金十整理：机构预期今晚20:30公布的美国4月未季调CPI年率（前值：+2.4%） 法巴银行：+2.3%；巴克莱银行：+2.3%；美国银行：+2.3%；凯投宏观：+2.3%； 花旗银行：+2.3%；摩根士丹利：+2.3%；加皇银行：+2.3%；三井住友：+2.3%； 道明证券：+2.3%；富国银行：+2.3%；劳埃德银行：+2.4%；澳新银行：+2.4%； 丹斯克银行：+2.4%；高盛集团：+2.4%；汇丰银行：+2.4%；荷兰国际：+2.4%； 摩根大通：+2.4%；野村证券：+2.4%；丰业银行：+2.4%；荷兰银行：+2.4%； 法兴银行：+2.4%；渣打银行：+2.4%；瑞银集团：2.4%。[路透调查：+2.4%] ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reduction in employee numbers among foreign securities firms in China for 2024, highlighting that this is not indicative of a strategic shift but rather a response to market conditions and policy changes [1][8]. Employee Reduction - Foreign securities firms in China have seen an average employee reduction of 10% in 2024, with notable exceptions like 法巴证券 (French bank) which has not yet commenced operations [2]. - Specific firms such as 高盛 (Goldman Sachs) and 瑞银 (UBS) reported employee reductions of 10.63% and 11.23% respectively, despite significant profit increases [2][4]. - The largest reduction was observed at 瑞信证券 (Credit Suisse), which saw an 18.25% decrease in staff [2]. Business Focus and Adjustments - Different foreign securities firms have varying focuses; for instance, 高盛 and 摩根大通 (J.P. Morgan) prioritize investment banking, while 野村东方国际证券 (Nomura) and 东亚前海证券 (East Asia Qianhai) focus more on brokerage services [4][5]. - The brokerage divisions of 野村 and 东亚前海 experienced significant staff reductions of 41% and 24% respectively [5]. - 瑞银 has a strong emphasis on research, with 22.9% of its staff dedicated to this area, indicating a strategic focus on research capabilities [4]. Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The reduction in staff is attributed to industry cycles and short-term policy impacts, rather than a long-term strategic withdrawal from the Chinese market [8]. - Following the introduction of the 9.24 policy package, there has been a notable increase in market activity, prompting foreign institutions to reassess and increase their investments in China [1][8]. - Firms like 瑞银 and 摩根大通 are actively seeking to expand their operations in China, with 瑞银 aiming for full ownership of its securities arm and 摩根大通 restarting recruitment efforts [8][7].

Group 1 - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves by 70,000 ounces, marking six consecutive months of gold accumulation, with total reserves reaching 73.77 million ounces, an increase of nearly 1 million ounces over the past six months [3][5] - In the first quarter, global central banks purchased 244 tons of gold, aligning with the normal purchasing levels seen over the past three years, with annual purchases averaging around 1,000 tons [3][4] Group 2 - UBS predicts that central banks will buy approximately 1,000 tons of gold by 2025, driven by rising structural demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4][11] - The World Gold Council's survey indicates that 29% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest level since 2018 [4] Group 3 - The historical context of gold as a monetary standard under the gold standard system highlights its enduring value as a reserve asset, despite the shift to fiat currencies [5][8] - The current global market's uncertainties, including geopolitical conflicts and economic challenges, have made gold a competitive and reliable asset for central banks [8][9] Group 4 - Central banks are accumulating gold as a hedge against risks associated with the dollar system, reflecting a shift in the global monetary landscape towards diversification and reduced reliance on a single currency [11]

Group 1: UBS Tax Probe Settlement - UBS Group AG has agreed to pay $511 million to resolve a tax probe by the U.S. Department of Justice against Credit Suisse for preparing false income tax returns and tax evasion [1] - The DOJ's two-year investigation found that Credit Suisse aided tax evasion through 475 offshore accounts, concealing over $4 billion from the IRS, with most misconduct occurring between 2014 and June 2023 [2] - Credit Suisse was found guilty and liable to pay $371.9 million as part of the settlement, along with an additional $138.7 million related to undeclared U.S.-linked accounts in its Singapore unit [3] Group 2: UBS Integration and Cost Management - UBS is facing challenges and legal claims post-acquisition of Credit Suisse, increasing its costs, but is on track to complete the integration by the end of 2026 [5] - In the first quarter of 2025, UBS consolidated its branch network in Switzerland, merging 95 branches since the July 2024 merger, with business migrations planned to complete by the first quarter of 2026 [6] - UBS realized an additional $0.9 billion in gross cost savings in the first quarter of 2025, with cumulative savings amounting to $8.4 billion, representing around 65% of its goal to achieve $13 billion in annualized exit rate gross cost savings by the end of 2026 [7] Group 3: UBS Stock Performance - Over the past three months, UBS Group shares have lost 7.2%, while the industry has seen an 8.8% rise [13]

