截至 2025 年 4 月 14 日，存量信用债估值及利差分布特征如下： 城投债： 公募城投债中，江浙两省加权平均估值收益率均在 2.6%以下；收益率超过 4.5%的城投债出现在贵州地级市及区县级； 其余区域中，云南、内蒙古等地的利差也较高。与上周相比，公募城投债表现在不同期限间分化，1 年内品种平均下 行幅度达到 0.8BP，2 年以上券种收益率则均有一定程度上行。具体来看，收益下行幅度较大的品种的包括 1-2 年山 东区县级永续、1 年内湖北区县级永续、2-3 年云南地级市非永续、1 年内辽宁区县级非永续债等。 私募城投债中，上海、浙江、广东、福建等沿海省份的加权平均估值收益率在 3%以下；收益率高于 4.5%的品种出现 在贵州、辽宁地级市；其余的云南、甘肃、青海等地的利差也较高。与上周相比，私募城投债收益率下行居多，1 年 内品种平均下行 1.7BP。具体来看，收益率下行幅度较大的有 3-5 年云南地级市非永续、3-5 年吉林地级市非永续、 1-2 年甘肃地级市非永续及 1 年内辽宁区县级非永续城投债，分别对应下行 5.9BP、6.2BP、12.1BP 和 23.2BP。 产业债： 民企地产债估值收益率 ...

很多公司也预告了二季度的业绩业绩的话呢还是比较超预期的我们认为整个行业的复苏呢还是在持续在推进我们也是继续看好AI和需求复苏的一个产业链那首先我们看一下采集店也是公布了这个Q2的业绩营收的话是208亿美金红米增长32%华米增长4.3%这个业绩的话呢还是很不错的那其中高性能计算的这个营收呢华米增长了28% 然后营收占比的话也是创了新的占比高然后达到52%另外的话像数字消费电子DC这一块的话凡米增长也有20%然后并预测公司的Q3的收入是224到232亿美元同比只有32%的增长凡米只有9.5%的提升然后预测Q3的毛利率会达到50.5的中间值毛利率的话我们觉得也是比较超预期的 然后另外的话呢公司的话呢也把这个今年的资本开支进行了一个上调啊然后从这个原来的这个二百八到三百亿美金现在上调到这个三百二到三百二十亿美金啊公司的资本开支的话呢基本上百分之七十到八十的话呢是用于这个先进制造 先进制造另外的话呢这个公司也提到进一步的这个高瓦斯的产能的增长翻倍都还不止啊明年的话呢可能还有翻倍以上的一个成长啊因为我们了解一下这九金未来的第一线芯片啊然后我们的面积比较大 而且公司目前的先进制程这一块的话基本上产能已经打满了然后基本上公司 ...

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call was organized by Guojin Securities, focusing on professional investment institutions and invited clients Core Points and Arguments - The content of the meeting is intended for the exchange of research views and does not constitute investment advice for any individual or entity [1] - The opinions expressed by the experts during the call represent their personal views [1] - There is a strict prohibition on the dissemination, reproduction, or modification of the meeting content without prior written permission from Guojin Securities [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The meeting emphasizes the confidentiality of the information shared and the importance of adhering to the guidelines set by Guojin Securities [1]

