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ETF投资宝典系列之二:自由现金流全方位解析与指数比较
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-04-12 08:01
qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq Smart Beta 策略概述与市场发展 Smart Beta 策略是一种结合主动投资理念与被动投资效率的指数化策略,通过系统化地暴露于价值、成长、低波动、 质量、动量等具有风险溢价的因子,力图在控制成本和透明度的基础上实现风险调整后的超额收益。该策略不同于 传统市值加权指数,采用规则明确、可复制的方式构建投资组合,兼具流动性好、成本低和风格明确的特点。近年 来,随着被动投资理念深入人心,叠加政策层面对指数化投资的大力支持,Smart Beta 策略在全球范围内快速发展。 美国 Smart Beta ETF 市场在 2024 年总规模已超过 2.2 万亿美元,涵盖成长、价值、低波动等多个因子方向,产品结 构日趋成熟。国内市场方面,Smart Beta 基金总规模已突破 1700 亿元,近五年年均增速超过 40%。在监管持续推动 指数供给、提升中长期资金入市便利性的背景下,Smart Beta 有望在提升权益资产配置效率、服务长期资金方面发 挥更重要作用,成为机构投资者的重要投资工具。 2、基金管理人历史业绩不代表未来,需警惕基金业绩不及预期的风险。 3、以上结果根据历史数 ...
信用策略备忘录:高波动率的信用策略要点
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-04-11 14:50
Group 1: Quantitative Credit Strategy - As of April 3, the interest rate style portfolio shows significant advantages, with the secondary capital bond heavy strategy experiencing a notable increase in returns, up by 26.4 basis points, marking it as the strategy with the largest gain [2][12] - The overall returns of various strategy combinations are approaching the levels seen at the beginning of the year, with absolute returns for duration and mixed barbell combinations close to 0.6% [2][12] Group 2: Duration Tracking - As of April 4, the weighted average transaction durations for urban investment bonds and industrial bonds are 2.12 years and 2.75 years respectively, both at high historical levels since March 2021 [3][14] - The weighted average transaction durations for secondary capital bonds, perpetual bonds, and general commercial bank bonds are 3.82 years, 3.17 years, and 2.23 years respectively, indicating a varied duration landscape across different bond types [3][14] Group 3: Yield Heatmap of Coupon Assets - As of April 7, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise real estate bonds are generally higher than other types, with non-financial and non-real estate industrial bonds seeing yield declines of over 10 basis points across all maturities [4][18] - Financial bonds with higher valuation yields and spreads include leasing company bonds, capital supplement tools for rural commercial banks, and secondary bonds of securities companies, with an average yield increase of 17.4 basis points [4][18] Group 4: Long-term Credit Bond Activity - There has been an improvement in the trading activity of long-term credit bonds, with the number of transactions for bonds with maturities over 10 years exceeding 80 in late March [5][20] - Despite the increased activity in the 7-10 year segment, the number of transactions for bonds over 10 years has decreased, indicating ongoing investor concerns regarding potential drawdowns and liquidity issues [5][20] Group 5: Local Government Bond Supply and Trading - The local bond market has continued its downward trend since mid to late March, with the 10-year local bond yield dropping to 1.97%, maintaining a spread of 25.2 basis points over the same maturity government bonds, reflecting a high relative value [6][23] - The downward trend in yields across short, medium, and long-term maturities indicates sustained demand for local government bonds in a marginally relaxed funding environment [6][23]
医渡科技(02158):合作顶级医院+深耕数据治理,AI驱动增长提速
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-04-11 14:50
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of 7.00 HKD based on a 2026FY price-to-sales ratio of 7.7x [4]. Core Insights - The AI+ healthcare market is expected to grow rapidly, with specialized diagnostic products aligning well with hospital needs, driven by advancements in AI technology and supportive policies [15][21]. - The company, Yidu Technology, is a leading player in the AI+ healthcare sector, having developed its core AI algorithm, YiduCore, through extensive collaboration with top hospitals [3][30]. - The company has accumulated significant data processing experience, having handled over 11 billion patient interactions and 55 billion medical records, positioning it favorably in the industry [3][45]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The commercialization of AI in healthcare is accelerating, with 46 companies obtaining algorithm registrations related to health by the end of 2024 [2]. - AI-assisted specialized diagnosis and imaging recognition are particularly aligned with hospitals' revenue and reputation goals, leading to increased IT budget allocations [2]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 777 million, 891 million, and 1.069 billion CNY for FY 2025, FY 2026, and FY 2027, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -3.78%, 14.69%, and 20.04% [4][8]. - The net profit forecast for the same period is -106 million, -50 million, and 6 million CNY, indicating a trend towards profitability by FY 2027 [4][8]. Business Structure and Adjustments - The company has a flexible business structure, allowing it to adjust its product offerings in response to market demands, which is expected to lead to continuous improvement in profitability [53]. - The company serves over 2,800 hospitals and has established partnerships with 105 top hospitals, maintaining a leading market share in clinical research [9][33]. AI Platform and Model Development - The company launched an AI platform that integrates various medical applications, which has been deployed in over 20 medical institutions, supporting revenue growth [3][48]. - YiduCore's capabilities have been validated through multiple industry assessments, ranking first in various evaluations, which enhances the company's competitive edge [45][52]. Market Trends and Opportunities - The AI+ healthcare market is witnessing a surge in demand for specialized diagnostic solutions, driven by technological advancements and favorable regulatory environments [15][21]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth due to its extensive data processing capabilities and established relationships with leading healthcare institutions [30][41].
