证券研究报告 策略 寻找迷雾中的确定性 华泰研究 2025 年 4 月 20 日│中国内地 策略周报 核心观点 国内方面，一季度中国经济实现良好开局，GDP 增长超预期下消费同样呈 现回升态势，对等关税扰动下稳内需政策或进一步加码。海外方面，在美中 概股若退市影响或可控，样本内未实现两地上市或不符合两地上市标准的中 概股市值占比小，且回流下给港股带来流动性冲击或可控。资金面上，受对 等关税压制风险偏好影响，上周被动型外资流出较多，南向资金流入速度略 放缓。操作上，建议配置：1）存政策逆周期调节预期及假期前交易性机会 的港股服务类消费；2）进口替代逻辑下的医药及港股硬科技，如半导体及 AI 链；3）南向定价权较高、盈利预期稳定的红利方向，仍可作为底仓配置。 一季度 GDP 超预期，国内经济基本盘仍稳固 国内方面，一季度 GDP 实际增长实现良好开局。一方面，"抢出口"效应 或支撑出口保持较快增长，且进口增速回落，贸易顺差对名义 GDP 增速的 贡献进一步提高；另一方面，考虑到去年同期高基数及闰年效应，消费在一 季度呈现回升态势亦值得关注。单月来看，今年开复工偏后置，叠加 1-2 月 闰年高基数影响消退，3 月生 ...

证券研究报告 宏观 中国对美关税上升下的进口与替代 华泰研究 2025 年 4 月 21 日│中国内地 专题研究 研究员 易峘 evayi@htsc.com 反制措施对中国整体物价水平的影响可能较为温和，然而，短期内自美进 口规模较大、以及对美进口依赖度较高的行业或面临局部"堵点"和阶段 性通胀压力。从绝对规模看，去年中国自美进口的电子机械、农产品、化工、 能源等产品规模均超过 1500 亿元；从相对规模看，中国进口的运输设备部 件（如发动机等）和精密仪器中约五分之一来自美国，尤其是仪表仪器、以 及铁路、船舶和航天制造业的自美进口规模分别占该行业营收的 6.5%、 4.3%，显示对美依赖度相对较高。对于一些核心技术产品而言，进口分流 或国产替代可能需要时间，短期内上述行业或将面临一定的价格上行压力。 结合中国自美进口商品结构，预计对美关税上升将加速农产品、半导体设 备、药品、飞机等领域的进口"分流"，以及化工、汽车、半导体等领域的 国产替代。 虽然进口多元化或国产替代将提供一定的缓冲，但中美这全球前两大经济 体间贸易大幅收缩对全球供应链的冲击、及其"蝴蝶效应"值得高度警惕。 2023 年中美两国货物进口与 G ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 3.4 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 3.61%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 630 million RMB, up 5.10% year-over-year, although below the previous forecast of 716 million RMB due to significant declines in the rail transit and industrial software sectors [1][4] - The radar business showed strong growth in 2024, with revenues reaching 2.673 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 20.04%, while the industrial software and smart manufacturing sectors saw a revenue decline of 11.87% [2][3] - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in 2025, driven by increased demand in the international military trade market for air defense and missile defense systems [1][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.4 billion RMB and a net profit of 630 million RMB, with a projected revenue of 4.119 billion RMB for 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 21.13% [6][4] - The radar business is expected to continue its upward trajectory, while the smart rail transit business is facing challenges due to reduced new line constructions [2][3] Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 774 million RMB, 938 million RMB, and 1.106 billion RMB respectively, with a target price set at 27.08 RMB based on a PE ratio of 44 for 2025 [4][8] - The company's PE ratio is projected to decrease from 38.51 in 2023 to 29.81 in 2025, indicating a more attractive valuation over the forecast period [6][4] Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its international market presence, enhancing its influence in high-end radar equipment, and has successfully completed several key projects in aerospace, aviation, and marine sectors [3][2] - The digital transformation efforts in the industrial software sector are expected to accelerate growth, with over 80% of new contracts being for domestically developed software [3][2]

