Consistent with its recent streak of monthly revenue outperformance, TSMC (NYSE: TSM )( OTC:TSMWF ) has done it again with stronger-than-expected quarterly results. The company grew revenue by 41% y/y to $33.1 billion, outpacing the upper range of its previous guidanceAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinio ...

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Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of TSM, NVDA, AMD either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whet ...

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing has demonstrated significant technical advancements this year, showcasing its leadership in the semiconductor industry [1] Group 1 - The company has delivered a technical clinic, indicating its strong performance and innovation in semiconductor manufacturing [1]

Group 1: Oracle's Financial Performance - In the first fiscal quarter of 2026, Oracle's revenue grew by 12% to $14.9 billion, with cloud computing revenue increasing by 28% to $7.2 billion [1] - SaaS revenue reached $3.8 billion, growing by 11%, while software revenue declined by 1% to $5.7 billion, indicating a mixed overall performance [1] - Oracle's signed projects worth hundreds of billions of dollars have generated significant market excitement, with expectations of additional multi-billion dollar contracts in the coming months [1] Group 2: Market Reaction and AI Investment - Following the earnings report, Oracle's stock price surged by 41% intraday and closed nearly 36% higher, marking the largest single-day increase in its history, adding $244 billion to its market capitalization [1] - The market is betting on companies increasing AI investments and heavily building data centers, with Nvidia and OpenAI also leading in this space [1] Group 3: AI Bubble Concerns - There are growing concerns among investors and entrepreneurs about a potential AI bubble that could trigger global economic risks [2] - OpenAI's CEO, Sam Altman, acknowledged some areas of AI may be experiencing bubble-like conditions but emphasized that OpenAI is making genuine progress in technology and business development [4][5] Group 4: Industry Dynamics and Collaborations - OpenAI is at the center of complex collaborations with major tech companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Oracle, creating intricate relationships in computing power and capital [6] - The intertwining of investments and customer relationships has led to inflated revenue expectations for several companies, with some projections exceeding current revenues by multiples [6] Group 5: Financial Engineering and Market Skepticism - Experts in Silicon Valley are wary of the potential distortion of true industry demand due to complex financing arrangements, labeling some transactions as "round-tripping" or "vendor financing" [7] - Altman acknowledged the unprecedented nature of these investments and loans but pointed out the rapid revenue growth of OpenAI, despite the company not yet being profitable [8] Group 6: Semiconductor Demand and AI Growth - TSMC reported better-than-expected earnings and raised its revenue growth forecast for 2025 to nearly 35%, reflecting strong AI demand [8] - TSMC's role as a key manufacturer for high-end AI chips positions it favorably in the growing AI market, with strong signals from clients regarding demand [8][9] Group 7: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The current AI investment surge is compared to the late 1990s internet bubble, with concerns about timing and demand growth potentially leading to a similar outcome [10] - Despite the potential for a valuation correction in AI, the foundational infrastructure being built may support future growth in mobile internet and cloud computing [10] Group 8: Strategic Decisions for AI Companies - Companies pursuing AI opportunities face the dilemma of whether to expand production or adopt a wait-and-see approach, which could impact their market positioning [11] - The primary drivers of AI growth are currently stable tech giants, which are likely to maintain growth even if the hype subsides, while smaller energy companies without revenue may face severe risks [11]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC reported record net profit for Q3 2025, but its stock price opened high and then fell due to market expectations of stronger AI demand and tight capacity, while TSMC remained conservative without increasing its capacity guidance or updating its CoWoS plans [1][5][11] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached $34.14 billion, a 30% year-over-year increase, with net profit of $15.5 billion, up 39% year-over-year [2][7] - Q3 gross margin improved to 59.5%, exceeding analyst expectations of 57.1%, while operating margin rose to 50.6% [1][7][10] - Q4 revenue guidance indicates a slight decline of 1% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting full capacity utilization [1][9] AI Demand and Market Trends - TSMC's Chairman noted that AI demand is significantly stronger than three months ago, driven by exponential growth in tokens, which are doubling approximately every three months [4][5][12] - The company is adopting a "Foundry 2.0" strategy to integrate advanced packaging and system-level performance optimization to meet AI-driven semiconductor demand [4][30] - TSMC's clients, including Nvidia, are increasingly relying on TSMC for chip production, indicating sustained demand for GPU chips [3][6] Capacity and Capital Expenditure - Q3 capital expenditure was $9.7 billion, with a total of $29.39 billion for the first nine months, reflecting ongoing capacity expansion to meet high demand [2][11] - TSMC plans to allocate 70% of its 2025 capital budget to advanced process technologies, with total capital expenditure expected to be between $40 billion and $42 billion [11][12] Customer Signals and Industry Outlook - TSMC is receiving strong signals from its customers' customers for increased capacity to support their business, reinforcing confidence in the fundamental demand for semiconductors [5][13] - The company is closely monitoring AI-related demand and is prepared to expand capacity in response to structural growth in the market [12][14] Global Manufacturing and Expansion Plans - TSMC is accelerating capacity expansion in Arizona, with plans for advanced packaging facilities to support customer needs [15][26] - The company is also expanding its manufacturing footprint in Japan and Europe, with ongoing projects in Kumamoto and Dresden [15][16] Technology and Innovation - TSMC's N2 technology is on track for production later this year, with expectations for rapid capacity ramp-up driven by demand in AI and high-performance computing applications [16][28] - The company emphasizes the importance of system-level performance over traditional transistor scaling, aligning with industry shifts [6][30]

