中新社北京10月17日电 题：民进党当局所谓"守护"台湾产业只是空谈 中新社记者 容海升 美国商务部长卢特尼克日前称，将与台湾达成贸易协议，坚持美台芯片制造"五五分"构想。民进党当局 虽予以否认，称双方持续就关税问题磋商，但掩盖不了一个事实——台湾最具竞争力的产业，正在沦为 任由美国巧取豪夺的"弱势产业"。 民进党当局领导人赖清德在所谓"双十"讲话中宣称要"守护这些宝贵的资产"，只是空谈。 事实上，美国近年针对台湾的"索取"可谓层层加码——从要求台积电赴美建厂、强行获取供应链数据， 到如今提出美台芯片制造"五五分"构想，其意图已不言自明，就是要控制集成电路这一台湾最具竞争力 的核心优势产业。 在此背景下，民进党当局所谓"守护这些宝贵的资产"，表面上是体现对台湾经济命脉的重视，实情却是 这些核心产业在美国压力下逐步失去自主权，"守护"的口号与现实背道而驰。 面对所谓芯片制造"五五分"构想，赖清德在接受美国媒体专访时表示，台湾很乐意跟美国一起努力，共 同协助美国再工业化并成为人工智能(AI)的世界中心，让美国持续领导世界，也让美国能再度伟大。这 种表态本身，就是对"守护"的最大讽刺。 评论：民进党当局所谓"守护" ...

Core Insights - The Giverny Capital Asset Management ("GCAM") model portfolio showed a net return of 6.79% for Q3 2025, underperforming the S&P 500 TR which returned 8.12% during the same period [2][4] - Significant declines in key holdings, particularly Constellation Software, which dropped 18% in September due to the sudden retirement of its CEO, Mark Leonard, impacted overall portfolio performance [4][5] - The investment landscape is characterized by a mix of economic uncertainty and stock market exuberance, with concerns about tariffs and the agricultural sector, yet enthusiasm for AI investments remains high [6][7] Performance Overview - The portfolio's year-to-date return stands at 12.57%, trailing the S&P 500's 14.83% [2] - Over the past three years, the portfolio has achieved an annualized return of 24.05%, while the S&P 500 has returned 24.94% [2] - The portfolio's largest holdings include Arista Networks, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms, which collectively represent a significant portion of the total assets [30] Key Holdings and Transactions - The portfolio initiated a 3.5% position in Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), which is positioned as a leading manufacturer in the semiconductor industry, capitalizing on the growing demand for high-performance chips [19][21] - Medpace Holdings, a contract research organization, saw a substantial increase in stock value, rising over 50% in one day following a strong earnings report [11][12] - The portfolio has trimmed positions in several strong performers, including Alphabet and Meta, while fully exiting Credit Acceptance due to concerns over its competitive position [25] Market Context - The semiconductor industry is experiencing rapid advancements, with TSMC leading in manufacturing capabilities, particularly in producing chips at smaller nanometer specifications [20][22] - The market is currently focused on AI-related stocks, which have significantly contributed to S&P 500 returns since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 [13][14] - Concerns about geopolitical risks, particularly regarding Taiwan, are prevalent, as TSMC is a critical supplier for major tech companies [22][24] Investment Philosophy - The portfolio emphasizes investments in companies with founder involvement in management, which is believed to align interests and foster strong corporate cultures [8] - The management team expresses confidence in the quality of their holdings and the leadership of companies like Medpace and TSMC, despite broader market uncertainties [7][12] - The approach remains cautious regarding the sustainability of the current market rally, with a focus on long-term value creation rather than short-term speculation [7][26]

