Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 78.9, indicating a potential upside of 24.3% from the current price of HKD 63.5 [4][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant revenue growth of 120%-125% year-on-year in Q3 2024, surpassing market expectations, and demonstrating strong operational capabilities in IP management and global expansion potential [2][3]. - The report highlights a robust performance in the Chinese market, with revenue growth of 55%-60% in Q3 2024, compared to 32% in the first half of the year, showcasing the company's resilience in a challenging economic environment [2][7]. - Internationally, the company reported an impressive 440%-445% revenue growth in Q3 2024, further validating its global expansion strategy and the effectiveness of its IP monetization efforts [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been revised upwards by 20%-31%, with net profit estimates increased by 24%-36% [2][8]. - The company is expected to generate revenues of RMB 12,395 million in 2024, RMB 17,733 million in 2025, and RMB 22,156 million in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 96.7%, 43.1%, and 24.9% respectively [3][5]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 2,599 million, with a significant year-on-year increase of 140.1% [3][5]. Market Position and Valuation - The current valuation stands at 18.8 times the estimated P/E for 2025, with a PEG ratio of approximately 0.3, indicating that the stock remains attractive compared to other consumer stocks in China [2][3]. - The company’s strong IP incubation capabilities and optimistic outlook for international markets contribute to a strong long-term growth trajectory [2][3].

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 台积电 （2330. T T/TSM.US） 公司研究 | 科技行业 台积电（2330.TT/TSM.US）：三季度毛 利率超市场预期，AI 强劲需求将带动 四季度毛利率提升 上调台积电 2024 年、2025 年盈利预测，并上调台积电（2330.TT）目 标价至 1,273.5 新台币，潜在升幅 17%，上调台积电（TSM.US）目标 价至 228.8 美元，潜在升幅 13%，均维持"买入"评级。 重申台积电的"买入"评级：台积电，作为全球晶圆龙头，充分享受 本轮 AI 浪潮中供应端算力的增量红利。而且，得益于先进制程的领 先地位，台积电几乎覆盖了跟 AI 相关的全部需求。我们看到公司今 年 AI 相关产品需求持续旺盛。在本次三季度业绩会上，台积电再次 上调全年收入增速指引至接近 30%，上调全年资本开支至略高于 320 亿美元。这也表明台积电仍处在半导体周期上行阶段。我们预计公司 2024 年、2025 年盈利将同比增长 36%、33%，对应 2024 年、2025 年 市盈率为 28.6x、21.5x，对应 EV/EBITDA 为 16.5x、13.2x。我们重申 对台 ...

Market Overview - The recent market trading logic has changed significantly due to a series of monetary easing policies and support measures for the real estate and capital markets announced on September 24, which exceeded market expectations [2][10] - Following the announcement, the Chinese stock market experienced a substantial rebound, but since October 9, the market has returned to a consolidation phase as it awaits further policy stimuli [2][10] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 19.9%, the MSCI China Index by 18%, and the Hang Seng Index by 23% from September 16 to October 17 [10] Valuation Insights - The market's optimistic sentiment has driven a rapid recovery in valuations, with the MSCI China Index and Hang Seng Index's forward P/E ratios at 10.2x and 9.3x, respectively, as of October 17, which are below their five-year averages [15][17] - The AH premium has slightly narrowed to 46% as of October 17, indicating that Hong Kong stocks still present significant value compared to A-shares [15][21] Earnings Growth Expectations - Earnings growth expectations for the next two years have been revised downwards, with the 2024 earnings growth for the MSCI China Index adjusted to 17.5% from 17.9% [22][24] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, tracking U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, saw its 2024 earnings growth forecast reduced to 20.3% [22][24] Capital Flows - There has been a significant net inflow of foreign capital into the Chinese market, with $18.66 billion entering from September 19 to October 16, primarily driven by passive funds [27] - Domestic capital also showed strong net inflows of $38.95 billion during the same period, indicating increased trading activity among local investors [27][28] Sector and Style Rotation - The current market phase is characterized by a consolidation period, with a focus on defensive sectors such as telecommunications and consumer staples, which are expected to outperform in the short term [2][3] - High-yield stocks and blue-chip companies with substantial buybacks are highlighted as having medium to long-term investment value [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lens Technology (300433.CH) with a target price of RMB 26.6, representing a potential upside of 18.1% [1][9]. Core Views - Lens Technology's Q3 performance exceeded both the report's and market expectations, particularly in gross margin. The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth in the next two years, driven by various factors including the momentum from Apple iPhone, expansion in Android smartphone assembly, new AI PC business, and growth in automotive business [1][9]. - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to R&D and business expansion while maintaining a relatively restrained capital expenditure in the short term, which is favorable for profit growth [1][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, Lens Technology reported revenue of RMB 17.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30%, marking five consecutive quarters of double-digit year-on-year growth [1][7]. - The gross margin reached 21.4%, up 1.0 percentage points year-on-year and 5.0 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, surpassing market expectations [1][7]. - Operating profit grew significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 56% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 210%, resulting in a net profit of RMB 1.51 billion, up 38% year-on-year and 173% quarter-on-quarter [1][7]. Earnings Forecast - The report projects Lens Technology's revenue to reach RMB 68.1 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25% and a net profit of RMB 4.23 billion, reflecting a 40% increase [3][8]. - For 2025, revenue is expected to be RMB 79.9 billion, with a net profit of RMB 5.03 billion, indicating a 19% growth [3][8]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning price-to-earnings ratios of 33.0x for smartphones and computers, 30.0x for new energy vehicles, and 25.0x for smart wearables, leading to the target price of RMB 26.6 [9][10].

