华福证券 投资要点： 华福证券 盈利预测与投资建议 考虑到公司 Q2 业绩增速承压，我们下调对公司 2024-2026 年收入的预 期为 34.86/43.28/54.83 亿元（前值 24-25 年的预期为 42.19/57.14 亿元），下 调归母净利润为 22.67/28.26/35.71 亿元（前值 24-25 年的预期为 27.03/36.68 亿元），对应 PE 为 18.5/15/12 倍，维持"买入"评级。 证 券 研 究 报 告 风险提示 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 财务数据和估值 | 2022A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 1,939 | 3,486 | 4,328 | 5,483 | | 增长率 | 34% | 21% | 24% | 27% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,264 | 2,267 | 2,826 | 3,571 | | 增长率 | 32% | 22% | 25% ...

华福证券 原材料成本上涨风险，新产品推广不顺风险，食品安全问题等 香飘飘（603711.SH） 收入端略微承压，渠道调整完毕亟待启航 事件：香飘飘发布 2024 年上半年报告，公司 24H1 实现营业收入 11.79 亿 元，同比+0.75%，实现归属于母公司股东的净利润-0.30 亿元，同比+33.02%， 实现扣非归母净利润-0.43 亿元，同比+46.23%。根据中报，公司 24Q2 单 季度实现营收 4.54 亿元，同比-7.54%，归母净利润-0.55 亿元，同比-9.67%， 扣非归母净利润-0.63 万元，同比+14.11% 冲泡业务承压，饮料业务维持稳健 1） 24H1，公司实现冲泡业务收入 6.14 亿元，同比-2.13%；实现 即饮业务收入 5.47 亿元，同比+3.83%。公司上半年积极推动冲泡业务 健康化年轻化发展，并且对即饮产品定位重新梳理，Meco 如鲜果茶产 品以"杯装"定位为"茶饮店之外的第二选择"，新品"夏杏金萱" 亦市场反馈良好；兰芳园冻柠茶当前处于"0-1"的发展阶段，主打"健 康化"迎合消费的趋势，公司未来即饮业务成长性仍可期待。 2） 24Q2 单季度来看，公司实现冲 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark index within the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 139.4 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.94 billion yuan, up 12.7% [1]. - The commercial segment showed steady growth, with Q2 revenue reaching 63.5 billion yuan, a 6.7% increase, and a notable performance in the CSO business, which saw a revenue surge of 217% [2]. - The industrial segment faced revenue pressure, with Q2 income down 16.1% to 5.79 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in a subsidiary's performance, yet profitability improved with a net profit of 640 million yuan, up 2.9% [3]. Financial Analysis - The company achieved a gross margin of 11.75% and a net margin of 2.5% in Q2, with operational efficiency indicators showing an increase in accounts receivable turnover days to 99.3 days, while inventory turnover days decreased to 52.5 days [4]. - The forecast for revenue from 2024 to 2026 is projected at 289.8 billion yuan, 320.5 billion yuan, and 351.3 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.24 billion yuan, 5.84 billion yuan, and 6.54 billion yuan, indicating strong growth potential [5][14].

