| --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------------|----------| | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | | 港元 29.05 | 港元 39.29↑ | +35.3% | 小鹏汽车 (9868 HK) MONA 系列有望引领销量进入第二成长曲线，上调评级至买入 M03 最终价格或极具竞争力，能耗/车机和语音系统比同级别更为优秀。 小鹏将会在 8 月 27 日（今晚）的十周年庆公布 M03 的最终价格，我们认 为最终价格或极具竞争力。M03 的试驾已经提早在上周未和昨天展开，从 渠道观察，小鹏大概率会先交付续航里程515km和620km两个版本。这2 个版本都会配备 360 度全景影像和 L2+的驾驶辅助功能（LCC, ACC 和 APA 等驾驶辅助功能）。第三个搭载 OrinX 芯片的 MAX 版本，具备更高级别的 智驾功能，则有可能在年底才开始交付。此前我们在报告中提到，小鹏的 纯视觉智驾方案有可能首发在 4 季度发布的 P7+上，MAX 版本可能会在小 鹏发布纯视觉智驾方案的更新后才会交付。从我们试驾来观察 ，M03 的 百公里能耗十分优秀在 11 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 9.35, indicating a potential upside of 19.0% from the current price of HKD 7.86 [11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see moderate profit growth in the first half of 2024, driven by resource integration in its gas station operations, leading to an increase in LNG segment profits. The net profit for the first half of 2024 is projected to grow by 2.6% to RMB 3.3 billion, aligning with expectations [2][4]. - The company has successfully integrated gas station resources, which has positively impacted its LNG processing segment, turning a profit of RMB 0.35 billion in the first half of 2024 compared to a loss of RMB 0.55 billion in the same period last year [2]. - The company has declared an interim dividend of RMB 0.164 per share, with a payout ratio of 43%, which is expected to increase to 45% by 2025 [2][4]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2024 is estimated at RMB 188.3 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.2% [14]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected to be RMB 6.8 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% expected from 2023 to 2026 [2][14]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 0.79, representing an 11.2% increase compared to the previous year [14]. - The company’s dividend yield is projected to be 4.7% for 2024 and 5.4% for 2025, making it an attractive investment option [2][14]. Segment Performance - The natural gas sales segment is expected to see a revenue increase of 9.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, despite a decrease in gas station sales volume [4]. - The LNG processing and storage segment is projected to grow by 18.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, benefiting from improved operational efficiency [4]. - The LPG sales segment is anticipated to improve significantly, with a projected year-on-year profit increase of 57% for 2024 [2][8]. Market Position - The company has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 68.06 billion and has shown a year-to-date price change of 11.65% [1][11]. - The stock has a 52-week high of HKD 9.06 and a low of HKD 5.53, indicating a strong recovery potential [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6] Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected Q2 results, with revenue of approximately 2.826 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%, and adjusted EBITDA of 1.312 billion RMB, up 14.9% [1][5] - The company has maintained its full-year guidance, expecting revenue between 11.34 billion and 11.76 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.9% to 18.1% [1][5] - The company is experiencing robust growth in its China operations, benefiting from accelerated onboarding of large internet companies, with Q2 revenue reaching 2.58 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [1][5] - The international business is gaining momentum with significant orders, including a 205MW capacity reservation in Malaysia and a large sales contract with a global tech company [1][5] - The company plans to complete a Series B financing of 600 to 800 million USD by the end of 2024 to support its international expansion [1][5] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects total revenue of 11.508 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 15.6% [4][7] - Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be 4.950 to 5.150 