浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 珀莱雅 （603605.CH） 公司研究 | 消费行业 珀莱雅（603605.CH）：3Q24 业绩符合预期， 淡季稳健增长，多措并举有望改善利润率 在化妆品销售的淡季，珀莱雅 3Q24 收入和归母净利润依然保持相对 快速的增长，分别增长 21.2%和 20.7%，基本符合预期。公司能够维持 收入的快速增长得益于公司主品牌以及子品牌的均衡增长。尽管面临 毛销差缩窄的压力，但公司已落实多种举措，推动利润率的环比改善。 我们根据业绩情况小幅下调珀莱雅 2024-2026E 盈利预测。由于化妆品 行业估值中枢的上移，我们上调目标价至人民币 115 元（23x 2025E PE）， 维持珀莱雅"买入"评级。 多品牌均衡发展助力收入增长：尽管三季度是化妆品销售的淡季，叠 加疲软的消费大环境，珀莱雅仍在 3Q24 录得 21.2%的收入同比增长。 根据我们的估算，珀莱雅以及彩棠两大品牌 3Q24 均录得 20%左右的 收入增长，洗护品牌 OR 的收入增长超过 40%。我们认为，在公司多品 牌策略下，主力品牌收入稳定增长作为公司的基本盘，以及第二梯队 品牌的品牌力逐步提升，都将助力公司收入 ...

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 贝泰妮（300957.CH） 公司研究 | 消费行业 贝泰妮（300957.CH）：费用投放增加令 单季首次转亏，多元矩阵仍在探索中 贝泰妮 3Q24 收入同比录得增长 14.0%，主要仍由 2023 年收购的悦江 旗下品牌 Za 和泊美收入人民币 1.2 亿元带动。如剔除悦江的影响，可 比口径仅同比增长 3.1%，薇诺娜品牌的调整效果尚未展现。同时，3Q24 营销活动的增加、期内新增员工持股计划费用支出以及负面经营杠杆， 使销售费用率和管理费用率分别大幅同比上升 12.7ppt 以及 4.9ppt，令 公司首次单季录得亏损。综上，我们下调贝泰妮 2024-2026E 盈利预测， 但考虑到化妆品行业估值中枢上移，以及"双 11"期间较好的业绩展 望，我们上调目标价至人民币 55.5 元，维持贝泰妮"持有"评级。 主品牌调整效果尚未展现：3Q24 贝泰妮收入同比增长 14%，但主要 是由 2023 年 10 月并表悦江投资带来的增量收入增长。如果剔除悦 江，内生营收为 10.96 亿元，仅同比增长 3.1%。我们认为，这是由于 贝泰妮长久以来对于薇诺娜品牌的高度依赖，致使当薇诺 ...

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $60 for the US stock and HK$47 for the Hong Kong stock [1][3]. Core Insights - The initial efficacy and safety data for ZL-1310 (DLL3 ADC) in the 2L+ ES-SCLC indication are excellent, significantly boosting investor confidence in the company's R&D pipeline [1]. - ZL-1310 demonstrated a 74% overall response rate (ORR) in the global Phase 1 trial, with a 100% ORR in patients with brain metastases [1]. - The company plans to accelerate the development of ZL-1310 for 2L+ ES-SCLC and aims to communicate with the FDA regarding the accelerated approval pathway [1]. Financial Performance - The projected revenue for 2023 is $267 million, with a year-on-year growth of 24% [2][9]. - The company is expected to incur a net loss of $335 million in 2023, improving to a loss of $137 million by 2025 [2][9]. - The revenue is forecasted to grow significantly, reaching $995 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53.3% from 2023 to 2026 [2][9]. Market Expectations - The current stock price is $28.9, with a potential upside of 107% to the target price of $60 [3][5]. - The stock has a 52-week price range of $13.4 to $31.2, indicating volatility and potential for growth [3][5]. Clinical Data Comparison - ZL-1310's ORR of 74% is higher than that of competitors like YL201 (68% ORR) and ZG006 (67% ORR), showcasing its competitive edge in the market [1][8]. - The safety profile of ZL-1310 is superior, with lower rates of ≥3 grade treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs) compared to YL201 [1][8].

