Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's report indicates that Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings Limited (00551) experienced a 6.5% year-on-year growth in OEM revenue, driven by a 2% increase in average selling price and a 4.7% rise in shipment volume [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's capacity utilization rate improved to 95% in the second quarter, but gross margin declined by 0.2 percentage points to 17.8% due to uneven production scheduling and rising labor costs [1] - Daiwa maintains a "Buy" rating for Yue Yuen, slightly lowering the target price from HKD 17 to HKD 16.5, while expressing caution regarding order volume for the second half of the year [1] - Earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 3% to 7%, based on adjustments to shipment volume and gross margin expectations [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Management has a conservative outlook for third-quarter orders, citing cautious ordering behavior from downstream customers due to unclear tariffs and weak demand [1] - A high single-digit year-on-year decline in shipment volume is anticipated for the third quarter, along with a projected decrease in gross margin [1] - Despite short-term uncertainties, the company emphasizes its commitment to expanding production in multiple regions and maintaining stable dividend distributions due to a robust balance sheet [1]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's report indicates that Yuanyuan Group (00551) experienced a 6.5% year-on-year growth in OEM revenue, driven by a 2% increase in average selling price and a 4.7% rise in shipment volume [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - OEM revenue increased by 6.5% year-on-year, supported by a 2% rise in average selling price and a 4.7% increase in shipment volume [1] - Gross margin decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 17.8% due to uneven production scheduling across factories and rising labor costs, despite capacity utilization reaching 95% in the second quarter [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The management of Yuanyuan Group maintains a cautious outlook for third-quarter orders, primarily due to unclear tariffs and weak demand from downstream customers [1] - Shipment volume is expected to decline by a high single-digit percentage year-on-year in the third quarter, with gross margin also anticipated to decrease year-on-year [1] Group 3: Investment Rating - Daiwa reaffirms a "Buy" rating for Yuanyuan Group, slightly lowering the target price from HKD 17 to HKD 16.5 [1] - Earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 3% to 7%, based on adjustments to shipment volume and gross margin predictions [1] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Despite short-term uncertainties, the group emphasizes its commitment to expanding production in multiple regions and maintaining stable dividend distributions due to a robust balance sheet [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings Limited (00551) maintains a cautious outlook for the second half of the year due to macroeconomic uncertainties, but believes that its commitment to shareholder returns will provide downside support for the stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Outlook - The target price for Yue Yuen has been raised from HKD 12.5 to HKD 13.5, while maintaining a "Market Perform" rating [1] - Management expects a high single-digit year-on-year decline in manufacturing orders for Q3 due to a high base effect, with gross margins also expected to decline year-on-year for the same reason [1] - For Q4, an increase in shipment volume is anticipated, which is expected to be the highest level for the year [1] Group 2: Customer and Market Dynamics - Shoe manufacturing clients are cautious in their order arrangements, waiting for clearer visibility on the impact of tariffs on end markets [1] - Four clients, accounting for approximately 50% of manufacturing sales, have requested to share the burden of tariffs [1] Group 3: Sales Performance - The average selling price of the manufacturing business is expected to increase year-on-year due to product mix improvements, with an overall expected low single-digit year-on-year growth in average selling price for the year [1] - Retail business continues to face discount pressure due to weak consumer demand in China, with sales performance in July and August being weak [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings Limited (00551) maintains a cautious outlook for the second half of the year due to macroeconomic uncertainties, but believes that its commitment to shareholder returns will provide downside support for the stock price. The target price has been raised from HKD 12.5 to HKD 13.5, while maintaining a "Market Perform" rating [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - The management of Yue Yuen stated during an analyst briefing that footwear manufacturing clients are cautious in their order arrangements, waiting for clearer visibility on the impact of tariffs on the end market. Four clients, accounting for approximately 50% of manufacturing sales, have requested to share the tariff burden [1]. - The company expects a year-on-year decline in manufacturing orders in the third quarter due to a high base effect, with gross margins also anticipated to decline year-on-year. However, a quarter-on-quarter increase in shipment volume is expected in the fourth quarter, which will be the highest level for the year [1]. Group 2: Sales and Pricing - For the second half of the year, the report cites management's comments that due to an improved product mix, the average selling price of the manufacturing business is still expected to increase year-on-year, with an overall average selling price projected to grow in the low single digits year-on-year [1]. - The retail business continues to face discount pressure due to weak consumer demand in China, with sales performance in July and August being sluggish [1].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings maintains a cautious outlook for the second half of the year due to macroeconomic uncertainties, but believes its commitment to shareholder returns will provide downside support for the stock price. The target price has been raised from HKD 12.5 to HKD 13.5, while maintaining a "Market Perform" rating [1]. Group 1 - The management of Yue Yuen stated during an analyst briefing that footwear manufacturing clients are cautious in their order arrangements, awaiting clearer visibility on the impact of tariffs on the end market [1]. - Four clients, accounting for approximately 50% of the manufacturing business's sales, have requested to share the burden of tariff costs [1]. - The company expects a year-on-year decline in manufacturing orders in the third quarter due to a high base, and a year-on-year decrease in gross margin is also anticipated for the same reason [1]. Group 2 - However, it is expected that the shipment volume in the fourth quarter will increase quarter-on-quarter, reaching the highest level for the year [1].

