Each week we run a DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) model on a company from our watchlist. This week’s pick: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM)ProfileTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) is the world’s leading dedicated semiconductor foundry, manufacturing advanced logic chips used across data centers, AI accelerators, smartphones, PCs, automobiles, and industrial electronics. The company’s process leadership, scale advantages, customer diversity, and technological roadm ...

Make no mistake. I think Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) will be an excellent stock to own in 2026. It has strong tailwinds blowing in its favor and top-notch execution. However, putting all of your eggs in one basket is a disaster waiting to happen. So, investors need some alternative AI stocks to diversify a bit in the artificial intelligence (AI) space. Three stocks that I think can make for strong alternative investments to Nvidia are Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM), Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO), and AMD (NASDAQ: ...

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE:TSM) is one of the stocks Jim Cramer talked about, along with the memory shortage. Cramer explained how the company’s earnings and management commentary were “great news” for the semiconductor capital equipment makers. He said: I think this industry has a lot more going for it. Two weeks ago, Taiwan Semi, the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturer, reported a total blowout quarter. More important, management said that the demand’s on fire. They ...

1月29日，挪威央行投资管理（Norges Bank Investment Management）正式发布 2025 年年度投资报告。 数据显示，全球最大主权财富基金之一的挪威政府全球养老基金（Government Pension Fund Global，GPFG）在2025年实现15.1%的整体回报率，基金规模 于2025年12月31日达到21.268万亿挪威克朗（约合15.47万亿人民币）。 从基金规模变动细节来看，2025年基金会计收益达2.362万亿克朗（约1.72万亿人民币），但受挪威克朗对多国主要货币升值影响，汇率因素导致基金价值 缩水。同时，扣除管理费用后的资金净流入为319亿克朗，多重因素共同作用下，基金全年规模净增1.526万亿克朗。 从资产类别表现来看，权益类投资成为基金收益的核心驱动力。2025年，基金股票投资回报率高达19.3%，显著跑赢其他资产类别。其中，科技、金融及 基础材料板块表现尤为突出，贡献了权益投资的主要收益。挪威央行投资管理首席执行官尼古拉・丹根（Nicolai Tangen）在声明中强调："2025年基金交 出了极具说服力的成绩单，科技、金融与基础材料领域的优质股票持续 ...

Group 1 - Microsoft reported a 17% year-over-year revenue growth to $81.3 billion, with a slowdown in cloud business growth; capital expenditures increased by 66% to a record $37.5 billion [1] - Meta's Q4 revenue reached $59.89 billion, with earnings per share of $8.88, driven by strong advertising business; Q1 revenue and full-year capital expenditure guidance exceeded expectations [1] - Tesla's Q4 revenue declined by 3% to $24.9 billion, but operating profit of $1.41 billion and gross margin of 20.1% surpassed expectations; Elon Musk announced the halt of Model S/X production to shift focus to humanoid robot Optimus [1] - IBM's Q4 revenue grew by 12% to $19.69 billion, with cumulative AI business orders exceeding $12.5 billion [1] - Caterpillar's Q4 revenue increased by 18% to $19.13 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $5.16, both exceeding expectations [1] - Blackstone reported Q4 inflows of $71.48 billion, the highest level in over three years; total assets reached $1.275 trillion [1] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank reported a net profit of €1.3 billion for Q4 and plans to repurchase €1 billion in stock [3] - STMicroelectronics saw a slight recovery in Q4 sales to $3.33 billion, although demand for automotive chips remains weak [3] - Google integrated Gemini AI features into the Chrome browser, introducing tools like Nano Banana and Personal Intelligence [3] - Alphabet's autonomous taxi service Waymo aims to launch a driverless ride-hailing service in London by Q4 [3] - TSMC raised its CoWoS capacity targets for 2026-2027 and is reassessing its advanced packaging expansion plans [3] - Alibaba's Pingtouge launched a high-end AI chip "Zhenwu 810E," which has been deployed in multiple large-scale clusters on Alibaba Cloud [3] - Toyota anticipates a 4.6% year-over-year increase in global sales in 2025, reaching 11.3 million units, setting a new record [3] - Used car retailer Carvana faced a short-sell report from Gotham Research, accused of overstating net profits by over $1 billion [3] - Snap established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Specs, to develop augmented reality (AR) glasses [3]