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Hold" rating for Tesla with a target price of $210.8, indicating a potential downside of 1% [1] - The current valuation is considered reasonable with a P/E ratio of 72.6x, higher than the average of 59.5x since 2022 [1] Core Views - Tesla's 3Q24 gross margin exceeded market expectations, reaching 19.8%, up 2 percentage points year-over-year and 1.9 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [1] - Automotive sales gross margin improved both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, while energy storage gross margin surged by over 6 percentage points [1] - Operating expenses decreased, leading to a 54% year-over-year and 69% quarter-over-quarter increase in operating profit [1] - Net income for 3Q24 was $2.17 billion, up 17% year-over-year and 47% quarter-over-year, surpassing market consensus [1] - Tesla expects 20%-30% growth in vehicle sales for the next year [1] - FSD version 13 is expected to improve intervention intervals by 5-6 times [1] - Megapack production reached 200 units per week, equivalent to 40GWh annually, with a second Shanghai factory expected to add 20GWh/year capacity in Q1 2025 [1] - Optimus, the next-generation humanoid robot, will feature 22 degrees of freedom, doubling its previous capability [1] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Tesla's 3Q24 revenue was $25.18 billion, up 8% year-over-year but down 1% quarter-over-quarter [1] - Automotive sales revenue in 3Q24 was $19.57 billion, up 2% year-over-year and 1% quarter-over-quarter [11] - Energy revenue surged 52% year-over-year to $2.38 billion, though it declined 21% quarter-over-quarter [11] - Service and other revenue grew 29% year-over-year to $2.79 billion, up 7% quarter-over-quarter [11] - Vehicle deliveries in 3Q24 reached 462,890 units, up 6% year-over-year and 4% quarter-over-quarter [11] - Average vehicle price decreased by 5% year-over-year and 3% quarter-over-quarter to $40,681 [11] Valuation - The target price of $210.8 is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation, implying a P/E of 94.9x for 2024 and 66.6x for 2025 [1] - Tesla's market capitalization stands at $682.54 billion, with a 52-week price range of $139-$271 [2] Industry and Competitive Positioning - Tesla maintains its position as a global leader in smart electric vehicles, with new models expected to accelerate growth in 2026 [1] - The company continues to invest in AI and autonomous driving, which are expected to support its valuation [1]

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 李宁 10 20 30 40 （2331.HK） 公司研究 | 消费行业 李宁（2331.HK）：3Q24 运营数据略好于 市场预期，但 4Q24 不确定性依然较大 转机未至，维持"持有"评级：尽管李宁 3Q24 流水表现略好于市场预 期，但依然大幅落后于主要的国产竞争对手（图表 3）。同时，管理层在 电话会上表示公司短期渠道库存压力有所加大，并强调 4Q24 的收入表 现有较大的不确定性。我们认为尽管李宁 2024 年业绩确定性有所增强， 但在公司品牌力、基本面与终端销售趋势尚未出现显著恢复迹象的情况 下，投资者应对李宁股价表现保持谨慎，不宜轻易抄底。我们维持盈利 预测不变，但将估值滚动至 2025 年，从而小幅上调李宁目标价至 15.94 港元（基于 12x 2025E P/E）。维持李宁"持有"评级。 3Q24 流水表现略好于预期：李宁 3Q24 全渠道整体流水同比下滑中单 位数，略好于市场预期的中单位数至高单位数的下滑。其中，线下渠道 流水同比下滑高单位数，好于市场预期的低双下滑。线下直营门店 3Q24 流水同比下降中单位数，略好于加盟商线下门店流水表现（高单位数下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 78.9, indicating a potential upside of 24.3% from the current price of HKD 63.5 [4][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant revenue growth of 120%-125% year-on-year in Q3 2024, surpassing market expectations, and demonstrating strong operational capabilities in IP management and global expansion potential [2][3]. - The report highlights a robust performance in the Chinese market, with revenue growth of 55%-60% in Q3 2024, compared to 32% in the first half of the year, showcasing the company's resilience in a challenging economic environment [2][7]. - Internationally, the company reported an impressive 440%-445% revenue growth in Q3 2024, further validating its global expansion strategy and the effectiveness of its IP monetization efforts [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been revised upwards by 20%-31%, with net profit estimates increased by 24%-36% [2][8]. - The company is expected to generate revenues of RMB 12,395 million in 2024, RMB 17,733 million in 2025, and RMB 22,156 million in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 96.7%, 43.1%, and 24.9% respectively [3][5]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 2,599 million, with a significant year-on-year increase of 140.1% [3][5]. Market Position and Valuation - The current valuation stands at 18.8 times the estimated P/E for 2025, with a PEG ratio of approximately 0.3, indicating that the stock remains attractive compared to other consumer stocks in China [2][3]. - The company’s strong IP incubation capabilities and optimistic outlook for international markets contribute to a strong long-term growth trajectory [2][3].