亿纬转债投资简析:动储+消费电池二线龙头,预计上市价格110~115元
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-04-11 13:19
核心观点 亿纬转债本期转债募集资金为 50 亿元,扣除发行费用后将用于 23GWh 圆柱磷酸铁锂储能动力电池项目、21GWh 大圆 柱乘用车动力电池项目。上市日期为 4 月 11 日。 预计上市价格在 110~115 元之间。亿纬转债债项评级 AA+,最新平价为 78.23 元,可参考平价相近的豪鹏转债(最新 收盘价 116 元、溢价率 39%),预计亿纬转债上市首日转股溢价率在 40-45%之间,上市价格在 110~115 元之间,若价 格低于 110 元则可以积极关注。 国内动储电池二线标的。公司从锂原子电池起家,目前已经形成动力电池(收入占比 41%)、储能电池(收入占比 36%)、 消费电池(收入占比 22%)三大业务板块,下游包括国内乘用车&商用车、大储&工商业储能、智能表计&小 3C 设备等, 近年来随着公司的产能释放收入&利润快速增长,但 23 年以来随着行业竞争的加剧、产业链价格快速下降导致收入利 润略有下滑,截止 24 年上半年公司储能电芯出货量排名全球第二、国内新能源商用车市占率第二,为国内动储电池 二线标的。公司跟随行业自 22 年以来受产业链降价、竞争加剧的影响毛利率&ROE 等盈利指 ...
人形机器人行业日度跟踪:GGI 预测 35 年全球人形销量超 500 万台,广汽机器人27年大规模量产-20250411
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-04-11 07:01
行业动态 核心指标 (1)北京推进具备 5G 通信能力的人形机器人在高端制造场景、消费服务场景规模化应用; (2)第 137 届广交会 4 月 15 日开幕,参展企业首次突破 3 万家并首次设立服务机器人专区; (3)GGII:到 2035 年全球人形机器人市场规模将超过 4000 亿元; (4)首批人形机器人系列国家标准正式立项。 公司动态 (1)4 月 10 日,优必选获央视财经报道,桥水基金创始人达利欧点赞中国资产; (2)4 月 9 日,广汽发布具身智能机器人核心部件,目标 25 年小批量试产试销,26 年完成商业模式验证进行小规模 量产,27 年启动大规模量产; (3)4 月 10 日,深圳银河通用具身智能机器人有限公司成立; (4)4 月 9 日,奋达科技与清华大学正式签订《技术开发合同书》,双方将围绕人形机器人关键零部件研发及产业应 用方面开展合作; (5)4 月 10 日,大丰实业公告,公司与上海智元新创技术有限公司签订股权合作协议,双方将共同投资开发匹配文 娱体旅商场景需求的人形机器人项目; (6)4 月 10 日,王兴兴面向浙江省各级干部授课;宇树官微公布 GI 拳击视频。 4 月 10 ...
