浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 目标价（港元） 56.0 潜在升幅/降幅 +6% 目前股价（港元） 52.8 52 周内股价区间（港元） 27.5-103.6 总市值（百万港元） 167,502 近 3 月日均成交额（百万港元） 441 SPDBI 目标价 ◆ 目前价 ◆市场预期区间 *数据截至 2024 年 10 月 28 日 资料来源：Bloomberg、浦银国际 药明康德 药明康德(603259.CH) 目标价（人民币） 62.0 潜在升幅/降幅 +16% 目前股价（人民币） 53.4 52 周内股价区间（人民币） 36.3-93.6 总市值（百万人民币） 153,659 近 3 月日均成交额(百万人民币) 2,869 （2359.HK/603259.CH） 公司研究 | 医药行业 药明康德（2359.HK/603259.CH）：3Q24 经 调整归母净利略高于预期，维持全年收入 利润指引 公司 3Q24 收入大致符合我们预期，经调整 Non-IFRS 归母净利润略 好于我们预期。公司维持全年收入利润指引不变，上调全年自由现 金流指引，主要系下调资本开支指引。上调港股/A 股目标价至 56 港元/人民 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of CNY 130.8, indicating a potential upside of 17% from the current price of CNY 111.8 [1][3][10]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance aligns with previous earnings forecasts, showing growth in both mobile and automotive sectors. Revenue, gross margin, and net profit all experienced year-on-year increases, with net profit growth significantly outpacing revenue growth, indicating a positive fundamental trend [1][6]. - The mobile CIS market share continues to rise, with expectations for sustained growth in 2024 supported by capacity expansion. The mobile CIS gross margin is projected to remain above 30% [1][6]. - The automotive CIS business benefits from the rapid increase in penetration of new energy vehicles and intelligent driving, with revenue growth expected to remain strong and gross margins stable at over 40% [1][6]. - Over the next 2-3 years, new product lines such as display drivers and automotive-grade analog products are anticipated to break even or become profitable, enhancing the company's overall profitability [1][6]. Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of CNY 6.82 billion, a 10% year-on-year increase and a 6% quarter-on-quarter increase, marking a historical quarterly high. The gross margin for Q3 was 30.4%, up 8.7 percentage points year-on-year [6][7]. - The operating profit surged by 131% year-on-year, while net profit reached CNY 1.01 billion, reflecting a 368% year-on-year increase [6][7]. - The report includes adjusted earnings forecasts for 2024 and 2025, with projected revenues of CNY 25.94 billion and CNY 29.47 billion respectively, reflecting growth rates of 23% and 14% [2][8]. Valuation - The report employs a DCF valuation method, assuming a risk-free rate of 2.2% and a growth rate of 30% for the company from 2029 to 2032, with a WACC of 15.1%. The calculated target price is CNY 130.8 [1][8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 27.90, indicating a potential upside of approximately 30% from the current price of RMB 21.46 [2][6]. Core Insights - The company's revenue in Q3 2024 experienced a slight decline of 1.5% year-on-year to RMB 92.5 million, primarily due to pressures in the domestic market. However, net profit saw a significant increase of 164% year-on-year to RMB 24.71 million, attributed to effective cost control measures [2][3]. - The company aims for a 30% year-on-year revenue growth in 2024, although the report adopts a more conservative forecast due to ongoing pressures in surgical volume growth amid industry anti-corruption measures [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue decreased by 1.5% to RMB 92.5 million, with the revenue composition being over 40% from three-dimensional ablation catheters, approximately 30% from mapping catheters, about 10% from devices, and around 15% from sheath products. New products accounted for 30% of revenue, up from 20% in the first half of 2024 [3]. - Gross margin fell by 4.3 percentage points to 58.1%, impacted by centralized procurement price reductions and the ramp-up phase of new products [3]. - For the first nine months of 2024, revenue, gross margin, and net profit increased by 23%, decreased by 6.8 percentage points, and increased by 262% respectively [3]. Regional Performance - Domestic revenue faced challenges due to anti-corruption measures affecting surgical volumes, with approximately 5,000 three-dimensional surgeries performed in Q3 2024. The company reported a surgical volume of over 3,000 cases by the end