特斯拉 V3 即将落地，有望成为明星产品， 行业发展加速 ——机器人产业跟踪 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 近期我们看到特斯拉持续预热第三代机器人，我们认为产业发展有望迎来提速，行业的 景气度也将随之提升。向前看，我们预计行业将进入产能扩建，而在扩产过程中，我们 认为供应商的制造和管理优势非常重要，因此制造和经营能力领先的企业更具投资机 会。相关标的：拓普集团(601689，买入)、三花智控(002050，买入)、五洲新春 (603667，买入)、恒立液压(601100，未评级)、震裕科技(300953，买入)。 风险提示 厂商生产不及预期、场景需求落地不明确导致低于预期、国家政策变化导致行业发展放 缓、行业融资不及预期、模型发展和数据采集慢于预期、订单执行效果低于预期、产品 降价风险。 机械设备行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 机械设备行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 06 日 看好（维持） 杨震 执业证书编号：S0860520060002 香港证监会牌照：BSW113 yangzhen@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 顺应人形机器人拟人化趋势， ...

Core Viewpoint - Jim Cramer discussed Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and expressed a positive outlook on the company, highlighting its performance and potential in the market [1][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Tesla's shares have increased by 7.3% over the past year but have decreased by 7% year-to-date [2]. - Mizuho raised its share price target for Tesla to $540 from $530 while maintaining an Outperform rating [2]. - Needham maintained a Hold rating on Tesla's shares, emphasizing the company's strong global presence and robust margins [2]. Group 2: Business Initiatives - Tesla is making significant progress in its artificial intelligence initiatives, which are seen as a key component of its business strategy [2]. - The company's global presence is contributing to its ability to achieve strong profit margins [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Cramer views Tesla as a technology company and supports its potential in the market, particularly in relation to CEO Elon Musk's comments about China [2]. - There is a belief that while Tesla is a promising investment, certain AI stocks may offer higher returns with lower risk [3].

一水 发自 凹非寺 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI 真的要问三个小时的问题？Are you fucking serious？ 虽然一上场就先吐槽，但微醺的马斯克这次确实聊嗨了！ 他在Dwarkesh Patel（顶级播客主理人、采访对象都是硅谷大佬）的最新一期节目中，用整整三小时回应一切。 △外Dwarkesh Patel、里John Collison 聊太空GPU、聊AI、聊Optimus……凡是你想知道的老马的生意经，这次几乎都被Patel挖了个遍。 （另一位作陪的是Stripe联合创始人及总裁John Collison） 本文在不改变原意的基础上，由AI对访谈内容文字实录进行了精校。 为什么要在太空建数据中心？ 主持人：数据中心成本中只有10-15%是能源成本，其余都是GPU成本，但把GPU搬到太空维护起来更困难，这部分成本会更高，所以你为什么要做这件 事？ 马斯克： 其实核心还是能源供应问题。看看中国以外的电力产出数据，全球其他地区基本处于停滞状态——或许有微弱增长，但整体趋平。而中国的发 电量正在快速攀升。若在海外建设数据中心，电力从何而来？规模扩张时尤其如此。 芯片产能正接近指数级增长，电力产能 ...

