证券研究报告 万辰集团 (300972 CH) 盈利能力明显提升，Q4 店效趋势向好 华泰研究 公告点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(人民币): 276.00 樊俊豪 研究员 SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 石狄 研究员 SAC No. S0570524090003 SFC No. BVO045 曾珺 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120004 SFC No. BTM417 季珂* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525080003 jike@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 | 会计年度 (人民币) | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 (百万) | 32,329 | 51,941 | 62,330 | 72,305 | | +/-% | 247.86 | 60.66 | 20.00 | 16.00 | | 归属母公司净利润 | 293.52 | 1,381 | 2,054 | 2,520 | | (百万) | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Zai Lab with a "Buy" rating and a target price of RMB 166.16 [1][6] Core Insights - Zai Lab is a leading player in the TCE (T cell engager) field, with its flagship product ZG006 (DLL3/DLL3/CD3) expected to achieve a domestic peak sales of over RMB 4 billion and an overseas peak of nearly USD 6 billion [2][19] - The company has four innovative drugs already approved for sale in China, providing a sustainable cash flow to support early-stage R&D pipelines [1][15] - Zai Lab has partnered with AbbVie to expand ZG006 into international markets, which is anticipated to accelerate clinical progress and enhance market penetration [2][19] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Zai Lab with a target price of RMB 166.16 [1][6] Market Potential - ZG006 is projected to have a domestic peak sales of over RMB 4 billion and an overseas peak of nearly USD 6 billion, driven by the high unmet medical need in small cell lung cancer (SCLC) [2][19] - The report highlights the potential for ZG006 to achieve a significant market share in the first-line SCLC treatment, with expectations of a 30% peak market share due to AbbVie's commercialization capabilities [5][19] Product Pipeline - Zai Lab has a robust pipeline with multiple innovative drugs, including ZG005 (PD-1/TIGIT) and ZGGS34 (MUC17/CD3/CD28), which are in various stages of clinical trials [4][22] - The company has successfully commercialized four innovative drugs, including Donafenib, which generated approximately RMB 530 million in sales in 2024 [3][15] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Zai Lab's revenue to grow from RMB 843 million in 2025 to RMB 2.22 billion in 2027, with a projected net profit of RMB 5.46 million in 2025 [6][10] - The DCF valuation method estimates a target market capitalization of RMB 43.98 billion, corresponding to the target price of RMB 166.16 [6][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the consumer discretionary sector [7] Core Insights - The "Work Plan" issued by the State Council aims to stimulate domestic demand by fostering new growth points in service consumption, focusing on six key areas including transportation, housekeeping, and online audiovisual services, as well as three potential areas: performance services, sports events, and emotional experience services [1][2] - The report emphasizes that service consumption is a natural direction for consumption upgrading and the pursuit of a better life by residents, with significant long-term potential in China as service consumption typically increases with GDP growth [1] - The report suggests that the recovery of service consumption will help shift traffic from online to offline, benefiting related industries such as dining, tourism, and retail [1] Summary by Sections Service Consumption Growth - The "Work Plan" includes twelve specific measures to enhance service consumption, with a focus on optimizing supply and encouraging innovative consumption scenarios [2][4] - The report highlights the importance of developing high-quality supply and encourages proactive exploration of new business models in the service sector [4] Transportation and Tourism Integration - The "Work Plan" proposes initiatives such as developing senior tourism trains and enhancing the quality of cruise and night tour services, which are expected to benefit related sectors [3] - The report notes that the integration of transportation and tourism, along with the emergence of quality tourism supply, will lead to an upturn in specific tourism segments [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the consumer sector, including: - Travel Chain: Recommended companies include Atour, Huazhu Group, Shoulv Hotel, and China Duty Free [5] - Ready-to-Drink Beverages and Dining: Recommended companies include Guming, Yum China, Yihai International, Dashihua, Chabaidao, Xiaocaiyuan, and Haidilao [5] - Emotional