华福证券 及预期，外贸摩擦加剧，汇率大幅波动，原料价格大幅波动。 and Tax 2017 佩蒂股份（300673.SZ） 24H1 业绩点评：海外业务明显修复，盈利能力 持续提振 事件：2024 年 8 月 26 日公司发布 2024 年半年度报告。2024H1 公司 实现营业总收入 8.46 亿元，同比+71.64%，归母净利润 0.98 亿元，去年同 期亏损 0.43 亿元，扣非归母净利润 0.96 亿元，去年同期亏损 0.44 亿元。 单季度来看，24Q2 实现营业总收入 4.61 亿元，同比+38.06%，归母净利润 0.56 亿元，去年同期亏损 0.05 亿元，扣非归母净利润 0.56 亿元，去年同期 亏损 0.05 亿元。 国外代工修复明显，爵宴引领内销快增。国外：公司持续加深现有核 心客户并积极拓展新客户，积极把握客户从去库存到补库存的机遇，东南 亚工厂的产能利用率和经营效率均有明显提升，24H1 公司境外实现营收 6.9 亿元，同比+88%；国内：自主品牌持续获效，公司在国内市场实施多 品牌策略，聚焦爵宴、好适嘉等重点品牌，618 期间公司旗下高端宠物食 品品牌爵宴全网成交总额超 2500 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's 24H1 performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong revenue growth and improved profitability [2] - Revenue reached a record high of 1.531 billion yuan in 24H1, a year-on-year increase of 68%, with Q2 revenue at 878 million yuan, up 67% YoY and 34% QoQ [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company surged to 148 million yuan in 24H1, a YoY increase of 199.76%, with Q2 net profit at 120 million yuan, up 140% YoY and 335% QoQ [2] - Gross margin stabilized at 33.19% in 24H1, while net margin improved to 9.64%, up 3.96 percentage points QoQ [2] - The company is actively expanding into innovative fields such as AR glasses, with significant investments in R&D for new products like the BES2800 chip [4] Industry Overview - The domestic wearable market experienced rapid growth in 24H1, with domestic recovery significantly stronger than the global market [3] - Global wearable device shipments reached 110 million units in 24Q1, up 8.8% YoY, while domestic shipments were 33.67 million units, up 36.2% YoY [4] - Domestic smartwatch shipments in 24Q1 were 9.1 million units, up 54.1% YoY, with adult smartwatches accounting for 5.05 million units, up 62.8% YoY [4] - The domestic smart band market saw shipments of 3.7 million units in 24Q1, up 29.6% YoY, while the open-ear headphone market grew rapidly, with shipments of 11.84 million units in 24H1, up 303.6% YoY [4] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow from 2.176 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.1 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 23% [8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 124 million yuan in 2023 to 790 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 40% [8] - EPS is projected to rise from 1.03 yuan in 2023 to 6.58 yuan in 2026 [8] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decline from 148.1x in 2023 to 23.2x in 2026, reflecting strong earnings growth [8] Product and Technology Development - The company has launched new products such as the BES2700iBP and BES2700iMP chips, which have achieved full coverage in smartwatches, sports watches, and bands [2] - The BES2800 chip, expected to ramp up in 24H2, is being integrated into multiple customer projects, including headphones, smartwatches, and smart glasses [4] - The company is investing in R&D for AR glasses, with a total planned investment of 150 million yuan, focusing on low-power display technology, image sensing, and wireless transmission [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [12]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 254 million yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 42 million yuan, a decrease of 16.6% [1]. - The revenue for the second quarter of 2024 was 143 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.46%, but the net profit decreased by 16.2% to 24 million yuan [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in the hydrogen energy sector and the expansion of small power product channels, with projected revenues of 670 million yuan, 900 million yuan, and 1.23 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The testing power segment generated 199 million yuan in revenue, up 20.3% year-on-year, primarily driven by demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [1]. - The hydrogen energy segment saw a revenue increase of 18.2% to 46 million yuan, supported by the launch of a series of electrolyzer testing systems [1]. - The power semiconductor segment experienced a significant decline in revenue, down 48.3% to 8 million yuan, due to intensified competition and inventory destocking [1]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 50.4%, down 4.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 16.2%, down 6.3 percentage points [1]. Competitive Advantage - The company is focusing on horizontal expansion and vertical integration to build a platform-based technological barrier, with plans to enter semiconductor equipment, automotive electronics, and medical fields [1]. - The introduction of new product lines, such as the A2000 series and G6000 series, is aimed at broadening customer coverage and enhancing testing capabilities [1]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 120 million yuan, 160 million yuan, and 220 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17.0, 12.8, and 9.5 [2].

华福证券 机械设备 2024 年 08 月 27 日 机械设备 中国工程机械市场指数即 CMI 为 95.16，CME 预测 8 月挖机出口同比+4% 投资要点： 2024 年 8 月份中国工程机械市场指数即 CMI 为 95.16，同比增速 提高 2.69 个百分点，环比降幅收窄 4.32 个百分点，表明国内大多数市 场延续 7 月复苏态势，行业呈现不同程度的同比改善，但终端一线市 场的新机销售订单量要微弱于上月。其中，针对制造商群体的库存指 数比上期降低了 0.03 个百分点，生产指数同比提高 8.15%；针对代理 商群体的新订单指数同比提高 7.28%，环比提高 5.41%，渠道库存指数 比上期降低 5.10 个百分点；针对市场一线的用户价格指数同比降低 12.62%。 国内市场筑底回升，出口市场逐步修复。 下游地产、基建投资不及预期、原材料等价格波动风险、国际贸 易风险、人民币汇率波动风险。 强于大市（维持评级） CME 观测：8 月挖掘机国内销量 6600 台左右，同比增长 17%。 CME 预估 2024 年 8 月挖掘机（含出口）销量 14300 台左右，同比增 长 9%左右。市场正在加速回暖： ...