of September [3]. - In contrast, overseas revenue grew by over 20% year-on-year in Q3 2024, despite some revenue recognition delays to Q4 2024 [3]. Research and Development - The company is advancing its R&D pipeline, with several products nearing clinical approval, including self-developed PFA catheters and collaborative projects with Stereotaxis [3]. - The PFA product from a joint venture is expected to receive domestic approval in the first half of 2025 [3]. Financial Projections - The report projects revenues of RMB 412 million, RMB 546 million, and RMB 716 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 25.2%, 32.5%, and 31.1% [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to RMB 41.6, indicating a potential upside of 15% from the current price of RMB 36.2 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's net profit for the third quarter reached RMB 270 million, marking a turnaround from losses, aligning with management's expectations of improving fundamentals in the product integration and power semiconductor businesses [2]. - The semiconductor business is expected to see a significant recovery, with a revised profit growth forecast of 127% for 2025, driven by better-than-expected performance in the second quarter [2]. - The product integration segment is projected to achieve profitability in the fourth quarter of this year, contributing approximately RMB 130 million to profits by 2025 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 19.57 billion, a 29% increase year-on-year, and a 13% increase quarter-on-quarter [7]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 11.0%, down from 17.4% in Q3 2023, while the operating profit margin was 3.5% [7]. - The product integration business generated RMB 15.73 billion in revenue, a 46% increase year-on-year, but reported a net loss of RMB 357 million [7]. - The semiconductor segment, specifically Anshi Semiconductor, recorded revenue of RMB 3.83 billion with a gross margin of 40.5% [7]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 61.21 billion in 2023 to RMB 75.01 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% [4]. - The net profit is expected to increase significantly from RMB 1.18 billion in 2023 to RMB 2.61 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 127% [4]. - The target price corresponds to a 2025 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.8x, which is below the historical average, suggesting room for upward movement [2][4].

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 珀莱雅 （603605.CH） 公司研究 | 消费行业 珀莱雅（603605.CH）：3Q24 业绩符合预期， 淡季稳健增长，多措并举有望改善利润率 在化妆品销售的淡季，珀莱雅 3Q24 收入和归母净利润依然保持相对 快速的增长，分别增长 21.2%和 20.7%，基本符合预期。公司能够维持 收入的快速增长得益于公司主品牌以及子品牌的均衡增长。尽管面临 毛销差缩窄的压力，但公司已落实多种举措，推动利润率的环比改善。 我们根据业绩情况小幅下调珀莱雅 2024-2026E 盈利预测。由于化妆品 行业估值中枢的上移，我们上调目标价至人民币 115 元（23x 2025E PE）， 维持珀莱雅"买入"评级。 多品牌均衡发展助力收入增长：尽管三季度是化妆品销售的淡季，叠 加疲软的消费大环境，珀莱雅仍在 3Q24 录得 21.2%的收入同比增长。 根据我们的估算，珀莱雅以及彩棠两大品牌 3Q24 均录得 20%左右的 收入增长，洗护品牌 OR 的收入增长超过 40%。我们认为，在公司多品 牌策略下，主力品牌收入稳定增长作为公司的基本盘，以及第二梯队 品牌的品牌力逐步提升，都将助力公司收入 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Betaini (300957.CH) with a target price of CNY 55.5, reflecting a potential upside of 4.3% from the current price of CNY 53.2 [4]. Core Insights - Betaini's revenue for Q3 2024 grew by 14.0% year-on-year, primarily driven by the revenue from the acquired brands Za and Pomei under Yuejiang, contributing CNY 120 million. However, excluding Yuejiang's impact, the organic revenue growth was only 3.1% [1][2]. - The increase in marketing activities, new employee stock ownership plan expenses, and negative operating leverage led to a significant rise in selling and administrative expense ratios, resulting in the company recording a loss for the first time in a single quarter [1][2]. - The report highlights that the adjustment effects of the main brand, Winona, have yet to materialize, and the revenue structure changes have led to a decrease in gross margin [2]. Financial Summary - For 2024E, the projected revenue is CNY 6,327 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.6%. The net profit is expected to decline to CNY 658 million, a decrease of 13.0% compared to the previous year [3][9]. - The gross margin is projected to decrease to 71.2% in 2024E, down from 72.7% in 2023A, while the operating profit margin is expected to drop to 9.3% [3][7]. - The report indicates a significant increase in selling expense ratio to 60.4% in Q3 2024, up 12.