瑞银全球金融市场部中国主管：公司北向日均交易量较2017年提升12倍 智通财经5月19日电，瑞银全球金融市场部中国主管房东明在深交所2025全球投资者大会上表示，一直 以来，瑞银是通过QFII和沪深港通北向资金参与A股的重要经纪商，市场份额一直处于领先地位。在不 断提升交易能力和服务质量的努力下，相较于2017年，公司通过沪深港通进行的北向日均交易量提升了 12倍。未来，瑞银将继续把握中国金融双向开放的机遇，一方面会持续服务好中短线交易型投资者，另 一方面会把服务中长线投资型投资者作为重点的服务方向，同时也期待在衍生品和ETF领域进一步开展 业务。（记者 沈述红） ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS Group is negotiating compensation for clients who suffered losses from complex foreign exchange derivatives sold by the bank, exacerbated by U.S. President Trump's tariff actions that caused significant market volatility [1] Group 1: Client Impact - Hundreds of clients are affected, with some experiencing substantial losses, including clients from Switzerland [1] - Overall losses are estimated to reach hundreds of millions of Swiss francs [1] Group 2: UBS's Response - UBS stated that the majority of its clients hold diversified investment portfolios, which have performed relatively well during the current turbulent period [1] - The bank is working with clients to analyze potential unexpected impacts [1]

Group 1 - UBS Group is negotiating refunds for clients who suffered losses from foreign exchange derivatives, with reported losses amounting to hundreds of millions of Swiss francs [1] - The group is currently "analyzing potential unexpected impacts" related to these losses [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Chinese companies are increasingly issuing overseas, with significant IPOs and large-scale placements in the Hong Kong market, indicating a recovery in the market [2][3] - UBS highlights that the successful placements of major projects like BYD and Xiaomi demonstrate the Hong Kong stock market's capability to support top-tier corporate financing and reflect the strong fundamentals of these companies [2] - The trend of A-share companies choosing to list in Hong Kong is driven by the institutional investor base and financing convenience offered by the Hong Kong market [3] Group 2 - UBS reports a downward trend in the AH premium index, which decreased from around 150 in early 2024 to 134.9 by May 25, 2025, indicating a shift in trading preferences towards H-shares among domestic investors [3] - The Hong Kong stock market remains attractive due to its low valuations and the need for international funds to diversify their investments, supported by its depth and liquidity [4] - There is an expectation of a continued trend of Chinese companies returning to the Hong Kong market for secondary listings, particularly among those that have been exclusively listed in the U.S. [3]

Core Insights - UBS reported a total market value of $540 billion in its Q1 2025 holdings, remaining stable compared to the previous quarter [1][2] - The firm added 1,239 new stocks to its portfolio, increased holdings in 4,632 stocks, reduced holdings in 4,025 stocks, and completely sold out of 944 stocks [1][2] - The top ten holdings accounted for 14.36% of the total market value [1][2] Holdings Summary - The top five holdings include Apple (AAPL) with approximately 60.7 million shares valued at $13.49 billion (2.48% of the portfolio), Microsoft (MSFT) with about 32.9 million shares valued at $12.35 billion (2.27%), Nvidia (NVDA) with around 101.4 million shares valued at $10.99 billion (2.02%), Amazon (AMZN) with approximately 37.6 million shares valued at $7.15 billion (1.31%), and SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with about 12.8 million shares valued at $7.14 billion (1.31%) [3][4] - Notably, SPY saw a significant increase in holdings by 27.95% compared to the previous quarter [3][4] Trading Activity - The turnover rate for the portfolio was 19.64%, with an alternative turnover rate of 8.64% [2] - The average holding period for the top 20 stocks was approximately 20.95 quarters, while the top 10 stocks had an average holding period of 21 quarters [2] Buying and Selling Trends - The top five purchases included SPDR S&P 500 ETF put options, iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF put options, SPDR S&P 500 ETF, SPDR Gold Shares ETF, and Berkshire Hathaway [4][6] - The top five sales included Microsoft, Apple, Google, Tesla, and iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF call options [5][6]