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.0% to 11.4% [4][7] - The company has a market capitalization of approximately 20.88 billion HKD and a year-to-date stock price change of 56.95% [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for AIA Group (1299 HK) [9] Core Insights - The new business value continues to show strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 21.0% in the first half of 2024, primarily driven by contributions from mainland China and Hong Kong [9] - The company expects to expand into 1-2 new provinces or cities within the year [9] - The operating profit after tax (OPAT) has shown steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5% in the first half of 2024 [9] - The company maintains a sustainable shareholder return strategy, with a net free surplus growth of 5.6% in the first half of 2024 [9] Summary by Sections New Business Value - New business value in Hong Kong increased by 26%, with local business and mainland visitor contributions growing by 28% and 24% respectively [9] - In mainland China, new business value grew by 30%, with new market entries increasing by 44% [9] - Singapore's new business value rose by 26.6%, mainly from long-term savings insurance [9] Financial Performance - The company reported a 47% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, driven by improved investment performance [9] - The interim dividend per share increased by 5.2% to HKD 0.445, maintaining a payout ratio of around 50% based on OPAT [9] - The company aims for an annual compound growth rate of 9-11% in OPAT from 2023 to 2026 [9] Market Position - The target price for AIA Group is set at HKD 84.00, indicating a potential upside of 54.3% from the current closing price of HKD 54.45 [8]

交银国际研究 公司更新 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------|------------|----------| | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | | 港元 7.88 | 港元 12.50 | +58.6% | 吉利汽车 (175 HK) 2 季度盈利大幅改善 ，新车型和出口支持销量持续改善，维持买入 2024 上半年业绩基本符合我们预期。吉利上半年营收 1,073 亿元（人民 币，下同），同比增长 46.6%，略高于我们和市场的预期。上半年销量同 比强劲增长 41%至 95.6 万辆，主要由于去年吉利处于新能源转型期基数较 低，银河和极氪销量带动上半年总销量大幅增长。毛利率 15.1%，较去年 同期 14.4%略有改善，我们认为主要受惠于产品组合改善和成本控制。上 半年销售/行政费用增速低于收入增长，分别同比增 32.7%/42.1%。经营利 润受收入大幅增长，毛利率改善和成本控制支持下，同比大幅增149.3%。 上半年归母净利润 106 亿元，同比增 574.7%。扣除雷诺收益和股权支付等 费用，核心归母净利润 46.8 亿元，同比增长 140.5%。 单看 2 季度，收 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------------|----------| | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | | 港元 13.12 | 港元 23.00↓ | +75.3% | 同程旅行 (780 HK) 核心 OTA 收入增~20%，收入虽有下调，但下半年利润率将改善 | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 2 季度业绩：收入 42 亿元（人民币，下同），同比增 48%，与我 | | 们/彭博市场预期基本一致。其中，核心 OTA 业务收入增 23%（交通/住宿 | | +13%/17%），度假业务收入 7.2 亿元。调整后净利润 6.6 亿元，同比增 | | 11%，高于我们/彭博市场预期 5%/4%，对应净利率 15%，较去年同期的 | | 21%有所下降，因度假业务利润率较低及出境业务投入拖累。调整后营销 | | 费用同比增 35%，主要由于营销活动增加，但占收比环比稳定在 35%。 | | - ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Neutral** rating for Henderson Land (12 HK) with a target price of HKD 23.84, implying a potential upside of 10.1% from the current price of HKD 21.65 [1][2] Core Views - Henderson Land's H1 2024 results were in line with expectations, with revenue increasing by 14.4% YoY to HKD 11.76 billion, driven by growth in other income. However, core net profit declined by 10.4% YoY to HKD 5.44 billion, mainly due to lower gross margins and a one-off accounting gain of HKD 1.6 billion from the Sunlight REIT in H1 2023 [1] - The interim dividend per share remained unchanged at HKD 0.5, with the core payout ratio increasing by 4.6 percentage points to 44.6% [1] - Property development gross margins are under pressure, with pre-tax profit declining by 44% YoY to HKD 500 million, excluding the impact of the sale of Grand Victoria East and one-off gains from agricultural land resumption. The company expects higher gross margins in H2 2024, with 60% of the HKD 20.8 billion in contracted sales to be recognized [1] - Rental income remained stable, increasing by 0.9% YoY to HKD 3.46 billion, with occupancy rates steady at 93%. The Henderson, a Grade A office building in Central, was completed in H1 2024 and is expected to contribute rental income in H2 2024, with a pre-leasing rate of 60%, significantly higher than another major new project in the area (<20%) [1] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow by 25.2% YoY to HKD 34.53 billion in 2024E, with core net profit increasing by 12.0% YoY to HKD 10.87 billion. Core EPS is forecasted to grow by 12.0% YoY to HKD 2.25 in 2024E [3] - The company's net debt decreased by 3.9% to HKD 71.02 billion as of June 2024, with a net debt-to-equity ratio of 22.