星展发表研报指，对铜、金价格的乐观情绪将支撑紫金矿业的盈利增长，预期至2027年盈利复合年增长 率达44%。受惠于央行增加黄金储备及交易所买卖基金相关的投机需求，对黄金的乐观情绪得到强化。 另一方面，由于矿山干扰、品位下降以及能源转型和人工智能热潮带来的需求不减，预计铜市场供应短 缺加剧。该行预期2026年平均金价及伦敦金属交易所铜价将分别上涨39.3%及12.1%，至每盎司4700美 元及每吨11000美元。该行维持其紫金矿业"买入"评级，并上调H股目标价至55港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance of the Penghua Nonferrous ETF (159880), which opened with a gain of 3.44% on February 24, 2023, indicating a positive trend in the nonferrous metals sector [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Penghua Nonferrous ETF (159880) opened at 2.314 yuan, reflecting a 3.44% increase [1] - The fund's performance benchmark is the National Index of Nonferrous Metals Industry, managed by Penghua Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1] - Since its inception on March 8, 2021, the fund has achieved a return of 123.33%, with a monthly return of 2.73% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings - Key stocks in the Penghua Nonferrous ETF include: - Zijin Mining, which rose by 4.53% [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum, which increased by 4.41% [1] - Northern Rare Earth, up by 2.30% [1] - Huayou Cobalt, gaining 1.79% [1] - China Aluminum, which rose by 2.52% [1] - Ganfeng Lithium, increasing by 4.36% [1] - Yun Aluminum, up by 1.92% [1] - Shandong Gold, which rose by 4.07% [1] - Zhongjin Gold, gaining 4.98% [1] - Tianqi Lithium, which increased by 2.65% [1]

星展发布研报称，活跃的并购及营运能力推动紫金矿业（601899）(02899)成长。该行维持其紫金矿 业"买入"评级，并上调H股目标价至55港元。 市场对铜、金价格的乐观情绪将支撑其盈利增长，该行预期至2027年盈利复合年增长率达44%。受惠于 央行增加黄金储备及交易所买卖基金相关的投机需求，对黄金的乐观情绪得到强化。另一方面，由于矿 山干扰、品位下降以及能源转型和人工智能热潮带来的需求不减，预计铜市场供应短缺加剧。因此，该 行预期2026年平均金价及伦敦金属交易所铜价将分别上涨39.3%及12.1%，至每盎司4,700美元及每吨 11,000美元。 公司于2024年分别位列全球铜储量及矿产铜产量第五及第四位，以及全球黄金储量及矿产黄金产量第六 位。其强劲的市场地位是透过积极的并购，以及凭其在行业的专业知识和经验营运矿山的强大营运能力 而实现。业绩方面，公司2024年铜C1成本同比下降14%至每磅0.93美元，位列全球前20%水平，并在黄 金矿商中维持具可持续成本的竞争力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining has set an ambitious target for lithium carbonate equivalent production, aiming for 270,000 to 320,000 tons by 2028, a nearly 11-fold increase from the less than 30,000 tons expected in 2025, indicating a significant shift towards the new energy sector [2][11]. Group 1: Company Strategy and Performance - The company is diversifying its operations beyond gold and copper, with a focus on lithium production as part of its strategy to become a top global mining group [3][12]. - In 2025, Zijin Mining achieved a net profit of approximately 51 to 52 billion yuan, a nearly 60% year-on-year increase, largely driven by its gold business, which benefited from a surge in international gold prices [3][12]. - The company’s gold production reached 90 tons in 2025, a 23.3% increase from the previous year, with a gross profit margin of 72.8% [3][12]. Group 2: Expansion and Acquisitions - Zijin Mining has accelerated its international expansion, completing eight major gold mine acquisitions since 2020, including recent purchases in Ghana and Kazakhstan, and plans to list its overseas gold assets [4][13]. - The acquisition of African United Gold Company for 28 billion yuan is expected to add approximately 12 tons of gold production in 2025, raising the company's 2026 gold production target to 105 tons, with aspirations to reach 130 to 140 tons by 2028 [4][13]. Group 3: Lithium Production and Cost Management - The company has established a low-cost lithium production base through its "Two Lakes and Two Mines" resource system, including projects in Argentina, Tibet, Hunan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo [5][14]. - The first phase of the 3Q salt lake project has commenced production with a cash operating cost of only 2,914 USD/ton, among the lowest globally [5][14]. - Zijin Mining's comprehensive cost for lithium carbonate remains between 40,000 to 70,000 yuan/ton, providing a buffer against price fluctuations [6][15]. Group 4: Risks and Challenges - As of September 2025, Zijin Mining's long-term debt and bonds exceeded 112.3 billion yuan, with significant capital expenditure pressures from ongoing projects [6][15]. - The company faces geopolitical risks in its overseas projects, particularly in Africa and South America, which could impact resource control [6][15]. - Despite favorable market forecasts for gold, copper, and lithium, the company must navigate potential macroeconomic disruptions that could affect demand and pricing [6][15]. Group 5: Future Outlook - By early 2026, Zijin Mining is positioned as a diversified global resource platform, spanning precious metals, industrial metals, and new energy materials [7][15]. - If the company can effectively manage its production capacity and debt risks over the next three years, it may achieve its long-term vision of becoming a leading international mining group by 2035 [7][15].

