多重拐点共振，内外驱动发展 ——东方证券推荐报告 投资要点 ❑ 一句话逻辑：东方证券是上海国资旗下第二大券商，迎接内生驱动与外延整合 机遇。 ❑ 超预期点分析 1.超预期点：治理端董事会主导强化并打开外延整合想象空间；业务端资管修复 先行，自营固收结构对冲与权益再扩张接力，叠加历史风险敞口持续出清，数字 化转型机遇下迎接市场表现释放。 2）去年以来，并购重组逻辑预期的券商都有过阶段性领涨板块的表现，甚至单 日涨停的表现，东方证券若未来产生外延扩张预期，则期待其市场表现。 2.超预期驱动因素与机理 1）市场与板块层面：2025 年券商板块呈现盈利改善但股价滞涨特征，隐含的估 值修复弹性被后移；若风险偏好与成交活跃度回升，券商作为高 β 板块更容易出 现戴维斯双击。 2）政策层面：监管鼓励松绑优质券商杠杆、业务创新与提升行业高质量发展， 同时并购重组规则持续优化，行业集中度依托成功案例提升路径更清晰，头部与 优质券商有望受益于杠杆与创新边际放松的政策周期。 3）个股层面：①治理结构拐点：以龚德雄为首的高管更迭推动董事会中心化与 专业化决策进一步强化，经营效率与资本运用有望提升。②外延整合预期差：公 司战略目标指向 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the company's dividend yield as a safety margin, with a strong operational capability that reduces total costs. The liquid milk business is expected to benefit from a low base and low inventory, indicating an upcoming industry cycle turning point [3][4]. - The long-term strategy focuses on high-quality growth, with profit growth expected to outpace revenue growth. The company aims to optimize its product structure and enhance profitability through a platform strategy [4][23]. Company Investment Logic - **Short-term Logic**: High dividend commitments provide a safety margin, and profit recovery is exceeding expectations. The company is expected to benefit from a favorable macro environment and improved operational efficiency [12]. - **Long-term Logic**: The company is transitioning towards high-quality growth, with a focus on deep processing and functional nutrition products. The liquid milk business remains a strong foundation, while the company aims to achieve significant revenue in deep processing within five years [23][24]. Business Segmentation - The company is diversifying its business structure, focusing on new growth areas such as functional nutrition and deep processing of dairy products. The liquid milk, milk powder, and cold drink segments are all leading in their respective markets [5][42]. - The liquid milk segment is the largest revenue contributor, while the milk powder segment has shown the fastest growth and highest profit margins, becoming a core growth engine for the company [48][53]. Market Perspective - Contrary to market views that the dairy industry has entered a mature phase, the report argues that the company still possesses growth potential due to structural opportunities and a shift towards high-end products [6][66]. - The recovery of raw milk prices is expected to benefit leading dairy companies, alleviating competitive pressures and improving profit margins [67]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1189.9 billion, 1250.4 billion, and 1302.6 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 113 billion, 125.3 billion, and 134.4 billion yuan. The report suggests that the company's high dividend yield and recovery in milk prices will support its growth trajectory [6][68].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][10] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve stable revenue growth over the next 25 years, driven by new markets and new products [1][5] - For 2025, the company anticipates a revenue increase of 18.2% year-on-year, reaching 1.14 billion yuan, and a net profit growth of 66.2%, amounting to 185 million yuan [3][5] - The company is transitioning from an analog chip supplier to a system-level power solution provider, with significant investments in R&D and new product launches [5][6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 780 million yuan - 2024: 965 million yuan - 2025: 1.14 billion yuan - 2026: 1.46 billion yuan - 2027: 1.68 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 8% for 2023, 24% for 2024, 18% for 2025, 28% for 2026, and 15% for 2027 [2][7] - Net profit projections are: - 2023: 59 million yuan - 2024: 111 million yuan - 2025: 185 million yuan - 2026: 203 million yuan - 2027: 233 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are expected to be -34% for 2023, 87% for 2024, 66% for 2025, 10% for 2026, and 15% for 2027 [2][7] Market and Product Development - The company is focusing on emerging markets such as servers, communications, industrial motors, energy storage, and new energy vehicles, with expected revenue growth of approximately 50% in these sectors [5][6] - New product categories, including DC-DC, Driver, Digital PMIC, Power Device, and Power Module, are projected to see a revenue increase of about 39% [5] - The company has launched 12 core new products aimed at AI computing energy, completing a full product line layout for server power solutions [5][6]

发行规模有限，对短期股东回报影响较小，长期看则为公司构建新的国际业务增长 极、打开长期发展空间。 投资要点： 构建国际业务新增长极 广发证券(000776) 关于广发证券 H 股再融资的点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | 吴浩东(分析师) | 010-83939780 | wuhaodong@gtht.com | S0880524070001 | 本报告导读： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 23,300 | 27,199 | 35,911 | 38,682 | 40,430 | | (+/-)% | -7.3% | 16.7% | 32.0% | 7.7% | 4.5% | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai [2][7] Core Insights - Guizhou Moutai has enhanced consumer reach through the launch of its i Moutai platform, addressing consumer pain points and establishing a four-dimensional channel system that benefits government, company, shareholders, distributors, and consumers [1][6] - The company is experiencing strong demand as it approaches the Spring Festival, with low channel inventory levels, which supports the ongoing market reform and cash returns [1][6][7] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report reiterates a "Strong Buy" rating, indicating confidence in the company's growth potential and market performance [2][7] Company Strategy - The launch of 500ml Flying Moutai and premium products on the i Moutai platform aims to improve consumer access and address the mismatch between supply and demand [6] - The new sales model combines self-sale, distribution, agency, and consignment, creating a win-win situation for all stakeholders involved [6] Market Dynamics - The i Moutai platform is expected to strengthen pricing power and mitigate concerns over wholesale price fluctuations, as it provides a reliable price benchmark for consumers [6] - Current market conditions show robust consumer demand, particularly among younger demographics, with low