Market Overview - Major U.S. index futures indicate a flat open on Friday, following a downturn on Thursday due to bank credit concerns [1] - The Dow fell by 301.07 points (0.7%) to 45,952.24, S&P 500 declined by 41.99 points (0.6%) to 6,629.07, and Nasdaq dropped by 107.54 points (0.5%) to 22,562.54 [5] Company-Specific Developments - Jefferies (JEF) shares rose by 4% in pre-market trading after Oppenheimer upgraded its rating to Outperform, despite a previous drop of over 10% due to concerns about exposure to bankrupt auto parts company First Brands [2] - American Express (AXP) reported third-quarter results that exceeded analyst estimates and raised its full-year guidance, contributing to pre-market strength [3] - Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) reported a larger-than-expected surge in third-quarter profits driven by strong AI chip demand, although its shares fell by 1.6% after reaching a record intraday high [7] Banking Sector Insights - Concerns about bad loans emerged following the bankruptcies of First Brands and Tricolor Holdings, impacting regional banks like Zions Bancorp (ZION) and Western Alliance (WAL) [6][9] - The KBW Bank Index fell by 3.6% amid these concerns, reflecting significant weakness in banking stocks [9] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported a substantial pullback in regional manufacturing activity, with the diffusion index for current general activity plunging to -12.8 in October from a positive 23.2 in September [8] International Market Reactions - Asian stocks declined due to heightened concerns over U.S. banks' loan portfolios and escalating Sino-U.S. trade tensions, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.0% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index plummeting by 2.5% [12][13] - European stocks also moved sharply lower amid renewed concerns about the U.S. banking sector, with the German DAX Index down by 1.4% and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index down by 1.0% [17][18]

Core Insights - The third quarter earnings season has begun, with analysts expecting a 7.9% increase in earnings per share for S&P 500 companies, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of positive growth but a slowdown from the 12% growth in Q2 [1][2] Financial Institutions Performance - Major banks including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and BlackRock reported their quarterly results, with additional reports from Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and others following [2][4] - Ally Financial reported earnings per share of $1.18, exceeding estimates of $0.96, with revenue of $2.17 billion surpassing expectations of $2.10 billion [7][8] - Truist's net income rose to $1.3 billion, or $1.04 per diluted share, beating analyst estimates of $0.99 per share, with noninterest income increasing 11% to $158 million [9][10] - Comerica's net interest income grew over 7% to $574 million, while noninterest income declined to $264 million due to slower capital markets activity [11][12] - Fifth Third reported net interest income of $1.52 billion, a 7% year-over-year increase, with earnings per share growing 17% to $0.91, surpassing estimates of $0.86 [14][15] - U.S. Bancorp reported net income of $2.00 billion, or $1.22 per share, beating estimates and achieving record revenue of $7.3 billion [22][23] - Charles Schwab's earnings were $1.26 per share, with record revenue of $6.13 billion, a 27% year-over-year increase [24][25] Technology Sector Insights - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) reported a 39% year-over-year profit surge in Q3 and raised its 2025 revenue outlook, anticipating mid-30% annual sales growth [27][28] - TSMC's revenue reached approximately $32.2 billion, exceeding estimates, with earnings per share of $2.92 also beating expectations [28][29] Other Notable Earnings Reports - Morgan Stanley's profits surged 45% in Q3, driven by a 44% increase in deal-making fees to $2.1 billion and a 24% rise in trading fees [36][37][38] - Citigroup's net income for Q3 was $3.8 billion, or $1.86 per diluted share, with total revenue growing 9% to $22.1 billion, driven by increased deal-making and trading activities [46][47]