Group 1 - The outlook for China's economy is becoming less pessimistic, with ING raising its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 4.5% to 4.7% [1][4] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for China's GDP growth from 4.0% to 4.6% [1][4] - JPMorgan has also increased its forecast for China's 2025 economic growth from 4.1% to 4.8% [1][2] Group 2 - The reduction of tariffs between China and the US is expected to boost economic optimism, leading to a recovery in stock markets [1][5] - JPMorgan estimates that the average effective tariff rate in the US will decrease from 24% to 14%, resulting in a $300 billion "tax cut effect" [1] - Barclays has updated its outlook for the US economy, stating that a mild recession in the second half of 2025 is no longer the base case scenario [2][1] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 5900 to 6100, citing the positive impact of tariff reductions on corporate earnings [5] - Yardeni Research has also increased its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 6000 to 6500 [5] - The S&P 500 index closed at 5892 points on May 14, reflecting a 4% increase compared to before the announcement of tariff reductions [5]

高盛月内第二次做出上调动作。 "中美关税大幅降低，或助力A股市场重拾上升趋势。"瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟磊认为。 他分析，考虑到低基数效应以及更多支持政策的推出，预计今年A股盈利将呈逐季回升态势。市场估值 方面，更为明确的财政政策支持、进一步的对外开放政策、大力推动民营经济发展等举措，或有助于降 低股权风险溢价。 第一财经获悉，在最新发布的研报中，高盛上调MSCI中国指数和沪深300的目标点位至84点和4600点， 对应潜在上涨空间为11%和17%。同时，该公司维持对中国股票的超配评级。 这是高盛月内第二次做出上调中国股票评级。该公司5月8称，维持对中国股市的增持评级，并上调 MSCI中国指数、沪深300指数的12个月目标点位，从前期的75点和4300点，分别上调至78点和4400点， 对应潜在上升空间为7%和15%。 当时，央行等三部门联合推出多项金融政策。高盛认为，一揽子宽松政策具有针对性，愈发以需求侧为 导向，将目标明确指向稳定房地产市场、支持中小企业发展、促进股东回报以及培育稳定、健康的股市 等。 此次再度上调重要指数目标点位，高盛称，至5月14日，中国股市已完全收复美国"自由日"以来的失 地，M ...

Millennium Management聘请瑞银集团前亚太区股票衍生品主管，是这家730亿美元投资巨头招募投资银 行高管来拓展业务的又一举动。据知情人士称，Ernest Ng将加入Millennium担任高级投资组合经理。Ng 将与前瑞信集团同事Ken Pang共事，后者目前领导Millennium的亚太股票业务主管。（彭博） ...

编者按：5月13日，瑞银策略师发布中国股票策略报告，预判A 股有望重拾上涨动力。瑞银建议投资者战术性增持成长型股 票，以提高投资组合的弹性。在市场成交量回升的情况下，小盘股因其较高的海外营收占比，表现可能优于大盘股。以下为 其主要观点： 中美双方联合宣布相互取消 91% 的累计加征关税，美国将暂停 24% 的对等关税，中国将暂停 24% 的反制关税。双方还将建 立机制，继续就经贸关系展开谈判。 瑞银集团(UBS)的中国经济学家预计，目前美国对中国商品的加权平均关税税率约为 43.5%。从微观层面来看，2024 年非金 融类 A 股上市公司的海外营收占比为 14.3%，电子和家电行业的这一比例更是超过三分之一(见图 4)。 鉴于基数较低(2024 年非金融企业每个季度的收益均同比下降，且降幅逐季扩大)，以及可能出台更多政策支持，瑞银预计今 年 A 股收益将逐季回升。 在估值方面，更明确的财政政策支持、进一步开放以及推动民营经济发展的结构性改革，还有长期资金的流入，都可能有助 于降低股权风险溢价。由于 A 股市场的估值仍大幅低于新兴市场(见图 6)，全球资金可能会持续净流入。 2025 年 A 股基准情形：盈利增 ...

Core Insights - UBS's high-net-worth clients are increasingly withdrawing from dollar assets and shifting towards gold, cryptocurrencies, and Chinese assets [1] - The tension in US-China trade relations is prompting investors to diversify their previously "US-centric" asset allocations [1] - There is a notable increase in investments in alternative assets, commodities, and cryptocurrencies as volatility is expected to persist [1]