上市三年市值蒸发千亿，狂烧 11 亿转战直播，蓝月亮："赔 本赚吆喝"，历史还会再给一次机会吗？ 导语：营销力度大到难以持续。 作者：市值风云 App：扶苏 一、中期营收大增，带动股价反弹 1、上市以来股价跌剩零头 国内洗衣液和洗手液龙头——蓝月亮集团（06993.HK，"公司"）自 8 月 22 日公 布中期业绩以来，股价反弹势头明显。 截至 9 月 20 日收盘，公司股价 2.26 港元，较中期业绩公布前一日收盘价 1.74 港元，不到一个月已累计涨 30%，并触及今年以来股价高位。 （今年以来股价走势，来源：东方财富 Choice） 中期业绩显示，2024 年上半年，公司营收 31.3 亿港元，同比增 41%，并创下历 史最高增速水平。 公司上一次高光时刻，还是出现在招股书中：2018 年，公司营收 67.7 亿港元， 同比增 20%；此后年份，公司营收或为个位数同比增速，或为负增长。 1 / 17 营收及增速 = 营收 = -YoY 79.5 76.0 73.2 70.0 70.5 67.7 56.3 亿港 20.2% 位： 31.3 6% 4.6% 0.8% 7.8% 2017 2018 2019 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the company [1][2][3] Core Arguments - The report alleges that the company has been falsifying its SEC financials to portray the business as more profitable than it actually is [6] - The report claims that the company has been using related-party transactions to shift costs and manipulate profit statements [7][8][9] - The report suggests that the company has been manipulating its profit by under-provisioning for bad debts, despite increasing delinquency rates [12][13][14] - The report highlights a significant discrepancy between the company's reported profits and the profits reported to the State Administration for Industry and Commerce (SAIC) [4][5] - The report criticizes the company's controlling shareholder, Zhou Hongyi, for a history of actions that allegedly harm public shareholders' interests [16][18][19][20] Company Overview - The company, formerly known as "360 DigiTech," rebranded as "Qifu Technology" in 2023 [1] - The company is widely recognized by its brand name "360 Jietiao," which was recently renamed to "Qifu Jietiao" [3] - Zhou Hongyi, the former chairman of the board, resigned in August 2024 for "personal reasons" [3] Financial Discrepancies - The company reported a net income of 4 billion RMB to the SEC in 2022, while the SAIC data showed a net income of only 3.15 million RMB for the same year, a difference of 1271 times [4] - In 2023, the company reported a net income of 4.27 billion RMB to the SEC, while the SAIC data showed a net income of 3.08 million RMB, a difference of 1384 times [4] - The report highlights a significant discrepancy in total revenues reported to the SEC and SAIC, with a 23.1% difference in 2022 and a 17.2% difference in 2023 [5] Related-Party Transactions - The company has engaged in significant related-party transactions with Shanghai Qibutianxia, a subsidiary controlled by Zhou Hongyi [7][8] - The report alleges that Shanghai Qibutianxia has a large number of employees (5000-9999 or over 10,000) but no discernible business operations, suggesting that the company may be using it to shift employee costs [10][11] - The company's employee count increased from 2129 in 2021 to 3121 in 2023, while Shanghai Qibutianxia's employee count remained significantly higher [11] Profit Manipulation - The company's bad debt provisions accounted for 55% of total operating expenses in 2022 and 50% in 2023, making it a significant factor in profit manipulation [12] - The 90-day delinquency rate increased from 2.03% in 2022 to 3.40% in Q2 2024, indicating deteriorating loan quality [12][13] - Despite a 33% increase in accounts receivable from 2022 to 2023, the company reduced its bad debt provisions by 12% [13][14] - The company's cash and cash equivalents decreased by 2.1 billion RMB from 2022 to H1 2024, despite reported revenue and net income growth [15] Controlling Shareholder's History - Zhou Hongyi has a history of actions that allegedly harm public shareholders' interests, as seen in his other listed companies, LUDASHI and 360 [16][18][19] - LUDASHI's stock price surged due to a special dividend announcement but plummeted after Zhou Hongyi's controlled entity sold a significant portion of its shares and the dividend plan was canceled [18] - 360's stock price experienced a significant decline after its re-listing in China, despite an initial surge [19] - The report estimates that insiders have sold over 230 million USD worth of shares since 2020 [20] Conclusion - The report concludes that the company's stock is likely to experience a significant decline, similar to the performance of Zhou Hongyi's other listed companies [20]