瑞银：美联储可能在9月开始降息 金十数据5月8日讯，瑞银全球财富管理首席投资长马克•海费勒在一份报告中说，该行确认了美联储将 从9月份开始降息100个基点的预期，然而可能出现许多不同结果，取决于美国贸易政策如何演变。 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS Group AG has formed a strategic partnership with General Atlantic to enhance private credit opportunities, focusing on direct lending solutions for clients and borrowers [1][2]. Partnership Details - The collaboration aims to broaden access to direct lending and credit products by leveraging UBS's advisory and investment banking capabilities alongside General Atlantic's global network [2]. - The partnership will primarily focus on senior secured direct lending financing for companies in North America and Western Europe, with General Atlantic leading a private credit team [3]. Rationale Behind the Partnership - This strategic collaboration is intended to strengthen UBS's Investment Bank's private market capabilities, particularly in providing private credit solutions to large- and mid-cap companies in the Americas [4]. - The partnership aligns with UBS's growth targets for its Global Banking capital markets platform, enhancing its reach and capabilities in the private credit sector [4]. Leadership Statements - Sergio P. Ermotti, CEO of UBS, expressed enthusiasm for the partnership, highlighting the shared commitment to client-centric solutions and the combined strengths of both firms in private credit investing and asset management [5]. Market Context - UBS shares have experienced a decline of 4.2% over the past six months, contrasting with a 17% rise in the industry [7]. - UBS currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating a neutral outlook in the market [8]. Industry Comparisons - Other financial institutions are also expanding their presence in the private credit market, with JPMorgan announcing a $50 billion allocation for direct lending and Citigroup partnering with Apollo Global Management for a $25 billion private credit program [9][12].

Core Viewpoint - The investment banks are increasingly bearish on the US dollar for the second half of the year, anticipating weak US economic data, potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, asset sell-offs, and concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Wells Fargo macro strategist Erik Nelson predicts more weak US economic data and a likelihood of the Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates as the market expects [1] - UBS Wealth Management senior US economist Brian Rose emphasizes that the outlook heavily depends on the independence of the Federal Reserve, suggesting that concerns over its independence could severely undermine the dollar's safe-haven status [1] Group 2: Safe-Haven Currencies - In the current environment, currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc are benefiting as alternative safe-haven options [1]

Core Viewpoint - Credit Suisse Services AG will pay over $510 million in penalties for aiding U.S. taxpayers in evading taxes through offshore accounts, as part of a guilty plea and non-prosecution agreement with the Department of Justice (DOJ) [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Penalties and Agreements - The total amount of over $510 million includes penalties, restitution, forfeiture, and fines related to the bank's actions [2]. - The guilty plea and non-prosecution agreement involve conspiring to hide over $4 billion in assets held by wealthy clients through offshore accounts [2][3]. - Credit Suisse's non-prosecution agreement specifically addresses undeclared accounts worth over $2 billion held at Credit Suisse AG Singapore from 2014 to June 2023 [6]. Group 2: Conduct and Violations - Credit Suisse Services AG conspired with employees and U.S. customers to willfully aid in concealing ownership and control of assets from January 2010 to July 2021 [3]. - The bank provided offshore private banking services that facilitated the hiding of assets from the IRS, violating a previous 2014 plea agreement [5]. - Prior to the settlement, the U.S. Senate Finance Committee found that Credit Suisse violated its 2014 agreement by continuing to assist in tax evasion, concealing over $700 million from the government [9]. Group 3: UBS Involvement - UBS, which acquired Credit Suisse in March 2023, stated it was not involved in the underlying conduct and has a zero-tolerance policy for tax evasion [10]. - UBS has committed to cooperating with ongoing investigations and providing further information about U.S. accounts as part of the agreement [8]. - The acquisition of Credit Suisse was driven by concerns of its potential collapse, and UBS aims to resolve legacy issues promptly [12][10].

瑞银：预计美元将再次走软 黄金仍受到支撑 智通财经5月6日电，瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室(CIO)发表机构观点称，美元近期出现超卖，并预计 短期内会有一段时间的盘整。从中期来看，美元疲软的趋势可能再现，同时金价应会受到"避险"需求和 结构性买盘的良好支撑。 ...

Core Points - Credit Suisse Services AG will pay approximately $511 million to settle a criminal case related to conspiring with American taxpayers to conceal over $4 billion in at least 475 offshore accounts [1][2] - The conspiracy enabled ultra-high-net-worth and high-net-worth individual clients to evade U.S. tax obligations from 2010 to 2021, violating a previous plea agreement made in May 2014 [2] - The company pleaded guilty to conspiracy charges in U.S. District Court and entered into a non-prosecution agreement regarding U.S. accounts booked at Credit Suisse AG Singapore [3] - Credit Suisse AG Singapore held undeclared accounts for U.S. persons, with total assets exceeding $2 billion, from 2014 to June 2023 [4]