经营分析 公司业绩短期承压，看好交换芯片 25 年上量。根据公司 24 年快 报，预计公司 2024 年度实现营业收入为 10.8 亿元，同比增加 4.28%；实现归母净利润为-0.69 亿元，较上年同期亏损增加 0.49 亿元。虽然公司营收实现增长，但公司与海外头部交换芯片厂商在 产品丰富度以及产品性能上仍存在差距，公司仍处于高研发投入 的发展阶段，再叠加产品销售结构变化以及部分产品毛利率波动 的影响，导致公司仍处于亏损状态，但是亏损幅度缩窄。 持续加大研发费用投入，期待 25 年新品放量。公司为实现长期战 略发展目标，抓住当下国产化、集成电路和网络通信行业发展趋势 带来的机会，公司持续加大高端领域芯片的研发投入，积极推进中 低端产品迭代与升级，高强度的研发投入导致 2024 年度利润表现 承压，预计在产品的进一步升级和丰富完善后，能够为公司的长远 发展注入新的动能。 事件简评 4 月 14 日，公司收到股东国家集成电路产业投资基金股份有限公 司出具的《关于减持计划时间届满的告知函》，截至 2025 年 4 月 11 日收盘，产业基金通过集中竞价或大宗交易的方式累计减持了 公司股份 10,307,874 股 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows a recovery in profitability, with revenue of 84.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 14 billion yuan, up 33% year-on-year and down 5% quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The company expects a stable production schedule for Q2 2025, with a projected shipment growth of 25% to 30% for the year, driven by increased market share in Europe and additional contributions from commercial vehicles and data center storage batteries [2][4] Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - Q1 2025 saw a shipment of 125 GWh, a 30% increase year-on-year, although down 13% quarter-on-quarter. The increase in energy storage's share has extended the revenue recognition cycle [2] - The average unit price of batteries in Q1 was 0.6 yuan/Wh, down 17% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to lower raw material costs [2] - The company's Q1 operating and net profit per unit were 0.084 and 0.099 yuan/Wh, respectively, both showing a nearly 10% increase [2] Future Outlook - The company anticipates minimal impact from U.S. tariffs, with exposure remaining in the low single digits. The tariff policies in other countries are stable, and European shipments are expected to grow over 20% [2] - The company maintains a target return on equity (ROE) of 24% to 25% [2] Research and Development - The company is significantly investing in R&D, with innovations such as the "Shenxing" ultra-fast charging battery and "Tianxing" heavy-duty commercial vehicle battery being developed. The company is also enhancing manufacturing efficiency through automation technologies [3] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 70 billion yuan in 2025 and 83.9 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14x and 12x [4][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 84.7 billion yuan for Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 6% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 14 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5% [1]. - The gross margin was 24.4%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9 percentage points. The net margin was 17.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% [1]. - The company expects to maintain a shipment growth rate of 25%-30% for 2025, driven by increased demand in Europe and contributions from commercial vehicles and data center storage batteries [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - The company achieved a shipment of 125 GWh in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 30% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13%. The slower revenue recognition is attributed to an increased proportion of energy storage on the AC side, which has a longer revenue recognition cycle [2]. - The unit battery price for Q1 was 0.6 yuan/Wh, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 17% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5%, primarily due to lower raw material costs [2]. - The estimated unit operating and net profit for Q1 were 0.084 yuan/Wh and 0.099 yuan/Wh, respectively, both showing a nearly 10% increase compared to the previous periods [2]. Future Outlook - The company has a full production schedule for April and Q2 2025, with minimal exposure to U.S. tariffs. The tariff impact is expected to be in the low single digits, and other countries' tariff policies remain stable [2]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in shipments to Europe, with an expected growth rate exceeding 20% due to favorable market conditions [2]. Research and Development - The company is committed to high levels of R&D investment, significantly exceeding industry standards. New products such as the "Shenxing" ultra-fast charging battery and "Tianxing" heavy-duty commercial vehicle battery are being developed, along with innovations in battery swapping technology [3]. - The company is also enhancing manufacturing efficiency through automation technologies like robotic arms and AGVs, aimed at improving production capabilities [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 700 billion yuan and 839 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14x and 12x [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, suggesting a potential upside of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a premium income of 8 billion yuan in Q1, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.3%, with March alone generating 2.9 billion yuan, up 15.1% year-on-year [2]. - The insurance business is expected to see continued profitability optimization, driven by rapid growth in health and auto insurance premiums, with a projected annual premium growth rate exceeding 10% [3]. - The bank segment is anticipated to break even by 2025, with significant user growth and a comprehensive service offering in the Hong Kong market [3]. - The technology segment is leveraging AI applications to enhance core business operations, with expectations of sustained profitability in 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections Insurance Business - Premium income is expected to grow significantly, with health insurance and auto insurance as key drivers. The company launched a new high-end medical insurance product that generated over 140 million yuan in just ten days [3]. - The overall insurance base is improving, with a forecasted underwriting profit growth in double digits for 2025 [3]. Banking Business - The virtual bank is projected to achieve breakeven in 2025, following a substantial reduction in losses in 2024. The user base has surpassed 800,000, positioning the bank as a leader in the Asian market for retail services [3]. Technology Business - AI applications are being integrated into core business functions, with significant cost reduction and revenue enhancement potential. The demand for AI solutions is expected to grow, particularly in the context of the IFRS 17 transition [4]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of approximately 900 million yuan in 2025, up from 600 million yuan in 2024, indicating high growth elasticity [5]. - The projected price-to-book (PB) ratio for 2025 is 0.67, suggesting a favorable valuation opportunity [5].