inventory levels reported across various sales channels [6][7] Financial Projections - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 71.54, 73.49, and 76.96 yuan respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19x for 2026 [7][10] - Revenue and net profit are projected to grow steadily, with total revenue expected to reach 182.49 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5% [10][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company has opened its first "Gujing Liquor Shop" in Bozhou, Anhui Province, on December 12, 2025, marking its entry into the scattered liquor market. This transformation is seen as beneficial, as it allows the company to provide high-quality products at competitive prices to meet diverse consumer demands in a rational consumption environment [2][15]. - The new shop offers a variety of liquor options, including different types of Baijiu and local specialty wines, with flexible pricing starting from 2.9 yuan for 50ml to 29.9 yuan [6][15]. - The company aims to tap into the younger consumer demographic by lowering the barriers to purchase through community-based sales and offering unique low-alcohol products [2][15]. - The company has significantly increased its production capacity over the past decade, with output rising from 65,700 tons in 2014 to 128,000 tons in 2024, and plans to reach an annual capacity of 150,000 tons [18][23]. - The report anticipates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) will be 8.15 yuan and 8.44 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17 and 16 times [23]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The opening of the "Gujing Liquor Shop" represents the company's first foray into the scattered liquor market, providing a range of products at flexible pricing [6][15]. Market Performance - The company is positioned as a leading Baijiu brand in Anhui, leveraging its strong brand recognition to innovate and connect with consumers [2][15]. Production Capacity - The company has expanded its production capacity significantly, which supports its entry into the scattered liquor market and aligns with consumer demand for high-quality products [18][23]. Consumer Demand - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior towards rational consumption, with a growing preference for quality and brand over low prices in the liquor market [23].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate-A" investment rating for the company [5][19]. Core Insights - The company, a leading solid waste treatment platform under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, has shown steady growth in performance over the years, with revenue expected to grow from 690 million yuan in 2020 to 1.66 billion yuan in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.5% [1][11]. - The company has a strong technological advantage in waste incineration, with proprietary technologies that enhance operational efficiency and reduce environmental costs [2][11]. - The company is actively expanding its business through mergers and acquisitions, with a total capacity expected to reach 20,900 tons per day, enhancing its operational synergies [3][11]. - The report anticipates significant revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 1.86 billion yuan in 2025 and 2.16 billion yuan in 2026, alongside a net profit of 394 million yuan and 476 million yuan respectively [11][14]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was established in 2012 and is controlled by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, focusing on solid waste treatment and expanding into heating and sludge disposal [1]. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.40 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.16 billion yuan in 2026, with a net profit increase from 270 million yuan to 476 million yuan during the same period [12][22]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of at least 60% of net profit, reflecting confidence in its cash flow [10][11]. Business Segments - The main business segment, waste incineration power generation, is expected to generate revenues of 14.09 billion yuan in 2025, with a gross margin of 51% [17]. - The project construction segment is anticipated to decline, with revenues projected at 2.13 billion yuan in 2025 [17]. - The environmental equipment sales and technical services segment is expected to grow significantly, with revenues projected at 2.16 billion yuan in 2025 [17]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is expanding its international presence, particularly in Southeast Asia and along the Belt and Road Initiative, which is expected to provide new growth momentum [3][11]. - The report highlights the company's competitive edge in technology and operational efficiency, positioning it well for future growth in the solid waste treatment industry [2][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as the first investment recommendation [1]. Core Insights - The company, a global leader in fuel systems, is actively transitioning towards new energy sectors, including aerospace and robotics, with significant overseas expansion [4][11]. - The company is the third largest global manufacturer of fuel systems and has established a strong presence with 27 production bases and 7 engineering centers across 11 countries [4][10]. - The revenue forecast for the company shows a steady growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 90.7 billion, 100.0 billion, and 108.