Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative outlook for the freight industry, particularly in the Transpacific tradelane due to anticipated declines in trade volumes following US tariff increases [1][2]. Core Insights - Q1 freight volume data showed positive growth, with ocean volumes up approximately 5% and China port volumes up 10% year-over-year. However, this growth is expected to decline as frontloading of US imports is likely to reverse [1]. - The report anticipates a decline in ocean freight rates driven by reduced Transpacific volumes, with carriers expected to cut capacity by at least 5% globally [2][3]. - The air cargo sector is also projected to experience declining volumes, with significant drops noted in key markets such as Memphis and Europe [18][20][22]. Summary by Sections Freight - Q1 benefited from frontloading, but the outlook is weaker moving forward, with US retailers forecasting a mid-single-digit year-over-year import decline by June [1][13]. - Ocean freight rates are expected to decline further, influenced by the anticipated drop in volumes and subsequent capacity reductions by carriers [2][3]. Air Freight - Air freight volume growth is slowing, with new orders and inventory ratios indicating weaker demand trends [18][20]. - Cargo volumes at major European hubs have decreased year-over-year, reflecting broader trends in air cargo [22][25]. Shipping - The report highlights falling freight rates, particularly in the Transpacific and Atlantic routes, with spot rates expected to continue their downward trend [80][82][88]. - The report notes that charter rates have risen, but scrapping of vessels remains low, indicating a potential buffer for carriers as demand softens [101][103]. Travel - There is uncertainty regarding demand outlook in the travel sector, with a noted decline in foreign arrivals to the US and weaker trends in European short-haul travel [4][9]. - The report suggests that significant declines in travel demand are unlikely unless employment levels fall [9].

2025年4月6日 | 9:03AM HKT 大中华区科技: 关税 - 下调30家企业的盈利预测和目标价格 美国总统特朗普于4月2日签署行政令，对180多个国家加征10%至50%的额外关税 （新闻链接，高盛宏观经济研究报告）。我们预计成本上升可能导致：(1) 需求走弱： 品牌客户通过提高售价将关税转嫁给终端消费者，导致出货量或收入下降；(2) 利润率 承压：品牌客户从其他方面节省成本，致使产品规格升级放缓（这也可能导致需求走 弱）或挤压供应链利润率。我们分析了所覆盖企业，并将30家企业的盈利预测下调了 0.1%至9%，将目标价下调了0.2%至9%，从而反映关税影响。 关税对不同产品板块的影响： 在本报告中，我们重点列出了大中华区科技企业的美国业务收入占比（图表 1）、各 地区产能分布（图表 1）以及30家企业的盈利预测和目标价格调整。更多分析请参见 报告：GC Tech: Tariffs announced on Mexico/ China /Canada。 盈利预测调整框架：(1) 美国终端市场占比：我们估测每家企业最终产品在美国市场上 的收入占比：AI服务器供应链、美国品牌（如苹果、惠普、戴尔）和低地球轨 ...

摘要 问答 高盛：美国关税对亚洲经济的影响：增长、通胀和市场反应 20250403 白宫最近宣布征收关税将对亚洲产生哪些广泛影响？ 白宫最近宣布的关税是近一个世纪以来关税的最大幅度增长，从亚洲的角度来 看，情况比预期的要糟糕。除了遵守与加拿大和墨西哥签署的 USMCA 贸易协定 的国家外，美国政府将对所有国家征收 10% 的关税。此外，关税将根据外国对 美国的贸易顺差计算，这意味着顺差越大，关税就越高。与其他地区相比，亚 洲经济体往往对美国拥有巨大的贸易顺差，因此这些关税对亚洲经济体的打击 更大。虽然大多数人预计关税范围可能在 10-20%，但加拿大和墨西哥面临的关 税低于预期，合规贸易实际上为零。按美国进口加权后，新的平均关税税率增 加了 18.3%，但由于产品排除，实际税率可能在 12.6% 左右。钢铁、铝、汽车、 半导体和药品等某些产品类别有特定的现有关税或即将实施的关税，不会立即 受到这一新公告的影响。例如，中国在今年早些时候已经征收了 20% 的关税， 现在又面临额外的关税。总而言之，除加拿大和墨西哥外，所有国家的关税下 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海 ...

