Core Insights - UBS reported a total market value of $540 billion in its Q1 2025 holdings, remaining stable compared to the previous quarter [1][2] - The firm added 1,239 new stocks to its portfolio, increased holdings in 4,632 stocks, reduced holdings in 4,025 stocks, and completely sold out of 944 stocks [1][2] - The top ten holdings accounted for 14.36% of the total market value [1][2] Holdings Summary - The top five holdings include Apple (AAPL) with approximately 60.7 million shares valued at $13.49 billion (2.48% of the portfolio), Microsoft (MSFT) with about 32.9 million shares valued at $12.35 billion (2.27%), Nvidia (NVDA) with around 101.4 million shares valued at $10.99 billion (2.02%), Amazon (AMZN) with approximately 37.6 million shares valued at $7.15 billion (1.31%), and SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with about 12.8 million shares valued at $7.14 billion (1.31%) [3][4] - Notably, SPY saw a significant increase in holdings by 27.95% compared to the previous quarter [3][4] Trading Activity - The turnover rate for the portfolio was 19.64%, with an alternative turnover rate of 8.64% [2] - The average holding period for the top 20 stocks was approximately 20.95 quarters, while the top 10 stocks had an average holding period of 21 quarters [2] Buying and Selling Trends - The top five purchases included SPDR S&P 500 ETF put options, iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF put options, SPDR S&P 500 ETF, SPDR Gold Shares ETF, and Berkshire Hathaway [4][6] - The top five sales included Microsoft, Apple, Google, Tesla, and iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF call options [5][6]

瑞银集团称，近期金融市场震荡增强了黄金的吸引力，全球资金希望将钱从美国转移出去或对冲其在美 国的风险敞口。"美国风险资产和美元波动将导致更多国际投资者考虑对冲更多美元敞口，并在全球范 围内实现资产配置多元化，"瑞银财富管理部门的首席投资官Mark Haefele本周表示。"黄金仍然是重要 的多元化投资工具。"Haefele表示，投资者需要进行多元化投资及对冲操作，"以增强资产价值的确定 性，尤其是在有非美元债务到期的情况下。这些趋势并不需要美国例外论发生巨变才能显现出来。" ...

Group 1 - The outlook for China's economy is becoming less pessimistic, with ING raising its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 4.5% to 4.7% [1][4] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for China's GDP growth from 4.0% to 4.6% [1][4] - JPMorgan has also increased its forecast for China's 2025 economic growth from 4.1% to 4.8% [1][2] Group 2 - The reduction of tariffs between China and the US is expected to boost economic optimism, leading to a recovery in stock markets [1][5] - JPMorgan estimates that the average effective tariff rate in the US will decrease from 24% to 14%, resulting in a $300 billion "tax cut effect" [1] - Barclays has updated its outlook for the US economy, stating that a mild recession in the second half of 2025 is no longer the base case scenario [2][1] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 5900 to 6100, citing the positive impact of tariff reductions on corporate earnings [5] - Yardeni Research has also increased its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 6000 to 6500 [5] - The S&P 500 index closed at 5892 points on May 14, reflecting a 4% increase compared to before the announcement of tariff reductions [5]

高盛月内第二次做出上调动作。 "中美关税大幅降低，或助力A股市场重拾上升趋势。"瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟磊认为。 他分析，考虑到低基数效应以及更多支持政策的推出，预计今年A股盈利将呈逐季回升态势。市场估值 方面，更为明确的财政政策支持、进一步的对外开放政策、大力推动民营经济发展等举措，或有助于降 低股权风险溢价。 第一财经获悉，在最新发布的研报中，高盛上调MSCI中国指数和沪深300的目标点位至84点和4600点， 对应潜在上涨空间为11%和17%。同时，该公司维持对中国股票的超配评级。 这是高盛月内第二次做出上调中国股票评级。该公司5月8称，维持对中国股市的增持评级，并上调 MSCI中国指数、沪深300指数的12个月目标点位，从前期的75点和4300点，分别上调至78点和4400点， 对应潜在上升空间为7%和15%。 当时，央行等三部门联合推出多项金融政策。高盛认为，一揽子宽松政策具有针对性，愈发以需求侧为 导向，将目标明确指向稳定房地产市场、支持中小企业发展、促进股东回报以及培育稳定、健康的股市 等。 此次再度上调重要指数目标点位，高盛称，至5月14日，中国股市已完全收复美国"自由日"以来的失 地，M ...

瑞银全球财富管理的美国股票主管David Lefkowitz将对美股的评级从"有吸引力"下调至"中性"。 Lefkowitz在5月13日的报告中写道，投资者似乎"已经计入贸易摩擦的大幅缓和"，认为美股的风险回报 更趋平衡，标普500指数目前高于4月2日的水平。由于美股近期的上行催化剂似乎"不那么普遍"，并且 尽管不确定性有所降低，经济仍需适应更高的关税水平，未来几个月经济数据"似乎将趋于疲软"。虽然 Lefkowitz将美股评级下调至中性，但他仍然认为牛市"完好无损，明年股市可能会进一步上涨"。"但经 济将必须适应更高的关税，这可能会导致一段时期的经济数据疲软，这可能会对股市造成温和阻力"。 (智通财经) ...