Summary of Yue Yuen (0551.HK) and Pou Sheng (3813.HK) Earnings Call Company Overview - **Companies Involved**: Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings Limited (0551.HK) and Pou Sheng International Holdings Limited (3813.HK) [1][2] Key Industry Insights - **OEM Business Outlook**: The OEM business outlook for 2H25 remains cautious due to shorter order visibility from brands and conservative procurement practices. Management expects Q3 volume to decline by high single digits (HSD%) compared to a high base last year, with a wider year-over-year (yoy) decline in gross profit margin (GPM) than in 1H25 [1][12] - **Retail Demand**: Pou Sheng is experiencing uncertainty in sales recovery for 2H25, with inventory levels under control due to self-help efforts and brand support. The company anticipates a positive growth in average selling price (ASP) for 2H25, contributing to a low single-digit (LSD%) growth in full-year ASP yoy [1][12] Financial Performance - **Pou Sheng Sales Decline**: Pou Sheng reported a -12% yoy decline in sales for 2Q25, followed by a -9% yoy decline in July. Management expects continued pressure in August due to seasonal factors [13] - **Inventory Management**: Inventory levels rose by 4.6% yoy in 1H25, with aging inventory below 9%. The company plans to implement proactive measures to manage inventory in response to demand softness [14] Margin and Cost Insights - **Margin Pressure**: 2Q25 margins faced headwinds from subcontracting costs, uneven production levels, and rising labor costs. The company expects GPM in 3Q25 to decline more than in 1H25, but overall GPM for 2H25 is projected to be higher than in 1H25 [12][14] - **Tariff Implications**: Four brand customers, accounting for approximately 50% of sales, have requested the company to share low single-digit percentage points (LSDpp) of the elevated US tariff. There is no significant increase in tariff-sharing requirements following the reciprocal tariff for ASEAN countries rising to approximately 20% from 10% [9][12] Capital Expenditure and Strategic Focus - **Capex Plans**: The company expects to invest over US$300 million in capex for 2025, focusing on diversifying manufacturing capacity in key countries like Indonesia and India, which is set to start production in 1Q27 [10] Valuation and Price Targets - **Price Target for Yue Yuen**: The target price remains unchanged at HK$14.00, based on an 8x/9x 2025E P/E valuation for Pou Sheng and Yue Yuen's OEM business, respectively [3][20] - **Price Target for Pou Sheng**: The target price is adjusted to HK$0.60 from HK$0.70, reflecting a conservative outlook on sales and margins [3][19] Risks and Considerations - **Key Risks for Yue Yuen**: Potential risks include tariff hikes impacting demand, weaker-than-expected orders from key accounts, and lower-than-expected margin recovery [20] - **Key Risks for Pou Sheng**: Risks include slower recovery of Nike/adidas growth in China and higher discounts leading to operating deleverage [19] Conclusion - The overall sentiment towards Yue Yuen's OEM business appears to be improving, reflected in a 6% increase in share price, driven by settled tariff rates, lower expectations, better ASP, and disciplined operating expense control [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings, reflecting the challenges faced in the retail segment while acknowledging steady growth in manufacturing [2][10]. Core Insights - Yue Yuen's manufacturing business showed resilience with a revenue increase of 6.2% year-on-year, reaching USD 2.798 billion, while retail revenue fell by 8.6% to USD 1.262 billion [2][10]. - The company is focusing on prudent inventory and discount management to balance profitability and channel health, with inventory turnover days at 146 days [4][12]. - The management has emphasized a refined retail strategy and diversification of channels, particularly enhancing online sales which grew by 16% year-on-year [3][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H2025, total revenue was USD 4.06 billion, a 1.1% increase year-on-year, with manufacturing revenue at USD 2.798 billion and retail revenue at USD 1.262 billion [2][10]. - The average selling price for footwear increased by 3.2% to USD 20.61 per pair, benefiting from a premium order mix [2][10]. Retail Strategy - Pou Sheng International's omni-channel revenue grew significantly, driven by online sales, which doubled due to live-streaming initiatives [3][11]. - The company plans to maintain its offline store count between 3,300 and 3,500 while focusing