食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 舍得酒业（600702.SH） Q3 营收降幅环比扩大，关注后续改善弹性 2025 年 11 月 03 日 投资评级：增持（维持） | 日期 | 2025/10/31 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 62.09 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 86.25/48.25 | | 总市值(亿元) | 206.61 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 206.52 | | 总股本(亿股) | 3.33 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 3.33 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 229.87 | 股价走势图 2025 前三季度公司营收 37.0 亿、同比-17.0%，归母净利润 4.7 亿、同比-29.4%； 其中 Q3 营收 10.0 亿，同比-15.9%; 归母净利润 0.3 亿，同比-63.2%。收入业绩 下滑幅度超预期。考虑公司主动释放渠道库存压力，我们下调 2025-2027 年盈利 预测，预计 2025 年-2027 年归母净利润分别为 5.0（-1.9）亿元、6.2（-2.2）亿元、 8.3（-2.6）亿元，同比分别+43.3%、+24.1%、+35.6%，EPS 分 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.62 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.51%. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 516 million yuan, up 23.71% year-on-year [5][8] - The company is experiencing strong growth in its core laser cutting business, driven by high power and export demand. The AI welding segment is also accelerating, with solutions provided to over 150 welding equipment manufacturers [8] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 1.11 billion, 1.42 billion, and 1.76 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 36, 28, and 22 [8] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 78.09%, down 3.53 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 57.19%, down 2.23 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The comprehensive expense ratio for Q1-3 2025 was 20.56%, a decrease of 0.58 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost control [8] - The company’s total revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.18 billion, 2.72 billion, and 3.38 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 25.6%, 25.0%, and 24.0% respectively [7][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Rongsheng Petrochemical is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - In Q3 2025, Rongsheng Petrochemical reported a revenue of 227.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.09%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.888 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.34%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 1.069 billion yuan, up 55.37% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the revenue was 79.185 billion yuan, down 5.67% year-on-year but up 7.51% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 0.286 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 1427.94% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1992.91% [5][6][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 227.81 billion yuan, with a net profit of 0.888 billion yuan and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 1.069 billion yuan. The Q3 performance showed a significant recovery in profitability, with net profit growth driven by improved refining margins despite a slight decline in revenue [5][6]. Market Conditions - The average WTI crude oil price in Q3 2025 was 64.97 USD/barrel, reflecting a 2.03% increase quarter-on-quarter. The stabilization of crude oil prices is expected to enhance the company's profitability quality [6]. Project Development - The company is actively promoting project construction, focusing on extending and supplementing the industrial chain, increasing chemical production, and enhancing product value. Key projects include the 500,000-ton differentiated fiber project and the Zhoushan new materials project, which are progressing steadily [7]. Strategic Partnerships - In 2023, Saudi Aramco acquired a strategic stake of 10% plus one share in Rongsheng Petrochemical, establishing a foundation for deep cooperation. Discussions are ongoing regarding the acquisition of a 50% stake in Saudi Aramco's Jubail refinery and potential collaborations on upgrading existing facilities [8][9]. Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 2.163 billion yuan, 3.895 billion yuan, and 7.707 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 47.70X, 26.49X, and 13.39X. The "Buy" rating is maintained based on these projections [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [2][5]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant revenue growth, with a 17.47% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 8.27 billion yuan, and a 69.66% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, amounting to 603 million yuan [4][5]. - The company's profitability has improved due to optimized revenue structure and cost reduction measures, resulting in a gross margin increase of 2.45 percentage points year-on-year to 21.75% and a net profit margin increase of 2.46 percentage points to 8.83% [4][5]. - The company is focusing on strategic investments and acquisitions to sustain growth, particularly in emerging fields like robotics, with a joint venture established to enhance capabilities in humanoid robot controller hardware design [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 8.27 billion yuan, with a quarterly revenue of 2.82 billion yuan in Q3, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.25% [4]. - The net profit for the first three quarters was 603 million yuan, with Q3 net profit reaching 249 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 58.35% [4]. - The company’s operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities increasing by 34.19% year-on-year [4][5]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11.65 billion yuan, 14.61 billion yuan, and 18.27 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 789 million yuan, 1.03 billion yuan, and 1.28 billion yuan [6][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.85 yuan in 2025, 1.11 yuan in 2026, and 1.39 yuan in 2027, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 60.30, 46.27, and 36.96, respectively [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future investment returns [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a robust Q3 performance for 2025, with revenue reaching 96.