2025/4/12 1 基金分析专题报告(深度) 证券研究报告 风险提示：基金相关信息及数据仅作为基金研究使用，不作为募集材料或者宣传材料。本文涉及所有基金历史业绩均不代表未来表现。海外货币政策路径、国内经济复苏进程、刺激政策落实情况。2 3 4 图表：港股、 A 股、美股主要指数阶段涨跌对比 | 市场 | 指数代码 | 指数简称 | 2025YTD | 2024年度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港股 | HSI.HI | 恒生指数 | 15.25% | 17.67% | | | HSCEI.HI | 恒生国企 | 16.83% | 26.37% | | | HSTECH.HI | 恒生科技 | 20.74% | 18.70% | | | | HSSCSOY.HI 恒生港股通中国央企红利 | 2.61% | 28.43% | | A服 | 000001.SH | 上证指数 | -0.48% | 12 67% | | | 000300.SH | 沪深300 | -1.21% | 14.68% | | | 399006.SZ | 创业板指 | -1.77% | 13.2 ...

摘要 折价幅度靠前 50 只 AA 城投债（主体评级）中，"25 河南路桥 MTN002"估值价格偏离程度最大。净价跌幅靠前 50 只 个券中，"24 川发 K3"估值价格偏离幅度最大。净价上涨幅度靠前 50 只个券中，"22 万科 07"估值价格偏离幅度最 大。净价上涨幅度靠前 50 只二永债中，"24 建行二级资本债 02B"估值价格偏离程度最大。 风险提示 统计数据偏差或遗漏，高估值个券出现信用风险 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 固定收益动态(动态) 图表1：折价幅度靠前 50 只 AA 城投债（主体评级） | 债券名称 | 剩余期限 | 估值价格 | 估值净价 | 估值收益率 | 当日估值 | 票面利率 | 隐含 | 主体 | 成交日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (年) | 偏离(%) | (元) | 偏离(bp) | 收益(%) | (%) | 评级 | 评级 | | | 25 河南路桥 MTN002 | 2.89 | -0.27 | 99.74 | 10.17 | 4.5 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Google has launched its seventh-generation TPU, Ironwood (TPU v7), which significantly enhances AI inference capabilities and energy efficiency, expected to be available in late 2025 [15][20] - The active usage of AI applications has shown a notable increase in China, with several applications experiencing over 25% growth [11] - The ongoing tariff disputes are creating significant uncertainty in the storage market, affecting pricing and demand [21] Summary by Sections Google Cloud Next Developments - Google introduced the Agent Development Kit (ADK) to simplify multi-agent system development and management [11] - The new Gemini 2.5 Flash model focuses on efficiency and is set to support local deployment in Q3 2025 [12] - The Vertex AI platform has been updated with new AI tools for video, image, voice, and music generation [12] TPU v7 Launch - Ironwood is designed primarily for AI inference workloads, optimized for large language models and other complex tasks [16] - The TPU v7 supports up to 9,216 chips in a liquid-cooled cluster, achieving a peak performance of 42.5 Exaflops [19] - The memory capacity has increased to 192GB per chip, significantly enhancing data processing capabilities [19] Market Trends - MediaTek has released the Dimensity 9400+ chip, which enhances AI processing capabilities in mobile devices [23][24] - Apple is expected to launch foldable devices in 2026, which may boost consumer interest in foldable technology [26][29] - The report highlights the limited room for hardware improvements in mobile devices compared to PCs, emphasizing the importance of efficiency in AI development [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 84.6 RMB per share based on a 25-year valuation of 23X [4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in China's consumer electrical industry, with a focus on converters and wall switches, achieving an average ROE of approximately 29% from 2020 to 2023. The company aims to diversify into three emerging business areas: new energy, no-main-lighting, and international expansion, with a goal of reaching a revenue target of 100 billion RMB [2][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview and Growth Strategy - The company has established itself as a leader in the consumer electrical sector, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.0% in revenue and 18.7% in net profit from 2020 to 2023, reaching 15.695 billion RMB in revenue and 3.87 billion RMB in net profit in 2023 [16]. - The company has a strong focus on maintaining high ROE levels, with an average of 29.0% from 2020 to 2023, positioning itself as a high-quality growth entity in the A-share light manufacturing industry [16]. 2. Emerging Business Areas - **New Energy Business**: Launched in 2021, this segment includes charging guns and storage products, with a revenue of 290 million RMB in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 120.2%. The company aims to leverage its existing technology and brand reputation to capture market share [3][4]. - **No-Main-Lighting Business**: Focused on health lighting, the company has developed the "Muguang" brand and established over 300 experience stores, driving growth in the lighting segment [3]. - **International Expansion**: The company has initiated its international business with a revenue of approximately 180 million RMB in 2023, targeting markets in Europe and Southeast Asia, with a clear strategy to replicate its domestic success [4]. 3. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 4.295 billion RMB, 4.754 billion RMB, and 5.192 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 10.98%, 10.68%, and 9.22% [4][8]. - The projected ROE for the mid-term is estimated to be in the range of 28-31%, driven by the profitability of emerging businesses and potential adjustments in capital structure through dividends or buybacks [3]. 4. Competitive Advantages - The company has established a strong competitive position in the converter and wall switch markets, with a focus on high net profit margins and market share. The average net profit margin from 2015 to 2023 is approximately 22.3%, supported by a robust brand and product differentiation [16][22]. - The company’s financial characteristics include high net profit margins, moderate turnover rates, and low debt levels, which contribute to its sustained high ROE [16][32]. 5. Management and Operational Efficiency - The company has adopted a unique management system (BBS) inspired by Danaher’s DBS, focusing on internal governance and operational efficiency to support its diversified growth strategy [46][47]. - The BBS framework emphasizes strategic planning, lean marketing, and efficient production processes, which are crucial for the successful expansion of new business lines [46].