Group 1: AI Infrastructure Spending - AI infrastructure spending is projected to increase by nearly 42% in 2023, reaching almost $1.4 trillion, driven by investments from hyperscalers, AI companies, and chipmakers [1] - The significant spending in AI infrastructure is expected to continue into 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory for the sector [1] Group 2: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) - TSMC is identified as a key player in the AI infrastructure market, serving as a primary manufacturer of chips for AI data centers [3][4] - The company is expected to benefit regardless of market share fluctuations among chip designers like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Intel, positioning TSMC as a major winner in AI infrastructure investments [4] - TSMC's revenue is projected to grow by nearly 30% in 2026, an increase from the 25% growth anticipated for 2025, reflecting strong demand for AI chips [5] - The company may raise prices of its advanced chip nodes by 3% to 10% this year, with its latest 2-nanometer chips priced at a 10% to 20% premium over previous models, further enhancing revenue potential [6] - TSMC's earnings growth could exceed the anticipated 34% increase in 2026, supported by robust demand for AI chips and price hikes, following a 51% earnings increase last year [7]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant cycle of growth driven by AI demand, leading to a resurgence in semiconductor equipment and materials, with a focus on capital expenditure and production capacity expansion [6][19][20]. Group 1: Semiconductor Market Dynamics - The semiconductor market faced a major crisis starting in 2021 due to pandemic-related disruptions, leading to a global chip shortage that affected various sectors, particularly automotive [6][7]. - The panic buying of chips created a closed-loop of high demand and low supply, resulting in extreme price inflation for certain components, such as automotive chips [8][11]. - In 2023, the global semiconductor market is projected to decline by 11% to $533 billion, with memory markets experiencing a nearly 40% contraction [11][12]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Trends - Semiconductor capital expenditure surged by 35% in 2021 and an additional 15% in 2022, driven by capacity expansion plans from major players like TSMC and Samsung [11][12]. - In 2023, global semiconductor capital expenditure is expected to total $169 billion, reflecting a 7% decline, with memory sectors facing a 21% drop [12][13]. Group 3: AI and Semiconductor Demand - The demand for AI servers is significantly higher than traditional servers, with AI servers requiring 8 times the DRAM and 3 times the NAND capacity [13][14]. - The anticipated growth in AI applications is expected to lead to another chip shortage by the end of 2024, as supply struggles to keep pace with surging demand [14][15]. Group 4: Semiconductor Equipment Market - The semiconductor equipment market is projected to grow significantly, with Morgan Stanley raising its forecast for the global semiconductor capital equipment market growth rate to 16% by 2026, reaching $136 billion [19][20]. - The demand for semiconductor equipment is driven by the need for expanded production capacity in response to the AI-driven demand surge [16][19]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investing in semiconductor equipment and materials is crucial for capturing industry growth, with ETFs providing a practical approach for investors to gain exposure to leading companies in the sector [24][25]. - The semiconductor equipment ETF, E Fund (159558), has shown strong performance, reflecting the high demand and growth potential in the semiconductor equipment market [21][25].

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the greatest investment opportunity of the current era, with a strong emphasis on the urgency to invest now [1][13] - The energy demands of AI technologies are significant, with data centers consuming as much energy as small cities, leading to concerns about power grid strain and rising electricity prices [2][3] Investment Opportunity - A specific company is highlighted as a critical player in the AI energy sector, owning essential energy infrastructure assets that are poised to benefit from the increasing energy demands of AI [3][7] - This company is not a chipmaker or cloud platform but is positioned as a "toll booth" operator in the AI energy boom, collecting fees from energy exports [5][6] Financial Position - The company is noted for being debt-free and holding a substantial cash reserve, amounting to nearly one-third of its market capitalization, which provides a strong financial foundation [8] - It is trading at less than 7 times earnings, making it an attractive investment compared to other firms in the energy and utility sectors [10] Market Trends - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the onshoring trend driven by tariffs, as well as the surge in U.S. LNG exports under the current administration's energy policies [14][5] - The influx of talent into the AI sector is expected to drive continuous innovation and advancements, further solidifying the importance of investing in AI-related companies [12] Future Outlook - The future of AI is closely tied to energy infrastructure, with the company playing a pivotal role in the next-generation power strategy, particularly in nuclear energy [7][14] - The potential for significant returns is emphasized, with projections suggesting a possible 100% return within 12 to 24 months for investors who act now [15][19]