Millennium Management聘请瑞银集团前亚太区股票衍生品主管，是这家730亿美元投资巨头招募投资银 行高管来拓展业务的又一举动。据知情人士称，Ernest Ng将加入Millennium担任高级投资组合经理。Ng 将与前瑞信集团同事Ken Pang共事，后者目前领导Millennium的亚太股票业务主管。（彭博） ...

Group 1 - UBS strategists predict that A-shares are likely to regain upward momentum, recommending tactical increases in growth stocks to enhance portfolio resilience [1] - The US and China have jointly announced the cancellation of 91% of cumulative tariffs, with both countries suspending 24% of reciprocal tariffs, establishing a mechanism for ongoing trade negotiations [1] - UBS estimates that the weighted average tariff rate imposed by the US on Chinese goods is approximately 43.5%, with non-financial A-share companies expected to have an overseas revenue share of 14.3% in 2024 [1] Group 2 - UBS forecasts a 6% year-on-year growth in earnings per share (EPS) for the CSI 300 index by 2025, assuming tariffs remain unchanged [3] - In the first quarter of 2025, A-share earnings are expected to grow by 3.5% year-on-year, with non-financial A-share earnings increasing by 4.2%, aligning with the positive industrial profit data released by the National Bureau of Statistics [3] Group 3 - UBS anticipates a sequential recovery in A-share earnings this year due to a low base and potential policy support, with a significant inflow of long-term capital likely to reduce equity risk premiums [6] - The valuation of A-shares remains significantly lower than that of emerging markets, suggesting continued net inflows from global capital [6] Group 4 - UBS advises tactical increases in growth stocks, small-cap stocks, and high beta sectors, particularly in technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), which may benefit from domestic policy support [7] - The performance of small-cap stocks is expected to outperform large-cap stocks due to their higher overseas revenue share in a recovering market [7] Group 5 - The upcoming 90-day pause in trade negotiations between the US and China introduces significant uncertainty, with the potential for the state to increase stock holdings to stabilize the market [8] - The Central Huijin Investment has announced its role as a stabilizing fund in the capital market, indicating a willingness to support stock prices if necessary [8] Group 6 - Since April 7, trading volumes of various A-share exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have surged significantly, indicating increased market activity [9] - The structure of ETF holdings by the state is more balanced, which is expected to enhance liquidity for small and mid-cap stocks [10] - UBS estimates that Central Huijin's net investments in A-share ETFs for the first three quarters of 2024 will total 771.8 billion yuan, with state-owned entities holding at least 1.24 trillion yuan in stocks, accounting for 7.7% of the free float market cap [10]

Core Insights - UBS's high-net-worth clients are increasingly withdrawing from dollar assets and shifting towards gold, cryptocurrencies, and Chinese assets [1] - The tension in US-China trade relations is prompting investors to diversify their previously "US-centric" asset allocations [1] - There is a notable increase in investments in alternative assets, commodities, and cryptocurrencies as volatility is expected to persist [1]

国际投行如何看待中美关税变化？这对中国、美国的经济和货币、财政政策又有什么影响？ 中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，此次会谈的举行是中美经贸关系的一个积极动向，为后续沟通与谈 判奠定了基础。全球股市大涨，美股已经回到了技术性牛市区间，纳斯达克指数从4月低点到现在的涨 幅已达27%，而恒生科技股指数也在12日大涨5%。 国际投行如何看待中美关税变化？这对中国、美国的经济和货币、财政政策又有什么影响？ 对此，第一财经整理了高盛、摩根士丹利、瑞银、澳新等国际投行的最新观点，以及部分投行交易台交 易员关注到的一线交易变化。 摩根士丹利：比市场预期更快、幅度更深 摩根士丹利方面发给第一财经的邮件显示，该机构认为，中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展的速度比市 场预期更快，程度也更深。 该机构认为，从对抗转向有序谈判的初步迹象显现，即双方同意建立一个常设磋商机制，该机制由中国 国务院副总理何立峰、美国财政部长贝森特以及美国贸易代表格里尔牵头。 就关税变化对宏观经济的影响而言，摩根士丹利认为中国GDP或有超出此前该机构预测的可能性。关税 暂停让双方从近乎双边贸易暂停的局面中得到了缓解。虽然关税水平仍较高，但暂停期可能会促使货物 提 ...

Group 1 - After the US-China tariff agreement, multiple financial institutions have raised their economic forecasts for China, with a significant reduction in tariffs impacting trade dynamics [1][2] - Morgan Stanley has adjusted its GDP forecast for China, predicting an acceleration in exports due to lower tariffs, with expectations for Q2 GDP to exceed previous estimates [1] - JPMorgan has also revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025, increasing the expected growth rate for Q2 to Q4 of 2025 to 3% [2][3] Group 2 - Optimism regarding growth prospects is improving the outlook for the Chinese stock market, with Nomura upgrading Chinese stocks to "tactical overweight" [4] - Citigroup has raised its year-end target for the Hang Seng Index by 2% to 25,000 points, anticipating it will reach 26,000 by mid-2026 [4] - Some experts caution against excessive optimism, noting that the Chinese stock market's performance still heavily relies on domestic fundamentals [4]