales to NAND customers based on shared long-term production plans, with significant orders already received [126] Question: What is the strategy regarding R&D expenses? - The company plans to maintain flexibility in R&D investments, focusing on high-value-added products and not setting an upper limit on the R&D-to-sales ratio [109][111] Question: What is the timeline for hybrid bonding technology? - Management expects hybrid bonding technology to start gaining traction within two to three years, with backside power delivery networks potentially following in three to four years [140]
Are You Looking for a Top Momentum Pick? Why Tokyo Electron Ltd.
Zacks Investment Research· 2024-04-15 17:01
Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock's recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.Whil ...
What Makes Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TOELY) a New Strong Buy Stock
Zacks Investment Research· 2024-03-13 17:00
Investors might want to bet on Tokyo Electron Ltd. (TOELY) , as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). An upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices -- has triggered this rating change.The Zacks rating relies solely on a company's changing earnings picture. It tracks EPS estimates for the current and following years from the sell-side analysts covering the stock through a consensus measure -- the Zacks Consensus Estimate.Since a chang ...