固定收益动态(动态):大幅折价个券成交跟踪
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-04-11 01:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report According to Wind data, among the bonds traded at a discount, '25 Henan Road and Bridge MTN002' had a relatively large deviation in valuation price. Among the bonds with rising net prices, '21 Vanke 02' had a leading deviation in valuation price. Among the secondary perpetual bonds with rising net prices, '23 Dalian Bank Perpetual Bond 01' had a relatively large deviation in valuation price. Among the commercial financial bonds with rising net prices, '25 China Zheshang Bank Small and Micro Enterprise Bond 01BC' had a leading deviation in valuation price. Among the bonds with a trading yield higher than 10%, real estate bonds ranked at the top. The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the (0,5] range. The trading terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the 2 - 3 year - term varieties having the highest proportion of discount trading. The trading terms of secondary perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years, with the varieties within 1 year having the highest proportion of discount trading. By industry, the bonds in the pharmaceutical and biological industry had the largest average deviation in valuation price [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Discounted Bond Trading - The report tracked the trading of significantly discounted bonds, including details such as the bond name, remaining term, valuation price deviation, valuation net price, valuation yield deviation, valuation yield, previous day's valuation yield, implied rating, issuer rating, industry, and trading volume. For example, '25 Henan Road and Bridge MTN002' had a remaining term of 2.89 years, a valuation price deviation of - 0.27%, a valuation net price of 99.74 yuan, and a trading volume of 39.52 million yuan [4]. 3.2 Bonds with Rising Net Prices - The report tracked the trading of bonds with significant positive deviations in net prices, including details such as the bond name, remaining term, valuation price deviation, valuation net price, valuation yield deviation, valuation yield, previous day's valuation yield, implied rating, issuer rating, industry, and trading volume. For example, '21 Vanke 02' had a remaining term of 0.79 years, a valuation price deviation of 1.11%, a valuation net price of 90.78 yuan, and a trading volume of 9.01 million yuan [5]. 3.3 Secondary Perpetual Bond Trading - The report tracked the trading of secondary perpetual bonds, including details such as the bond name, remaining term, valuation price deviation, valuation net price, valuation yield deviation, valuation yield, previous day's valuation yield, implied rating, issuer rating, bank category, and trading volume. For example, '23 Dalian Bank Perpetual Bond 01' had a remaining term of 2.78 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.11%, a valuation net price of 104.40 yuan, and a trading volume of 198.16 million yuan [6]. 3.4 Commercial Financial Bond Trading - The report tracked the trading of commercial financial bonds, including details such as the bond name, remaining term, valuation price deviation, valuation net price, valuation yield deviation, valuation yield, previous day's valuation yield, implied rating, issuer rating, bank category, and trading volume. For example, '25 China Zheshang Bank Small and Micro Enterprise Bond 01BC' had a remaining term of 2.99 years, a valuation price deviation of 0.01%, a valuation net price of 100.01 yuan, and a trading volume of 1.75021 billion yuan [7]. 3.5 Bonds with a Trading Yield Higher than 10% - The report tracked the trading of high - yield bonds, including details such as the bond name, remaining term, valuation price deviation, valuation net price, valuation yield deviation, valuation yield, previous day's valuation yield, implied rating, issuer rating, industry, and trading volume. For example, '21 Vanke 02' had a remaining term of 0.79 years, a valuation price deviation of 1.11%, a valuation net price of 90.78 yuan, a valuation yield of 17.14%, and a trading volume of 9.01 million yuan [8]. 3.6 Distribution of Credit Bond Valuation Deviations The changes in credit bond valuation yields were mainly distributed in the (0,5] range [2]. 3.7 Distribution of Non - financial Credit Bond Trading Terms The trading terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the 2 - 3 year - term varieties having the highest proportion of discount trading [2]. 3.8 Distribution of Secondary Perpetual Bond Trading Terms The trading terms of secondary perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years, with the varieties within 1 year having the highest proportion of discount trading [2]. 3.9 Distribution of Discounted Trading Proportions and Trading Volumes by Industry By industry, the bonds in the pharmaceutical and biological industry had the largest average deviation in valuation price [2].
湖南黄金(002155):公司点评:价格环比下跌拖累业绩,关注锑价再次上涨
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-04-11 01:41
事件 4 月 10 日公司发布 2024 年报,2024 年实现收入 278.39 亿元,同 比+19.46%;归母净利润 8.47 亿元,同比+73.08%。4Q24 收入为 68.49 亿元,环比+16.98%,同比+50.53%;归母净利润为 1.80 亿 元,环比-21.43%,同比+71.32%。 点评 价、量环比下滑拖累 4Q24 业绩表现。4Q24 锑、金均价分别环比- 8.98%、+7.94%至 14.69 万元/吨、614 元/克,2024 年公司销售黄 金、锑品同比分别减少 2.58%、14.72%;出口管制或为销量下降的 重要原因。4Q24 公司毛利率环比/同比分别-1.38pct/-0.75pct 至 8.61%, 2024 年公司自产金和自产锑品分别同比-6.13%/-13.2%, 综合考虑公司业务结构、成本和价格波动,我们认为 4Q24 自产量 环比下滑或为毛利率下降主要原因。 计提大额研发费用,资本结构良好。4Q24 公司期间费用、期间费 率分别环比+19.28%、+0.08pct 至 2.97 亿元、4.34%,主要原因系 研发费用显著增加,4Q24 公司研发费用环比+200% ...