Economic Growth - In Q3, China's GDP growth slowed to 4.6%, slightly above the market expectation of 4.5%[1] - Cumulative GDP growth for the first three quarters fell to 4.8%[1] - Q3 quarter-on-quarter growth improved to 0.9%, but still below the expected 1.1%[1] Consumer Data - In September, retail sales growth rose to 3.2%, up from 2.1% in August, exceeding the market expectation of 2.5%[1] - The two-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for retail sales increased to 4.3%[1] - Service retail growth declined to 6.7%, while dining retail growth fell to 3.1%[1] Real Estate Sector - Real estate development investment's cumulative year-on-year decline narrowed to -10.1% in September, slightly worse than the market expectation of -10%[2] - New construction area decline reduced by 0.3 percentage points to -22.2%[2] - Property sales continued to show improvement, with sales area decline at -17.1%, down from -18% in August[2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth stabilized at 3.4% in September, slightly above the market expectation of 3.3%[1] - Manufacturing investment growth rebounded to 9.2%, reflecting the impact of upgraded equipment renewal policies[2] - Infrastructure investment growth continued to decline, dropping to 4.1%[2] Employment and Inflation - The unemployment rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 5.1%, better than the expected 5.3%[3] - Core CPI growth dropped to 0.1%, marking the lowest level since March 2021[3] - Private sector credit demand remains weak, indicating ongoing challenges in economic recovery[3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Spring Medical (688236.CH/1858.HK) with a "Buy" rating, setting a target price of RMB 16.20 for A-shares and HKD 10.60 for H-shares [2][3]. Core Insights - Spring Medical's revenue is significantly driven by joint products, which are expected to recover post-2024 as the procurement risks associated with national collection clear up. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in the orthopedic consumables market due to an increase in patient numbers, improved treatment rates, and domestic product substitution [2][3]. - The orthopedic consumables sector is projected to experience a recovery in growth following the normalization of anti-corruption measures and the completion of national procurement processes. The company’s knee joint products have also secured procurement contracts, further enhancing revenue visibility [2][3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The financial projections indicate a revenue of RMB 1,209 million for 2023, with a decline to RMB 989 million in 2024, followed by a recovery to RMB 1,165 million in 2025 and RMB 1,357 million in 2026. The net profit is expected to decrease from RMB 278 million in 2023 to RMB 260 million in 2024, before rising to RMB 311 million in 2025 and RMB 369 million in 2026 [4][12][13]. - The report assigns a target valuation multiple of 20x for A-shares and 12x for H-shares based on the 2025 estimated PE, reflecting a 40% discount for H-shares compared to A-shares [3][6]. Market Context - The orthopedic industry has achieved near-complete national procurement coverage, with joint products expected to see the first alleviation of procurement pressure. The average price reduction for joint products is projected at a moderate 6% [15][18]. - The domestic market share for orthopedic implants is estimated at around 50%, with significant room for growth, particularly in the joint and spinal categories, as domestic brands gain traction following national procurement initiatives [18][19].

