Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO Inc. (蔚来汽车) with a target price of HKD 59.88, indicating a potential upside of 64.5% from the current price of HKD 36.40 [4][12]. Core Insights - NIO's fourth-quarter sales guidance is below expectations, with anticipated deliveries of 72,000 to 75,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.9% to 49.9%. Revenue guidance for the fourth quarter is set between RMB 196.8 billion and RMB 203.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.0% to 19.2% [2][3]. - The decline in average selling price (ASP) is more significant than expected, with the ASP dropping to RMB 270,000, below market expectations and previous guidance of RMB 280,000 for the third quarter. This is attributed to increased promotional efforts by NIO [1][2]. - The report highlights that revenue for the third quarter is expected to be RMB 18.7 billion, slightly below expectations, with a gross margin of 10.7%, which is slightly above market expectations. The automotive gross margin improved to 13.1% due to lower battery costs and increased sales volume [1][3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, NIO's revenue is projected to reach RMB 62.847 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.0%. However, net losses are expected to be RMB 16.867 billion, with a core loss per share of RMB 9.92 [7][15]. - The report indicates that NIO's sales and R&D expenses increased by 9.4% and 3.1% respectively, with sales expenses surpassing RMB 40 billion for the first time due to channel expansion and promotional activities [1][3]. - The report anticipates that the growth in sales volume next year will primarily come from the launch of new models under the NIO brand and the introduction of the lower-priced sub-brand, Firefly [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised from $90 to $108, indicating a potential upside of 24.6% from the current price of $86.70 [3][4][12]. Core Insights - The company's earnings for Q3 2024 met market expectations, with a net profit of HKD 1.32 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 9%. Revenue increased by 30% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter, primarily driven by brokerage commission income [1][2]. - The brokerage commission income saw significant growth, with trading volume increasing by 75% year-on-year and 17% quarter-on-quarter, reaching the highest level since Q2 2021. The proportion of US stock trading volume rose to 80.5% [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute a special dividend of $2 per ADS, totaling $280 million, which represents 61% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenues of HKD 12.325 billion, a net profit of HKD 4.945 billion, and an EPS of HKD 35.57, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.6% [7][9][15]. - The average customer acquisition cost decreased by 6.7% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 2,037, while the customer asset scale approached HKD 700 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 48% [2][8]. - Wealth management assets grew by 88% year-on-year to HKD 97.3 billion, with 27% of paying users holding wealth management products, up 2 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Gaotu Techedu (GOTU US) with a target price of **$4.60**, representing a potential upside of **76.9%** from the current price of **$2.60** [1][4] Core Views - Gaotu Techedu's business restructuring and marketing strategy adjustments are expected to show results by **2025**, with potential cost savings of **RMB 100 million** from operational efficiency improvements [1][2] - The company's **K12 business** is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with **70%+ YoY growth** in Q3 2024, driven by strong demand and effective student retention strategies [1] - The **adult education segment** is undergoing strategic downsizing, with revenue expected to remain flat in Q3 2024, a downgrade from the previously expected **10%+ growth**, resulting in a **RMB 30 million reduction** in revenue [1] - The company's **K9 business** is projected to grow by **150%+** in 2024, exceeding previous expectations, while the adult education segment is expected to see a **low single-digit decline** in Q4 2024 [2] - Despite strong revenue growth, the company is expected to face **operating losses** of **RMB 1.27 billion** in 2024, with a **loss margin of 28%**, due to increased marketing expenses and ongoing business adjustments [2] Financial Performance - **Revenue** is expected to grow by **50% YoY** in 2024, reaching **RMB 4.454 billion**, driven by strong performance in the K12 and K9 segments [2][3] - **Net loss** is projected to widen to **RMB 1.075 billion** in 2024, compared to a net profit of **RMB 51 million** in 2023, due to higher operating costs and business restructuring [3] - The company's **gross margin** is expected to decline to **64%** in Q3 2024, down **8 percentage points YoY**, primarily due to the impact of reduced revenue from the adult education segment [1] - By **2025**, the company expects to achieve a **profit margin** of **10-15%**, driven by improved operational efficiency and reduced marketing expenses [2] Valuation - The target price of **$4.60** is based on a **15x P/E ratio** for the online education business, reflecting the company's expected profitability recovery by 2025 [2] - The valuation has been adjusted downward from the previous target of **$6.50** due to ongoing business restructuring and increased marketing investments [2] Market Performance - Gaotu Techedu's stock has experienced a **28.18% decline** year-to-date, with a **52-week high of $8.35** and a **52-week low of $2.35** [6] - The company's **market capitalization** stands at **$386.10 million**, with an average daily trading volume of **0.67 million shares** [6]

交银国际研究 公司更新 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 美元 32.37 美元 38.40↑ +18.6% 金融科技 2024 年 11 月 20 日 奇富科技 (QFIN US) 3 季度盈利超出指引，股票回购力度加大 盈利增长强劲，超出公司此前指引。2024 年 3 季度 Non-GAAP 净利润为 18.3 亿（人民币，下同），同/环比+54.5%/+29.1%，超出公司此前指引 （15.5-16.5 亿元）。3 季度净收入同/环比+2.1%/+5.1%，盈利显著增长主 要来自 take rate 上升和拨备回拨的贡献（9.1 亿元，对比 2 季度 4.8 亿 元）。公司指引 4 季度 Non-GAAP 净利润为 18-19 亿元人民币之间，对应 同比增速在 57-65%，意味着 2024 年 Non-GAAP 净利润将超过 62 亿元，增 速超过 40%。 促成贷款环比恢复正增长，轻资产模式占比进一步提升。3 季度促成贷款 环比增长 13%，贷款余额环比增长 3%。3 季度持续经营的促成贷款中，轻 资产模式占比 55.1%，同/环比+10.3/+1.1 个百分点；占贷款余额的比重为 58%，同/环比+7.5 ...