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 台积电 （2330. T T/TSM.US） 公司研究 | 科技行业 台积电（2330.TT/TSM.US）：三季度毛 利率超市场预期，AI 强劲需求将带动 四季度毛利率提升 上调台积电 2024 年、2025 年盈利预测，并上调台积电（2330.TT）目 标价至 1,273.5 新台币，潜在升幅 17%，上调台积电（TSM.US）目标 价至 228.8 美元，潜在升幅 13%，均维持"买入"评级。 重申台积电的"买入"评级：台积电，作为全球晶圆龙头，充分享受 本轮 AI 浪潮中供应端算力的增量红利。而且，得益于先进制程的领 先地位，台积电几乎覆盖了跟 AI 相关的全部需求。我们看到公司今 年 AI 相关产品需求持续旺盛。在本次三季度业绩会上，台积电再次 上调全年收入增速指引至接近 30%，上调全年资本开支至略高于 320 亿美元。这也表明台积电仍处在半导体周期上行阶段。我们预计公司 2024 年、2025 年盈利将同比增长 36%、33%，对应 2024 年、2025 年 市盈率为 28.6x、21.5x，对应 EV/EBITDA 为 16.5x、13.2x。我们重申 对台 ...

浦银国际研究 浦银国际 策略月报 月度市场策略： 如何把握盘整期的结构性机会？ 策略月报 | 投资策略 月度市场策略：如何把握盘整期 的结构性机会？ 近期市场交易逻辑已发生变化。9 月 24 日，国新办发布会宣布了一系 列货币宽松政策，以及房地产和资本市场支持政策，整体规模大超市 场预期。两天后罕见地在九月召开的政治局经济会议进一步确认政策 宽松基调，政策转向使得市场信心大受鼓舞，刺激中国股票市场大幅 反弹。然而，10 月 9 日至今，市场静待更多政策刺激出台，乐观市场 情绪有所消化，股指重回震荡态势。在市场情绪尚未扭转前，如果经 济数据或企业盈利出现不及预期的情况，大多数情况下股指会承压。 在市场情绪扭转后，若基本面不及预期，超预期政策出台的可能性或 会加大，反而会提升市场情绪，驱动股指反弹。 复盘日股 1990 年至 2000 年走势。为了更好地分析本轮行情接下来可 能的演绎走向，我们用跨国别与跨市场横向比较的方法来复盘 1990 年至2000年日股所经历的四轮牛市以及分析背后驱动市场的因素（包 括 GDP、通胀、利率、政策和汇率等因素）。我们发现日股在 1992-1993 年的走势尤其值得参考。在该轮牛 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lens Technology (300433.CH) with a target price of RMB 26.6, representing a potential upside of 18.1% [1][9]. Core Views - Lens Technology's Q3 performance exceeded both the report's and market expectations, particularly in gross margin. The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth in the next two years, driven by various factors including the momentum from Apple iPhone, expansion in Android smartphone assembly, new AI PC business, and growth in automotive business [1][9]. - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to R&D and business expansion while maintaining a relatively restrained capital expenditure in the short term, which is favorable for profit growth [1][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, Lens Technology reported revenue of RMB 17.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30%, marking five consecutive quarters of double-digit year-on-year growth [1][7]. - The gross margin reached 21.4%, up 1.0 percentage points year-on-year and 5.0 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, surpassing market expectations [1][7]. - Operating profit grew significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 56% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 210%, resulting in a net profit of RMB 1.51 billion, up 38% year-on-year and 173% quarter-on-quarter [1][7]. Earnings Forecast - The report projects Lens Technology's revenue to reach RMB 68.1 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25% and a net profit of RMB 4.23 billion, reflecting a 40% increase [3][8]. - For 2025, revenue is expected to be RMB 79.9 billion, with a net profit of RMB 5.03 billion, indicating a 19% growth [3][8]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning price-to-earnings ratios of 33.0x for smartphones and computers, 30.0x for new energy vehicles, and 25.0x for smart wearables, leading to the target price of RMB 26.6 [9][10].