on enhancing single-store efficiency [3][11]. Inventory and Cost Management - The management is implementing measures such as production cuts and clearance sales to control inventory levels, with nearly 9% of inventory being aged [4][12]. - The gross profit margin for manufacturing decreased to 17.7%, impacted by rising labor costs and uneven capacity utilization [2][10]. Capacity Expansion and Tariff Strategy - The company is optimizing its capacity layout and expanding production in Indonesia and India to mitigate tariff impacts, with a projected capital expenditure of around USD 300 million for factory construction [5][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The manufacturing business resilience drives steady revenue growth for the group, while awaiting improvements in the retail segment [5] - The company reported a revenue of USD 4.06 billion for FY25H1, with a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, driven by a 6.2% increase in manufacturing revenue, while retail revenue declined by 8.3% in RMB terms [7] - The company is positioned as a leading global manufacturer of sports footwear and a top distributor of sports apparel in China, with a stable growth outlook [7] Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: Expected revenues for FY25, FY26, and FY27 are USD 8.38 billion, USD 8.74 billion, and USD 9.20 billion respectively, with growth rates of 2.4%, 4.3%, and 5.2% [6][8] - Net Profit Forecast: Expected net profits for FY25, FY26, and FY27 are USD 394.7 million, USD 433.9 million, and USD 473.4 million respectively, with growth rates of 0.6%, 9.9%, and 9.1% [6][8] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): Expected EPS for FY25, FY26, and FY27 are USD 0.25, USD 0.27, and USD 0.30 respectively [6][8] - Return on Equity (ROE): Expected ROE for FY25, FY26, and FY27 are 8.17%, 8.24%, and 8.25% respectively [6][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that both Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings Limited (00551) and Pou Chen Corporation (03813) reported second-quarter results that were generally in line with the expectations of the firm, but more than 10% lower than market consensus, attributed to pressure on the profitability of their OEM businesses [1] - The firm has lowered the target prices for Yue Yuen and Pou Chen to HKD 7.4 and HKD 0.84 respectively, assigning "Underperform" and "Buy" ratings, expressing concerns about potentially weak order conditions over the next six months [1] - Management attributed the lower-than-expected OEM profit margins to uneven order allocation and rising labor costs, while noting an improvement in capacity utilization during the period [1] Group 2 - The company has a cautious outlook for order prospects in the second half of the year, indicating that the third quarter is traditionally a slow season, with expected year-on-year shipment volume declines reaching high single-digit percentages [1] - The decline in gross margin is expected to be more pronounced compared to the first half of the year, with uncertainties surrounding fourth-quarter orders primarily due to delays in order placements from brand clients [1] - Earnings per share estimates for Yue Yuen for 2026 have been reduced by 5% to RMB 0.18, while earnings per share estimates for Pou Chen for the next two years have been cut by 30% and 18% to RMB 0.07 and RMB 0.09 respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reported that Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings Limited (00551) experienced a 1% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 13% increase in net profit for the second quarter, with revenue meeting expectations and net profit exceeding expectations by 19% due to a lower tax rate and gains from financial instruments [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the second quarter grew by 1% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [1] - Net profit increased by 13% year-on-year, surpassing expectations by 19% due to a lower tax rate and fair value gains from financial instruments [1] Product Pricing - Average selling prices rose by 2.5% in the first quarter and 3.9% in the second quarter year-on-year [1] - UBS forecasts a low single-digit percentage increase in average selling prices for the entire year, accounting for the impact of tariff policies [1] Target Price and Rating - UBS raised the target price for Yue Yuen from HKD 14 to HKD 16, reflecting higher order growth expectations for the next year [1] - The rating for Yue Yuen is maintained at "Buy" [1]