公 司 研 究 混改效果持续体现，收入和净利润维持增长 柳工(000528) 公司 2026 年年度财务预算议案点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 赵靖博(分析师) | 021-23185625 | zhaojingbo@gtht.com | S0880525040056 | 本报告导读： 目前挖机内销温和复苏，海外销售结构性改善，公司智能化、电动化、全球化布局 完善，混改效果突出，业绩有望持续释放。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 27,519 | 30,063 | 34,368 | 39,305 | 43,184 | | (+/-)% | 3.9% | 9.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company is a leading provider of "laser + intelligent manufacturing" system solutions, with a significant competitive advantage in the optical communication sector, ranking among the top ten globally in optical module business [5] - The optical module market is experiencing robust growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 27% from 2023 to 2029, expanding from a market size of USD 6.25 billion to USD 25.8 billion [13] - The company is expected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with projected revenues of RMB 16.33 billion, RMB 22.14 billion, and RMB 27.56 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 39.4%, 35.6%, and 24.5% [5][30] - The company’s net profit is forecasted to reach RMB 1.86 billion, RMB 2.30 billion, and RMB 2.82 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 52.5%, 23.3%, and 23.0% [5][30] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at RMB 10.21 billion, with a projected increase to RMB 11.71 billion in 2024, and further growth to RMB 16.33 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -15.0%, 14.7%, and 39.4% respectively [4][30] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 21.5% in 2024 to 22.9% in 2025, driven by the increasing sales of high-speed optical modules [5][30] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 12.0% in 2024 to 15.5% in 2025, indicating enhanced profitability [4][30] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company’s optical module business has seen a significant increase in revenue, with a 124% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025, driven by the successful delivery of 400G and 800G modules [5] - The company is strategically positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for optical modules in AI computing and supercomputing scenarios, with expectations of a demand for 40 to 50 million units in overseas markets by 2025 [5][30] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a shift towards higher-speed products, with the company’s 800G modules expected to gain market share as they transition from 400G [5][30]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Insights - The successful grid connection of the second phase of the Guyana solar-storage project and the ongoing progress of overseas green electricity projects are key highlights [8] - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for air pollution control equipment, with a projected net profit growth of 63.15% in 2024 and continued growth in subsequent years [8] - The company has a strong order backlog of 19.7 billion, which is expected to accelerate revenue recognition [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to decline by 7.64% in 2023, followed by a recovery with a growth of 20.74% in 2025 [8][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 508.97 million in 2023, increasing to 1.23 billion by 2025, representing a growth of 48.33% [8][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.40 in 2023 to 0.97 in 2025 [8][9] Market Position - The company is positioned as the largest manufacturer of air pollution control equipment globally, benefiting from market demand driven by new construction and upgrades in the power and non-power sectors [8] - The company has successfully completed five international projects this year, enhancing its strategic layout in the mining equipment sector [8]

2025 年 12 月 30 日 公司研究 COC 批量进入光学领域，新项目陆续投产注入成长动力 ——阿科力（603722.SH）公告点评 要点 事件： 12 月 29 日晚，公司发布公告表示公司研发并生产的环烯烃共聚物 ACOC3030 已通过光学镜头领域客户成型性验证测试，并取得批量订单。 点评： COC 产品进入光学镜头领域，产品迈入放量期。COC 是一种热塑性光学级材料， 具有高透光性、良好的耐温性、优异的加工性能以及低透水率等一系列优点，广 泛应用在光学领域（高端手机摄像镜头、显示屏的导光板和光学膜等）、高端药 品包装及医疗器械等领域。公司于 2025 年 6 月发布公告表示 COC 产品进入正 式生产阶段，解决了 COC 试生产过程中的批次稳定性问题。而此次公告，则标 志着公司 COC 产品成功进入光学镜头领域，为后续产品持续放量奠定良好的基 础。截至目前，公司 COC 产品已进入下游药用包材和光学镜头领域。产能方面， 公司于无锡主基地拥有"年产 10000 吨高透光材料新建项目"该项目包括有 5000 吨/年环烯烃单体和 5000 吨/年环烯烃聚合物产能，同时在湖北潜江基地规划有 年产 3 万吨 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5]. Core Views - The company's performance continues to improve, with significant growth in both ODM and proprietary brand segments, leading to a notable recovery in overall financial results [2][12]. - The revenue and profit outlook has been adjusted, with expected EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.90, 1.32, and 1.73 yuan respectively, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [12]. - The company has established a balanced business structure focusing on ODM while also developing its proprietary brand, achieving profitability in its offline business [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,067 million yuan in 2023 to 1,967 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 13.9% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover from a loss of 77 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 174 million yuan in 2027 [4]. - The gross margin is expected to improve, with a forecasted gross margin of 29.6% in 2025 [12]. Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of 3,084 million yuan, with a share price range over the past 52 weeks between 19.67 and 44.97 yuan [6]. - The company has established strong relationships with clients in various international markets, with overseas revenue accounting for 53.26% of total revenue in the first half of 2025 [12]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 is reported at 6.9%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [12]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from -7.8% in 2024 to 13.6% in 2027 [4][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [3][55]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a rare comprehensive provider of optical interconnection solutions, benefiting significantly from its long-term stable partnership with Google in the MPO field and its strategic layout in active products like optical modules and AOC [3][55]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow rapidly, with projected revenues of 34.52 billion, 69.92 billion, and 120.22 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 3.72 billion, 10.94 billion, and 19.05 billion yuan for the same years [3][55]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company started with PLC optical splitters and has gradually built a complete optical interconnection system solution, targeting telecommunications, data centers, and industrial interconnection fields [13]. - Its product range includes PLC optical splitters, PON optical transceivers, DWDM, AWG, VMUX for telecommunications, and AOC and copper cable products for data centers, covering speeds from 10G to 800G [13]. Market Opportunities - Google is a key beneficiary of the company's offerings, with a strong emphasis on AI commercialization and the urgent need for capacity expansion, aiming to double its computing power every six months [2][37]. - The company has established a long-term stable supply relationship with Google in the MPO field, which is crucial for high-density optical connections [2][43]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 1.675 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected increase to 3.452 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 97.54% [6][55]. - The net profit for 2023 was 81 million yuan, expected to rise to 372 million yuan in 2025, indicating a significant growth trajectory [6][55]. - The overall gross margin improved to 40.19% in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by the growth in data communication and industrial interconnection markets [27]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to become a core beneficiary of Google's computing power expansion, with its data communication business projected to achieve rapid growth [3][55]. - The report highlights the potential for significant market opportunities in the AOC and MPO sectors, with the company already making strides in silicon photonics technology [2][49].

