浦银国际研究 主题研究 | 宏观经济 浦银国际 主题研究 2024 年中期宏观经济展望 2024 年中期宏观经济展望：平波 缓进，渐入佳境 中国：维持全年 4.9%的经济增速预测，预计下半年内需将在政策支持 下改善。在此前谈及的对中国经济的几点担忧中，我们对消费韧性和基 建投资的担忧有所缓解。然而我们对房地产下行周期和通胀低迷的担忧 并没有显著好转。我们相信政策支持仍需继续发力以稳固经济复苏。财 政政策的重点或落在"两会"制定政策的执行上，稳投资、促消费以及 化解地方政府债务风险三线并进。货币政策或谨慎宽松，预计年内还有 一次降准，降息可能性仍低。政府如何帮助房企去库存将是扭转房地产 下行周期的关键因素。我们维持 4.9%的全年经济增速预测。然而由于慢 于预期的通胀复苏道路，名义 GDP 增速预测下调至 5%。从结构上看，下 半年内需将有所改善，净出口对经济的贡献或减弱。预计更为均衡的经 济复苏也有利于人民币兑美元汇率在中期小幅升值，年底升至 7.1。不过 还需警惕美国大选前后中美关系摩擦对汇率的负面影响。 美国: 下半年预计经济动能显著转弱，触发三季度降息。今年以来强劲 的美国经济表现阻碍了通胀的进一步下行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 康诺亚 (2162.HK) with a target price of 58 HKD [2][3]. Core Insights - Recent data for CM310 and CMG901 aligns with expectations, showing stable and positive trends. CM310 demonstrates superior efficacy compared to Dupixent in treating moderate to severe atopic dermatitis, with a 52-week EASI-75 response rate of 92.5% and a low rate of anti-drug antibodies [2]. - CMG901 shows promising results in the treatment of 2L+ gastric cancer, with an overall objective response rate (ORR) of 35% and a disease control rate (DCR) of 70%, indicating its potential as a best-in-class therapy [2]. - Key upcoming catalysts for 2024 include potential approvals for CM310 in adult atopic dermatitis and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps, as well as important data readouts for other candidates [2]. Summary by Sections CM310 Efficacy Data - CM310 shows a 52-week EASI-75 response rate of 92.5% and an EASI-90 response rate of 77.1%, outperforming Dupixent [2]. - Serious adverse events (SAE) were reported at 5.1%, with no new safety signals identified compared to previous data [2]. CMG901 Update - The updated 1b phase data for CMG901 in gastric cancer shows an ORR of 35% and a DCR of 70%, with the 2.2 mg/kg dose group achieving an ORR of 48% [2]. - The median progression-free survival (mPFS) is reported at 4.8 months, and median overall survival (mOS) is 11.8 months [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 estimate 1,175 million RMB, with a significant increase from 2023 [8]. - The report anticipates a net loss of 803 million RMB for 2024, reflecting ongoing investment in R&D [8]. Market Performance - The current stock price is 31.5 HKD, with a potential upside of 84% to the target price of 58 HKD [4]. - The stock has traded within a 52-week range of 26.6 to 64.8 HKD, indicating volatility [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 63, indicating a potential upside of 43% from the current price of HKD 44 [4][5]. Core Insights - The interim analysis of the AK112 head-to-head trial against Keytruda (K drug) for the treatment of 1L PD-L1+ NSCLC has shown positive results, aligning with expectations and driving a significant rebound in the company's stock price [2][3]. - The specific interim analysis data from the HARMONi-2 trial is expected to be presented at the WCLC 2024 conference in September, which could further influence market sentiment [3]. - The success of the HARMONi-2 trial is anticipated to accelerate the company's ongoing trials and open up new potential combination therapies, although the commercial potential in the 1L NSCLC market remains to be clarified by the results of the HARMONi-3 trial [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow significantly from RMB 838 million in 2022 to RMB 6,200 million by 2026, with a notable increase of 440.3% in 2023 [7][8]. - The company is expected to return to profitability with a net profit of RMB 1,501 million by 2026, following a loss of RMB 1,168 million in 2022 [7][8]. - The price-to-sales (PS) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 35.1 in 2022 to 5.0 by 2026, indicating improved valuation metrics as the company scales [7][8].

年年 科技行业 | 行业追踪 科技行业调研：关注新能源车行业价格 沈岱 浦 竞争与产业链降价，智能手机行业全年 首席科技分析师 银 tony_shen@spdbi.com 国 销量预期保持稳定 (852) 2808 6435 际 黄佳琦 在一季报之后，我们密集调研了多家大科技行业的公司，主要涉 科技分析师 及新能源车和智能手机的产业链厂商。 sia_huang@spdbi.com (852) 2809 0355 在 4、5 月份，从行业整体看，新能源车和智能手机供应链行业 马智焱 行 股价没有太大起伏。然而，具体公司股价波动具有明显的差异。 科技分析师 业 其中，在 5 月，比亚迪电子（285.HK）和华虹半导体（1347.HK） ivy_ma@spdbi.com 追 的股价涨幅明显，理想汽车（LI.US/2015.HK）股价承受较大压力。 (852) 2809 0300 踪 在新能源车板块中，今年中国新能源车行业销量从 1-2 月春节期 2024年5月30日 间的低位，快速恢复至3 月的 83 万辆高位后，4-5 月销量都保持 在较高水位，趋势与去年的情况类似。目前，乘联会口径下 4 月 中国新能源乘用车渗 ...