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased marketing efforts and operational leverage [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an updated target price of HKD 3.07, representing a potential upside of 11.2% from the current price of HKD 2.76 [1][9]. Core Insights - Despite a year-on-year decline of 34.7% in net profit for 1HFY25, the company reported a 2.5% increase in operating cash flow, with a free cash flow to net profit ratio rising to 2.8x compared to 1.8x in 1HFY24, indicating strong operational capabilities and cash flow management [1]. - The management has provided a cautious full-year guidance for FY25, expecting a high single-digit decline in revenue and a net profit drop of 35%-45%, which is more severe than the decline observed in 1HFY25 [1][7]. - The company is facing significant short-term inventory and discount pressures, with management noting that retail discounts have deepened more than in the first half of the year due to ongoing challenges in foot traffic [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2023, the company reported revenue of RMB 27,073 million, which is expected to decline to RMB 26,653 million in FY2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7.9% [3][4]. - The net profit for FY2023 was RMB 1,837 million, projected to drop to RMB 1,380 million in FY2025, indicating a significant year-on-year decline of 38% [3][4]. - The operating profit margin is expected to decrease from 9.0% in FY2024 to 6.5% in FY2025, highlighting the pressure on profitability [4][6]. Operational Insights - The company has demonstrated strong operational capabilities, successfully managing to maintain stable expense ratios despite a significant drop in net profit, which has allowed for an increase in dividend payout ratios [1][7]. - Management emphasizes that the current guidance is based on conservative estimates, suggesting that actual performance may exceed these projections due to potential positive factors not included in the guidance [1][7]. Market Context - The report indicates that the overall industry demand remains uncertain, with increased competition in the high-end sportswear market posing additional challenges [1][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $60 for the US stock and HK$47 for the Hong Kong stock [1][3]. Core Insights - The initial efficacy and safety data for ZL-1310 (DLL3 ADC) in the 2L+ ES-SCLC indication are excellent, significantly boosting investor confidence in the company's R&D pipeline [1]. - ZL-1310 demonstrated a 74% overall response rate (ORR) in the global Phase 1 trial, with a 100% ORR in patients with brain metastases [1]. - The company plans to accelerate the development of ZL-1310 for 2L+ ES-SCLC and aims to communicate with the FDA regarding the accelerated approval pathway [1]. Financial Performance - The projected revenue for 2023 is $267 million, with a year-on-year growth of 24% [2][9]. - The company is expected to incur a net loss of $335 million in 2023, improving to a loss of $137 million by 2025 [2][9]. - The revenue is forecasted to grow significantly, reaching $995 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53.3% from 2023 to 2026 [2][9]. Market Expectations - The current stock price is $28.9, with a potential upside of 107% to the target price of $60 [3][5]. - The stock has a 52-week price range of $13.4 to $31.2, indicating volatility and potential for growth [3][5]. Clinical Data Comparison - ZL-1310's ORR of 74% is higher than that of competitors like YL201 (68% ORR) and ZG006 (67% ORR), showcasing its competitive edge in the market [1][8]. - The safety profile of ZL-1310 is superior, with lower rates of ≥3 grade treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs) compared to YL201 [1][8].