事件 4 月 11 日，公司披露原保费收入情况，Q1 实现保费收入 80 亿元， 同比 12.3%；3 月当月保费收入 29 亿元，同比 15.1%。 经营分析 保险业务：盈利持续优化。预计 Q1 保费较快增长由健康险、车险 保费高增带来，其中健康险由产品创新驱动，公司 2 月上市了覆 盖非标体的中高端医疗险众民保，发售仅十天全网保费即超过 1.4 亿元。全年来看，保险基本盘持续优化，25 年承保盈利预计实现 双位数增长：1）全年保费预期增速 10%以上，其中健康险和车险 是重要发力点，退运险将压缩，保证险将审慎发展。2）COR 预期 较 2024 年略有优化，来源于退运险的压缩、健康险费用率的降低、 以及保证险赔付改善。 银行业务：预计 25 年实现盈亏平衡。众安银行香港市场领先的虚 拟银行，25 年预计将实现盈亏平衡（24 年银行净亏损 2.32 亿港 元实现大幅减亏）。用户数量超 80 万人，是当前亚洲唯一同时提 供基金、美股及虚拟资产交易零售服务的持牌银行，业务布局趋 于完善投入减少叠加规模效应显现，预计 2025 年有望实现扭亏为 盈，长期增长潜力大。 科技业务：对内 AI 应用赋能核心业务且 25 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 12.12 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 570 million RMB, up 31% year-on-year [2][4]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the global freight forwarding and chemical distribution businesses, with freight forwarding revenue increasing by 56% to 3.47 billion RMB and chemical distribution revenue rising by 20% to 5.18 billion RMB [3][4]. - The overall gross margin decreased to 11.4%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to a decline in the gross margin of the global freight forwarding business [4]. Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.57 billion RMB, a 20.7% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 75 million RMB, which is a significant increase of 164% [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.34 billion RMB, reflecting a 15.4% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 170 million RMB, up 14% year-on-year [2]. Financial Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 670 million RMB and 810 million RMB, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 970 million RMB [4][8]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory with projected revenues of 13.36 billion RMB in 2025 and 14.96 billion RMB in 2026, representing growth rates of 10.25% and 11.99% respectively [8][9]. Strategic Developments - The company is actively expanding its overseas shipping business, with plans to purchase four new bulk carriers to enhance its liquid chemical shipping capabilities [4]. - This strategic move is aimed at leveraging local partnerships and the advantageous position of Singapore as an international shipping hub to support overseas market expansion [4].

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 240415 240715 241015 250115 人民币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 成交金额 青鸟消防 沪深300 业绩简评 盈利预测、估值和评级 预计公司 25~27 年营业收入分别为 51.4/56.4/62.2 亿元，同 比+4.4%/+9.7%/+10.3%；归母净利润分别为 5.5/6.5/7.4 亿 元，同比+55.4%/+19.0%/+12.6%，对应 15X/13X/11X PE， 维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 国内民商用消防行业出清不及预期；住宅更新节奏不及预期； 工业消防大客户突破不及预期；大股东股权质押的风险。 | 公司基本情况（人民币） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目 | 2 023 | 2 024 | 2 025E | 2 026E | 2 027E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 4 ,972 | 4 ,923 | 5 ,142 | 5 ,640 | 6 ,220 | | ...