上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 深 度 2025 年 12 月 30 日 牧原股份 (002714) ——领先成本助穿越周期，双擎共振启价值新程 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 投资要点： | 市场数据： | 2025 年 12 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 50.89 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 59.68/35.72 | | 市净率 | 3.7 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 2.95 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 193,921 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,965.12/13,604.07 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 13.89 | | 资产负债率% | 55.50 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 5,463/3,811 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading provider of connectors in China, benefiting from trends in high-speed interconnectivity and liquid cooling [2][9]. - The demand for connectors is expected to grow significantly due to the booming data center construction and the increasing penetration of domestic products [9]. - The company has a strong position in the defense sector and is expanding its presence in the high-end manufacturing fields, including new energy vehicles and 5G communications [9]. Financial Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 20,074 million in 2023 to RMB 35,076 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.2% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 3,339 million in 2023 to RMB 4,344 million in 2027, with a peak growth rate of 28.8% in 2027 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 1.58 in 2023 to RMB 2.05 in 2027 [3]. Company Overview - The company specializes in high-end connectors for aviation, defense, and advanced manufacturing, with over 300 series and 250,000 varieties of products [9][17]. - It has a robust product portfolio that includes electrical connectors, optical devices, cable assemblies, and integrated products, widely used in various high-end manufacturing sectors [9][17]. - The company has been in operation for over 50 years and aims to become a "global first-class interconnection solution provider" [17]. Industry Insights - The connector market is experiencing steady growth, driven by increasing demand in both military and civilian applications, particularly in new energy vehicles and 5G communications [9][62]. - The trend towards high-speed, high-capacity, and low-latency connections is pushing the demand for advanced connectors, with a significant shift from air cooling to liquid cooling solutions anticipated [9][62]. - The Asian connector market, represented by China, is emerging as a key player, with substantial opportunities for domestic replacements in various sectors [9].

证券研究报告 电子 | 元件 北交所|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 30 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | 2025 | 年 | 12 | 月 29 | 日 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | | | | | 29.20 | | | 一 年 最 | / | | | | | | | 42.88/19.56 | 内 | 最 | 高 | | 低 | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 4,121.38 | | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 3,3 ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 苑东生物（688513）深度研究报告 强推（维持） 体系整合，上海超阳打造差异化创新竞争力 目标价：87.6 元 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 1,350 | 1,376 | | 1,567 | 1,933 | | 同比增速(%) | 20.8% | 2.0% | | 13.8% | 23.4% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 238 | 277 | | 316 | 388 | | 同比增速(%) | 5.1% | 16.2% | | 14.0% | 22.9% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.35 | 1.57 | | 1.79 | 2.20 | | 市盈率(倍) | 44 | 38 | | 34 | 27 | | 市净率(倍) | 3.9 | 3.6 | | 3.4 | 3.1 | | 资料来源：公司公告， | 华创证券预测 | 注：股价为 2025 | 年 12 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [6][16]. Core Insights - The company has achieved record sales revenue of $635.2 million in Q3 2025, aligning with guidance expectations, and a gross margin of 13.5%, which exceeds guidance [3]. - The production capacity utilization of the three 8-inch wafer fabs remains high, with the first 12-inch fab achieving a monthly capacity of 95,000 wafers, and the second fab ramping up to over 35,000 wafers [3]. - Price increases initiated in Q2 have positively impacted gross margins, with 80% of the improvement attributed to average selling price increases and 20% from a shift towards higher-margin products [3]. - The company anticipates Q4 2025 sales revenue to be approximately $650-660 million, with a gross margin of 12-14% [3]. - The "China for China" strategy is driving strong demand, with ongoing upgrades in production capacity and product mix, including the launch of 40nm products in 2026 [4]. - The acquisition of Huali Micro is progressing, which will enhance the company's 12-inch wafer foundry capacity and create synergies between the two companies' technology platforms [5]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 173 billion, 208 billion, and 238 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 5.8 billion, 11.4 billion, and 15.4 billion yuan [6][10]. - The expected growth rates for revenue are 19.99% in 2025, 20.73% in 2026, and 14.23% in 2027 [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.33 yuan in 2025, 0.65 yuan in 2026, and 0.89 yuan in 2027 [10][15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights the planned acquisition of Datang Tibet Energy Development Co., Ltd. and China Datang Group ZDN Clean Energy Development Co., Ltd., which is expected to initiate a growth phase for the company [7] - The acquisition is valued at 2.025 billion yuan, with the assessed value of the target equity totaling 1.354 billion yuan, indicating a price-to-book ratio of 1.1 times [7] - The company is expected to secure hydropower development rights for the Nu River tributary, solidifying its position in the hydropower sector [7] - The report anticipates significant growth in net profit from 2.793 billion yuan in 2025 to 3.159 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios decreasing from 20.20 to 17.87 [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 8,091 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 9,784 million yuan in 2025, and reaching 11,049 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 6.28% [6] - The expected net profit for 2025 is 2,793 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22.33% [6] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 12.08% in 2024 to 14.64% in 2027 [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.29 yuan in 2024 to 0.40 yuan in 2027 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company benefits from an upward storage cycle driven by AI, leading to continuous price increases in storage products. The demand for high-performance inference services is growing, and in the context of a supply-demand imbalance for traditional large-capacity HDDs, CSPs are shifting storage demand towards QLC Enterprise SSDs. The overall supply-demand situation has resulted in price increases for various NAND Flash products. The company is expected to hold the largest market share in NOR Flash and SLC NAND Flash products in mainland China in 2024, with a second-largest share in niche DRAM, benefiting from the storage industry cycle [2][3]. Revenue and Profit Growth - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 6.832 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.083 billion yuan, up 30.18% year-on-year. The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 38.59%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points, while