Consumption: Recommended companies include Pop Mart, Laopu Gold, Blukoo, Miniso, Shangmei, Maogeping, and Juzibio [5] - Scenario Chains: Recommended companies include Guoquan, Wancheng Group, Wanwu Xingsheng, and Shengbeila [5] - Sports Apparel: Recommended companies include Anta, Amer Sports, and Li Ning [5] Key Company Insights - Pop Mart has initiated share buybacks, reflecting confidence in growth prospects, and is expected to accelerate the diversification of its IP structure [12] - Laopu Gold is anticipated to perform well during the upcoming Spring Festival, with expectations of exceeding sales forecasts due to ongoing brand expansion and strong market demand [12] - Miniso's recent performance has exceeded guidance, driven by a successful large store strategy and improved operational efficiency [12]

Group 1: Real Estate Sector - Recent performance of AH real estate stocks has outperformed market indices, with the Hong Kong real estate index rising by 7.3% and the A-share real estate index increasing by 5.5% from January 19 to 29 [2] - The valuation recovery of real estate stocks is driven by low valuations and multiple factors, including improved liquidity in Hong Kong and expectations of marginal improvement in the real estate fundamentals [2] - The period until March is seen as a window for policy and market recovery, which may support continued valuation recovery for real estate stocks [2] Group 2: Consumer Services - The State Council has issued a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, focusing on six key areas and three potential sectors [3] - The plan aims to enhance service consumption, which is expected to drive a shift from online to offline spending, benefiting related industries such as dining, tourism, and retail [3] - The long-term outlook for service consumption in China is positive, with significant growth potential as consumer demand continues to evolve [3] Group 3: Fixed Income and Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market has seen a resurgence, with a 7.69% increase in the convertible bond index, outperforming major stock indices [4] - The market is benefiting from seasonal stock market trends and inflows into "fixed income plus" products, indicating a strong trading environment for convertible bonds [4] - The focus is shifting towards trading attributes as the investment value in convertible bonds diminishes [4] Group 4: Utilities Sector - The demand for natural gas in China's manufacturing sector is expected to grow moderately, with a 2% annual growth rate from 2026 to 2028, but with significant structural differentiation [6] - Emerging manufacturing sectors are projected to see the highest demand growth, while traditional high-energy-consuming industries are expected to decline [6] - The transformation of the city gas industry towards comprehensive energy services presents core opportunities for companies capable of adapting to these changes [6] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Sector - Zai Lab is recognized as a leading player in the T-cell engager (TCE) field, with its product ZG006 expected to achieve significant domestic and international sales [7] - The company has four innovative drugs already on the market, providing a sustainable cash flow to support ongoing research and development [7] - The target price for Zai Lab is set at 166.16 yuan, reflecting strong growth potential in the TCE market [7] Group 6: Electric Equipment and New Energy - TBEA is expected to benefit from a favorable market environment in 2026, with multiple business segments entering a growth phase [8] - The company is projected to see increased demand for its power transmission and transformation equipment due to global shortages [8] - The target price for TBEA is set at 33.31 yuan, indicating strong earnings potential in the coming years [8] Group 7: Social Media Sector - Meta's Q4 2025 revenue grew by 24% year-on-year to $59.9 billion, driven by significant improvements in advertising efficiency due to AI [9] - The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to reach between $53.5 billion and $56.5 billion, exceeding market expectations [9] - The introduction of new AI-driven products is anticipated to further enhance revenue growth in 2026 [9] Group 8: Education Sector - TAL Education reported a 27% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3 FY26, driven by strong growth in its K12 business [11] - The company has maintained a high operating profit margin, significantly exceeding market expectations [11] - The outlook for TAL Education remains