Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887.SH) as the initial coverage [2]. Core Insights - Yili Co., Ltd. is positioned as a leading player in the Chinese dairy industry, demonstrating strong operational resilience during industry adjustments. The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 2.2%, 3.7%, and 3.6% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth of 27.9%, 14.8%, and 8.7% for the same years [5][9]. - The dairy industry in China is entering a mature phase, with a retail scale projected to reach approximately 560 billion yuan in 2024. Yili's product matrix includes liquid milk as a base, with milk powder and dairy products, as well as ice cream, driving growth [5][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections for Yili Co., Ltd. are 118.37 billion yuan in 2025, 122.73 billion yuan in 2026, and 127.14 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 10.82 billion yuan, 12.42 billion yuan, and 13.50 billion yuan [7]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 34.4% in 2025 to 35.2% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [7]. Business Segments - Liquid milk revenue is projected to stabilize at 750.8 billion yuan in 2025, with a modest growth rate of 0.1% [5]. - The milk powder and dairy products segment is expected to grow significantly, with revenues of 326.4 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase [5]. - The ice cream business is anticipated to recover with double-digit growth, reaching revenues of 96.8 billion yuan in 2025, a 11% increase [5]. Market Position and Strategy - Yili Co., Ltd. is transitioning from a "long-life milk leader" to a "platform dairy enterprise," actively expanding its product categories to mitigate risks associated with liquid milk demand [5][6]. - The company has established a robust national distribution network with over 5 million terminal points, enhancing its competitive edge across various product lines [6]. Growth Catalysts - The anticipated rebound in demand for infant formula due to increased birth rates in 2024 is expected to benefit Yili as a market leader in this segment [9]. - The adult nutrition market is expanding, driven by an aging population and increasing health awareness, providing further growth opportunities for Yili [9]. - The company's strategy in deep processing and high-margin B-end markets is expected to unlock additional revenue streams [9].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Xiamen Xiangyu [3][9] Core Insights - Xiamen Xiangyu is positioned as a comprehensive investment holding group focused on bulk commodity supply chain services, aiming to become a global supply chain service provider. The company has shown a significant recovery in revenue growth and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, driven primarily by its metal mining and energy chemical businesses [8][28]. - The report identifies three major trends reshaping the bulk supply chain industry: the strategic focus on supply chain autonomy amid geopolitical tensions, the transition from traditional trade to integrated service platforms, and the globalization of logistics networks following domestic manufacturing expansion [8][41][50]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The projected total revenue for Xiamen Xiangyu is expected to reach 387.75 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 21.84 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 53.9% compared to the previous year [7][9]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to be 0.77 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11x [7][9]. Business Model and Growth Drivers - Xiamen Xiangyu's business model is evolving from traditional trading to a comprehensive service platform, focusing on value-added services that enhance customer operations. This shift is expected to stabilize revenue streams and improve profitability [8][50][54]. - The company has made substantial investments in fixed assets and is pursuing digital transformation and globalization as dual drivers for future growth. The shipbuilding segment is also projected to contribute significantly to profit, with a substantial order backlog [8][9][60]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Xiamen Xiangyu's market position is strengthened by its diversified business operations, which include metal supply chains, logistics, and shipbuilding. The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in trade demand and improved industrial performance [8][30][60]. - The report compares Xiamen Xiangyu with peers such as Jianfa Co., Xiamen Guomao, and Sumida, noting that the average PE ratio for comparable companies is 14x, indicating a potential upside of 26% for Xiamen Xiangyu's current market valuation [9][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for China Power [1][3]. Core Views - China Power is currently undervalued due to the pressure on ship market volume and prices this year. However, there are signs of recovery in the short term, and long-term growth is expected from bulk carriers and oil tankers, along with the trend towards alternative fuels [1][7]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic ship engine market, with a significant increase in revenue and profit expected in the coming years [7][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, China Power achieved revenue of 40.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.21 billion yuan, up 63% year-on-year [7][9]. - The company’s revenue growth rates are projected at 17% for 2025, 15% for 2026, and 12% for 2027, with net profits expected to reach 2.2 billion yuan, 3.1 billion yuan, and 4.25 billion yuan respectively [8][70]. Market Outlook - The ship market is showing signs of recovery, with expectations for increased demand for bulk carriers and oil tankers. The aging fleet and low order-to-capacity ratios for these vessels indicate a tightening supply in the future [2][30][35]. - The report highlights that the global shipbuilding market is currently in an upward cycle driven by the need for fleet renewal and compliance with environmental regulations [23][24]. Valuation - China Power's current price-to-book (PB) ratio is below 1.2, and the projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2026 is only 15 times, both indicating a significant undervaluation compared to historical averages [7][72]. - The company has over 40 billion yuan in cash, which is close to its market capitalization, providing a strong safety margin for investors [15][72]. Business Segments - The diesel engine segment is becoming the core profit driver for China Power, with its revenue share increasing significantly. By 2027, it is expected to contribute approximately 30 billion yuan to net profits [11][70]. - The report emphasizes the structural opportunities in the ship engine market due to the rising penetration of alternative fuels and the expected increase in orders and prices for ship engines [7][57].