交银国际研究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|-----------------------|-----------------------|------------------------------|-------|-------------------------------| | 公司更新 | | | | | | | 汽车 | 收盘价 港元 51.95 | 目标价 港元 77.36 | 潜在涨幅 +48.9% | | 2024 年 11 月 20 日 | | 小鹏汽车 | (9868 HK) | | | | | | 汽车毛利超预期， | P7+ | | 上量有望令汽车毛利进一步改善 | | | 3 季度汽车毛利超预期。3 季度小鹏汽车营收 101 亿元（人民币，下 同），环比上升 24.5%，符合市场和我们预期。汽车销量 4.6 万辆，环比 增长 54.0%。大众合作收入持续入账，服务和其他收入环比大致持平于 13.1 亿元。3 季度毛利率 15.3%，环比上升 1.3 个百分点，其中汽车毛利 率 8.6%，继续环比修 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 24.00, indicating a potential upside of 35.6% from the current price of HKD 17.70 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The core OTA business is expected to grow faster than the industry average, with revenue projections of RMB 17.2 billion for 2024 and RMB 19.8 billion for 2025, reflecting growth rates of 19% and 16% respectively. The operating profit margin is anticipated to exceed 26%, leading to net profits of RMB 2.7 billion and RMB 3.4 billion for the respective years [1][2]. - The company reported a 51% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3 2024, reaching RMB 5 billion, which surpassed market expectations. The core OTA business revenue grew by 22%, driven by significant increases in both transportation and accommodation segments [2][3]. - The forecast for Q4 2024 anticipates a revenue increase of 29% to RMB 40.5 billion, with the core OTA segment expected to grow by 10% [2][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been slightly adjusted, with total revenue expected to be RMB 17.2 billion and RMB 19.8 billion respectively, reflecting growth rates of 44.2% and 15.7% [3]. - The adjusted operating profit margin is projected to improve to 16.3% for 2024 and 17.5% for 2025, with net profit margins expected to be 16.0% and 17.0% respectively [3][9]. - The company’s gross profit margin is forecasted to be 64.4% in 2024, slightly down from previous estimates, but still indicating strong profitability [3]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 22.58%, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 40.4 billion [6]. - The stock's 52-week high and low are HKD 22.30 and HKD 12.70 respectively, indicating significant volatility and potential for growth [6]. Summary of Earnings - The company achieved a net profit of RMB 9.1 billion in Q3 2024, a 47% increase year-on-year, exceeding market expectations by 11% [2][3]. - The operational efficiency is improving, with marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue decreasing to 29%, which is better than the anticipated 33% [2]. Conclusion - The report indicates a positive outlook for the company, driven by strong growth in the core OTA business, improved operational efficiency, and favorable market conditions, supporting the "Buy" rating and the revised target price [1][4][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Kingsoft Corporation (3888 HK) with a target price of HKD 33 00, implying a potential upside of 13 0% from the current closing price of HKD 29 20 [1][4] Core Views - Kingsoft's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong growth in gaming revenue, with total revenue increasing by 42% YoY to RMB 2 92 billion and adjusted operating profit surging by 168% YoY to RMB 1 20 billion [1] - The gaming segment saw a significant YoY/QoQ growth of 78%/33%, primarily due to the success of *JX3: Infinite* and the October update for *JX3*, which boosted user engagement and revenue [2] - WPS revenue grew by 10% YoY, with personal subscriptions increasing by 17% YoY, while B2B SaaS transformation impacts are gradually diminishing [2] - The report forecasts a 30% YoY growth in gaming revenue for 2024, with new game releases in 2025 expected to sustain healthy growth trends [2] - WPS is expected to focus on AI+ collaboration, with AI product upgrades and feature optimizations enhancing user stickiness and paid conversions [2] Financial Model Updates - Revenue forecasts for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E have been revised upwards by 6%, 7%, and 6% respectively, with gaming revenue expected to grow by 13%, 16%, and 14% over the same periods [3] - Adjusted operating profit margins are projected to improve, reaching 35%, 36%, and 37% for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [3] - Adjusted net profit margins are expected to rise to 26%, 24%, and 25% for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, reflecting strong profitability [3] Industry and Peer Comparison - Kingsoft is categorized under the gaming sector, with peers such as Tencent Holdings (700 HK) and NetEase (NTES US) also holding Buy ratings [11] - The report covers a broad range of internet and education companies, with notable Buy ratings for companies like Baidu (BIDU