positive, with continued growth anticipated in its educational services [11] Group 9: Agriculture Sector - Shennong Group is expected to face a decline in net profit for 2025 due to falling pig prices, but maintains a strong growth outlook due to cost advantages [10] - The company is positioned as a rare growth and financially stable entity within the current pig cycle [10] - The target price for Shennong Group remains favorable, reflecting its potential for recovery and growth [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the public utilities and gas distribution sectors [5] Core Insights - The report predicts a moderate growth in China's manufacturing natural gas demand from 2026 to 2028, with an average annual growth rate of 2%. The demand will be characterized by significant structural differentiation, with emerging manufacturing sectors and automotive manufacturing showing the highest growth rates, while traditional high-energy-consuming industries will see a decline [10][20] - The transformation of the city gas industry from "resource distribution" to "comprehensive energy services" is highlighted as a key opportunity, driven by the optimization of customer structure, expansion of value-added services, and improved pricing efficiency [24][25] Summary by Sections Demand Side: Structural Differentiation as the Core Theme - In 2022, the manufacturing sector's natural gas consumption was 155 billion cubic meters, accounting for 8.56% of total energy consumption. The demand is expected to experience a "slow climb - deceleration - stabilization" process from 2023 to 2025, with traditional industries facing pressure while emerging industries continue to grow [2][10] - The report forecasts that from 2026 to 2028, the main sources of growth will be emerging manufacturing sectors such as integrated circuits and biomedicine, with an average annual growth rate of 4.8%, and automotive manufacturing, particularly in new energy vehicles, with a growth rate of 7.8% [21][22] City Gas Industry: Three Opportunities Against Three Challenges - The recovery of manufacturing natural gas demand will be a critical juncture for the city gas industry to shift from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement." This shift is expected to alleviate short-term profit pressures and support business structure reconstruction and core competitiveness enhancement [3][11] - Opportunities include an increase in high-value customers from emerging manufacturing sectors, which are expected to improve gas sales gross margins by 2-3 percentage points by 2028. Challenges include the loss of traditional customer demand, competition from alternative energy sources, and intensified regional competition [3][11] Differentiation from Market Views - The report emphasizes the quantification of demand differentiation trends across various sectors, highlighting the dual drivers of "policy support + industrial expansion" rather than a singular focus on environmental pressures. It also clarifies the boundaries and pace of alternative energy impacts on natural gas demand, indicating that the substitution effect from emerging industries is relatively weak [4][14] Investment Focus - The investment focus is on capturing structural dividends and realizing transformation capabilities, with a particular emphasis on three types of companies: national city gas leaders (Kunlun Energy, China Gas), regional leaders (Shenzhen Gas, Fuan Energy), and energy service platform companies (Xinao Gas) [12][24]

证券研究报告 港股通 中国重汽 (3808 HK) 聚力开门红，出口拓宽成长路 2026 年 1 月 29 日│中国香港 商用车 进入 26 年，公司全力冲刺"开门红"，为新一年的销量增长打下坚实基础。 展望 26 年，行业端受益于两新政策快速衔接（内销）和亚非拉地区重点突 破（出口），我们看好重卡行业保持高景气度。公司作为头部重卡企业或率 先受益，维持"买入"评级。 25 年交出亮眼答卷，26 年"开局即冲刺" 王立献* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525020001 wanglixian@htsc.com +(86) 755 8249 2388 2025 年，中国重汽集团整车销量突破 44 万辆，其中重卡销量 30 万辆，不 仅连续 4 年销量稳居国内重卡行业第一公司，更成为全球重卡销量龙头。我 们认为公司取得亮眼成绩，主要原因系：①强大生产制造能力支撑；②国内 市场充分受益于两新政策范围扩大（扩大至国四）和快速衔接；③海外市场 的持续耕耘（12 月与哈萨克斯坦卡拉干达州州长举行会见并签约）。进入 26 年，集团召开"新征程·谋新篇·势夺首季开门红"的生产经营大会。 我们认为该会议为公司 Q1 开门 ...

证券研究报告 新东方 (9901 HK/EDU US) 新东方公布 2QFY26 业绩（以下简称 Q2）：总收入 11.91 亿美元， yoy+14.7%，增速超指引上限（12%）；调整后经营利润 0.89 亿美元，对 应 OPM 为 7.5%，同比提升 4.7pct，大幅超过彭博一致预期（yoy+2pct）。 公司指引 3QFY26/FY26 全年美元口径总收入同比增长 11~14%/8~12%（彭 博一致预期 12%/10%），反映教学质量提升、需求回归和汇率顺风的影响。 我们认为公司核心 K12 业务增长稳健，降本增效及多元化发展下集团利润 率有望逐步改善，长期有望为股东创造持续稳定的回报，维持"买入"。 K12 业务兑现秋季提速，经营利润率提升超预期 分业务看，随着秋季 K12 行业回归正价竞争，头部品牌机构增长环比改善， 教育属性新业务收入在 Q2 同比增速加速至 21.6%；大学生及成人教育收入 同比增长 12.8%（Q1:14.4%），增速稳健；留学考培收入同比增长 4.1%， 留学咨询收入同比下降约 3%，逆境中展现较强韧性。得益于运营杠杆的优 化、成本控制措施的逐步落地，以及东方甄选的盈利贡 ...