证券研究报告 公司研究 / 首次覆盖 2025 年 12 月 26 日 | 市场数据： | 2025 年 12 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 272.11 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 336.50/208.8 | | 市净率 | 16.1 | | 股息率（分红/股价） | 1.84 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 141,501 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,960/13,531 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 能量饮料龙头迈向综合平台型公司 | 基础数据： | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 16.9 | | 资产负债率% | 63.24 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 520/520 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与沪深 300 指数对比走势： ——东鹏饮料（605499.SH）首次覆盖报告 投资要点： 食品饮料 | 报告原因： | | --- | | 买入（首次评级） | -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 12- ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% from the current price [6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the industrial control sector, benefiting from a gradual recovery in the industry driven by equipment upgrades and policy support. The domestic market for general servo systems is expected to grow by 10.1% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with an annual growth forecast of 7.4% [6]. - The company has successfully increased its market share in key segments, with a reported market share of 32.0% in general servo systems, 22.0% in low-voltage frequency converters, and 8.2% in industrial robots as of H1 2025, reflecting significant year-on-year increases [6]. - The company is expanding its capabilities in AI and humanoid robot components, with a successful launch of its iFG platform for industrial AI software, transitioning from a hardware provider to a platform-based enterprise [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the electrical equipment industry, with a current A-share price of 73.30 RMB and a target price of 88 RMB [1]. - The company has a market capitalization of 173.87 billion RMB and a total share count of approximately 2.71 billion [1]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 31.66 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 24.7%, and a net profit of 4.25 billion RMB, up 26.8% year-on-year [6]. - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5.55 billion RMB, 6.40 billion RMB, and 7.40 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 27.6%, 17.5%, and 14.4% [6][8]. Market Position - The company has a strong market presence, with significant shares in various product categories, including 42.9% in general automation and 45.2% in the new energy vehicle and rail transit sectors [2]. - Institutional investors hold 21.5% of the circulating A-shares, indicating a solid interest from larger investment entities [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain rapid growth in revenue and profit due to increased investments in fragmented and project-based markets, alongside the anticipated commercialization of humanoid robots in 2026 [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][10]. Core Insights - The company, a leader in high-power power supply solutions, is expected to benefit significantly from the AI wave, leading to high growth in its server power supply business. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 48.42 billion, 59.10 billion, and 69.33 billion yuan, with net profits of 3.80 billion, 5.06 billion, and 6.39 billion yuan respectively [7][10]. - The company has a diversified business model with three main segments: power adapters, server power supplies, and other power solutions, which collectively form a robust growth strategy [9][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has over 20 years of experience in the switching power supply sector, evolving into a leading manufacturer of power adapters, server power supplies, and other power solutions. It was established in 1996 and has expanded its product offerings significantly since then [21][24]. 2. Server Power Supply - The company is positioned as a domestic leader in high-power server power supplies, expected to benefit from the increasing demand for AI computing power. The server power supply segment is projected to grow significantly, with revenue growth rates of 60%, 40%, and 28% from 2025 to 2027 [9][10][15]. - The company’s products cover a wide range of power requirements, including high-efficiency solutions tailored for AI servers, which are critical for meeting the evolving demands of the market [9][74]. 3. Other Business Segments - The power adapter segment remains a stable revenue source, while the company is actively expanding into new areas such as electric vehicle chargers and other specialized power products, which are expected to contribute to future growth [9][82]. - The company is leveraging the recovery in consumer electronics demand to boost its power adapter sales, with significant growth anticipated in the display market, driven by new technologies and increased gaming demand [82][85]. 4. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 48.42 billion, 59.10 billion, and 69.33 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 3.80 billion, 5.06 billion, and 6.39 billion yuan. The report suggests a target market capitalization of 311.45 billion yuan for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current market value [10][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 35.6 yuan [1]. Core Insights - The company is set to accelerate its store openings, which will enhance its growth potential. The new store model has been validated, and the company aims to achieve its 2025 store opening targets. The report outlines a three-phase growth strategy: "from 0 to 1," "from 1 to 10," and "from 10 to 100," indicating a clear operational turning point and the beginning of a new growth cycle [6][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,671 million yuan in 2024 to 2,540 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.6% in 2027 [2]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 277 million yuan in 2024 to 408 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 25.7% in 2027 [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 1.15 yuan in 2024 to 1.70 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 25 times in 2024 to 17 times in 2027 [2][7]. Store Expansion Strategy - The company has successfully opened new stores in various regions, including Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong, and Hubei, validating the replicability of its new store model. The upcoming franchisee conferences and the peak opening season after the Spring Festival are expected to catalyze further growth [6][7]. - The report anticipates that the company will reach a mid-term target of 1,500 to 2,000 new stores, with potential for even greater expansion in the long term [6][7]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a leader in the steamed bun industry, with a focus on continuous innovation and operational efficiency. The report emphasizes the attractiveness of the business model to franchisees, which is expected to drive further expansion and enhance brand strength [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Jerry Holdings (002353), marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - Jerry