US), Bilibili (BILI US), and Pinduoduo (PDD US) [11] Financial Performance Overview - Kingsoft's Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 2 92 billion, with gaming and other business revenue contributing RMB 1 71 billion, up 78% YoY, and WPS revenue at RMB 1 21 billion, up 10% YoY [6] - Adjusted operating profit for Q3 2024 stood at RMB 1 20 billion, with an operating margin of 41%, up 19 percentage points YoY [6] - The company's gross margin improved to 84% in Q3 2024, up 3 percentage points YoY, driven by higher gaming revenue and operational efficiencies [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from improved risk indicators and an acceleration in loan facilitation growth, with a projected 11% quarter-on-quarter profit growth in Q4 2024 [3]. - The target price has been raised from $6.30 to $7.20, indicating a potential upside of 19.4% [3][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 624 million RMB, marking a 10% year-on-year increase and a 13% quarter-on-quarter increase [1]. - The net income for Q3 grew by 2.5% year-on-year and 3.4% quarter-on-quarter, while expenses increased by 2.7% year-on-year and 4.1% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Loan Facilitation Growth - Loan facilitation in Q3 grew by 1.8% year-on-year, with domestic and international markets growing by 0.8% and 22% respectively [2]. - The company maintains its annual guidance for loan facilitation growth at 5-10% for the domestic market and 20-40% for the international market [2]. International Business Expansion - The international business accounted for 5.2% of loan facilitation in Q3, with revenue contribution rising to 19.4%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company aims for international business to represent 50% of revenue by 2030 [2]. Risk Indicators - The 90-day delinquency rate improved to 2.5%, a decrease of 15 basis points quarter-on-quarter, while the collection rate increased to 88.5%, up 50 basis points [2]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts a 2.3% year-on-year profit growth in 2024, with net income expected to reach 2,394 million RMB [7]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 13,019 million RMB, reflecting a 3.8% year-on-year growth [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Trip.com Group (9961 HK), with a target price raised to HKD 605.00, indicating a potential upside of 26.5% from the current price of HKD 478.20 [1][5][12]. Core Insights - The company's hotel business has performed better than expected, and the transportation segment is returning to normal growth, leading to an upward revision of revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 by 4% and 6% respectively. Trip.com is expected to continue contributing to revenue growth, with manageable investments and losses [1][2]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 15.9 billion for Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16%, surpassing market expectations. The growth was driven by accommodation (+22%), transportation (+5%), vacation (+17%), and business travel (+11%) segments [2][6]. - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 reached RMB 6 billion, a 22% increase year-on-year, exceeding expectations due to optimized cross-selling and effective cost control [2][6]. Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for 2024E have been updated to RMB 52.93 billion, reflecting an 18.8% growth rate, while 2025E revenue is forecasted at RMB 60.6 billion, a 14.5% growth rate [4][17]. - The adjusted operating profit for 2024E is expected to be RMB 16.08 billion, with an operating profit margin of 30.4% [4][17]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024E is projected at RMB 17.84 billion, with a net profit margin of 33.7% [4][17]. Performance Metrics - The company has shown a strong recovery in its hotel and transportation segments, with the average daily rate (ADR) pressure easing and outbound travel bookings recovering to 120% of 2019 levels [2][6]. - Marketing expenses have increased by 23% year-on-year, but remain stable as a percentage of revenue at 21% [2][6]. - The company’s gross profit margin is projected to be 81.5% for 2024E, slightly down from 81.7% in the previous forecast [4][17].

交银国际研究 公司更新 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 美元 88.59 美元 111.00 +25.3% 互联网 2024 年 11 月 18 日 阿里巴巴 (BABA US) 电商单量恢复双位数增速；看好长期变现率提升机会 2025财年2季度（9月季度）业绩：总收入2,365亿元（人民币，下同）， 同比增5%，与我们/彭博市场预期基本一致，其中，淘天+1%/国际+29%/云 +7%/本地生活+14%/菜鸟+8%/大文娱-1%。调整后每股盈利 15.06 元，同比 降 4%，低于我们预期 3%，与彭博市场预期基本一致。调整后 EBITA 同比 降 5%，由于淘天继续投入商品竞争力和用户体验及海外商业布局。 业绩要点：1）淘天单量同比增长双位数，好于预期，CMR 同比增 2.5%， 变现率稳定，全站推产品效果逐步释放，9 月新增技术服务费对变现率有 所拉动，同时也有部分低商业化率的新业务模式影响变现率的提升。2） 国际商业收入受速卖通 Choice 及 Trendyol 带动同比增 29%，相关跨境业务 拓展投入加大，Lazada变现率提升下亏损大幅降低。3）云收入增长加速， 同比增7%，由公共云/AI相关产品带动 ...