证券研究报告 新东方 (9901 HK/EDU US) 低基数下利润有望持续释放 华泰研究 中报点评 2026 年 1 月 29 日│中国香港/美国 K12 教育 优化组织架构，有望助力运营提效 据业绩会，公司计划在 2026 财年结束前（即 2026 年 5 月底前），将其留 学咨询和留学考培业务正式合并。我们认为在出国留学行业进入存量竞争的 大背景下，合并两大板块有望精简服务链条，强化规模效应，提升运营效率， 同时通过合并管理团队、教师、营销及行政人员等降低成本。 维持"买入"评级 考虑到 K12 收入提速、降本增效及汇率顺风的影响，我们略微上调 FY26/27/28 non-GAAP 归母净利润至 5.78/6.81/7.56 亿美元（前值： 5.62/6.48/7.07 亿美元）。可比公司彭博一致预期均值 15.47x FY26 PE， 考虑到公司核心业务盈利稳健性及股东回报行业领先，给予公司 18x FY26 PE，得到目标价 65.43 美元/51.39 港元（前值：67.31 美元/52.66 港元，基 于集团整体 non-GAAP 归母净利润 19.06x FY26 PE），维持"买入"。 风 ...

证券研究报告 特变电工 (600089 CH) 多业务板块景气共振开启价值重估 2026 年 1 月 29 日│中国内地 首次覆盖特变电工公司并给予"买入"评级，目标价 33.31 元，对应 26 年 PE 22X。我们认为公司 26 年多业务板块步入景气上行阶段，输变电业务有 望充分受益于全球高压设备紧缺外溢实现加速出海；黄金业务量价齐升；煤 炭、多晶硅拐点齐现，我们预计公司 26-27 年具备较强的向上盈利弹性。 输变电：出海有望加速突破，国内主网周期向上 公司是国内民营主变龙头，是国内少数具备"高压电缆+附件+施工"一体 化集成服务能力的企业。海外方面，全球高压电力设备持续紧缺，AIDC 进 一步放大供需缺口，国内高压电力设备企业拥抱出海新时代。公司海外订单 高速增长，23 年、24 年、25H1 公司国际市场产品分别实现签约超 7 亿美 元、超 12 亿美元、11.20 亿美元，25H1 同比增长 65.9%；截至 25H1，公 司输变电国际成套项目在手合同金额超 50 亿美元。25 年 8 月斩获沙特约 164 亿元框架标。伴随海外高盈利市场收入占比提升与供给紧张下产品价格 有望进一步推升，公司变压 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on TBEA Co., Ltd. with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of 33.31 RMB, corresponding to a 2026 PE of 22X [1][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that TBEA's multiple business segments are entering a phase of upward momentum, with the power transmission and transformation business expected to benefit from global high-pressure equipment shortages, leading to accelerated international expansion [1][17]. - The gold business is experiencing simultaneous increases in both volume and price, while coal and polysilicon sectors are also showing signs of recovery, indicating strong upward profit elasticity for the company in 2026-2027 [1][17]. - The report emphasizes that TBEA is a leading player in the energy equipment sector, with a diversified portfolio that includes power transmission, energy, new energy, and new materials, positioning the company for robust growth [23]. Summary by Sections Power Transmission and Transformation - TBEA is a leading private transformer manufacturer in China, with integrated capabilities in high-voltage cables, accessories, and construction services. The company is witnessing rapid growth in overseas orders, with international market product contracts exceeding 7 billion USD in 2023 and 12 billion USD in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 65.9% in the first half of 2025 [2][18]. - The domestic market is also expected to see a significant increase in grid investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with TBEA's market share in main grid tenders continuing to rise, providing a solid foundation for future growth [2][18]. Resource Products - The gold mining segment is currently in a rapid capacity release phase, with projected production increasing from 2.2 tons in 2024 to 3.6 tons in 2027, potentially generating revenues of 19.8 billion RMB to 46.4 billion RMB during this period, with year-on-year growth rates of 65.9% to 29.2% [3][19]. - TBEA's coal business benefits from low-cost open-pit mining resources, with a production cost of only 177 RMB per ton in the first half of 2025. The company is also developing a coal-to-gas project that is expected to enhance profitability [3][20]. - The polysilicon segment is anticipated to achieve significant cost reductions, with cash costs expected to decrease by approximately 18% in the first half of 2025, allowing the company to return to cash flow breakeven [4][21]. Market Perspective - The report notes a divergence from market perceptions, indicating that TBEA's diverse business segments are now in an upward cycle, contrary to the prevailing view that the company is being dragged down by its renewable energy and coal businesses [5][22]. - The company is positioned to leverage its strengths in various sectors, including power transmission, coal-to-gas, gold production, and polysilicon, to drive future growth and profitability [5][22].