市场对铜、金价格的乐观情绪将支撑其盈利增长，该行预期至2027年盈利复合年增长率达44%。受惠于 央行增加黄金储备及交易所买卖基金相关的投机需求，对黄金的乐观情绪得到强化。另一方面，由于矿 山干扰、品位下降以及能源转型和人工智能热潮带来的需求不减，预计铜市场供应短缺加剧。因此，该 行预期2026年平均金价及伦敦金属交易所铜价将分别上涨39.3%及12.1%，至每盎司4,700美元及每吨 11,000美元。 智通财经APP获悉，星展发布研报称，活跃的并购及营运能力推动紫金矿业(02899)成长。该行维持其紫 金矿业"买入"评级，并上调H股目标价至55港元。 公司于2024年分别位列全球铜储量及矿产铜产量第五及第四位，以及全球黄金储量及矿产黄金产量第六 位。其强劲的市场地位是透过积极的并购，以及凭其在行业的专业知识和经验营运矿山的强大营运能力 而实现。业绩方面，公司2024年铜C1成本同比下降14%至每磅0.93美元，位列全球前20%水平，并在黄 金矿商中维持具可持续成本的竞争力。 ...

Group 1 - The company achieved a record net profit of 51-52 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59%-62%, equivalent to nearly 140 million yuan per day, primarily driven by the historic rise in gold prices [1][3] - The company's gold production reached 90 tons, representing a 23% year-on-year growth, making the gold business the main engine of profit growth [1][3] Group 2 - In addition to gold, the company's "copper + lithium" dual-drive strategy has made significant progress, with copper production reaching 1.09 million tons and lithium carbonate production soaring from 261 tons in 2024 to 25,000 tons [3] - The company plans to produce 120,000 tons of lithium by 2026, showcasing its strategic positioning in the energy transition [3] - The company has built a global resource portfolio through counter-cyclical acquisitions, owning 62 mines across 15 countries, and has improved resource recovery rates to industry-leading levels with its unique management model [3] Group 3 - The company's gross profit margin for gold bars reached 54.39%, indicating significant cost advantages [3] - A recent acquisition of United Gold for 28 billion yuan further strengthens the company's leadership position in the global gold industry [3] - Multiple brokerages believe the foundation for the gold bull market remains solid, with expectations for continued price increases in 2026 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in Zijin Mining's stock prices on February 13, 2026, is attributed to major fund outflows and a systematic adjustment in the metals sector, rather than a deterioration in the company's fundamentals [1][5]. Fund Flow and Market Conditions - Major fund outflows were observed, with a net outflow of 3.435 billion yuan in A-shares, the highest in the market, and a large single order net outflow of 2.475 billion yuan [1]. - The overall decline in the non-ferrous metals sector was 3.36%, indicating a market shift from high-valuation cyclical stocks to technology and defensive sectors [1][2]. - Trading volume decreased significantly before the holiday, with A-share turnover falling below 2 trillion yuan, reflecting increased risk aversion among investors [3]. Industry Policy and Economic Environment - Changes in the US dollar and interest rate expectations have impacted gold prices, with a drop from a January high of 5,600 USD/ounce to 4,965 USD/ounce [2]. - The cyclical nature of Zijin Mining's profitability is closely tied to gold and copper prices, with estimates suggesting that a 10 USD/ounce drop in gold could reduce profits by approximately 800 million yuan [2]. Performance and Operational Insights - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a growth of 59%-62% to between 51 billion and 52 billion yuan [4]. - Production plans for 2026 include 105 tons of gold and 120,000 tons of copper, indicating ongoing capacity expansion [4]. - Zijin Mining maintains a leading position in resource reserves, with approximately 1,487 tons of gold and a globally leading copper resource volume [5].

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed down by 1.72% [1] - The Tech Index fell by 0.9% [1] Company-Specific Movements - Tencent Music (01698.HK) experienced a decline of over 9% [1] - Zijin Mining (02899.HK) dropped by more than 7% [1] - China Hongqiao (01378.HK) and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857.HK) both fell by over 5% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a decline in the performance of the non-ferrous metal mining ETF, with a 2.35% drop in opening price to 2.281 yuan on February 13 [1] - Major holdings within the non-ferrous mining ETF experienced significant declines, including Zijin Mining down 3.75%, Luoyang Molybdenum down 2.85%, and Huayou Cobalt down 3.42% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Non-ferrous Metals Mining Theme Index, managed by China Merchants Fund Management Co., with a return of 133.39% since its establishment on June 21, 2023, and a 7.86% return over the past month [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Zijin Mining experienced a decline of 5.01% in its stock price, reaching 37.76 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 10.352 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.31%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 1,004.028 billion yuan [1] - Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. is located in Fujian Province and was established on September 6, 2000, with its listing date on April 25, 2008. The company's main business involves mineral resource exploration and development [1] - The revenue composition of Zijin Mining includes smelting products at 60.94%, mineral products at 36.48%, other revenues at 16.83%, and trading at 8.02% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, one fund under Shanzheng Asset Management has a significant position in Zijin Mining. The fund, Shanzheng Asset Management Selected Industry Mixed Initiation A (018750), held 21,000 shares in the fourth quarter, accounting for 6.42% of the fund's net value, making it the largest holding [2] - The fund has a current scale of 10.9606 million yuan and has achieved a return of 25.04% this year, ranking 85 out of 8,890 in its category. Over the past year, it has returned 21.91%, ranking 4,785 out of 8,132 [2] - The fund manager, Zhuang Bo, has a tenure of 10 years and 334 days, with a total asset scale of 11.2812 million yuan. The best fund return during his tenure is 33.45%, while the worst return is -3% [2]