Investment Rating - Maintain **Buy** rating with a revised target price of HK$107.84, up from HK$97.05, reflecting a 24.2% upside potential [2][3] - The new target price is based on a 20x FY25E P/E multiple, up from 18x, due to improved investor sentiment following central government stimulus measures [2] Core Views - The company's new retail formats, such as the "ANTA Super Store," "ANTA Champion Store," "ANTA SNEAKERVERSE," "ANTA Arena," and "ANTA Palace," are successfully driving growth and expanding the customer base [1] - The ANTA Super Store in Shenzhen, with a monthly sales estimate of RMB 1.5 million, outperforms regular ANTA stores, with annual sales per square meter reaching RMB 21,000, compared to RMB 16,000 for regular stores [6] - The company aims to open 10 ANTA Super Stores in FY24 and expand to 40 stores within three years, potentially contributing 2% to ANTA brand sales by FY26 [6] - The company's market segmentation strategy, including targeting mass-market, premium, and niche markets, is well-executed and supports future growth [1] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12% from FY23 to FY26E, with net profit growing at a CAGR of 16% [2] - FY24E revenue is projected at RMB 70.3 billion, with net profit of RMB 13.7 billion, representing a 12.8% YoY growth in revenue and 21.4% YoY growth in net profit [3][19] - FY25E revenue is forecasted at RMB 78.3 billion, with net profit of RMB 15.0 billion, reflecting an 11.4% YoY revenue growth and 9.7% YoY net profit growth [3][19] - FY26E revenue is expected to reach RMB 87.1 billion, with net profit of RMB 17.6 billion, indicating an 11.2% YoY revenue growth and 17.5% YoY net profit growth [3][19] Store Performance and Strategy - The ANTA Super Store in Shenzhen, with a floor area of 670 sqm (860 sqm including warehouse), achieves monthly sales exceeding RMB 1 million, with an average ticket size of RMB 330 [6] - The store offers a wide range of products, including training gear, professional sports, outdoor products, and sports culture, with approximately 1,000 SKUs [1] - The store's product mix differs from regular ANTA stores, with only 10% overlap in SKUs, and a higher proportion of evergreen products [1] - The company's strategy to attract new customers, particularly families and students, is successful, with over 90% of customers being first-time visitors to ANTA Group [6] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company's FY25E P/E of 16x is below its 5-year historical average of 25x, indicating undervaluation [2] - The company's ROE is expected to remain strong, at 24.7% in FY26E, compared to 26.0% in FY21A [3][19] - Peer comparison shows ANTA Sports trading at a lower P/E multiple compared to some international brands like Nike and Adidas, which trade at higher multiples [17] Growth Drivers - The company's new retail formats and market segmentation strategy are key growth drivers, supported by strong execution and financial performance [1][6] - The ANTA Super Store model, with its high sales per square meter and attractive pricing, is expected to drive significant growth in the coming years [6] - The company's focus on expanding its customer base, particularly through family and student segments, is expected to contribute to long-term growth [6]

基本数据 收盘价 HK$13.56 总市值(百万港元) 46,136.45 总股本(百万股) 3,402.39 财务摘要 [Table_Forcast] (百万元) 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入 8424 11322 15414 18971 (+/-) (%) 7% 34% 36% 23% 归母净利润 686 1262 1974 2818 (+/-) (%) 71% 84% 56% 43% 每股收益(元) 0.14 0.37 0.58 0.83 P/E 88.15 33.28 21.27 14.90 资料来源：浙商证券研究所 招金矿业(01818) 报告日期：2024 年 09 月 27 日 深聚潜力，"招"金而来 ——招金矿业深度报告 投资要点 1、行业核心：第三轮黄金大牛市 若中期内美国难以同时满足"经济好+通胀低"这 2 个条件，则金价有望保持长牛， 进而带动贵金属公司盈利能力的增长。 2、龙头地方国企，紫金入股彰显潜力 公司控股股东为招金集团，实控人为招远市人民政府；A 股龙头矿业公司紫金矿业入 股成为公司第二大股东，彰显公司深厚的发展潜力。 3、纯正黄金股，资源雄厚，产量 ...

27 Sep 2024 Earnings Summary CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Anta Sports (2020 HK) Takeaways from the Anta Superstore visit The Anta Superstore we visited is fairly competitive and should be a decent growth driver onwards, supported by its superior price to quality and great variety of choices. Moreover, it can also acquire more family-type customers, and it has reasonable room for store expansion and decent financials (both sales per store and sales per sq.m are better t ...