业 及 产 业 2025 年 10 月 17 日 存储涨价延续，关注 GB300 开始 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 杨海晏 A0230518070003 yanghy@swsresearch.com 李天奇 A0230522080001 litq@swsresearch.com 袁航 A0230521100002 yuanhang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 陈俊兆 A0230124100001 chenjz@swsresearch.com 杨紫璇 A0230524070005 yangzx@swsresearch.com 联系人 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 证 券 研 究 报 告 电子 切换 看好 ——25 年 9 月台股电子板块景气跟踪 相关研究 陈俊兆 (8621)23297818× chenjz@swsresearch.com 资料来源：iFind 同花顺，申万宏源研究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 第2页 共7页 简单金融 成就梦想 - ⚫ AI 领域：支出热潮持续。台 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector, particularly the Sci-Tech Innovation Board's chip index, is experiencing fluctuations, with significant movements in individual stocks and ETFs, reflecting the ongoing dynamics in the AI chip market and broader semiconductor industry [1][3][4]. Market Performance - As of October 17, 2025, the Sci-Tech Innovation Board chip index (000685) decreased by 3.36%, with individual stocks showing mixed results, such as Weijie Chuangxin (688153) rising by 3.28% and Baiwei Storage (688525) falling by 7.96% [1]. - The Sci-Tech Chip 50 ETF (588750) also saw a decline of 3.18%, with a recent price of 1.55 yuan, but it had a cumulative increase of 7.88% over the past month as of October 16, 2025 [1]. Fund Flows and Liquidity - The Sci-Tech Chip 50 ETF experienced a significant growth in scale, increasing by 7.69 billion yuan over the past week, ranking first among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF's shares grew by 5.70 million over the same period, also leading among comparable funds [3]. - Despite a recent net outflow of 24.24 million yuan, the ETF saw a net inflow of 1.308 billion yuan over the last five trading days, averaging 262 million yuan per day [3]. Company Developments - Cambricon is expected to release its Q3 2025 financial report on October 18, 2025, which will include revenue and net profit data [3]. - On October 15, 2025, Cambricon signed a strategic cooperation agreement with SenseTime to develop solutions that integrate hardware and software, focusing on the Syuan series chips [3]. Industry Trends - TSMC reported better-than-expected Q3 financial results, boosting market optimism regarding the demand for AI chips, which is seen as a bellwether for the semiconductor manufacturing industry [4]. - TSMC remains optimistic about AI growth, indicating that demand is stronger than previously anticipated and that they are working to increase production capacity by 2026 [4]. Investment Recommendations - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors with high growth potential, such as computing power, foundry services, and equipment, as well as storage and analog sectors benefiting from a recovery in the industry cycle [5]. - The Sci-Tech Chip Index is noted for its higher "chip content," indicating stronger growth potential and elasticity compared to other indices [5][6]. Index Characteristics - The Sci-Tech Chip Index focuses on the upstream and midstream segments of the semiconductor industry, with a core segment representation of 95%, which is higher than other indices [6][8]. - The index is designed to reflect the development trends of the semiconductor industry more responsively due to its quarterly rebalancing [7]. Performance Metrics - The Sci-Tech Chip Index is projected to have a net profit growth rate of 71% for H1 2025 and an estimated 100% growth for the entire year, significantly outperforming its peers [9]. - The index has shown a maximum increase of 186.5% since its inception, indicating strong upward elasticity compared to other industry indices [10][11].

Market Tide:🏆 Gold becomes 1st asset ever to cross a $30T market cap🏄‍♂️ BlackRock to launch a GENIUS Act-aligned fund tailored for stablecoin issuers🌊 Chip stocks rally after $TSMC’s bullish outlook on AI demand#SmartDelivery https://t.co/bonNKlYnuy ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The upstream prices of energy and agriculture have declined recently. Specifically, international oil prices have dropped significantly, and pork prices have also fallen [1]. - The chip manufacturing industry is showing a strong trend. TSMC's Q3 financial report exceeded market expectations, boosting market optimism about the increasing demand for AI chips. TSMC is confident in the positive development of the AI market [1]. - China's foreign trade has withstood pressure and shown a stable and positive trend in the first three quarters of this year. The Ministry of Commerce will strengthen policy reserves and introduce new policies to stabilize foreign trade [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Production Industry - TSMC's Q3 revenue and net profit exceeded market expectations, indicating strong demand for AI chips. The company is confident in the AI market. In terms of technology and capacity, the A16 process is expected to be mass - produced in the second half of the year, the 2 - nanometer process will be mass - produced later this quarter, and multiple phases of 2 - nanometer wafer fabs are being prepared in Taiwan. The second wafer fab in Japan has started construction [1]. Service Industry - The Ministry of Commerce will strengthen policy reserves and introduce new policies to stabilize foreign trade. It will work on releasing policy effectiveness, promoting trade, and deepening trade cooperation [1]. Upstream - Energy: International oil prices have declined significantly [1]. - Agriculture: Pork prices have fallen [1]. Midstream - Chemical: The PTA operating rate is at a medium level compared to the same period in the past three years [1]. - Energy: The coal consumption of power plants has decreased [1]. Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities have rebounded from a low level [1]. Key Industry Price Indicators - Many agricultural products' prices have declined, such as corn (-1.61%), eggs (-1.63%), palm oil (-1.28%), etc. on October 16 [34]. - Most non - ferrous metals' prices have decreased, including copper (-0.59%), zinc (-1.06%), nickel (-1.18%), etc. on October 16 [34]. - Energy prices have mixed trends. WTI crude oil increased by 7.53%, while Brent crude oil decreased by 6.55% on October 16 [34]. - Chemical product prices generally declined, like PTA (-3.51%), polyethylene (-1.43%), etc. on October 16 [34]. - Real estate - related indices, such as the building materials composite index (-1.49%) and the concrete price index (-0.34%), have decreased on October 16 [34].

巴克莱：将台积电(TSM.US)目标价上调至355美元，此前为330美元。 ...