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from December 2023 [5] - Gross margins declined by 9.1 percentage points YoY to 35.5% in H1 2024, while EBIT margins fell by 14.5 percentage points to 29.9% [5] Property Development - Property development revenue increased by 14.0% YoY to HKD 4.94 billion in H1 2024, driven by the sale of Grand Victoria East. However, pre-tax profit declined by 44% YoY to HKD 500 million, excluding one-off gains [1] - The company plans to launch five residential projects in Hong Kong in H2 2024, totaling 960,000 sq. ft., with 56% located in Kai Tak. However, profitability is expected to be under pressure due to ample supply and price reductions in the area [1] Rental Business - Total rental income increased by 0.9% YoY to HKD 3.46 billion in H1 2024, with occupancy rates stable at 93%. The Henderson, a Grade A office building in Central, is expected to contribute rental income in H2 2024, with a pre-leasing rate of 60% [1] - The company's long-term rental growth is expected to come from The Henderson's further leasing and the Central Harbourfront project, which will be completed in phases from 2026 to 2032. However, rental levels and payback periods for these projects may be lower and longer than expected due to oversupply in the office market [1] Peer Comparison - Among Hong Kong property developers, Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) and New World Development (17 HK) have Buy ratings with target prices of HKD 110.1 and HKD 15.8, implying potential upsides of 54.6% and 119.4%, respectively [6] - In the mainland property sector, Yuexiu Property (123 HK) and China Resources Land (1109 HK) have Buy ratings with target prices of HKD 6.6 and HKD 42.82, implying potential upsides of 57.1% and 94.6%, respectively [6]

交银国际研究 宏观策略 2024 年 8 月 22 日 全球宏观 如何看待近 15 年来最大下修的非农年度基准修订？ 美国当地时间 8 月 22 号 10 点 30 分左右公布了 2023 年 4 月至 2024 年 3 月期 间就业增长数据的基准修订。数据显示，截至 2024 年 3 月的 12 个月内，非农 年度基准下修约 81.8 万个（每月 6.8 万个），为近 15 年以来的最大调整。基 准下修意味着每月非农新增就业由之前的 24.6 万下调至 17.8 万。 什么是非农年度基准修正？ 美国劳工部公布的非农年度基准修正是对月度就业数据进行年度校准，目的在 于提高就业数据的准确性。年度基准修正过程主要通过将 CES 抽样调查数据与 几乎覆盖全部就业人口的税收记录进行比对来实现。非农月度数据主要来自于 对约 14.2 万家企业和政府机构的月度抽样调查，而年度基准校正主要使用失 业保险（UI）税收记录作为基准，包括了约 97%的非农就业数据，几乎覆盖全 部就业人口。美国劳工部通过计算 CES 抽样调查估计与失业保险数据之间的差 异，然后在接下来的 12 个月中逐步调整月度数据，汇成年度基准修订。年度 基准 ...

交银国际研究 宏观策略 2024 年 8 月 26 日 全球宏观 降息时点已至——杰克逊霍尔会议点评 自 7 月美国非农数据公布后，衰退疑云始终不散，市场万分期待美联储的下一 步行动，使得这次杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会格外受到关注。市场亟需美联储的 安抚，而鲍威尔此次演讲也符合万众期待，如期释放降息信号。 降息时点已至（The time has come for policy to adjust） 鲍威尔给出迄今为止最明确的降息信号。在本次全球央行年会上，鲍威尔开篇 便回应了市场关切，并认为降息时点已到。支撑他降息的因素包括近期的通胀 走势使得鲍威尔重获信心，并表示就业市场不再是通胀上行的压力之一。而此 前，鲍威尔曾多次强调趋紧的就业市场、上行的工资压力是通胀，特别是核心 服务通胀高居不下的重要原因之一，而如今论述的改变也是转向的重要风向标 之一。 过迟降息的声誉压力可能也推动美联储降息 美联储在此轮加息周期中，一个广受批评的点在于市场认为其"落后于曲线" ——即在通胀上升时期，因为"通胀暂时性"的判断，美联储加息较晚。而在 当前时点，市场衰退担忧升温，认为美联储降息过慢的批评又开始涌现。 声誉之于美联储的重要性 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | --- | --- | --- | |------------|--------------|----------| | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | | 美元 85.79 | 美元 119.00↓ | +38.7% | 百度 (BIDU US) AI 对全产品线改造持续，规模变现尚未开启 2024 年 2 季度业绩：收入 339 亿元（人民币，下同），同比基本持平，与 我们/彭博市场预期基本一致。调整后净利润 74 亿元，对应净利率 22%， 超我们/彭博预期 14%/11%，得益于持续降本增效策略及战略资源分配。 百度核心业绩要点：收入 267 亿元，同比增 1%，调整后经营利润增 8%， 对应利润率 26% ，同比提升约 2 个百分点。 1）广告收入同比降 2%，中小 广告主要受线下恢复影响投放谨慎，房地产、招商及汽车等行业仍较为疲 软。2）智能云收入同比增长加速至 14%，得益于生成式 AI 和大模型增量 拉动以及向 GPU 云客户交叉销售 CPU 云服务，运营利润持续为正。3）萝 卜快跑单量 89.9 万，同比增 26%。6 月 19 日在武汉几乎实现 100%全 ...