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Hold" rating for Tesla with a target price of $210.8, indicating a potential downside of 1% [1] - The current valuation is considered reasonable with a P/E ratio of 72.6x, higher than the average of 59.5x since 2022 [1] Core Views - Tesla's 3Q24 gross margin exceeded market expectations, reaching 19.8%, up 2 percentage points year-over-year and 1.9 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [1] - Automotive sales gross margin improved both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, while energy storage gross margin surged by over 6 percentage points [1] - Operating expenses decreased, leading to a 54% year-over-year and 69% quarter-over-quarter increase in operating profit [1] - Net income for 3Q24 was $2.17 billion, up 17% year-over-year and 47% quarter-over-year, surpassing market consensus [1] - Tesla expects 20%-30% growth in vehicle sales for the next year [1] - FSD version 13 is expected to improve intervention intervals by 5-6 times [1] - Megapack production reached 200 units per week, equivalent to 40GWh annually, with a second Shanghai factory expected to add 20GWh/year capacity in Q1 2025 [1] - Optimus, the next-generation humanoid robot, will feature 22 degrees of freedom, doubling its previous capability [1] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Tesla's 3Q24 revenue was $25.18 billion, up 8% year-over-year but down 1% quarter-over-quarter [1] - Automotive sales revenue in 3Q24 was $19.57 billion, up 2% year-over-year and 1% quarter-over-quarter [11] - Energy revenue surged 52% year-over-year to $2.38 billion, though it declined 21% quarter-over-quarter [11] - Service and other revenue grew 29% year-over-year to $2.79 billion, up 7% quarter-over-quarter [11] - Vehicle deliveries in 3Q24 reached 462,890 units, up 6% year-over-year and 4% quarter-over-quarter [11] - Average vehicle price decreased by 5% year-over-year and 3% quarter-over-quarter to $40,681 [11] Valuation - The target price of $210.8 is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation, implying a P/E of 94.9x for 2024 and 66.6x for 2025 [1] - Tesla's market capitalization stands at $682.54 billion, with a 52-week price range of $139-$271 [2] Industry and Competitive Positioning - Tesla maintains its position as a global leader in smart electric vehicles, with new models expected to accelerate growth in 2026 [1] - The company continues to invest in AI and autonomous driving, which are expected to support its valuation [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Li Ning (2331.HK) with a target price of HKD 15.94, reflecting a potential upside of 3.9% from the current price of HKD 15.3 [2][11]. Core Views - Li Ning's 3Q24 operational data slightly exceeded market expectations, but the company still significantly lags behind major domestic competitors. The management indicated increased short-term channel inventory pressure and highlighted substantial uncertainty regarding 4Q24 revenue performance [1]. - Despite improved earnings certainty for 2024, the lack of significant recovery in brand strength, fundamentals, and terminal sales trends suggests that investors should remain cautious about Li Ning's stock performance [1]. - The establishment of a joint venture with founder Li Ning and HongShan Venture aims to accelerate the brand's overseas expansion, although the current overseas business only accounts for about 2% of total revenue [1]. Summary by Sections 3Q24 Performance - Li Ning's overall channel revenue in 3Q24 declined in the mid-single digits year-on-year, which was slightly better than market expectations. Offline channel revenue fell in the high single digits, also better than expected [1]. - E-commerce revenue grew in the mid-single digits year-on-year, aligning with market expectations. The average selling price decreased in the mid-single digits, while sales volume remained stable [1]. 4Q24 Outlook - Management remains cautious about the outlook for 4Q24, citing that industry terminal demand has not shown significant improvement and that short-term inventory and discount pressures persist [1]. - The company aims to reduce the inventory turnover ratio to 4-5 months by year-end, with current inventory turnover at around 5 months [1]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: - 2024E: RMB 28,199 million (up 2.2% YoY) - 2025E: RMB 29,422 million (up 4.3% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 30,967 million (up 5.3% YoY) [3][4]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024E: RMB 3,005 million (down 5.7% YoY) - 2025E: RMB 3,297 million (up 9.7% YoY) - 2026E: RMB 3,570 million (up 8.3% YoY) [3][4]. Margins and Ratios - The gross margin is expected to expand by approximately 1 percentage point in 2024, despite a slight decline in the second half of 2024 due to increased discounts [1]. - The report indicates a projected PE ratio of 12.2x for 2024E, with a return on equity (ROE) of 12.0% [3][6]. Inventory and Discounts - Management has increased retail discounts in 3Q24 to manage inventory levels, with offline discounts deepening in the low single digits [1]. - The overall inventory turnover ratio remains manageable, with expectations to improve by year-end [1].