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.87 billion yuan, up 32.49% year-on-year [1][6]. - The growth is driven by the AI wave in the consumer electronics sector, alongside balanced development across various business segments, leading to optimistic annual performance forecasts [1][2]. - The company anticipates a full-year net profit for 2025 to be between 16.52 billion yuan and 17.19 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.59% to 28.59% [1]. Business Segment Analysis - **Consumer Electronics**: The demand for high-precision, miniaturized components is surging due to the rapid growth of AI terminals. The company is well-positioned as a supplier of complete AI terminal solutions, particularly benefiting from strong iPhone 17 demand [2]. - **Communication and Data Centers**: The company is advancing in high-speed interconnect technologies, with a focus on 448G copper cables and 1.6T optical modules, and is seeing increased market share among leading cloud service providers [2]. - **Automotive**: The company is enhancing its vertical integration capabilities in key areas such as vehicle framework systems and intelligent cockpit systems, with a growing client base among major automotive manufacturers [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 329.06 billion yuan, 408.06 billion yuan, and 472.18 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 17.07 billion yuan, 21.71 billion yuan, and 26.06 billion yuan [3][4]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with revenue growth rates projected at 22.4% for 2025 and 24.0% for 2026 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [2][9] Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 2.439 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.67%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 145 million yuan, up 6.96% year-on-year [5] - The company's gross margin improved to 34.92%, an increase of 2.13 percentage points compared to the same period last year, driven by product structure optimization and the maturity of self-developed products [6] - AI product commercialization is accelerating, with AI business revenue reaching approximately 210 million yuan in the first three quarters, and a target of 300 million yuan in AI revenue for the current year [7] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue from industrial digitalization reached 833 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.58%, while financial digitalization revenue was 577 million yuan, up 4.55% [6] - The company reported a net profit margin of 6.13% for the first three quarters, an increase of 0.14 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.25, 0.30, and 0.36 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 72.4, 60.6, and 50.0 [8][11]

银行 2025 年 11 月 3 日 常熟银行(601128.SH) 息差边际企稳，拨备水平小幅下行 强烈推荐（维持） 股价：7.05 元 主要数据 | 行业 | 银行 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.csrcbank.com | | 大股东/持股 | 交通银行股份有限公司/9.01% | | 实际控制人 | | | 总股本(百万股) | 3,317 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 3,317 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | | | 总市值（亿元） | 234 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 234 | | 每股净资产(元) | 8.97 | | 资产负债率(%) | 91.9 | 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】常熟银行（601128.SH）*半年报点评* 中 期分红抬升，关注转债进程*强烈推荐20250813 证券分析师 | 袁喆奇 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520080003 | | | YUANZHEQI052@pingan.com.cn | | 许淼 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S106052502 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 15.49% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 50.53%. However, there was a quarter-on-quarter revenue improvement of 23.12% in Q3 due to the recovery of major customer projects and orders [7] - The company is increasing its investment in its Vietnam factory, with an additional investment of $30 million announced on October 17, 2025, indicating confidence in future overseas demand [7] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 283 million, 350 million, and 463 million yuan respectively, with an expected EPS of 0.65, 0.81, and 1.07 yuan [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 2,983 million yuan, with a growth rate of -6.20%. For 2024, revenue is expected to be 3,015 million yuan, growing by 1.06%, and for 2025, it is estimated at 3,058 million yuan, with a growth rate of 1.42% [6][8] - The net profit for 2023 is forecasted at 352 million yuan, with a significant drop of 36.64% in 2025, followed by a recovery in 2026 and 2027 with growth rates of 23.79% and 32.31% respectively [6][8] - The company's PE ratio is projected to be 44.34x for 2025, decreasing to 27.07x by 2027, indicating a potential improvement in valuation over time [6][8] Operational Insights - The gross margin for Q3 was 32.48%, down by 3.03 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to weak demand and temporary price pressures [7] - The company is focusing on its proprietary brand of robots, particularly in logistics and care services, and has gained interest from major clients [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.695 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.47%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 128 million yuan, up 32.45% year-on-year [5]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.111 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.02%, with a net profit of 67 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 22.71% year-on-year [5]. - The company's Q3 gross margin was 21.41%, down 5.90 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a shift in customer structure towards lower-margin strategic industry clients [6]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory in the MRO industry, with projected revenues of 4.52 billion yuan and 6.03 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 25.3% and 33.4% [7]. Financial Performance - The company’s total market capitalization is 6.7 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 410 million shares [4]. - The company’s PE ratio is 29.60, with a projected PE of 25.4X and 21.4X for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4][7]. - The operating cash flow for Q3 was 117 million yuan, an increase of 59 million yuan year-on-year [6]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for the company's revenue and net profit for the upcoming years is as follows: - 2025E Revenue: 4.52 billion yuan, Net Profit: 263.47 million yuan - 2026E Revenue: 6.03 billion yuan, Net Profit: 312.73 million yuan [9][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company has shown stable growth in its business, with a revenue of 4.4% year-on-year increase in the first three quarters of 2025, amounting to 4.28 billion yuan, and a net profit of 0.3% year-on-year, totaling 449 million yuan [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.00 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 12.5%, which enhances shareholder returns [4] - Despite a challenging consumption environment, the company has implemented effective cost control measures, maintaining a gross profit margin of 39.8% and a net profit margin of 17.9% [6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, and a net profit of 410 million yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year [4] - The food business generated revenue of 1.91 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, with significant increases in frozen food and other food categories [5] - The restaurant business, however, faced challenges, with revenue declining by 2.5% year-on-year to 380 million yuan in Q3 2025 [5] Cost Management and Profitability - The company has effectively controlled costs, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing improvements [6] - The net profit margin has increased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, indicating robust profitability despite external pressures [6] Future Earnings Forecast - The company has revised its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 510 million, 540 million, and 570 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.90, 0.95, and 1.00 yuan [4]