证券研究报告 伟明环保 (603568 CH) 业绩稳步增长，新材料项目投入试生产 目标价 28.39 元 根据新材料项目建设进度，下调高冰镍收入预测，预计公司 2025-2027 年 EPS 分别为 1.88、2.19、2.45 元（2025-2026 年下调 8%、15%）。可比公 司 2025 年 Wind 一致预期 PE 均值为 13.7 倍，考虑公司产能提升驱动固废 收入增长，新能源材料业务成长空间较大，给予公司 2025 年 15.1 倍 PE， 目标价 28.39 元（前值 33.86 元，基于 2025 年 16.6 倍 PE）。 | 华泰研究 | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 4 月 | 20 日│中国内地 | 废物管理 | 伟明环保发布年报，2024 年实现营收 71.71 亿元（yoy+19.03%），归母净 利 27.04 亿元（yoy+31.99%），低于我们预期（28.28 亿元），主要系项目 运营收入增速低于预期所致。Q4 实现营收 11.25 亿元（yoy-19.81%， qoq-41.76%），归母净利 5.93 亿元（yoy+2 ...

证券研究报告 公司发布年报：2024 年实现营收 215 亿，同比-8.60%，归母净利 7.72 亿， 同比-34.51%，扣非净利 4.81 亿，同比-44.9%，归母净利基本符合我们的 预期（7.6 亿），其中 24Q4 实现营收 56.3 亿，同比-14.4%，归母净利 1.17 亿，同比-59.7%。我们认为公司在经过两年智能化改造投入后，25 年有望 迎来资本开支影响减弱、产能利用率恢复爬坡趋势、机器人应用降本增效阶 段。25Q1 经营需求显著优于行业，新签订单量预计 137 万吨，同比+13.9%， 已体现出龙头市场拿单优势，25Q1 实现产量 104.91 万吨，同比+14.3%， 产量显著提升则验证了产能利用率继续爬坡能力，未来有望进一步受益于关 税扰动下的内需提振，维持"买入"评级。 Q4 吨毛利环比改善，受减值影响吨净利承压 24 年新签合同额 283 亿，同比-4.76%，考虑到钢价下行影响，若按照披露 的重大项目销售均价测算，24 年新签订单量 137 万吨，同比+3.1%。24 年 钢结构产量 451 万吨，同比+0.51%，产能利用率同比+0.3pct 至 86.7%， 销量 4 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 30.68 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the implementation of national virtual power plant policies, with its EMS 2.0 and 3.0 businesses anticipated to accelerate in 2025 [1][4]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 1.063 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 5.24%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 169.83 million RMB, down 15.68% year-on-year [7]. - The company has shown stable management of expenses, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios for 2024 at 13.84%, 6.04%, and 10.94% respectively [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.063 billion RMB, a decrease of 5.24% year-on-year, and a net profit of 169.83 million RMB, down 15.68% year-on-year [7]. - The fourth quarter revenue was 248 million RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 0.32%, but net profit decreased by 58.70% year-on-year to 11.37 million RMB [1]. Business Segmentation - Domestic revenue for 2024 is expected to be 1.019 billion RMB, down 6.41% year-on-year, while overseas revenue is projected at 44 million RMB, up 33.22% year-on-year [2]. - The company’s product revenue in various segments showed declines, with power monitoring and substation monitoring systems down 12.12% and energy efficiency management products down 0.57% [2]. Cost Management and Profitability - The company maintained stable expense ratios, with a slight decrease in sales expenses and a minor increase in management expenses [3]. - The net profit margin, excluding other income and investment income, improved to approximately 18.74%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The national policy on virtual power plants aims for a regulation capacity of over 20 million kilowatts by 2027 and over 50 million kilowatts by 2030, which is expected to create significant growth opportunities for the company [4]. - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 295 million RMB, 384 million RMB, and 502 million RMB respectively, reflecting a recovery trajectory [5][7].