浦银国际 主题研究 美国: 下半年预计经济动能显著转弱，触发三季度降息。今年以来强劲 的美国经济表现阻碍了通胀的进一步下行和美联储降息的信心。然而 我们认为看似强劲的内需或不能持续，经济增速或随消费和投资走弱 而在下半年下行，但并不至于陷入衰退。我们相信核心通胀会在波动中 温和向下，尽管二次通胀的风险仍存。基于以上判断，我们维持三季度 开始降息的基本观点，9 月开始降息的可能性高于 7 月。基准情况下下 半年有 50 个基点的降息。但如果通胀、劳动力市场和实体经济数据继 续全面维持强劲，那么我们也不能排除降息会延后至四季度，甚至全年 没有降息的可能性。美元指数和 10 年期国债收益率短期内或在随降息 预期波动的同时维持相对高的水平，而后在降息靴子落地后小幅下行。 日本：预计春斗薪资协商涨幅将自夏天起逐渐体现在工资上，助力服务 业 CPI 恢复和经济动能改善，并推动 10 月升息。在通缩困扰了日本经 济近 30 年之后，超预期的春斗薪资协商涨幅为日本维持 2%左右的通胀 率提供了一个重要契机。我们相信随着春斗薪资协商涨幅自夏天起逐渐 体现在工资上，下半年日本经济增速和服务业 CPI 有望回升，这将给予 日本央行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Alibaba Health with a target price of HK$4.0, indicating an expected upside of approximately 18% from the current price of HK$3.38 [3][5]. Core Insights - Alibaba Health's FY24 revenue is projected to grow by 1% year-on-year to RMB 27.03 billion, while adjusted net profit is expected to increase by 91% to RMB 1.44 billion, driven by improved fulfillment cost efficiency and a higher proportion of non-epidemic product sales [2][4]. - For FY25, the company anticipates revenue growth of at least 15% and an increase in net profit margin by approximately 5 percentage points, leading to a net profit growth of around 76% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY24 revenue is expected to be RMB 27.03 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 1%, impacted by a high base from epidemic-related product sales in FY23 [2][4]. - Adjusted net profit for FY24 is projected at RMB 1.44 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 91% due to improved gross margins and reduced fulfillment costs [2][4]. - Revenue breakdown for FY24 includes: - Self-operated business: RMB 23.74 billion, a 0.6% increase year-on-year, with non-epidemic product sales growing over 40% [2]. - E-commerce platform: RMB 2.33 billion, a 4% increase, benefiting from GMV growth and new acquisitions [2]. - Healthcare and digitalization: RMB 960 million, a 3% increase, despite optimization efforts in lower-margin businesses [2]. Future Outlook - The company expects continued optimization of fulfillment costs in FY25, with revenue growth no longer hindered by high base effects from epidemic-related sales [2][4]. - Management guidance for FY25 includes revenue growth of at least 15% and an increase in net profit margin to approximately 5%, translating to a net profit growth of at least 76% [2][4]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a target price of HK$4.0 based on a price-to-sales ratio of 1.9x for FY25E, which is approximately 0.5 standard deviations below the average of the past three years [3][5]. - The company’s market capitalization is reported at HK$49.4 billion, with an average trading volume of HK$142 million over the past three months [5].