Elon Musk says everyone in the world will have a robot. ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's financial performance in 2025 shows a significant decline in both revenue and profit, with a focus on the company's future capital expenditures and new business ventures as potential growth drivers [4][6][18]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, Tesla's revenue decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, totaling $948.27 billion for the year, a decline of 2.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders fell over 60% in Q4, with an annual profit of $3.794 billion, down 46.5% [6]. - Tesla's current price-to-earnings ratio exceeds 400, indicating a high valuation despite the profit drop. The stock price fell 3.45% on the first trading day post-earnings but recovered the next day [6][7]. Impact of Bitcoin - In Q4 2025, Tesla's net profit was $840 million, down $1.477 billion, significantly impacted by Bitcoin price fluctuations. The company held 11,509 Bitcoins, with a fair value drop from approximately $1.315 billion to $1.074 billion, leading to a $240 million loss in fair value adjustments [9]. - For the entire year, Tesla's net profit of $3.794 billion was affected by a $670 million loss from Bitcoin price declines, contrasting with a $600 million gain in 2024 [9][10]. Non-GAAP Profit Analysis - Excluding Bitcoin price changes, Tesla's Non-GAAP net profit for 2025 was $5.858 billion, down about 30% year-on-year, primarily due to the "Inflation Reduction Act" affecting regulatory credit sales and a significant increase in R&D expenses [10][11]. - The decline in regulatory credit sales from $2.763 billion to $1.993 billion negatively impacted profits by approximately $800 million, while R&D expenses rose over 40%, increasing the R&D expense ratio from 4.6% to 6.8% [10]. Automotive Business Performance - Tesla's global vehicle deliveries in 2025 totaled 1.6361 million, a decline of 8.6%. The automotive sales revenue was $658.21 billion, down 9.19% year-on-year, driven by an increase in lower-priced vehicle sales and promotional discounts [13][14]. - The U.S. market saw a significant drop in sales due to the "Inflation Reduction Act," while the Chinese market remained relatively stable with a 4.8% decline in retail sales [15][16]. Capital Expenditure Plans - Tesla plans to exceed $20 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, which is 2.3 times the $8.53 billion spent in 2025 and 1.35 times the net cash flow from operating activities of $14.75 billion [18]. - This expenditure will primarily support AI projects and the development of various production lines, including those for Robotaxi and humanoid robots [18][20]. Future Outlook - The aggressive capital spending raises concerns about future profitability, as it could lead to significant depreciation expenses impacting net profits [19]. - Tesla's focus on AI infrastructure and new business ventures like Robotaxi and humanoid robots is seen as essential for long-term growth, with cash flow management becoming a critical factor for stock price movements [24].

Group 1 - Elon Musk emphasizes that the future of AI deployment will be in space rather than on Earth, predicting that within 36 months, space will become the cheapest location for AI deployment due to limitations on Earth's energy expansion [2][13][14] - SpaceX aims to achieve an extreme goal of launching Starship 10,000 to 30,000 times annually, with each launch carrying 100 to 150 tons, which is essential for scaling AI computing power in space [2][21] - Musk forecasts that in five years, the annual increase in AI computing power in space will surpass the cumulative total of all AI computing power on Earth, potentially reaching hundreds of gigawatts [14][21] Group 2 - The current global electricity supply is nearing a plateau, with most countries outside of China experiencing stagnant or minimal growth, making energy a bottleneck for large-scale data centers outside of China [5][9] - Space offers advantages for solar energy generation, including continuous power without atmospheric interference, leading to a cost of electricity in space that is one-tenth of that on Earth [7][13] - The physical constraints of building new data centers on Earth, which can take 30 to 36 months, further highlight the need for space as a viable alternative for AI infrastructure [8][10] Group 3 - Musk's vision includes utilizing lunar resources, such as silicon and aluminum, to manufacture solar panels and cooling structures on the Moon, while transporting complex chips from Earth [3][23] - The Moon could serve as a launch point for AI satellites, with a projected capacity of one petawatt (1 million gigawatts) annually, representing true scalability for AI in space [23] - SpaceX's ultimate goal remains Mars, but commercial viability must be established at each stage, starting with orbital data centers [3][24] Group 4 - The semiconductor industry faces challenges in scaling production, particularly in storage chips, which are critical for AI applications, leading Musk to plan for a dedicated storage chip factory [25][26] - The U.S. manufacturing sector is at a structural disadvantage compared to China due to population size and labor intensity, necessitating a shift towards automation and robotics for competitive advantage [27][28][30] - The development of humanoid robots, like Optimus, is seen as a strategic move to enhance manufacturing capabilities and reduce reliance on human labor in high-intensity jobs [32][34][35]

2026年1月，特斯拉在第四季度财报电话会议上宣布重要战略调整：首席执行官埃隆·马斯克表示，公司 将停止生产Model S和Model X两款旗舰车型，并将加州弗里蒙特工厂改造为Optimus类人机器人生产 线。 这一决策标志着特斯拉正式启动从"汽车制造商"向"人工智能+机器人"多元科技企业的转型。 马斯克曾表示，机器人的未来市场价值有望超过汽车业务，预计到2050年相关市场估值将达25万亿美 元，占特斯拉未来整体价值的80%。按照公开规划，特斯拉将于2026年第一季度发布第三代Optimus机 器人，该版本为首款面向量产的设计，计划2027年向公众发售，其定位为可完成工厂作业、家庭服务等 多种基础任务的双足智能机器人。弗里蒙特工厂的Optimus机器人生产线设计年产能达100万台，同时该 工厂预计将扩大员工规模。 01 当马斯克又开始"造梦"，电动汽车领域的成功还能在机器人身上复制吗？ 首先，Optimus机器人面临技术与供应链的双重瓶颈，量产难度远超预期。Optimus机器人拥有全新的供 应链体系，与特斯拉现有汽车供应链几乎无重叠，这意味着特斯拉需要重新搭建机器人核心供应链，而 核心零部件的产能与可靠性成 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla stock has experienced a significant decline, dropping nearly 8% during the week, particularly noted in Thursday trading [1] Company Summary - Tesla's stock performance has been notably poor, with a decrease of almost 8% over the past week [1]

