19 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Li Ning (2331 HK) We see long-term value but short-term risks In the short run, we are still quite cautious about Li Ning in 2H24E, because of: 1) risks of greater retail discounts or promotion, 2) risks of trade fair orders adjustments, 3) unfavorable channel mix and operating deleverage and 4) relatively fixed opex. However, from the long run prospective, we can still see the value in Li Ning, esp. when we consider its ex-cash ...

19 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update RemeGen (9995 HK) Strong sales performance in 2Q In 2Q24, RemeGen recorded strong product sales, with revenue reaching RMB411mn (+77% YoY), mainly from the product sales of RC18 and RC48, compared to RMB330mn in 1Q24 (+24% QoQ) and RMB254mn in 2Q23 (+62% YoY). The total product sales were RMB729mn in 1H24 (+75% YoY), representing approximately 47% of our previous FY24 estimate, largely in line with our expectations. We are reass ...

19 Aug 2024 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 中国虹桥 （ 1378 香港 ） 1H24 净利润同比 + 2.7 倍 ， 超预期 鸿桥的净利润达到人民币91.6亿元（同比增长270%），这比6月预估的增长220%要好。若排 除可转换债券（CB）的公允价值损失，核心净利润甚至会更高，达到人民币105亿元（同比增 长330%）。强劲的利润增长主要得益于铝（Al）和氧化铝的单位毛利率超预期的扩张：铝的 单位毛利率从每吨人民币4277元同比增长2倍至每吨人民币4277元，氧化铝的单位毛利率则 从每吨人民币748元同比增长230%至每吨人民币748元。鸿桥提议的中期股息为每股港币 0.59元，代表约57%的派息比率。最新的上海铝价（含增值税）从8月初的每吨人民币18835 元反弹至每吨人民币19310元。我们认为近期股价回调是一个买入机会。我们预计每1%的铝 价格上涨将提升鸿桥的盈利约4%，当前价格提供了超过8%的吸引人收益。基于2024年的市 盈率9.8倍的评估，我们的目标价保持不变，为港币17.9元。维持评级。BUY. 铝合金产品 （ 1H24 占收入的 67% ） ：上半年该部门收入同 ...

19 Aug 2024 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 中兴通讯 (000063 CH) 混合 1H24 结果 中兴通讯宣布了2024年半年度结果。收入较上年同期增长2.9%，至人民币625亿元，净利润 则增长4.8%，至57亿元。尽管国内电信运营商对中兴通讯的电信业务面临资本支出下滑的逆 风，但非电信业务实现了两位数的增长（消费者和政府/企业部门分别同比增长14.3%和 56.1%）。按季度来看，第二季度的收入较上年同期增长1.1% / 季比增长4.4%，净利润增长 5.7% / 季比增长9.1%。毛利率环比下降至39%，主要由于不利的产品组合（即高利润率的电 信部门贡献减少）。运营成本优化使得2024年第二季度的净利润率环比改善至9.4%（相比第 一季度和2023财年的9% / 7.5%）。展望未来，我们认为非电信业务将维持两位数的增长，这 将抵消电信业务的疲软。该股目前市盈率为 11.9 倍 2024E ， 维持买入 ， 调整后 TP 为 32.86 元。 在面对国内电信公司对资本支出的严格控制以及中国5G网络建设已取得显著进展的背景 下，运营商部门面临逆风。预计到2024年，中国电信 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HK$10.80, representing an 84.9% upside from the current price of HK$5.84 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 11.9% year-on-year for 1H24, down from 16.8% in 1H23, attributed to extended transaction cycles and macroeconomic headwinds affecting small and micro enterprises [2]. - The net loss for 1H24 was RMB 218 million, a 23% decrease year-on-year, indicating a commitment to improving operational efficiency [2]. - The company's core SaaS product, Galaxy, showed a healthy annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth of 24% in 1H24, although this was a decline from 29% in 1H23 [2]. - Cloud revenue grew by 17.2% year-on-year, reaching RMB 2.4 billion, accounting for 83.2% of total revenue, up from 79.5% in 1H23 [2]. - The company expects revenue growth to accelerate to 16% in 2H24, despite a 4% downward revision in the 2024 revenue forecast [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY24E, the company is projected to generate revenue of RMB 6.475 billion, reflecting a 14% year-on-year growth [3][4]. - The net profit is expected to improve significantly, with a forecasted loss of only RMB 11.5 million for FY24E, compared to a loss of RMB 209.9 million in FY23A [3][4]. - Gross profit margin is projected to be 64.9% for FY24E, slightly improving from 64.5% in FY23A [4][5]. - Operating cash flow (OCF) guidance for 2024 remains at RMB 900 million, indicating confidence in operational efficiency improvements [2]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue from large enterprises grew by 38.9% year-on-year in 1H24, indicating stable demand despite longer transaction cycles [2]. - The Galaxy product line generated RMB 1.1 billion in revenue for 1H24, marking a 14.3% increase year-on-year [2]. - The contribution of cloud revenue continues to rise, with a significant increase in the share of total revenue [2]. Market Position and Outlook - The management remains optimistic about the recovery of demand, particularly for small enterprises, and anticipates a gradual improvement in contract values and transaction cycles [2]. - The company signed 275 new customers for its C&C business in 1H24, emphasizing the solid expansion trajectory of its lifetime contract value (LTCV) [2].