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with an adjusted target price of $16.8 USD / 131 HKD [3][6][7] Core Views - Revenue in 1Q24 reached RMB 5.67 billion, a 12% YoY increase, surpassing market expectations by 1% [3] - Adjusted net loss narrowed to RMB 440 million, better than the market expectation of RMB 500 million, with a 57% YoY improvement [3] - Adjusted loss margin improved by 12.5 percentage points YoY to 7.8% [3] - Daily active users (DAU) grew 9.3% YoY to 100 million, while monthly active users (MAU) reached 342 million, an 8% YoY increase [3] - Advertising revenue grew 31% YoY in 1Q24, with expectations of maintaining a high growth rate of 27% YoY in 2Q24 [3] - Game revenue declined 13% YoY due to the decline of older games, but is expected to recover with the launch of the new game "Three Kingdoms: Strategic World" on June 13 [3] - Gross margin improved to 28.3% in 1Q24, up 6.5 percentage points YoY and 2.2 percentage points QoQ, driven by the optimization of revenue structure [3] - The company aims to achieve adjusted operating profit breakeven in 3Q24 [3] Financial Forecasts - 2024E revenue is forecasted at RMB 24.94 billion, with 2025E revenue expected to reach RMB 27.35 billion [3][4] - Adjusted net loss for 2024E is projected at RMB 395 million, turning to a profit of RMB 984 million in 2025E [4] - Target P/S ratio for 2024E is 2.0x, with a slight decline to 1.8x in 2025E [4] User Metrics and Advertising - Average daily usage time reached a record high of 105 minutes in 1Q24 [3] - Advertising growth is supported by increased traffic, expanded ad inventory, and improved e-commerce ecosystem [3] Game Business Outlook - Game revenue is expected to return to positive growth in 2Q24 with the launch of the new game "Three Kingdoms: Strategic World" [3] Valuation and Target Price - The target price is based on a 2024E P/S ratio of 2.0x, reflecting confidence in the company's steady traffic growth and improving advertising ecosystem [3][6][7] Industry Context - The report covers the internet industry, with a focus on companies like Bilibili, Tencent, and NetEase, highlighting their performance in gaming and advertising sectors [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 173 / USD 111, reflecting a potential upside of 22% from the current price of HKD 141.5 / USD 94.74 [3][4][12] Core Insights - The company's Q1 2024 revenue reached RMB 26.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, slightly above market expectations. The adjusted net profit was RMB 8.5 billion, up 31.7% year-on-year, also exceeding market forecasts [3][6] - The gaming segment continues to show strong growth, with game revenue at RMB 20.4 billion, a 10% increase year-on-year, driven by popular titles such as "逆水寒" and "蛋仔派对" [3][6] - The company is set to launch several new games in Q3, which are expected to act as catalysts for growth despite recent adjustments to existing games [3][6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E have been slightly adjusted downwards by 1% to RMB 111.6 billion, with adjusted net profit forecasted at RMB 33.6 billion [3][6] - The company’s gross margin improved to 63.4%, up 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net margin increased to 31.7%, up 1.5 percentage points [3][6] - The report outlines a steady growth trajectory with revenue expected to reach RMB 130.1 billion by FY26E, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.5% [6][10]

浦银国际研究 行业追踪 | 医药行业 ASCO 2024：重点公司简要点评（一） 阳景 浦 首席医药分析师 5 月 23日下午（美国东部时间），一年一度的美国肿瘤年会（ASCO）披 Jing_yang@spdbi.com 银 露了此次大会投稿接收的摘要内容。对于备受关注的康方生物（9926.HK， (852) 2808 6434 国 际 “买入”评级）AK112 三期 HARMONi-A 数据（EGFR 突变 NSCLC），我 们认为 ORR和 mPFS数字略低于预期，不过首次披露的 PFS获益 HR好 胡泽宇 CFA 于已上市药物（尤其是在 T790M突变细分人群），若后续 OS数据优秀， 医药分析师 公司股价有望迎来反弹。此外，科伦博泰（未覆盖）SKB264 三期 3L+ ryan_hu@spdbi.com TNBC 数据优异，有同类最佳的潜力；二期 1L NSCLC 数据好于国外同类 (852) 2808 6446 竞争对手。 2024年5月24日  康方生物（9926.HK；评级“买入”）AK112三期EGFR突变 NSCLC适 行 应症 mPFS和 ORR数字略低于预期，但首次披露的 PFS获益 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Vipshop (VIPS US) with an adjusted target price of $18 [1][2] Core Views - Vipshop's Q1 2024 revenue was RMB 27 6 billion flat YoY slightly below market expectations by 0 9% but within the guidance range of RMB 27 5-28 9 billion [1] - Q1 2024 GMV grew 8 0% YoY to RMB 52 4 billion while order volume declined 3 2% to 180 million and active buyers decreased 1 4% to 43 1 million [1] - The apparel category showed strong performance with double-digit GMV growth and active SVIP members increased 11% YoY contributing 45% of online consumption [1] - Gross margin remained high at 23 7% up 2 3pp YoY and flat QoQ while adjusted net profit grew 24 8% YoY to RMB 2 58 billion exceeding market expectations by 15 1% [1] - Adjusted net margin reached a historical high of 9 3% up 1 8pp YoY and 0 1pp QoQ [1] - The company provided a cautious Q2 2024 revenue guidance of RMB 26 5-27 9 billion representing a YoY decline of 5% to 0% due to seasonal demand slowdown and intensified competition [1] - Vipshop plans to complete the remaining $500 million share repurchase within the year and allocate over 75% of its 2024 adjusted net profit for buybacks or dividends [1] - Full-year 2024 revenue is expected to remain flat with adjusted net margin projected to improve to 8 6% driven by operational efficiency [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to be RMB 112 696 billion in FY24E slightly down from RMB 112 856 billion in FY23 [2] - Operating profit is expected to increase to RMB 26 263 billion in FY24E from RMB 25 721 billion in FY23 [2] - Adjusted net profit is projected to grow to RMB 9 661 billion in FY24E from RMB 9 510 billion in FY23 [2] - The target PE ratio for FY24E is 7 5x [2] Market Data - The current stock price is $16 52 with a 52-week range of $13 8-20 19 [3] - The target price of $18 implies a potential upside of 9% [3] - The company has a market capitalization of $8 959 billion and a 3-month average daily trading volume of $74 2 million [3]