海外业务持续放量，盈利能力明显提升：一季度公司实现海外收 入0.84亿元，同比增长128%，实现毛利率54.4%，同比增长8.4pct。 公司工程传动业务持续向海外扩张，同时积极布局数据中心电源 系统业务，远期有望受益海外数据中心需求创造新的业务增长点。 规模效应逐步释放，期间费用下降明显：公司一季度期间费用率 为 23.9%，同比下降 5.9pct，有效对冲新能源电控业务毛利率下 降的影响，预计主要受益于收入规模增长带来的规模效应。具体而 言，一季度销售费用率、管理费用率、研发费用率分别为 10.1%、 4.2%、9.6%，分别同比下降 0.7pct、1.3pct、3.8pct，其中研发 费用率虽大幅下降，但绝对值仍保持增长。 盈利预测、估值与评级 根据公司一季报及我们对行业最新判断，预测公司 2025-2027 年 归母净利润为 6.4、7.6、8.8 亿元，对应 PE 为 21、18、15 倍，维 持"买入"评级。 风险提示 业绩简评 2025 年 4 月 11 日公司披露一季报，Q1 实现营收 7.74 亿元，同比 增长 41.0%；实现归母净利润 1.05 亿元，同比增长 90.4%；实现 扣非归母 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a significant price increase over the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.671 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 45.8% to 355 million RMB [2]. - The decline in insurance IT revenue by 15.3% to 3.047 billion RMB is attributed to the insurance industry's transformation and adjustments in IT spending by some clients [3]. - Non-insurance IT revenues in finance, government, and healthcare sectors showed strong growth, with increases of 32.4%, 20.4%, and 37.3% respectively [3]. - The company has improved cost control and cash flow management, with a 3.1% reduction in employee numbers and a significant increase in operating cash flow by 538.7% to 1.249 billion RMB [4]. - The company is actively pursuing AI applications across various sectors, including a partnership with Huawei for insurance industry AIGC applications [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.671 billion RMB, a 2.6% increase year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders fell to 355 million RMB, a 45.8% decline [2]. Operational Analysis - The share of non-insurance industry revenue has increased, but integrated business has negatively impacted gross margins, which decreased by 5.7 percentage points to 25.8% [3]. - The company reported a significant increase in system integration business revenue, which grew by 35.7% to 16.67 billion RMB [3]. Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 7.468 billion RMB, 8.434 billion RMB, and 9.556 billion RMB, with expected growth rates of 11.95%, 12.94%, and 13.30% respectively [5]. - The forecasted net profit for the same period is 582 million RMB, 765 million RMB, and 956 million RMB, with growth rates of 63.93%, 31.41%, and 25.02% respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 84.6 RMB per share based on a 25-year valuation of 23X [4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in China's consumer electrical industry, with a focus on converters and wall switches, achieving an average ROE of approximately 29% from 2020 to 2023. The company aims to diversify into three emerging business areas: new energy, non-main lighting, and international expansion, with a goal of reaching a revenue target of 100 billion RMB [2][16]. - Future ROE is projected to depend on the profit margin growth of emerging businesses, with mid-term ROE expected to be in the range of 28-31%. Adjusting the capital structure through dividends or buybacks could further enhance this potential [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.0% in revenue and 18.7% in net profit from 2020 to 2023, reaching revenues of 15.7 billion RMB and net profits of 3.87 billion RMB in 2023. The company maintains a high ROE, averaging 29% during the same period [16]. 2. Business Diversification Strategy - The company is adopting a multi-faceted growth strategy, inspired by Danaher's experience, to enhance its operational efficiency and management through the Bull Business System (BBS). This system aims to integrate various business lines and support long-term strategic goals [2][46]. 