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 49.8, based on 19x 2024 forecasted P/E [1][2] Core Views - Strong H1 2024 performance with revenue up 42.1% YoY to RMB 291 million and net profit up 46.3% YoY to RMB 67 million [1] - Revenue growth driven by expanded product portfolio (over 500 models by H1 2024), deepened customer relationships, and distribution network expansion [1] - Gross margin declined to 51.3% in H1 2024 due to increased inventory write-down provisions, but core gross margin remained stable at 55.2% [1] - Net margin improved to 23.1% in H1 2024, compared to 22.4% in H1 2023 and 23.5% in 2023 [1] - Revenue expected to grow at 40.2% and 37.8% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, driven by product diversification and strong distributor relationships [2] Financial Performance - Revenue CAGR of 73.6% from 2020 to 2023, with product portfolio expanding from 8 models in 2020 to over 500 models by H1 2024 [2] - 90% of H1 2024 revenue came from distributors, up from 87.5% in 2023 [2] - Forecasted revenue for 2024 and 2025 at RMB 650 million and RMB 896 million, respectively, with net profit of RMB 146 million and RMB 210 million [3][8] - Gross margin expected to stabilize at 53%-55% from 2024 to 2026 [2] Valuation - Current 2024 and 2025 P/E ratios at 10x and 7x, respectively, considered highly attractive [2] - Target price implies a potential upside of 102.4% from the current price of HKD 24.6 [4] Industry and Market Position - Leading supplier of industrial-grade analog IC patterned wafers in China with proprietary EDA software and reusable IP library [1] - Strong R&D capabilities and execution by management team evidenced by rapid product portfolio expansion [2] Financial Projections - Forecasted sales revenue for 2024 and 2025 at RMB 650 million and RMB 896 million, with net profit of RMB 146 million and RMB 210 million [3][8] - Operating profit expected to grow at 36.1% and 42.5% in 2024 and 2025, respectively [3] - ROE projected to improve from 16.1% in 2024 to 22.6% in 2026 [3]

