证券研究报告 宏观 广义财政支出降幅有所收窄 ——12 月财政数据点评 2026 年 1 月 30 日│中国内地 动态点评 12 月广义财政支出同比降幅继续收窄，而修正后的广义财政支出（季调后） 环比增长略有放缓，显示高基数下 12 月广义财政支出力度偏紧、广义财政自 去年 9 月起或为支持今年经济增长"开门红"留有一定资金储备。具体看，12 月广义财政（一般公共预算+政府性基金）支出同比降幅较 11 月的 1.7%继续 收窄至 0.7%，剔除注资特别国债和用于化债的"特殊专项债"后同比降幅亦较 11 月的 3.8%收窄至 0.8%；然而，修正后的（季调后）广义财政支出环比增 长从 11 月的 33.8%放缓至 10.9%、可能反映高基数下 12 月广义财政支出力 度偏紧、广义财政自去年 9 月起或为支持今年经济增长"开门红"留有一定资金 储备（参见《财政能否助力"开门红"?》，2025/12/28）。具体看， ▪ 支出端而言， 12 月广义财政支出同比降幅边际收窄，而季调后剔除 注资特别国债和"特殊"专项债的广义财政支出增长环比有所放缓。12 月广义财政（一般公共预算+政府性基金）支出同比降幅较 11月的 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both A-shares and H-shares, maintained from previous assessments [7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in 2025, with projected revenue of 3.25 billion RMB, representing an increase of 89% year-over-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 716 million RMB, marking a turnaround from previous losses [2][12]. - The company is advancing its overseas business development (BD) efforts, with expected contributions from key products and partnerships, including a notable deal with AbbVie for RC148, which includes a $650 million upfront payment [3][5]. - The domestic market is showing strong performance, with core products expected to maintain rapid revenue growth due to manageable price reductions in insurance renewals and potential approvals for new indications [2][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 have been adjusted to 3.25 billion RMB, with a significant increase in net profit to 716 million RMB, reflecting a substantial recovery from previous losses [12][17]. - The company anticipates continued growth in 2026, with revenue expected to reach 7.83 billion RMB, driven by both domestic sales and international BD activities [11][12]. Pipeline Development - The clinical development of RC148 is progressing, with potential for global Phase III trials to start soon, which could enhance its market position significantly [3][4]. - The company is also advancing other key products, including the global Phase III clinical trials for its lead candidates, which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [4][5]. Valuation and Price Target - The target price for A-shares is set at 151.81 RMB, while the target price for H-shares is 143.58 HKD, reflecting a premium of 18.80% based on recent valuations [5][14]. - The valuation adjustments are based on changes in the fair value of warrants and a decrease in debt financing needs, leading to an updated forecast for net profits in the coming years [12][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of $539.22 [1][5] Core Views - The company reported FY26Q2 revenue of $81.3 billion, a year-over-year increase of 17%, exceeding Visible Alpha consensus by 1.20% [1] - The growth in revenue was primarily driven by the productivity and business processes, as well as the intelligent cloud segments, indicating a strong outlook for AI commercialization in FY2026 [1] - The number of paid users for M365 Copilot exceeded 15 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 160%, while GitHub Copilot paid users reached 4.7 million, up 75% year-over-year [2] - The intelligent cloud business revenue reached $32.9 billion, with Azure and other cloud services revenue growing by 39% year-over-year, although the growth rate showed a slight deceleration compared to the previous quarter [3] - The company’s capital expenditures (CapEx) for FY26Q2 were $37.5 billion, a 66% increase year-over-year, indicating a strong commitment to AI commercialization despite a guidance for a slowdown in CapEx for FY26Q3 [4] - Revenue forecasts for FY26-28 have been slightly adjusted upwards to $326.5 billion, $380.6 billion, and $445.8 billion respectively, with EPS estimates also increased [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY26Q2 revenue was $81.3 billion, with a 17% year-over-year increase and net profit of $38.5 billion, up 60% year-over-year [1] - The productivity and business processes segment generated $34.1 billion in revenue, a 16% increase year-over-year, driven by the acceleration of Copilot product commercialization [2] - The intelligent cloud segment reported $32.9 billion in revenue, a 29% increase year-over-year, with Azure revenue growing by 39% [3] Capital Expenditures - CapEx for FY26Q2 was $37.5 billion, a 66% increase year-over-year, indicating a strong focus on AI commercialization [4] - The company expects a slowdown in CapEx for FY26Q3, but overall CapEx growth for FY26 is anticipated to exceed FY25 levels [4] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for FY26-28 have been adjusted to $326.5 billion, $380.6 billion, and $445.8 billion respectively, reflecting positive growth expectations [5] - EPS estimates for FY26-28 have been slightly increased to $16.34, $19.43, and $23.16 respectively [5]