行业研究报告|行业深度报告 医药生物 行业评级 强于大市（维持评级） 2024年8月26日 医药新常态，路在何方？ ——调存量、寻增量、抓变量 证券分析师： 盛丽华 执业证书编号：S0210523020001 联系人： 何展聪、杨风雨 华福证券 华福证券 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 核心观点及投资建议 华福证券 华福证券 ➢ 2020年8月至今医药板块已连续调整4年，时间和幅度远超过往，其背后行业基本面和政策面出现了哪些变化？未来中长期的医药投资与过往有哪些区别 ？我们试图复盘医药20年，结合国内人口结构变化与"三医联动"的医改政策，提出基于人口（需求）、医保（支付）、医药（供给）和医疗（结构）的 行业分析框架。我们判断行业至暗时刻已过，但投资范式和过往的赛道（板块）投资将存显著差异，展望中长期，"调存量、寻增量、抓变量"或成医药 投资关键词，本篇报告为我们中长期医药投资策略开篇，后续我们将针对各投资方向做进一步展开分析。 ➢ 1）复盘-至暗时刻已过，进入医药新常态：我们复盘了医药20年，板块二级表现既与基本面强相关，亦受政策强扰动，每个阶段医药表现均有所不同。 受制于疫情、医疗反腐和医保控费等，近四年的深 ...

华福证券 银行 2024 年 08 月 26 日 20240826 日报：央行缩量续作 MLF 投资要点： 板块表现： 8 月 26 日，沪深 300 指数微跌，银行板块逆势上涨。截至收盘， 沪深 300 指数下跌 0.09%，银行指数上涨 0.13%。分板块来看，国有行 下跌 0.18%，股份行、城商行、农商行分别上涨 0.21%、0.32%、0.35%。 个股表现： 截至收盘，涨幅前三的银行分别为齐鲁银行+1.93%、张家港行 +1.80%、江阴银行+1.61%。跌幅前三的银行分别是浦发银行-1.33%、 成都银行-0.53%、工商银行-0.46%。 行业新闻： （1）央行缩量续作 MLF。央行公开市场今日开展 4710 亿元 7 天 期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.70%，与此前持平。央行同时开展 3000 亿 元 1 年期 MLF 操作，中标利率维持 2.30%不变。 （2）财政部等六部门印发《市政基础设施资产管理办法（试行）》。 办法强调，政府投资建设的市政基础设施资产应当依法严格履行基本 建设审批程序，落实资金来源，加强预算约束，防范政府债务风险。 严禁为没有收益或收益不足的市政基础设施资产违法违规举 ...

华福证券 昆药集团（600422.SH） 三九赋能改革持续深化，战略目标明确 投资要点： 公司高基数下短期承压，Q3 有望迎来拐点 24 年 H1：公司实现营业收入 35.54 亿元，同比下滑 5.73%；实现归母 净利润 2.29 亿元，同比增长 2.74%；实现扣非归母净利润 1.6 亿元，同比 下滑 9.75%。 24 年 Q2：公司实现营业收入 17.02 亿，同比下滑 8.54%；实现归母净 利润 1.11 亿元，同比增长 19.98%，实现扣非归母净利润 0.47 亿元，同比 下降 36.18%。 收入下滑主要系短期业务结构持续优化及针剂业务因相关政策的影 响，核心品种放量明确，战略规划目标不变，在相关因素出清后随着华润 赋能不断深化，公司有望持续兑现战略目标。 华润赋能改革持续深化，百亿工业战略目标明确 2024 年是公司加入华润大家庭、与华润三九稳步推进融合重塑的第二 年，公司持续推动全面融合工作，加深双方在价值、业务、组织及精神层 面的深度融合，锚定"银发健康产业引领者"战略核心，力争 2028 年末实 现营业收入翻番，工业收入达到 100 亿元的战略目标。 重塑品牌，整合渠道，核心品种明确 ...