Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, but due to a decline in the price of some products, the EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downwards to 1.83, 2.38, and 2.67 CNY respectively [2]. - The target price remains at 26.84 CNY, based on a PE ratio of 11.29 for 2025 [2]. - The company reported Q3 revenue of 25.18 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 30.16%, and a net profit of 3.05 billion CNY, up 4.16% year-on-year [2]. Financial Summary - For Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 8.205 billion CNY, which is a 17.43% increase year-on-year but a 8.81% decrease quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 17.56%, down 6.77 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 10.88%, down 6.54 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 35.953 billion CNY, with a net profit of 3.876 billion CNY [3]. Product Performance - Fertilizer sales in Q3 reached 1.03 million tons, a 35.27% increase year-on-year, while the price per ton was 1,551 CNY, up 6.78% year-on-year [2]. - Organic amines saw sales of 152,600 tons, a 14.05% increase year-on-year, but the price per ton decreased by 18.88% year-on-year to 3,997 CNY [2]. - Acetic acid sales surged by 149% year-on-year to 370,000 tons, with a price drop of 13.91% year-on-year to 2,721 CNY per ton [2]. - The new materials segment sold 665,000 tons, a 4.25% increase year-on-year, with a price decrease of 11.71% year-on-year to 6,012 CNY per ton [2]. Future Outlook - The company’s Jingzhou base has significantly contributed to revenue, with the first phase generating 3.765 billion CNY in revenue and 542 million CNY in net profit [2]. - The second phase of the Jingzhou project is under construction and is expected to be operational by the end of 2024, which includes integrated projects and material optimization [2]. - The company anticipates improvements in profitability as macroeconomic stimulus policies are implemented, and prices for certain products may gradually recover [2].

股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 ——浙商证券 2024 年三季报点评 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.10.31 | --- | |-----------------------------------| | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 刘欣琦 ( 分析师 ) | | 021-38676647 | | liuxinqi@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 S0880515050001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|---------------------------|----------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | 吴浩东 ( 分析师 ) | 王思玥 ( | 研究助理 | ) | | | 010-83939780 | 021-38031024 | | | | | wuhaodo ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][16]. Core Views - The company's performance slightly underperformed expectations, with a significant recovery in production and sales observed in Q3 2024. However, increased costs and falling coal prices have impacted profits, with expectations for a reduction in year-on-year pressure on earnings in Q4 [2][4]. - The company reported a revenue of 26.649 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, down 19.28% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.798 billion yuan, down 61.51% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw revenues of 8.995 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.19% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0% [4][10]. - The report anticipates that the peak pressure on production and sales has passed, with expectations for continued recovery in Q4. The company’s coal production and sales are expected to improve, aided by the easing of restrictions and increased production capacity utilization [4][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 54.297 billion yuan, with projections of 43.137 billion yuan for 2023, 34.449 billion yuan for 2024, and a gradual increase to 38.884 billion yuan by 2026. The year-on-year changes show a decline of 20.6% in 2023 and 20.1% in 2024, followed by a recovery of 7.5% in 2025 and 5.0% in 2026 [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 14.175 billion yuan in 2022, projected to drop to 7.922 billion yuan in 2023, and further down to 3.314 billion yuan in 2024, with a recovery to 5.039 billion yuan by 2026 [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to decrease from 4.74 yuan in 2022 to 2.65 yuan in 2023, with further declines to 1.11 yuan in 2024, before recovering to 1.68 yuan by 2026 [1]. Production and Sales Insights - The company’s coal production for the first three quarters of 2024 was 42.47 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.82%, while sales of commercial coal were 38.10 million tons, down 5.79% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, coal production was 14.80 million tons, a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, but sales increased by 1.8% year-on-year [4][10]. - The average selling price of commercial coal in the first three quarters was 662.15 yuan per ton, down 12% year-on-year, with Q3 prices at 624 yuan per ton, reflecting a 14.3% year-on-year decline [4][10]. Target Price Adjustment - The target price has been adjusted to 18.55 yuan, reflecting an increase from the previous estimate of 17.51 yuan, based on a comparable company’s 2025 PE of 12.31x [4][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for AIA Group Limited (1299) with a target price of HKD 89.80 per share, corresponding to a 2024 P/EV of 1.81 times [4][7]. Core Insights - The company's new business value (NBV) for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 19.6% (actual exchange rate) / 22% (fixed exchange rate), meeting expectations. The growth was driven by improvements in both new business and value rates, with core channels maintaining good performance [2][7]. - The diversified product strategy is expected to enhance value growth momentum, addressing customer needs and regulatory guidance, which is anticipated to mitigate risks associated with interest spreads and improve profitability [7]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2022A to 2026E, the company’s revenue is projected to grow from USD 19,110 million in 2022 to USD 22,470 million in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.3% [6]. - The net profit is expected to increase from USD 282 million in 2022 to USD 6,147 million in 2026, with a significant growth rate of 25.3% in 2024E [6]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 328.94 in 2022 to 12.12 in 2026, indicating improved valuation over time [6]. Business Performance - The core regions of the business showed resilience, with NBV growth in mainland China at 9% and Hong Kong at 24%. The growth in Hong Kong was supported by local customers and mainland visitors, with agent and bancassurance channels performing well [7]. - The annualized new premium for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 14.1% (actual exchange rate) / 16% (fixed exchange rate), driven by both agent and partner distribution channels [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and lowers the target price to 52.73 CNY from the previous 78.26 CNY, reflecting adjustments in profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [3][4][11]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, with proactive adjustments leading to stable revenue and high profitability. The industry is experiencing a trend of squeezed growth, but the company maintains a strong performance outlook [2][3][11]. - Revenue for Q3 2024 was 2.637 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 10.11%, while net profit was 624 million CNY, up 6.24% year-on-year [14]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a "Buy" rating and revises the target price to 52.73 CNY, corresponding to a 17X dynamic PE for 2025 [3][4][11]. Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue and profit performance were in line with expectations, with revenue showing resilience despite a sequential slowdown. The company adopted a focused strategy, with significant growth in specific regions [11][12]. - The company’s gross margin and sales expense ratio decreased by 5.14 percentage points and 3.90 percentage points year-on-year, respectively, while the net profit margin remained high at 23.68% [12]. Market Position and Risk Resilience - The company exhibits strong channel capabilities and high market share, which enhances its risk resilience amid industry challenges. The report anticipates that the company's performance will remain superior to its peers during the adjustment phase [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Midea Group [2][13] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with strong domestic sales and rapid overseas growth. The upcoming quarter is expected to benefit from government subsidies, further enhancing the company's market share and growth rate [3][5][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendation - The report raises profit forecasts and maintains a "Buy" rating, projecting net profits for 2024-2026 at 39.44 billion, 43.38 billion, and 46.45 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 17%, 10%, and 7% [5][13]. 2. Performance Overview - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 320.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.57%, and a net profit of 31.699 billion yuan, up 14.37%. In Q3 2024 alone, revenue was 102.228 billion yuan, growing 8.08% year-on-year, with net profit at 10.895 billion yuan, up 14.86% [16]. 3. Revenue: Resilience in Domestic Sales and Accelerated Export Growth - Despite a challenging retail environment in July and August, the company showed stability, benefiting from government subsidies in September. Domestic sales are expected to grow by 5% year-on-year in Q3, outperforming competitors. Overseas demand remains robust, with OBM business growing over 25% year-on-year [17][18]. 4. Profit: Increased Sales and Positive Financial Contributions - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 27.07%, with a net margin of 10.04%. In Q3 2024, the gross margin was 26.42%, reflecting a year-on-year decline due to rising copper prices and exchange rate fluctuations. The company has increased its sales expenses to maintain market share [19][20]. 