上 市 公 司 传媒 证 券 研 究 报 告 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 2024 年 09 月 27 日 快手-W (01024) ——内容驱动商业生态繁荣，投入 AI 提升平台效率 报告原因：有新的信息需要补充 | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 09 月 26 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 47.95 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 7086.7 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 65.70/37.55 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 2,078.58 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 3,585.13 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.1064 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -37% -17% 3% 23% HSCEI 快手-W 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 任梦妮 A0230521100005 renmn@swsresearch.co ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [2]. Core Views - The company has a broad future growth potential due to its three main business segments: development, operation, and service, which work in synergy [4]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 158.04 billion, 153.30 billion, and 149.14 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -12.6%, -3.0%, and -2.7% respectively [4]. - The company is expected to maintain a low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.8, 6.1, and 5.6 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has over 30 years of experience, focusing on residential development, commercial investment, and property management across major cities in China [14]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the Wu family being the largest shareholder [15]. Business Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 180.74 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.9% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in property development revenue [21]. - The operating and service segments showed resilience, with a revenue increase of 5.7% year-on-year, contributing to 13.8% of total revenue [21]. Financial Health - The company maintains a strong financial position, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 2.25 and a net debt ratio of 56% as of the end of 2023 [24]. - The company has successfully managed its debt structure, with no foreign bonds maturing before the end of 2026 [26]. Commercial Investment - The company has been actively expanding its commercial investment segment, with a focus on high-energy cities, having entered over 30 cities and opened 88 shopping centers by the end of 2023 [30]. - The company plans to open 14 new shopping centers in 2024, with a total expected area of 951,000 square meters [33].

2024 年 9 月 26 日 公司研究 物管基本盘稳健，聚焦主业回笼现金 ——碧桂园服务（6098.HK）跟踪报告 要点 事件：碧桂园服务出售珠海万达 1.49%股权，回笼现金 31.4 亿元。 9 月 25 日，碧桂园服务发布公告，出售珠海万达 1.49%股权（107,945,650 股）， 对价约为人民币 31.4 亿元（股份于 2021 年 7 月购入，初始购买价为 26.8 亿元）， 出售完成后，碧桂园服务仍持有珠海万达 0.31%的股份（22,109,350 股）。 碧桂园服务 2024 年上半年实现收入 210.5 亿元，同比增长 1.5%，毛利 44.5 亿 元，同比减少 13.7%，归母净利润 14.4 亿元，同比减少 38.7%，剔除商誉减值、 收并购带来的客户关系摊销等影响后的核心归母净利润 18.4 亿元，同比减少 31.7%，经营活动产生现金流净额 2.7 亿元，同比下降 87.7%。 点评：项目储备丰富，物管基本盘稳健，现金流有待改善，关注应收款收缴。 1）聚焦核心业务，经营深度调整。2024H1 公司物业管理/非业主增值/三供一 业/社区增值/城市服务/商业运营分别实现收入 12 ...

朝云集团 [Table_StockNameRptType] （6601.HK） 首次覆盖 家居护理基石稳固，宠物线下实体门店服务业 态助力高增长，高股息率保障股东权益 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO, with a target price raised to $7.0, representing a potential upside of 24% [2][5][12]. Core Insights - NIO is expected to achieve sales of 230,000 electric vehicles this year, driven by the delivery of high-margin "7778" models and the introduction of new sub-brands and models [2][3]. - The company anticipates significant growth in total vehicle sales due to the upcoming launch of the L60 model and other new models, which will enhance its product matrix and pricing coverage [2][3]. - NIO's gross margin improved to 12.2% in Q2 2024, exceeding previous expectations, and is projected to reach 15% in Q4 2024 [2][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 49,269 million in 2022 to RMB 133,560 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36% [4][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 10.4% in 2022 to 14.4% in 2026, reflecting ongoing cost optimization [4][10]. - The net loss is projected to decrease from RMB 14,559 million in 2022 to RMB 8,036 million by 2026, indicating a trend towards improved profitability [4][10]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning a sales multiple of 1.2x for automotive sales and 3.8x for other sales, leading to a target price of $7.0 for NIO's U.S. shares [3][12]. - The target price corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio of 1.4x for 2024 and 0.9x for 2025, suggesting an attractive valuation [2][3]. Sales and Performance Metrics - In Q2 2024, NIO reported revenue of RMB 17,446 million, a 99% year-over-year increase, with a gross profit of RMB 1,689 million, reflecting a gross margin of 9.7% [9][10]. - Vehicle sales reached 57,373 units in Q2 2024, marking a 144% increase compared to the same quarter last year [9][10].