Core Viewpoint - The co-CEO of Zhiji Auto, Liu Tao, publicly apologized to Tesla for inappropriate comments made regarding the 2022 Chaozhou accident, which he previously criticized as a case of negligence. This incident has drawn significant attention due to ongoing disputes and legal actions between the two companies [1][3]. Group 1: Incident Overview - The Chaozhou accident involved conflicting statements from both parties, with subsequent investigations revealing that the accident was attributed to driver error according to the police report [3]. - Following Liu Tao's disparaging remarks, Tesla filed a lawsuit seeking an apology and compensation, resulting in a court ruling against Liu, who was found to have defamed Tesla under the guise of oversight [3]. - Liu Tao agreed to publicly apologize and compensate Tesla 50,000 yuan after losing the initial court case and opting for mediation in the second instance [3]. Group 2: Liu Tao's Controversial Statements - Liu Tao has a history of making controversial statements and marketing missteps, having publicly apologized at least four times since 2022 for various issues, including improper driving during a promotional event and misrepresenting product specifications [3][4]. - Notable incidents include a 2022 apology for dangerous driving behavior during a test drive of the Zhiji L7 and a 2024 apology for incorrectly stating the specifications of the Xiaomi SU7 motor during a product launch [3][4]. Group 3: Sales Performance - Zhiji Auto has consistently failed to meet its annual sales targets for three consecutive years, with a significant decline in sales growth year-over-year. In January, the company's sales reportedly halved compared to the previous month [4]. - Sales targets and actual performance for Zhiji Auto are as follows: - 2023: Target of 45,000 units, actual sales of 38,253 units (85% completion) - 2024: Target of 120,000 to 130,000 units, actual sales of 65,505 units (55% completion) - 2025: Target of 100,000 units, actual sales of 81,017 units (81% completion) [5].

Core Insights - The distinction between "pure body" and "body + large model" factions in humanoid robotics is becoming increasingly blurred, indicating a shift in industry focus towards intelligent interaction rather than just hardware capabilities [1][2][4] Group 1: Industry Trends - Industry leaders are recognizing the importance of integrating advanced models into humanoid robotics, with a notable shift in narrative as traditional "body" manufacturers begin to emphasize the significance of "brains" [2][5] - The competition is evolving from merely enhancing production capacity to a new battleground focused on intelligent interaction and model development [4][10] Group 2: Strategic Collaborations - Several body manufacturers are actively pursuing partnerships to enhance their model capabilities, such as the strategic collaborations between Songyan Power and Huichen, and Zhongqing Robotics with Fengwu Technology [6][8] - The launch of various models by companies like Yushu Technology and Ant Group reflects a rapid development in the foundational technology for embodied intelligence [8][9] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The humanoid robotics market is maturing, with over 140 companies and more than 330 products released, indicating that humanoid robots are no longer rare [10][13] - The production capabilities have significantly improved, with a new platform capable of producing 5,000 units annually, highlighting the industry's transition from a challenging task to a mature industrial capability [11][13] Group 4: Opportunities and Challenges - The shift towards model integration presents both challenges and opportunities, as companies must compete with established players while also developing their own model capabilities [14][15] - The market is not closing opportunities for smaller companies, as flexibility and targeted approaches can still lead to breakthroughs in niche areas [15][16] Group 5: Valuation and Investment Landscape - The valuation of companies in the embodied intelligence sector is heavily influenced by their model capabilities, with leading firms being those that are model-driven or utilize a dual approach [16][17] - The industry's focus is shifting from mere production to a comprehensive system capability, emphasizing the need for both physical and intelligent components to succeed [19][20]