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on gold while being cautious on oil and copper prices, reflecting a mixed investment rating across commodities [2][3][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights the direct impact of announced and expected tariffs on US industrial metals and the indirect effect on commodities due to weaker global growth, leading to bearish oil and bullish gold sentiments [2][3]. - It emphasizes that the US reciprocal tariffs will primarily affect commodities through their negative economic growth impact rather than direct tariff imposition [3][6]. - The report suggests that the recent sell-off in gold presents an attractive entry point for long positions, supported by ongoing central bank buying and increased ETF demand amid recession fears [17]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact on Commodities - Tariffs on US imports of steel and aluminum are expected to remain, with copper likely to be included later this year, while energy and gold are exempt from these tariffs [2][3][4]. - The report anticipates that the tariffs will have a significant indirect negative impact on global economic growth, which is expected to weigh on oil demand and prices [2][11]. Oil Market Outlook - The report has lowered its December 2025 Brent/WTI crude oil price forecasts to $66/$62 per barrel from $71/$67 previously, citing a larger-than-expected increase in oil supply from OPEC and reduced oil demand growth expectations [11][12]. - The report indicates that the risks to the oil price forecast are skewed to the downside, particularly for 2026, due to recession risks and increased OPEC+ supply [12]. Industrial Metals Analysis - The report maintains a cautious near-term view on copper prices, with potential for prices to dip below $9,000 per ton in 2Q2025 if retaliatory tariffs escalate [15]. - It notes that existing tariffs on steel and aluminum are likely to keep US industrial metals prices higher compared to the rest of the world, but the overall demand outlook remains weak [15]. Gold Market Insights - Following the recent tariffs announcement, gold prices have seen a modest decline, but the report views this as an opportunity for investors to establish long positions [16][17]. - The year-end forecast for gold is maintained at $3,300 per ounce, with a range of $3,250 to $3,520, indicating upside risks to the forecast [17].

4 April 2025 | 5:59PM EDT US Weekly Kickstart What to watch during the 1Q 2025 earnings season David J. Kostin +1(212)902-6781 | david.kostin@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ben Snider +1(212)357-1744 | ben.snider@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ryan Hammond +1(212)902-5625 | ryan.hammond@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jenny Ma +1(212)357-5775 | jenny.ma@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daniel Chavez +1(212)357-7657 | daniel.chavez@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Kartik Jayachandran +1(212)855-7744 | kartik.jaya ...

4 April 2025 | 10:51AM EDT Weekly Fund Flows How Brief is the Relief? Global fund flows, week ending April 2 | | | Global Fund Flows Summary | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Millions USD | | % AUM | | | | 4wk sum | 2-Apr | 4wk avg | 2-Apr | | Equity | 33,793 | 2,143 | 0.04 | 0.01 | | Fixed Income | 25,546 | 9,932 | 0.08 | 0.12 | | of which: EM | -1,407 | 1,163 | -0.07 | 0.23 | | Money Markets | 4,821 | 22,536 | 0.01 | 0.23 | | FX Flows* | 23,204 | 11,987 | 0.05 | 0.10 | *Cross-border fund flows, ex ...