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [13]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 1988, the company specializes in automotive energy storage and thermal management systems, holding a leading position in the domestic market and ranking third globally in fuel systems [4]. - Major clients include over 60 brands such as Volkswagen, Ford, and Toyota, with fuel tank revenue projected to be 75.2 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 93.1% of total revenue [4]. Product Development - The company is advancing in hybrid high-pressure fuel systems, with orders for these systems surpassing traditional fuel systems for the first time in 2024 [4]. - Development of automotive thermal management systems and battery pack housings is ongoing, with successful trials and new project acquisitions [5]. - The company is also focusing on fuel cell hydrogen storage systems, achieving significant advancements in product certification and market readiness [6][7]. Market Performance - The company’s performance is bolstered by the rising sales of hybrid vehicles, with PHEV sales expected to reach 3.697 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [8]. - The export of passenger vehicles is projected to grow significantly, providing structural growth opportunities for the company’s fuel systems business [8]. International Expansion - The company has a well-established overseas production capacity, with significant growth in revenue from international markets, which accounted for 42.6% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [10]. - The company’s overseas subsidiaries have shown double-digit growth in supply performance, particularly in North America [10]. Acquisition and New Ventures - The acquisition of Winshang Technology, a leader in rotary transformers, for 5.78 billion yuan, aims to expand into aerospace and robotics sectors [11]. - Winshang Technology is recognized for its high-precision rotary transformers, with a projected market growth rate of 15.3% from 2025 to 2031 [11]. Financial Projections - Revenue and net profit forecasts indicate a positive growth outlook, with net profits expected to reach 5.8 billion, 6.5 billion, and 7.2 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [13]. - The company maintains a stable gross margin, with slight fluctuations projected over the coming years [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The company, 壹网壹创, has a solid foundation in its agency business, covering various consumer goods categories, and has deep collaborations within the Alibaba ecosystem. With the support of AI technology, it is expected to break through performance ceilings [4] - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and net profit CAGR from 2020 to 2024 due to industry factors, but in Q1-Q3 of 2025, it achieved a 4% year-on-year growth in net profit, indicating significant performance improvement. It is anticipated that 2025 will mark a turning point for performance recovery [4] - The company is actively exploring AI applications in specific business scenarios, with expectations for its AI vertical business to enter a high-growth phase in 2026. The commercialization of tools like "Master Student Map" and "Cloud Meeting" is projected to grow sequentially in Q4 2025 [6] - The company is adapting to the trend of e-commerce search evolution from SEO to GEO, establishing a specialized team to seize growth opportunities in the GEO commercialization wave [6] - The company maintains its position as a leading e-commerce agency service provider, consistently recognized as a "Tmall Six-Star Service Provider," with partnerships across various sectors including beauty, personal care, and health products [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 1,236 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of -4.0%. For 2025, the revenue is expected to be 1,164 million, with a growth rate of -5.8%, followed by a recovery to 1,283 million in 2026 (10.2% growth) and 1,418 million in 2027 (10.5% growth) [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 111 million in 2025, with a significant increase to 146 million in 2026 (30.9% growth) and 181 million in 2027 (24.0% growth) [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.47 in 2025 to 0.61 in 2026 and 0.76 in 2027 [5] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 3.8% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026 and 5.5% in 2027 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - Zoomlion is positioned as a leading player in the Chinese engineering machinery sector, with growth potential driven by its diversified focus on engineering machinery, agricultural machinery, and mining machinery [1] - The company is benefiting from a recovery in domestic demand, particularly in non-excavator segments, and is advancing its globalization strategy through overseas direct sales and localized production [1][11] - The company is also focusing on low-valuation humanoid robots, which are expected to contribute to future growth [1][11] Industry and Company Analysis Engineering Machinery Sector - The global engineering machinery market is projected to reach USD 213.5 billion in 2024 and USD 296.1 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 6% from 2024 to 2030 [2] - Domestic recovery in excavators is expected to drive demand for non-excavator machinery, supported by infrastructure and municipal needs [2][3] - The company has a significant market share in various segments, including nearly 50% in the 1000-ton and above crawler crane market [12][24] Agricultural Machinery - The global agricultural machinery market is expected to reach approximately RMB 1.5 trillion in 2024, with China contributing around RMB 300 billion [5] - Emerging markets and green technology are identified as key growth drivers for agricultural machinery [5][25] Mining Machinery - The global mining machinery market is projected to grow from USD 133.1 billion in 2025 to USD 229.2 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 6% [6] - The company is focusing on green, large-scale, and intelligent mining machinery, with significant growth in sales and market penetration [13][26] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 49 billion, 64 billion, and 81 billion from 2025 to 2027, with respective growth rates of 40%, 30%, and 26% [20] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 15, 12, and 9 times, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [20] Globalization and Shareholder Returns - The company plans to issue up to RMB 6 billion in H-share convertible bonds to support its globalization strategy, with 50% of the funds allocated to overseas production and technology development [14][36] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 74% for 2024, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [36]