5. Cash Position and Strong Cash Flow - As of Q3 2024, the company had cash and cash equivalents totaling 167.9 billion yuan, an increase of 63.2 billion yuan from the previous half-year. The net cash flow from operating activities for the first nine months of 2024 was 60.264 billion yuan, up 34.6% year-on-year [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company's third-quarter performance showed a slight improvement in gross margin and a significant increase in net margin, indicating substantial cost reduction and efficiency enhancement potential [4]. - The geopolitical situation has eased, and potash prices remain low, prompting a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected EPS of 0.76, 0.99, and 1.27 yuan respectively [4]. - The target price has been raised to 23.22 yuan from the previous 18.85 yuan, reflecting a PE ratio of 29.1 times for the company, which is considered favorable given the expected production capacity elasticity [4]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.483 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.13%, and a net profit of 518 million yuan, down 47.89% year-on-year [4]. - In Q3 alone, revenue was 785 million yuan, down 9.71% year-on-year and 26.27% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 248 million yuan, down 10.71% year-on-year but up 31.46% quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 49.26%, up 2.60 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the net margin was 30.67%, up 13.58 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4]. Production and Capacity - The company’s potash production and sales in Q3 were 478,600 tons and 380,400 tons respectively, with a quarter-on-quarter increase in production but a decrease in sales [4]. - The entry of Huineng Group as a shareholder is expected to invigorate the company's mineral resource development, with potential daily production capacity reaching 8,000 to 9,000 tons upon the operation of new shafts [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TCL Smart Home (002668) with an updated target price of RMB 13.8, up from RMB 12.15 previously [6][13] Core Views - TCL Smart Home's Q3 2024 performance slightly exceeded expectations, driven by strong export growth and improved profitability in its Oma subsidiary [4][13] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached RMB 13.945 billion, up 22.95% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 825 million, up 29.56% YoY [4][15] - Oma's revenue growth outpaced TCL Hefei's washing and refrigeration business, with Oma expected to grow 20-25% YoY in Q3 2024, while TCL Hefei grew 10-15% [4][16] Financial Performance - The company's gross margin improved significantly in Q3 2024, reaching 24.04%, up 1.93 percentage points YoY, driven by higher sales of Oma's mid-to-high-end products [4][18] - Oma's net profit margin reached 13.8% in Q3 2024, contributing RMB 252 million to the parent company, while TCL Hefei's net profit was less than RMB 14 million [4][18] - The company's operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 1.35 billion, down 36% YoY, mainly due to increased payments to suppliers [20] Business Segments - Oma's refrigerator exports increased by 11% YoY in Q3 2024, while domestic sales grew by 2%, with mid-to-high-end products driving average selling prices higher [17] - TCL Hefei's refrigerator exports grew by 58% YoY in Q3 2024, while domestic sales declined by 5%, with washing machine exports up 50% and domestic sales up 22% [17] - TCL Hefei's gross margin remains around 10% due to new capacity investments, with expected improvements as capacity utilization increases [4][21] Market and Industry Outlook - The report expects the company's revenue growth to slow in Q4 2024, with more balanced growth between domestic and export sales [17] - The company's profitability is expected to improve further as Oma's mid-to-high-end product sales increase and shipping costs decline [4][21]

股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——2024 年万华化学三季报点评 沈唯(分析师) 0755-23976795 [table_Authors] shenwei024936@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880523080006 本报告导读： 公司三季报业绩低于预期，但考虑到公司竞争优势仍突出且多项目投产在即，维持 "增持"评级。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 维持"增持"评级。由于公司 Q3 业绩低于预期，下调公司 2024-2026 年 EPS 分别为 4.62/6.00/7.94 元（原为 6.27/7.51/8.50 元）。参考可比 公司估值，给予公司 2025 年 15.13 倍 PE，维持目标价为 90.76 元。 公司 Q3 业绩低于预期。公司 2024 年前三季度实现收入 1476 亿元， 同比+11.35%，实现归母净利润 110.93 亿元，同比-12.67%。其中， 公司 2024Q3 单季度实现收入 505.4 亿，同比+12.48%，环比-0.73%； 单季度归母净利润 29.2 亿，同比-29.41%，环比-27.33%。盈利能力 方面，Q3 毛利率 13. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][3] Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, supported by high demand from downstream key customers. The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been raised, with expected EPS of 7.25, 8.64, and 10.69 CNY respectively, up from previous estimates of 6.77, 8.09, and 10.01 CNY. The target price has been increased to 138.26 CNY, reflecting a valuation premium due to strong brand partnerships and a positive sales trend for popular products [3][4] - Revenue continues to grow significantly, driven by innovative product designs and effective marketing strategies from key brand Stanley. The company benefits from strong sales on platforms like Amazon and its independent site, with the Vietnam base expected to enhance supply chain capabilities [3][4] - The gross margin and net margin for Q3 2024 are reported at 39.4% and 26.0%, respectively, with slight declines from the previous quarter. The report anticipates a foreign exchange impact of approximately 10 million CNY, but adjusted net profit is expected to grow by 40% [3][4] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 2,719 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a 53.2% increase from 2023. Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 753 million CNY, a 59.5% increase [11][12] - The company’s financial ratios indicate a strong return on equity (ROE) of 43.2% for 2024, with a projected PE ratio of 16.42 [11][12] - The total market capitalization is reported at 12,360 million CNY, with a current share price of 119.00 CNY [5][4]