the net profit margin increased by 1.45 percentage points to 16.17% [3][4]. Product Line Expansion - The company continues to enrich its product line, launching a dual-voltage SPI NOR Flash product specifically designed for 1.2V SoC applications, applicable in emerging fields such as smart wearables, healthcare, IoT, data centers, and edge AI. The company is one of the first to achieve mass production of 45nm node SPI NOR Flash. In the first half of 2025, the company introduced high-speed QSPI NAND Flash products with faster read speeds and bad block management features, applicable in industrial and IoT scenarios [3][4]. Niche DRAM Revenue Growth - The company's niche DRAM products are widely used in network communications, televisions, set-top boxes, smart homes, and industrial applications. In the first half of 2025, the promotion of the 8Gb DDR4 product was successful, leading to steady revenue growth, while LPDDR4 products began to contribute to revenue. With major overseas manufacturers exiting the niche DRAM market, supply is tight, resulting in increased revenue from niche DRAM products [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is recognized as a leading player in the domestic niche storage market, benefiting from the upward storage cycle. The diversified product layout is expected to further open up incremental space. The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 1.760 billion yuan and 2.551 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting increases of 9% and 22%. A new forecast for 2027 net profit is set at 2.911 billion yuan [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 21.986 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting an increase of 11.38% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 20.51% to 2.353 billion yuan [3][4]. - The company's health consumer products (CHC) business is solidifying its leadership position, while the prescription drug segment is undergoing transformation to unlock growth potential [5]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 30.581 billion yuan, 33.876 billion yuan, and 37.264 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 3.376 billion yuan, 3.789 billion yuan, and 4.277 billion yuan [7][10]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 28.55 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 47.5 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a total share capital of 1.664 billion shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 37.0% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.86 [2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the gross margin was 53.52%, while the net profit margin was 10.70%, reflecting a decrease of 4.29 percentage points [4]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 2.925 billion yuan, down 8.70% year-on-year [3]. Strategic Developments - The company is actively launching new products in response to consumer trends, including various health products aimed at respiratory diseases [5]. - The collaboration with Kunming Pharmaceutical Group and Tianshili is enhancing the company's capabilities in innovation, manufacturing, and marketing [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to the company with a target price of 41.35 CNY [6][12]. Core Insights - The company is a leading provider of digital products and solutions, focusing on intelligent computing hardware and software, and is well-positioned in the digital transformation and new infrastructure sectors [3][27]. - The core subsidiary, Baifei Electronics, is a leader in domestic embedded computing, experiencing rapid order growth due to the rising demand in specialized electronic equipment [3][41]. - The future growth potential is significant, driven by AI and domestic innovation initiatives [3][27]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 10,001 million CNY in 2023 to 13,990 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.4% [5][20]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 497 million CNY in 2023 to 726 million CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 16.2% in 2027 [5][20]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.73 CNY in 2023 to 1.07 CNY in 2027 [5][20]. Revenue Breakdown - The industry digitalization business is expected to achieve revenues of 9,721.91 million CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 10% [19]. - The digital new infrastructure business is projected to generate revenues of 965.56 million CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 20% [19]. - The digital products business is anticipated to reach revenues of 800 million CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 1.19% [19]. Business Segments - The company operates in three main business segments: digital products, industry digitalization, and digital new infrastructure, with the digitalization segment contributing the highest revenue [33][34]. - The digital products segment includes intelligent computing hardware and software, while the industry digitalization segment focuses on enhancing digital infrastructure solutions [33][34]. - The digital new infrastructure segment provides comprehensive services throughout the lifecycle of digital infrastructure projects [33][34]. Internationalization and AI Initiatives - The company has successfully expanded its international business, generating 5.98 million CNY in revenue in 2024, with a focus on financial and telecommunications sectors [37]. - AI-related orders have surpassed 100, indicating a strong demand for intelligent computing solutions [36][37].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the automotive thermal management sector, showing steady growth in performance. It has been established for over 70 years and has maintained strong development momentum in both traditional and new energy sectors. Revenue is projected to grow from 2.665 billion yuan in 2020 to 4.723 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 15.38%. Correspondingly, net profit is expected to rise from 124 million yuan to 330 million yuan, with a CAGR of 27.61% [3][4]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is increasing, with sales reaching 6.937 million units in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 40.3%. The company aims to upgrade to a provider of integrated thermal management modules and system solutions, leveraging its new production base in Thailand, which has a designed capacity of 1.5 million turbo shells and 1 million mechanical water pumps annually [4][5]. - The company is expanding its thermal management technology into various civilian sectors, including data center liquid cooling and robotics. It has established partnerships with over 40 leading companies in the industry, indicating a strong market presence and potential for growth in these new areas [5][6]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 418 million yuan, 485 million yuan, and 565 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The corresponding EPS is projected to be 0.73 yuan, 0.84 yuan, and 0.98 yuan, with current PE ratios of 43, 37, and 32 times [7][9]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 4.723 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.051 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 15.3%, 3.4%, 10.6%, and 12.0% for the respective years [9][10]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 9.9% in 2024 to 13.4% in 2027, reflecting improved profitability [10].