证券研究报告 华锐精密 (688059 CH) 高端领域持续布局强化竞争优势 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 1 月 | 30 日│中国内地 | 通用机械 | 目标价(人民币): | 123.97 | 随着全球制造业加速向数字化、智能化转型，华锐精密持续加码技术创新， 自主研发"智加"工业软件系统，成功实现加工全流程智能化监测与优化， 有效提升生产效率与加工质量。公司积极布局人形机器人等新兴高增长产 业，聚焦核心零部件加工环节的需求痛点，针对性研发创新刀具解决方案， 凭借技术优势抢占市场先机。此外，公司凭借多年深耕积累，构建起覆盖全 国的销售网络和经销模式，渠道布局优势显著。叠加当前原料成本上涨背景 下的行业红利，公司有望进一步强化技术壁垒，巩固市场地位，持续扩大市 场份额，充分受益于行业升级与新兴赛道发展的双重机遇。维持买入评级。 创新工业软件系统，推动切削加工数字化升级 在制造业数字化与智能化深度融合背景下，切削加工正由"经验驱动"向"数 据驱动"转变。2025 年 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of $288.00, maintaining a valuation of 34.8x FY26E PE [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $143.8 billion for Q1 FY26, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 4%. This growth was primarily driven by strong sales of the iPhone 17 series, which saw a revenue increase of 23% year-on-year [1][2]. - The overall gross margin for the quarter was 48.2%, with guidance for the next quarter indicating a maintained gross margin of 48%-49%, which is better than market expectations amid rising storage prices [1][2]. - The company has established a partnership with Google to develop next-generation AI models, which is expected to enhance service monetization and maintain high-margin revenue streams in the AI era [1][4]. Performance Review and Guidance - iPhone sales were robust, with actual shipments reaching 81.3 million units in CY4Q25, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, and revenue from iPhone sales reached $85.3 billion, marking a 23% increase year-on-year [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) of iPhones increased by 17.6% due to strong sales in regions like China, the US, and the Middle East [2]. - For Q2 guidance, the company expects iPhone demand to remain strong, supporting a revenue growth of 13%-16% year-on-year [2]. Storage and Supply Chain Impact - The impact of storage price increases on gross margin is expected to be more pronounced in Q2, although the company has indicated that it has inventory buffers to mitigate immediate effects [3]. - The company is currently facing supply constraints in System on Chip (SoC) production due to strong iPhone demand, with the main bottleneck being TSMC's 3nm advanced process capacity [3]. AI Collaboration and Service Innovation - Service revenue reached $30.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with all segments including advertising, cloud services, and payment services hitting record highs [4]. - The collaboration with Google on AI models is expected to enhance the capabilities of Apple's services, including personalized Siri services, while maintaining user privacy standards [4]. Profit Forecast - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 at $121.7 billion, $129.8 billion, and $140.6 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.6%, 6.7%, and 8.4% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $896.00 [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a 24% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4 2025, reaching $59.9 billion, exceeding consensus expectations by 2.5% [4]. - The net profit for Q4 2025 increased by 9.3% year-over-year to $22.8 billion, also surpassing expectations by 8% [4]. - The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to be between $53.5 billion and $56.5 billion, higher than the anticipated $51.3 billion, with currency fluctuations contributing a 4% revenue increase [4]. - The company is projected to accelerate capital expenditures (Capex) in 2026, with an estimated spending of $115 billion to $135 billion [7]. - The introduction of new AI models is expected to enhance advertising effectiveness, contributing significantly to revenue growth [13]. Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2026 and 2027 have been increased by 7.2% and 12.8% to $254 billion and $304 billion, respectively, driven by the launch of more AI products [9]. - The net profit forecast for 2026 and 2027 has been adjusted downwards by 3.6% and 2% to $76.5 billion and $90 billion, respectively, due to rising R&D expenses and depreciation [9]. - The report introduces a new revenue forecast for 2028, estimating $353 billion in revenue and $105.8 billion in net profit [9]. - The target price of $896 corresponds to a 29.65x PE ratio for 2026, slightly adjusted from the previous $900 target [9]. Business Segment Performance - Advertising revenue in Q4 2025 grew by 24% year-over-year to $58.1 billion, with average revenue per user (ARPU) increasing by 16% [5]. - The company’s other revenue streams, including WhatsApp paid messaging and subscription services, saw a 54% increase year-over-year [5]. - The Reality Labs segment experienced a 12% decline in revenue to $960 million, attributed to a high base from previous quarters [5]. Strategic Developments - The Threads platform is expected to contribute between $2.3 billion and $6.5 billion in net profit for 2026, with a projected average daily active user (DAU) of approximately 220 million [14]. - The company has initiated the Meta Compute plan, aiming to build extensive computing facilities over the next decade, with significant investments in chip and energy sectors [16]. - Meta has acquired Limitless, an AI wearable device company, to enhance its audio processing and memory capabilities, complementing its existing hardware offerings [19]. Regulatory Environment - The company is currently facing an antitrust investigation by the EU regarding WhatsApp, which may have long-term implications but is not expected to have immediate substantial impacts on operations [17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 34.08 [1][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately RMB 300 million in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 66%, and a non-GAAP net profit of about RMB 250 million, reflecting a 101% increase [1][5]. - The growth in the company's performance is attributed to the strong demand for high-value products such as high-speed electronic resins and films used in emerging sectors like AI, new energy vehicles, and high-voltage applications [2][4]. - The company has established deep collaborations with key players in the industry, which positions it to benefit significantly from the rapid development of AI and low-orbit satellite sectors [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of RMB 5.43 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 21.44%, and a projected revenue of RMB 11.53 billion by 2027, indicating a growth of 47.64% [11]. - The expected net profit for 2026 is RMB 725 million, which is a 141.33% increase compared to 2025 [11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be RMB 0.30 in 2025 and RMB 0.72 in 2026 [11]. Product Development - The company is set to launch 3,500 tons of electronic-grade hydrocarbon resin in 2026, which is expected to meet the stringent requirements for M9 copper-clad laminates [3]. - The company has successfully begun mass supply of M9 resin, indicating its growing presence in the high-frequency and high-speed resin market [3]. Market Position - The company has successfully expanded its market share in high-value products, which has significantly enhanced its overall profitability [2]. - Collaborations with leading firms such as Taiko Electronics and Shengyi Technology are expected to further strengthen the company's market position and sales growth in high-frequency and high-speed resin products [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of HKD 5.08 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of HKD 77.5-78.5 billion for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.8-21.3%. The net profit is projected to be between HKD 4.4-4.6 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 83.7-92.0% [6][10]. - The company has accelerated its store openings, with a net increase of 805 stores in Q4, bringing the total to 11,566 stores. This expansion is supported by improved same-store sales and operational efficiency [7][8]. - The company is focusing on optimizing store types and innovating product categories, which are expected to drive long-term growth. The core advantages include an efficient supply chain, proprietary product development, and a large-scale operation [9][10]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2024: RMB 6,470 million - 2025: RMB 7,779 million (growth of 20.23%) - 2026: RMB 9,049 million (growth of 16.32%) - 2027: RMB 10,509 million (growth of 16.14%) [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be: - 2024: RMB 230.56 million - 2025: RMB 453.50 million (growth of 96.70%) - 