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - TSMC reported Q3 revenue of $33.1 billion, slightly above the previous guidance of $31.8-33 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 40.8% [4] - Wafer shipments, equivalent to 12-inch wafers, reached 4.085 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, with a gross margin of 59.5%, exceeding the guidance of 55.5%-57.5% [4] - The company expects Q4 revenue to be between $32.2-33.4 billion, indicating a year-on-year growth of 22%, with a gross margin guidance of 59%-61% [4] - The strong demand for AI is driving growth in the semiconductor industry, indicating a sustained high level of industry activity [4] Group 2: Optical Communication Industry - Shijia Photon reported a significant revenue increase of 114.0% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2025, totaling 1.56 billion yuan, with a net profit of 300 million yuan, up 727.7% [4] - The growth is primarily driven by the rapid increase in optical communication demand due to AI [4] - The outlook for the optical communication industry remains positive, supported by TSMC's Q4 performance and the push for a 1ms latency metropolitan optical network in China [4] Group 3: New Energy Vehicle Industry - In September, exports of new energy passenger vehicles reached 217,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 100%, while commercial vehicle exports grew by 35.2% [7] - The total export volume of new energy vehicles for the first nine months was 1.758 million units, a year-on-year increase of 89.4%, with an expected total of around 2.5 million units for the year [7] - The increase in exports is attributed to rising tariffs and non-tariff barriers in the EU, prompting companies to shift focus to regions like the Middle East and Latin America [7] - A new plan aims to build 28 million charging facilities by 2027, supporting over 80 million electric vehicles, indicating sustained growth in the charging infrastructure sector [7] Group 4: Energy Storage Industry - Nanjing Power Storage reported a revenue of 5.32 billion yuan for the first nine months, a year-on-year increase of 17.72%, with a net profit of 1.433 billion yuan, up 37.13% [8] - The growth is mainly driven by increased hydropower generation and the operational mechanisms of pumped storage [8] - The profitability is expected to be influenced by the performance of new energy storage projects and the operational mechanisms in the fourth quarter [8] Group 5: Gaming Industry - Gibit announced a significant increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, with net profit expected to be between 1.032 billion to 1.223 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 57% to 86% [10] - The third quarter alone is projected to show a net profit increase of 177% to 286%, driven by new game launches such as "Staff Sword Legend" and "Question Sword Longevity" [11] - The successful performance of these games in both domestic and overseas markets has significantly contributed to the company's revenue growth [11] - The company is also expanding its global presence with upcoming game launches planned for various regions [11]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC plans to increase the foundry price for 2nm wafers by 50%, which poses challenges for major clients like Qualcomm and MediaTek, potentially impacting their profitability [2][4]. Group 1: Price Increase Impact - Following TSMC's price hike for the N3P process, Qualcomm's mobile chip prices are expected to rise by 16%, while MediaTek's chip prices may increase by approximately 24%, directly affecting the profitability of both companies [4]. - TSMC's factory in Phoenix, Arizona, faces personnel and equipment optimization bottlenecks, leading to production costs that are at least 30% higher than those in Taiwan, raising concerns about price negotiations with existing clients [4]. Group 2: Client Strategies - Qualcomm's CEO, Cristiano Amon, indicated that the company will seek multiple options for wafer foundry services, hinting at the possibility of considering Samsung as a backup option despite Intel's recent success in mass-producing 18A technology [4]. - Samsung's semiconductor foundry division is reportedly competing with TSMC to secure the production order for Qualcomm's next-generation Snapdragon chips, leveraging its nearly 20 years of foundry experience in Texas, which provides a localization advantage over TSMC [5].

Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market - Changfei Optical Fiber Cable (06869) fell over 4%, down more than 40% from its September peak due to declining fiber optic prices and shareholder sell-offs [1] - Solar stocks continued to decline, with Fuyao Glass (03606) down over 3%, New Special Energy (01799) down over 5%, Xinyi Solar (00968) down over 5%, and Folaite Glass (06865) down over 4%. Rumors about the establishment of a polysilicon storage platform were found to be untrue, and future installation demand remains to be observed [2] Group 2: US Stock Market - United Airlines (UAL.US) fell 5.63% after reporting third-quarter revenue slightly below market expectations [3] - TSMC (TSM.US) decreased by 1.60%, with Q3 net profit reaching a record high of 452.3 billion New Taiwan dollars [3] - Micron Technology (MU.US) rose 5.52% as Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating from "hold" to "buy" [4] Group 3: Technology and Innovation - Google (GOOGL.US) increased by 0.17% after launching a new video generation model, Veo 3.1, which improved audio output and editing control [4] - Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO.US) rose 1.69% as it collaborates with OpenAI to enhance drug development speed and success rates [4] Group 4: Other Notable Movements - DoorDash (DASH.US) fell 2.18% after announcing a partnership with Waymo to launch autonomous delivery services [5] - Derin Holdings (01709) rose over 3% after signing a strategic cooperation agreement with Antalpha to promote digital asset business [5] - NIO-SW (09866) increased over 2% after responding to a lawsuit from a Singapore sovereign wealth fund, stating that the allegations have no factual basis [5]