Policy Measures - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced the implementation of 1 million new urban village and dilapidated housing renovations through monetized resettlement[1] - By the end of the year, the credit scale for "white list" projects will be increased to 4 trillion yuan, nearly doubling the current amount of 2.23 trillion yuan approved loans[2] - The government will allow local authorities to issue special bonds and provide tax incentives to support the financing of these projects[1] Market Outlook - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market, with a focus on policy implementation in the short term and potential expansion of monetized resettlement in the medium term[3] - If policies are effectively implemented, property sales are expected to stabilize by mid-next year, with a potential positive year-on-year growth rate[3] - The need for renovation in 35 major cities is estimated at 1.7 million units, indicating significant demand for housing improvements[1] Financial Support - Special loans will be provided by development and policy financial institutions to support the renovation projects[1] - The central bank is expected to issue special re-loans to facilitate the acquisition of existing land by qualified enterprises[2] - The government has approximately 2.3 trillion yuan in special bond funds available for use in the last three months of the year, with an additional 290 billion yuan remaining for issuance[2]

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 华润微 （688396.CH） 公司研究 | 半导体行业 华润微（688396.CH）：MOS 价格 触底，产能稳步扩张 我们下调了华润微 2024 年、2025 年盈利预测，下调目标价至人民币 56.4 元，潜在升幅 16%，维持"买入"评级。 • 重申华润微的"买入"评级：华润微正在从功率半导体周期底部复苏 向上。华润微的产能利用率从 2024 年 6 月开始保持满载。虽然 IGBT 的 价格仍然不稳定，但是 MOS 产品价格已经企稳。我们预期华润微今年 下半年收入将较上半年增长，且毛利率保持稳中微升。今年下半年新能 源领域需求将从此前低点复苏，而汽车领域保持较高增长。展望明年， 我们认为华润微业务驱动力主要来自于三个部分：1）MOS 产品，包括 中低压产品，持续上量，2）MOS、IGBT、TMBS、IPM、SiC 五类模块产 品快速增长，3）功率 IC 借助国产化趋势及新产线贡献增量。因此，我 们对公司明年的基本面持续改善保持乐观。MOS、模块产品、功率 IC 产 品三大类将推动公司业绩成长。目前，华润微远期市盈率为 48x，相对 历史高位估值还有上行空间，重申"买入" ...

Group 1 - The report analyzes the Japanese stock market's four bull markets from 1990 to 2000, focusing on macroeconomic factors such as GDP, inflation, interest rates, policies, and exchange rates that drove market performance [2][5][19] - It suggests that the current Chinese stock market may have entered a consolidation phase, recommending attention to high-yield Hong Kong stocks and blue-chip stocks with significant buybacks [2][25] - The report highlights that during the bull market from 1992 to 1993, the Japanese stock market experienced a significant rebound, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 47% and the TOPIX index increasing by 49% [17][19] Group 2 - The report identifies three phases in the 1992-1993 Japanese bull market: a rapid rebound phase, a consolidation phase, and a renewed upward phase, with the second phase characterized by quick sector rotation and alpha opportunities [3][21] - It emphasizes the importance of fundamental factors in sustaining market performance, noting that investor sentiment often returns to focus on economic growth and corporate earnings after initial policy-driven market movements [5][19] - The report suggests that the current market conditions in China bear similarities to the Japanese market during the early 1990s, particularly regarding policy shifts and economic recovery [19][24] Group 3 - The report recommends strategies for navigating the current market, including investing in quality high-yield Hong Kong stocks and companies that have engaged in significant share buybacks [26][29] - It notes that as of October 15, 2024, 251 Hong Kong companies have conducted share buybacks totaling HKD 2,195 billion, significantly exceeding the previous year's total [29] - The report lists top-weighted stocks in the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend ETF, highlighting companies with strong fundamentals and cash flow [27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to $15.9, reflecting a potential upside of 4% from the current price of $15.3 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a revenue decline of 9.5% year-on-year in Q3 2024, aligning with its prior guidance, with projected revenue of RMB 20.6 billion [2]. - The gross margin is anticipated to be 23.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 1.26 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin of 6.1%, down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - For 2024, the estimated revenue is projected to be RMB 107 billion, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 8.62 billion and an adjusted net profit margin of 8.0% [2]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 107,047 million, slightly down from the previous forecast of RMB 107,363 million, indicating a change of -0.29% [3]. - The gross profit is expected to be RMB 25,032 million, with a gross margin of 23.4%, reflecting a minor increase of 0.1 percentage points from the prior forecast [3]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024E is revised to RMB 8,616 million, down 2.85% from the previous estimate of RMB 8,868 million, with an adjusted net profit margin of 8.0% [3].