2026: RMB 547.95 million (growth of 20.83%) - 2027: RMB 676.78 million (growth of 23.51%) [5]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from RMB 0.11 in 2024 to RMB 0.25 in 2027 [5]. Operational Highlights - The company has implemented strategies to enhance same-store sales through membership programs and promotional activities, resulting in an estimated same-store sales growth of approximately 6.5% in Q4 [7][8]. - The core operating profit for the second half of 2025 is expected to reach RMB 2.7 billion, with a corresponding core operating profit margin of about 5.9% [8]. - The company is investing in supply chain capabilities and has initiated the construction of an international food industry park in Hainan, which is expected to leverage favorable tax policies [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 276.00 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company's profitability has significantly improved, with a positive trend in store efficiency observed in Q4. The expected revenue for 2025 is projected to be between RMB 50 billion and RMB 52.8 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 54.7% to 63.3% [5][6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is forecasted to be between RMB 1.23 billion and RMB 1.4 billion, indicating a substantial increase of 319.1% to 377.0% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company is expected to maintain a rapid store opening pace in 2026, with ongoing expansion in non-zero food categories and proprietary brands, which will enhance same-store performance [5][6][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: RMB 32.33 billion - 2025: RMB 51.94 billion - 2026: RMB 62.33 billion - 2027: RMB 72.31 billion - The year-on-year growth rates for these years are projected at 247.86%, 60.66%, 20.00%, and 16.00% respectively [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach: - 2024: RMB 293.52 million - 2025: RMB 1.38 billion - 2026: RMB 2.05 billion - 2027: RMB 2.52 billion - The corresponding growth rates are 453.95%, 370.61%, 48.67%, and 22.71% [4]. Operational Insights - The company is enhancing its supply chain efficiency through systematic improvements, which are expected to drive gross margin expansion. The net profit margin for the snack retail business is projected to improve to 4.4%-5.1% in 2025, compared to 2.7% in 2024 [7][8]. - The company is also focusing on deepening membership operations, with the number of members reaching 150 million by August 2025, and increasing the average purchase frequency among active members [8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is diversifying its product offerings by adding categories such as baking, cooking oils, and frozen products, which will enhance store performance and flexibility in site selection [8]. - The ongoing optimization of operational efficiency through supply chain integration is expected to solidify cost advantages and improve inventory management [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of approximately 2.31 billion RMB in FY26H1, representing a year-over-year increase of 5.7%, with adjusted net profit reaching 258 million RMB, a significant improvement from a loss of 2 million RMB in FY25H1 [1][10]. - The company's self-operated products have shown strong performance, with their contribution to total GMV rising to 52.8% in FY26H1, up from 43.8% in FY25, indicating a successful shift towards brand transformation [2][10]. - The company is expanding its multi-channel strategy, with plans to open its first offline experience store in Beijing, enhancing customer engagement through a combination of shopping, leisure, and social experiences [3][10]. Financial Performance - The adjusted net profit forecasts for FY26-28 have been raised to 514 million, 535 million, and 603 million RMB, reflecting increases of 36%, 37%, and 43% respectively compared to previous estimates [4][10]. - The gross margin improved to 36.4% in FY26H1, driven by the healthy development of self-operated products and optimization of personnel costs [10]. Market Positioning - The company has successfully diversified its product categories from fresh food to high-demand areas such as nutritional supplements, pet food, and apparel, which has effectively boosted the gross margin of self-operated products [2][10]. - The membership base has grown to 240,100 in FY26H1, up from 228,300 in FY25H1, indicating a strong and expanding user engagement [3][10].