3. Emerging Business Prospects - **New Energy Business**: Launched in 2021, this segment includes charging guns and storage products, with a revenue of 290 million RMB in the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 120.2%. The company holds the top market share in this segment [3][4]. - **Lighting Business**: The company focuses on health lighting, particularly through its independent brand "Muguang," with over 300 experience stores established. This segment is expected to drive new growth in the lighting business [3]. - **International Expansion**: The company has established an international division in 2023, targeting markets in Europe and Southeast Asia, with a clear strategy to replicate its domestic success [4]. 4. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 4.3 billion RMB, 4.75 billion RMB, and 5.19 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing growth rates of 11.0%, 10.7%, and 9.2% [4][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Not explicitly stated in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market Price and Volume Performance - The report presents detailed data on the secondary - market performance of various REITs, including listing date, issue price, turnover rate, trading volume, and returns (both weekly and year - to - date). For example, the weekly return of some REITs like the "Huatai Baowan Logistics REIT" was 4.01%, and the year - to - date return was 10.80% [11]. 3.2 Secondary Market Valuation Situation - The report provides valuation data such as PV multiplier, P/FFO+, P/NAV, and IRR for different REITs. For instance, the "Red Earth Innovation Yantian Port REIT" had a PV multiplier of 20.83, and an IRR of 3.72% [15]. 3.3 Market Correlation Statistics - The correlation coefficients between REITs indices (including overall and different types) and major asset classes (such as stocks, convertible bonds, pure bonds, commodities) are calculated. For example, the correlation coefficient between the overall REITs index and the Shanghai Composite Index was 0.21 [20]. - The correlation coefficients between individual REITs and major asset classes are also presented. For example, the correlation coefficient between "Bosera Shekou Industrial Park REIT" and the Shanghai Composite Index was 0.19 [21]. 3.4 Primary Market Tracking - Information on REITs in the primary market is provided, including project nature, project type, stage, acceptance date, original equity holder, underlying project, and project valuation. For example, the "Southern Shunfeng Warehouse Logistics REIT" is a property - type warehousing and logistics project with a project valuation of 32.62 billion yuan [23].

业绩简评 2025 年 4 月 11 日公司披露年报，实现营收 46.36 亿元，同比上升 9.3%，处于金融 IT 行业前列；实现归母净利润 3.12 亿元，同比 下降 10.4%；单 Q4 实现营收 12.00 亿元，同比上升 7.2%；实现归 母净利润 0.86 亿元，同比下降 12.9%。 经营分析 AI 赋能效果已在营收端体现，公司人工智能及大数据创新产品实 现营收 0.80 亿元，同比增长 65.3%；智慧客服及消费金融精准营 销业务实现收入 8.20 亿元，同比增长 37.5%。此外，公司软件开 发及服务/金融科技解决方案/数智化运营及服务分别实现营收 16.27 亿元/13.00 亿元/8.09 亿元，同比变动+4.8%/+9.4%/-5.5%。 截至 24 年末，公司共有员工 31,268 人，人均创收为 14.83 万元， 同比增长 7.0%，自 2016 年起持续增长。 公司客户结构持续多元化，24 年来自中小银行客户收入为 4.47 亿元，同比增长 17.3%；来自非银金融机构的收入为 3.66 亿元， 同比增长 23.4%；来自非金融客户收入为 3.01 亿元，同比增长 23.8%。 ...

qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq Smart Beta 策略概述与市场发展 Smart Beta 策略是一种结合主动投资理念与被动投资效率的指数化策略，通过系统化地暴露于价值、成长、低波动、 质量、动量等具有风险溢价的因子，力图在控制成本和透明度的基础上实现风险调整后的超额收益。该策略不同于 传统市值加权指数，采用规则明确、可复制的方式构建投资组合，兼具流动性好、成本低和风格明确的特点。近年 来，随着被动投资理念深入人心，叠加政策层面对指数化投资的大力支持，Smart Beta 策略在全球范围内快速发展。 美国 Smart Beta ETF 市场在 2024 年总规模已超过 2.2 万亿美元，涵盖成长、价值、低波动等多个因子方向，产品结 构日趋成熟。国内市场方面，Smart Beta 基金总规模已突破 1700 亿元，近五年年均增速超过 40%。在监管持续推动 指数供给、提升中长期资金入市便利性的背景下，Smart Beta 有望在提升权益资产配置效率、服务长期资金方面发 挥更重要作用，成为机构投资者的重要投资工具。 2、基金管理人历史业绩不代表未来，需警惕基金业绩不及预期的风险。 3、以上结果根据历史数 ...