平高电气(600312):公司点评:Q1业绩超预期,盈利能力持续提升
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-04-11 01:28
4 月 10 日,公司披露 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报,2024 年实现营 收 124.0 亿元,同比+12.0%,实现归母净利 10.2 亿元,同比+25.4%, 实现毛利率 22.4%,同比+1.0pct。25Q1 实现营收 25 亿元,同比 +22.8%,实现归母净利 3.6 亿元,同比+55.9%,实现毛利率 28.7%, 同比+3.5pct,25Q1 业绩超预期。 高压开关龙头地位稳固,盈利能力持续提升。24 年公司国网 1000/750/500kV 组合电器市场份额分别为 44.5%/35.9%/25.6%, 均列行业第一,南网批次招标市场占有率保持领先,国内网外单机 大幅提升。24 年公司确认甘孜等 14 间隔 1000 千伏 GIS,庆阳换 流站等 97 间隔 750 千伏 GIS,高压产品占比提升带动板块营收、 盈利能力持续提升,高压板块实现营收 77.0 亿元,同比+25.1%, 实现毛利率 25.5%,同比+2.7pct。 25 年电网投资维持高景气,优质订单有望持续增长。25 年国网计 划投资超 6500 亿元,南网安排 1750 亿元固定资产投资,均创历 史新高。国网输变电 ...
顶点软件(603383):公司点评:信创客户再下一城,AI功能持续优化
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-04-11 01:27
业绩简评 2025 年 4 月 10 日公司披露年报,实现营收 6.64 亿元,同比下降 10.8%;实现归母净利润 1.94 亿元,同比下降 16.8%;单 Q4 实现 营收 2.43 亿元,同比下降 15.2%;实现归母净利润 0.93 亿元,同 比下降 18.1%,主要受到金融行业客户 IT 投入节奏放缓影响。 经营分析 分业务来看,新交易体系业务方面,A5 在中信/南京/上海证券等 多家机构同步推进,24 年客户数已达 10 家。公司近日中标光大证 券核心交易系统项目,进行分布式、低时延、开放式架构及全栈 信创化改造。作为唯一全面实现国产替代的新一代核心交易系统, A5 信创经验有望向更多券商复制。财富管理业务方面,24 年新增 客户 20 余家,客户总数 300 余家。大运营体系业务方面,公司实 现产品线 100%信创适配,可提供多维子账户全流程数字化管理。 24 年公司销售费用同比下降 13.9%,主要系市场宣传减少及销售 人员减少 7.6%所致;公司管理费用同比下降 11.6%,主要系股份 支付费用同比减少 804.6 万所致;研发投入保持较高水平,研发 费用率为 23.0%,较上年同期增长 2 ...
湖南黄金:公司点评:价格环比下跌拖累业绩,关注锑价再次上涨-20250411
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-04-11 01:23
事件 4 月 10 日公司发布 2024 年报,2024 年实现收入 278.39 亿元,同 比+19.46%;归母净利润 8.47 亿元,同比+73.08%。4Q24 收入为 68.49 亿元,环比+16.98%,同比+50.53%;归母净利润为 1.80 亿 元,环比-21.43%,同比+71.32%。 点评 价、量环比下滑拖累 4Q24 业绩表现。4Q24 锑、金均价分别环比- 8.98%、+7.94%至 14.69 万元/吨、614 元/克,2024 年公司销售黄 金、锑品同比分别减少 2.58%、14.72%;出口管制或为销量下降的 重要原因。4Q24 公司毛利率环比/同比分别-1.38pct/-0.75pct 至 8.61%, 2024 年公司自产金和自产锑品分别同比-6.13%/-13.2%, 综合考虑公司业务结构、成本和价格波动,我们认为 4Q24 自产量 环比下滑或为毛利率下降主要原因。 计提大额研发费用,资本结构良好。4Q24 公司期间费用、期间费 率分别环比+19.28%、+0.08pct 至 2.97 亿元、4.34%,主要原因系 研发费用显著增加,4Q24 公司研发费用环比+200% ...