机构投资者占流通 A 股比例 | 基金 | 0.3% | | --- | --- | | 一般法人 | 32.0% | 股价相对大盘走势 | H70529@capital.com.tw | | --- | | 何利超 目标价(元) 130 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | 机械设备 | | --- | --- | --- | | A 股价(2025/12/29) | | 109.32 | | 深证成指(2025/12/29) | | 13537.10 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 116.5/21.53 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 976.56 | | A 股数(百万) | | 850.19 | | A 市值(亿元) | | 929.43 | | 主要股东 | | 深圳市英维克 | | | | 投资有限公司 | | | | (25.09%) | | 每股净值(元) | | 3.39 | | | 一个月 三个月 | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | 48.5 40.6 253.2 | | 近期评等 出刊日期 前日收盘 评等 2025 年 12 月 30 日 | 产品组合 | | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Century Huatong, as part of its initial coverage [2][7][65]. Core Insights - Century Huatong has transformed into the largest game company in A-shares by acquiring several firms, including Qiku, Tianyou, Diandian Interactive, and Shengqu Games [6][15]. - The company is expected to see significant growth in net profit, with projections of 54 billion, 82 billion, and 101 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 345%, 52%, and 23% [5][7][65]. - The report emphasizes the potential of Diandian Interactive's SLG (Simulation and Strategy Game) and casual gaming segments, which are expected to drive future growth [6][58]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are 22,620 million yuan for 2024, 37,927 million yuan for 2025, 45,189 million yuan for 2026, and 49,552 million yuan for 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 70.3%, 67.7%, 19.1%, and 9.7% [5][63]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain robust, with estimates of 68.4%, 68.8%, and 69.0% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][63]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase to 18.7% in 2025, 22.0% in 2026, and 21.3% in 2027 [5]. Market Position and Strategy - Diandian Interactive has established itself as a leader in the global SLG market, with significant contributions from its successful titles such as "Whiteout Survival" and "Kingshot" [6][27][28]. - The report highlights the strategic importance of casual gaming, which is expected to create a new growth curve for the company, particularly in overseas markets [6][58]. - The company is leveraging its expertise in both SLG and casual gaming to enhance user acquisition and retention, thereby expanding its market share [6][58][47]. Valuation and Target Market Capitalization - The report employs a relative valuation method, assigning a target market capitalization of 172.2 billion yuan based on a 21X PE ratio for 2026 [7][65]. - The valuation is supported by comparisons with leading gaming companies in the A-share market, indicating a favorable outlook for Century Huatong [7][66].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][12]. Core Insights - The company is set to benefit from the ongoing wave of overseas expansion and plans to accelerate its global strategy through a proposed H-share listing in Hong Kong [4][5]. - The company's revenue for Q3 2025 reached 455 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.43%, primarily driven by the rapid expansion of its overseas short drama platform, FlareFlow [5]. - The overseas short drama market is projected to reach a size of 3.2 billion USD in 2025, with a growth rate exceeding 200%, indicating a high-growth phase for the industry [6]. - The company has a strong position in the overseas short drama sector, with its platform ReelShort being a market leader in terms of downloads and revenue [6]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 23.60 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 17.2 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a total share capital of 729 million shares, with 660 million shares in circulation [3]. - The asset-liability ratio stands at 38.5%, indicating a relatively stable financial structure [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.4 billion, 1.5 billion, and 1.6 billion yuan respectively, with a consistent growth trajectory [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be -100 million yuan in 2025, improving to 82 million yuan in 2026 and 313 million yuan in 2027 [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be -0.14 yuan in 2025, turning positive at 0.11 yuan in 2026 and 0.43 yuan in 2027 [10].

证券研究报告：医药生物 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-12-30 股票投资评级 买入 |首次覆盖 个股表现 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-08 2025-10 2025-12 -15% -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 21% 25% 方盛制药 医药生物 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 11.11 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）4.39 | / 4.39 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）49 | / 49 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 13.01 / 9.07 | | 资产负债率(%) | 46.9% | | 市盈率 | 18.83 | | 第一大股东 | 张庆华 | 研究所 分析师:盛丽华 SAC 登记编号:S1340525060001 Email:shenglihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:龙永茂 SAC 登记编号:S1340523110002 Email:longyongmao@cnpsec.com 方盛制药(603998) 养血祛风止痛颗粒纳入医保，持续添加 ...