19 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update China Hongqiao (1378 HK) Net profit 1H24 +2.7x YoY, beat expectations Hongqiao's net profit came in at RMB9.16bn (+2.7x YoY), which is better than the pre-announced profit growth of 2.2x in Jun. Excluding the fair value loss of convertible bonds (CB), the core net profit would be even higher at RMB10.5bn (+3.3x YoY). The strong profit growth was driven by higher-than-expected unit gross margin expansion for both aluminum (Al) (+ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Kingdee with a target price lowered to HK$10.80 per share from HK$15.50, indicating an upside potential of 84.9% from the current price of HK$5.84 [3]. Core Insights - Kingdee's revenue for 1H24 increased by 11.9% YoY to RMB2.87 billion, slightly below Bloomberg consensus estimates, attributed to a lengthened deal cycle and macroeconomic challenges affecting small and micro enterprises [2]. - The net loss for 1H24 was RMB218 million, representing a 23% YoY reduction and 20% narrower than consensus estimates, showcasing Kingdee's focus on improving operational efficiency [2]. - The company's core SaaS product, Galaxy, demonstrated healthy growth with a 24% YoY increase in subscription ARR in 1H24, although the dollar retention rate slightly decreased to 95% [2]. - Kingdee's cloud revenue grew by 17.2% YoY to RMB2.4 billion, accounting for 83.2% of total revenue, while license ERP revenue declined by 8.8% YoY [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E have been lowered by 4% to RMB6.475 billion, with expectations for 2H24 revenue growth to reaccelerate to 16% [2][6]. - The gross profit margin improved to 63.2% in 1H24, up 1.3 percentage points YoY, driven by increased cloud revenue contribution [2]. - Kingdee's operating loss is projected to narrow, with a forecasted net profit of RMB240.6 million in FY25E and RMB466.8 million in FY26E [5][9]. Customer and Market Dynamics - Kingdee signed 275 new customers for its Cosmic & Constellation (C&C) business in 1H24, with revenue growth of 38.9% YoY [2]. - The lifetime contract value (LTCV) for C&C customers has shown a solid expansion trajectory, indicating strong demand for localized software solutions [2]. - Management's guidance remains optimistic for operational cash flow (OCF) growth, targeting RMB900 million for 2024, despite a slower overall revenue growth pace [2].

2024 年 8 月 16 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 通胀延续放缓 美国 7 月 CPI 与核心 CPI 增速符合预期，显示通胀延续放缓。以同比增速衡量， 商品通胀持续为负，房租通胀和其他服务通胀放缓，但仍分别达到 4.9%和 4.6%，因房租和工资合同调价存在滞后期。展望未来，CPI 与核心 CPI 增速可能 延续温和放缓，驱动因素包括房租通胀补跌、工资增速下降和大宗商品价格回 调。随着通胀延续下降和就业市场降温，美联储降息时机不断临近。9月降息已无 悬念，分歧在于降息幅度是 25 个基点还是 50 个基点。由于房租环比涨幅反弹， 市场预期 9 月降息 25 个基点概率从 47%升至 62.5%，降息 50 个基点概率从 53% 降至 37.5%。美联储的注意力已从抗通胀转向双目标平衡，对就业市场更加关 注。目前美国经济放缓仍属温和，通胀下降但仍高于 2%目标。我们预计美联储将 在 9 月和 12 月两次降息合计 50 个基点，明年进一步降息 4 次共 100 个基点。 CPI增速略低于预期，商品通胀延续为负。7月 CPI季调后环比增长 0.15%， 接近市场预期的 0.2 ...

适用于本文件在美国的收件人 请阅读最后一页的分析师认证和重要披露 9 15 Aug 2024 腾讯 （ 700 香港 ） 腾讯于2024年8月14日公布了第二季度（2Q24）的财务结果：总收入同比增长8%，达到 1611亿人民币，与我们的预期和市场共识（分别为1609亿和1614亿）基本一致；非国际财务 报告准则（IFRS）下的营业利润同比增长27%，达到584亿人民币，基本符合我们对577亿人 民币的预测；非IFRS净收入增加了53%，达到573亿人民币，比我们的预期和市场共识分别高 出了17%和18%，主要原因是联营公司收益份额的增加（同比增长66亿人民币）。受益于游 戏毛收入的强劲增长，我们对下半年（2H24）的收入增长加速和盈利增长持乐观态度。电子 商务生态系统的建设将在中长期支持互联网消费业务的增长，而随着经济势头的恢复，金融服 务业务（FBS）的收入有望反弹。我们保持了2024至2026财年的运营利润预测基本不变，并 将非IFRS净收入预测上调5-8%，以反映联营公司收益份额的增加。我们维持了基于股东权益 总额（SOTP）得出的目标价为480港元和买入评级。 游戏业务在第二季度录得稳健复苏。游戏收 ...