Price Increases in Semiconductor and Electronic Components Industry - Resonac announced a price increase of 30% for copper-clad laminates and adhesive films starting March 1, 2026, due to tight supply and rising costs of raw materials and labor [3] - Nanya Plastics will raise prices for all CCL products and PP by 8% starting November 20, 2025, citing increases in international copper prices and raw material costs [7] - TrendForce predicts that the average capacity utilization rate of global 8-inch wafer foundries will rise to 85%-90% in 2026, leading to price increases of 5%-20% for wafer foundry services across the board [8] - TSMC plans to increase prices for advanced technology nodes (5nm, 4nm, 3nm, 2nm) by 8%-10%, with a 50% increase for 2nm wafers starting in 2026 [10] - SMIC has implemented a price increase of approximately 10% for certain capacities [11] - Several packaging and testing companies have begun raising prices, with increases nearing 30% due to high demand and full capacity utilization [13] Memory Chip Price Increases - Samsung has raised NAND flash prices by over 100% and plans to increase server DRAM prices by 60%-70% in Q1 2026 [15] - SK Hynix is also raising server DRAM prices by 60%-70% and has negotiated significant price increases for LPDDR memory used in iPhones, approaching 100% [16] - Micron has announced a general price increase of approximately 20% across its product lines [17] - NAND flash wafer prices increased by over 10% in December 2025, with SSD prices rising by 15%-20% [24] Passive Components Price Adjustments - Various passive component manufacturers, including Yageo and Panasonic, have announced price increases for capacitors and resistors ranging from 8% to 30% [26][31] - ROHM Semiconductor has raised prices for thick film resistors by 8%-20% [38] - Multiple manufacturers are adjusting prices due to rising raw material costs and supply chain pressures [47] Power Devices and Other Electronics - Huazhong Microelectronics confirmed price increases for certain IGBT products due to rising copper and raw material costs [48] - Several semiconductor companies, including Jiangxi Tianyi and Wuxi Zongxiang Technology, have raised prices for specific products by 10%-20% [82][83] CPU and GPU Price Trends - AMD and Intel are planning to increase server CPU prices by up to 15% due to high demand from large enterprises [62] - NVIDIA and AMD are expected to raise GPU prices in early 2026, with multiple price adjustments anticipated throughout the year [79]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is undergoing a historic transition as Nvidia has officially surpassed Apple to become TSMC's largest customer, driven by the surging demand for AI computing capabilities, indicating a fundamental restructuring of the global chip market [3][4]. Group 1: Nvidia's Rise and Market Dynamics - Nvidia's dominance as TSMC's top customer reflects a steep growth curve in AI-centric chip production, with Nvidia occupying more advanced process capacity than any other client [3][4]. - Nvidia's H100 and H200 data center GPUs, manufactured using TSMC's 4nm and 5nm processes, are priced over $30,000 each, significantly higher than smartphone processors, altering the semiconductor value chain's incentive structure [5][6]. - Over the past 18 months, Nvidia's wafer orders have grown exponentially, leading TSMC to expand its advanced packaging capacity to meet Nvidia's CoWoS requirements, which are critical for modern AI accelerators [6]. Group 2: Apple's Semiconductor Strategy - Apple's replacement by Nvidia does not indicate weakness but rather reflects a maturation of its product lineup and a more restrained hardware update strategy [7]. - Apple completed its transition to self-developed chips for its Mac product line in 2022, leading to a temporary spike in chip demand, which has since normalized [7]. - Despite a relative decline in its share of TSMC's revenue, Apple remains a key customer and is expected to continue using advanced processes for its upcoming A19 and M5 chips [7][8]. Group 3: TSMC's Capacity Allocation Challenges - TSMC faces increasing complexity in balancing the demands of major clients like Nvidia and Apple while also servicing other companies such as AMD and Qualcomm [9][10]. - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2024 exceeds $40 billion, aimed at expanding capacity in Taiwan, Arizona, Japan, and potentially Europe [10]. - The shift towards AI chip demand is influencing TSMC's technology development focus, necessitating a fundamental change in process optimization strategies to cater to high-performance computing [10]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Market Implications - Nvidia's strengthened relationship with TSMC occurs amid other foundries struggling to catch up in advanced processes, giving TSMC significant bargaining power [11]. - Geopolitical uncertainties complicate long-term capacity planning for Nvidia and TSMC, as prioritizing high-margin AI chip production may extend lead times and increase costs for other clients [11]. - Major tech companies like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are accelerating their custom chip initiatives to reduce reliance on Nvidia and secure manufacturing resources amid tightening capacity [11]. Group 5: Future Trends in Semiconductor Manufacturing - The relationship between Nvidia, Apple, and TSMC is expected to continue evolving, with TSMC planning to enter mass production of 2nm processes by 2025 [12][13]. - The long-term trajectory of AI chip demand remains uncertain, with potential shifts in relative positions between Nvidia and Apple depending on market conditions and product innovations [12]. - TSMC's global expansion adds new dimensions to the relationship, as the willingness of Nvidia and Apple to shift core production to higher-cost, lower-risk U.S. facilities remains uncertain [13].