证券研究报告 中国建筑 (601668 CH) 夯实资产，分红稳定能力强 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 18 日│中国内地 | 建筑施工 | 公司发布年报：24 年实现营收 21871 亿，同比-3.46%，实现归母净利/扣非 归母净利 462/416 亿，同比-14.9%/-14.3%，归母净利低于我们预期（539 亿），主要系房建项目减值计提超预期，其中 Q4 实现营收 5606 亿，同比 -5.67%，归母净利润 64.8 亿，同比-38.9%。我们认为一方面未来在稳地产、 稳增长、化债等政策催化下，公司需求端和资产端有望同步改善，另一方面， 公司维持分红能力较强，24 年在利润下滑的情况下维持分红金额 112 亿， 分红比率提升 3.47pct 至 24.29%，根据 4 月 17 日收盘价，股息率 4.9%， 具备较好的红利价值，维持"买入"评级。 房建结构持续优化，能源、环保助力基建订单高增长 分业务看，24 年房建/基建/勘察设计实现营收 13218/5509/108 亿，同比 -4.5%/-1.0% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 7.55 [6][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 9.049 billion in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 11.90%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.996 billion, up 8.28% year-over-year [1][2]. - The growth in revenue and profit is driven by increased business volume, price adjustments, and operational efficiency improvements in its main business segments [2][3]. - The company is expected to continue its revenue and profit growth from 2025 to 2027, supported by increased operational capacity and price hikes [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's wastewater treatment revenue reached RMB 3.641 billion, up 20.4% year-over-year, driven by a 9.72% increase in wastewater treatment volume to 138.4 million tons and higher treatment prices in Chengdu [2]. - The water supply revenue was RMB 2.626 billion, a 7.3% increase, with sales volume of 1.15 billion tons, and a gross margin increase of 1.11 percentage points to 45.57% [2]. - The revenue from waste incineration power generation was RMB 774 million, with a gross margin of 48.1%, reflecting a 7.9 percentage point increase [2]. Cost and Cash Flow - The company reported an increase in R&D expenses to RMB 53 million, primarily due to more R&D projects [3]. - Financial expenses rose to RMB 391 million, mainly due to interest expenses from completed projects [3]. - The net operating cash flow for 2024 was RMB 3.681 billion, an increase of 8.61% year-over-year, with a dividend per share (DPS) of RMB 0.187, up 10% year-over-year [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected EPS of RMB 0.74, RMB 0.81, and RMB 0.88 for the respective years, reflecting downward adjustments of 6% and 8% for 2025 and 2026 [4]. - The target price of RMB 7.55 is based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10.2 times for 2025, aligning with the average PE of comparable companies [4][11].

证券研究报告 国泰集团 (603977 CH) 商誉计提压制全年利润,看好长期成长 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 18 日│中国内地 | 航空航天 | 国泰集团 24 年实现营收 23.54 亿元（yoy-7.34%），归母净利 1.81 亿元（较 23 年调整后 yoy-40.84%）。其中 Q4 实现营收 6.51 亿元（yoy-10.87%， qoq+12.78%），归母净利-3777.68 万元（yoy-147.29%，qoq-146.06%）。 业绩低于预期（前次 24 年归母净利润预测值为 3.38 亿元），主要系控股子 公司太格时代 2024 年计提商誉减值准备 1.15 亿元，同时 24 年民爆需求偏 弱。我们认为随着公司含能材料产线顺利推进，以及赣粤运河等基建项目驱 动民爆产品需求向上，公司长期成长空间广阔，维持"买入"评级。 民爆产品：工业炸药销量保持平稳，毛利率有所提升 1）工业包装炸药：24 年销量 12.33 万吨（yoy+0.24%），营收 7.59 亿元 （yoy-3.74%），销售单 ...

证券研究报告 晨化股份 (300610 CH) 24 年净利增长，在建项目稳步推进 | 华泰研究 | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 4 月 | 18 日│中国内地 | 化学原料 | 公司发布 24 年年报与 25 年一季报，全年实现营收 9 亿元，yoy-2%，归母 净利 0.8 亿元（扣非后 0.5 亿元），yoy+39%（扣非后 yoy+72%）；Q4 营收 2 亿元，同环比+7%/+0.3%，归母净利 0.2 亿元，同环比-20%/-38%。25Q1 公司实现收入 2 亿元，同环比-4%/-4%，实现归母净利 0.27 亿元，同环比 +23%/+57%，与我们业绩前瞻净利基本一致（0.25 亿元）。预计伴随下游 需求修复以及公司在建项目逐步贡献增量业绩，公司长期业绩仍有增长空 间。维持"增持"评级。 24 年聚醚胺 D230 持续承压，公司调整生产结构止损增利 2024 年公司表面活性剂/阻燃剂/硅橡胶实现销量 6.8/1.5/0.4 万吨，同比 +5%/+13%/-12%；对应收入 7.2/1.2/0.6 亿元，同比-2%/+7%/-18%；对应 毛利率 ...