Holdings is a leading company in the drilling and completion equipment sector, driven by dual engines of "natural gas + electricity" for growth [1]. - The company has established a diversified business model with significant breakthroughs in domestic and international markets, particularly in drilling, natural gas, and gas turbine generator businesses [1][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - Jerry Holdings, founded in 1999, is a prominent energy equipment and technology service provider in China, with a focus on high-end equipment manufacturing, oil and gas engineering services, new energy, and environmental governance [10]. - The company has a strong market position in drilling and completion equipment, holding the largest market share in domestic sectors such as fracturing, cementing, and coiled tubing [15][17]. Natural Gas Business - The natural gas segment has emerged as a "second growth curve" for the company, with significant orders and revenue growth, including a 112.69% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025 [6][57]. - The global LNG market is entering a new construction phase, with over 300 billion cubic meters of new capacity expected to be operational from 2025 to 2030, particularly in the Middle East [44][46]. Power Energy Business - The power energy segment is being developed as a "third growth curve," driven by the increasing demand for gas turbine generator sets, particularly in data centers [6][19]. - The company has signed multiple contracts exceeding $100 million for gas turbine sales, establishing a new business growth point [6][19]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts total revenue of 13,354.92 million yuan in 2024, with a projected growth rate of 21.96% in 2025, reaching 16,287.21 million yuan [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 2,627.03 million yuan in 2024 to 3,164.19 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 20.45% [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a P/E ratio forecast, indicating a decrease from 27.59 in 2024 to 22.91 in 2025, and further down to 16.29 by 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company Xiaogoods City (600415) [2] Core Insights - The company aims to become a "global first-class" comprehensive trade service provider by establishing three ecosystems: commodity display and trading, supporting services, and trade services, enhancing trade efficiency and creating value for small commodity circulation. In 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 15.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [3][12][19] Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - Xiaogoods City is positioned as a leader in the small commodity market, focusing on becoming a comprehensive trade service provider. The company has established a significant market presence in Yiwu, which is the largest small commodity distribution center globally, with over 800,000 square meters of market space and 2.1 million types of products [14][19] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues of 7.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.99%, and a net profit of 1.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.78%. The trade services segment saw a remarkable revenue increase of 43.16%, indicating that new business areas are becoming the core engine of growth [5][15][31] Market Dynamics - The Yiwu market has experienced continuous growth, with the total import and export volume reaching 668.93 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%. The "1039" market procurement trade model has significantly reduced customs clearance time and costs, facilitating small commodity exports [4][13][45] Digital Transformation - The company is accelerating its digital transformation through the chinagoods platform, which has registered 4.09 million buyers across over 150 countries. The platform is expected to achieve a GMV of 45 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, enhancing operational efficiency for merchants [4][12][19] Growth Opportunities - The global digital trade center project is expected to enhance the company's market position by adopting a market-oriented pricing mechanism, which will significantly improve profitability. The project aims to integrate digital services with physical trade, creating a comprehensive service platform for small commodity trade [53][61][56]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Dou Shen Education, for the first time [1]. Core Insights - Dou Shen Education is positioned as a leader in aesthetic education, focusing on creating an "AI + Education" ecosystem. The company aims to leverage its self-developed AI models to enhance educational services and product offerings [1][10]. - The company has undergone significant restructuring and is now focusing on non-subject quality education and AI education, which has led to a return to profitability and growth in revenue and net profit [20][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Dou Shen Education, formerly known as Li Si Chen, has transformed its business model to focus on K12 non-subject quality education, utilizing AI technology to reconstruct educational services [13]. - The company has a strong management team with extensive experience in the education sector, led by its actual controller, Dou Xin, who holds 18.29% of the shares [18]. 2. Market Dynamics - The education and training sector is experiencing a significant demand, with the number of college entrance exam candidates increasing from 9.4 million in 2017 to 13.42 million in 2024, while the admission rate has decreased from 43.7% to 37.0% during the same period [34]. - The report highlights a supply-demand imbalance in the education sector, with rising prices expected due to increased competition and a recovery in participation rates post-regulatory changes [36]. 3. AI Education Strategy - Dou Shen Education has developed a product matrix that includes AI-driven educational tools such as "AI Dual Teacher" and "AI Super Training Ground," which aim to enhance the learning experience and efficiency [15][19]. - The company has established a dual-driven model combining AI software services and hardware terminals, creating a closed-loop learning ecosystem that covers user needs across various scenarios [10][12]. 4. Financial Projections - The report forecasts total revenue for Dou Shen Education to reach 1,050.6 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 38.82%. Net profit is expected to be 90.62 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 33.92% compared to the previous year [1]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.04 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 165.33 at the current market price [1]. 5. Competitive Landscape - The report notes that AI technology is breaking the traditional constraints of education, allowing for high-quality, large-scale, and personalized learning experiences that were previously unattainable [51]. - Dou Shen Education's unique data assets and knowledge graphs create a competitive barrier that is difficult for competitors to replicate in the short term [10][12].