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the December 2025 Brent and WTI price forecasts by $5 to $66 and $62 respectively, and the December 2026 forecasts by $6 to $62 and $59 respectively [2][4][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights two key downside risks: tariff escalation and higher OPEC+ supply, which are contributing to the price downgrades [2][7]. - Global oil demand growth is now expected to be only 0.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025 and 0.7 mb/d in 2026, down from previous expectations of 0.9 mb/d [16][19]. - The OPEC+ countries have decided to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day (kb/d) in May, significantly higher than the previously guided 135 kb/d, reflecting low inventories and a shift in market equilibrium [21][22]. - The report no longer forecasts a price range due to expected elevated price volatility driven by recession risks [2][8]. Summary by Sections Price Forecast Adjustments - The December 2025 Brent and WTI forecasts have been reduced to $66 and $62 respectively, with annual averages now at $69 for Brent and $66 for WTI in 2025 [2][7]. - The December 2026 forecasts are now $62 for Brent and $59 for WTI, which are below the forward curve implied averages [11][39]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Global oil demand is projected to grow by only 0.6 mb/d in 2025 and 0.7 mb/d in 2026, reflecting a reduction of nearly 0.4 mb/d in 2025Q4 and 0.5 mb/d in 2026Q4 [16][19]. - The increase in OPEC+ production is expected to contribute $2-3 to the December 2025 price downgrade [9][21]. Market Volatility and Hedging Recommendations - The report suggests that implied volatility remains underpriced, and recommends oil producers to hedge against further medium-term price declines [28][29]. - It is advised that refiners hedge deferred refined product margins, especially for complex refined products, due to the resilience of these margins despite recessionary concerns [37].

Investment Rating - The report highlights a median forward 12-month P/E of 15X for China internet companies, compared to 22X for US counterparts, indicating a potential undervaluation in the sector [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a shift in focus from AI infrastructure to AI applications, with expectations for continued investor interest driven by upcoming model launches and AI agents [2][11]. - Key stock ideas are categorized by mega-cap and large/SMID companies, with notable mentions including JD at 9X 2025 P/E and PDD at 10X 2025 P/E, both identified as solid growth businesses still within 'value' territory [1][19]. - The report identifies three main investor debates: the current state of the AI trade, the focus on domestic consumption proxies, and navigating geopolitical events affecting companies like TikTok and PDD [11][12]. Summary by Sub-Sectors eCommerce - JD is expected to benefit from a government trade-in program, projecting double-digit growth for Q1 2025, while PDD is anticipated to enjoy easier comparisons later in the year [11][16]. - The competitive landscape is normalizing, with JD's unique 1P model and supply chain positioning it as a major beneficiary [17]. AI and Technology - The report notes a significant increase in AI-related capex investments among hyperscalers, with a projected 26% year-over-year growth in 2025 [16]. - The race to develop consumer-facing AI applications is ongoing, with ByteDance leading the way with 32 AI applications launched in the past year [13]. Gaming - The gaming segment is described as relatively healthy, with innovative gameplay enhancing pricing power and an increasing adoption of AI applications in game development [16]. Local Services and Mobility - Meituan is highlighted as a dominant player in food delivery, with stable EBIT margins expected in Q1 2025 [18]. - Full Truck Alliance is noted for its strong order volume growth in freight matching [18]. Data Centers and Cloud - The demand for data centers is entering a new expansion cycle, driven by AI training and public cloud client needs [19]. Advertising - The report anticipates improvements in monetization through AI-powered ad tech, with Tencent positioned favorably due to its Weixin ecosystem [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating across equity regions to maximize diversification, with an Overweight (OW) stance on bonds and an Underweight (UW) on credit [3][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a cross-asset repricing of growth and inflation due to rising tariff risks, leading to a more defensive investment stance [1][7]. - US equity strategists have reduced their S&P 500 return forecasts to -5% for 3 months and +6% for 12 months, while European strategists have adjusted their forecasts to -6% for 3 months and +5% for 12 months [3][19]. - The average US tariff rate is expected to rise by 5 percentage points to 15%, with GDP growth revised down to 1% from 1.5% [1][2]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report indicates a mixed economic outlook with US manufacturing PMI falling to 49.8, and inflation expectations rising, leading to a revised recession probability of 35% [1][2]. - European economists have also cut growth forecasts and raised inflation expectations, anticipating an ECB cut in July [1]. Asset Allocation - The report suggests a shift to more defensive positions, recommending selective hedges due to elevated implied volatility across asset classes [3][6]. - The commodities team has raised their 2025 gold forecast to $3,300 per troy ounce, indicating a shift in diversification strategies towards gold and the Yen [2][19]. Market Performance - The report notes a decline in cross-asset pricing of growth across regions, with credit repricing growth risks more clearly [2][19]. - The Dollar has become more sensitive to the S&P 500, reducing its diversification potential, while gold and Yen have emerged as key diversifiers [2][19].