Core Insights - TSMC reported strong financial results for Q3 2025, driven by robust AI demand, with advanced process revenue accounting for over 70% of total wafer revenue [1][2] - The company achieved a record net profit of NT$452.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39.1% [1] - TSMC's advanced process revenue breakdown shows 3nm at 23%, 5nm at 37%, and 7nm at 14%, with advanced processes (7nm and below) making up 74% of total revenue [1] Financial Performance - TSMC's consolidated revenue for Q3 was NT$989.92 billion, a 30.3% year-on-year increase and a 6% quarter-on-quarter growth, translating to US$33.1 billion [1] - Gross margin improved to 59.5%, exceeding analyst expectations of 57.1%, while operating margin reached 50.6%, also surpassing market forecasts [1] - For Q4, TSMC forecasts revenue between US$32.2 billion and US$33.4 billion, with a gross margin of 59% to 61% and an operating margin of 49% to 51% [2] Market Segmentation - The HPC platform remains TSMC's largest revenue source, contributing 57% of total revenue, while smartphone revenue grew by 19% to account for 30% [2] - IoT and automotive sectors also saw revenue growth of 20% and 18%, respectively, each representing 5% of total revenue [2] - Declines were noted in the DEC sector, down 20% to 1%, and other sectors down 8% to 2% [2] Advanced Process Development - TSMC is making progress on its 2nm process, expected to enter trial production this quarter, with mass production anticipated in 2026 [3] - The company is also launching the N2P process for enhanced performance and efficiency, alongside the A16 process designed for high-performance computing applications [3] - TSMC's leadership in advanced processes is reinforced by strong demand for AI-related applications, with ongoing efforts to address supply constraints in AI chip manufacturing [3] Capacity Expansion - TSMC is accelerating capacity expansion at its Arizona facility and preparing to upgrade technology for advanced processes [4] - A second plot of land near the existing Arizona plant is being acquired to support expansion plans, while a second wafer fab in Japan is under construction [4] - The company estimates capital expenditures for 2025 to be between US$40 billion and US$42 billion, with approximately 70% allocated to advanced processes [4]

Core Insights - TSMC reported a 39.1% year-over-year increase in third-quarter profit, driven by strong demand for AI chips, and raised its 2025 revenue growth outlook for the second time this year [1][2][4] Financial Performance - TSMC's revenues reached NT$989.92 billion, exceeding the expected NT$977.46 billion, while net income was NT$452.3 billion, surpassing the estimate of NT$417.69 billion [3] - The company expects annual sales growth in the mid-30% range, a few percentage points higher than previous forecasts [2] Market Trends - The AI market is experiencing positive developments, leading to increased demand for semiconductor products, as noted by TSMC's CEO [4] - TSMC's stock has surged 75% over the past six months, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 26% increase, bringing its market capitalization to $1.56 trillion [5] Valuation Metrics - TSMC's trailing P/E ratio is 34.74X, higher than the industry average of 29.72X, with a price/book ratio of 10.53X compared to the industry's 9.70X [6] Trade Relations - TSMC is monitoring U.S. tariff developments and may receive exemptions due to its significant investments in U.S. facilities [7] Investment Opportunities - Investors can consider TSMC through various ETFs, including SP Funds S&P World (ex-US) ETF, SP Funds S&P Global Technology ETF, and others, which have significant allocations to TSMC [8]