青岛银行 20260304 2026 年全年贷款增量预算大致是多少？对公与零售的结构规划如何？ 2026 年全年贷款增量预算至少不低于 2025 年，预计增量规模约 500 亿–600 亿元。结构上，结合当前市场态势及同业情况，2026 年将以对公贷款为主， 零售端保持相对稳定的投放节奏与规模水平。 近期存款"脱媒/搬家"现象在本行体感如何？存款到期后的留存与去向有哪些 特征？2026 年存款增长节奏与压力点主要体现在哪些方面？ 对存款脱媒或向非银转移的体感并不明显。对于长期定期存款到期后的留存率， 观察到约在七成左右；其余部分也未见明显集中流向非银，更偏向在银行体系 内转向同业或银行理财等财富管理产品。出现上述特征的原因在于，这批定期 存款的主要客户群体风险偏好相对较低，部分来源于厅堂转化的中老年客群， 资产配置更偏保守，即便权益或理财存在机会，也未观察到显著的集中迁移。 2026 年开年以来，零售端存款增长总体按计划推进，与以往差异不大；公司 端存款存在一定压力，但按照以往节奏，一季度通常为相对低位阶段，后续有 望逐步发力，全年存款目标完成仍有信心。 摘要 2026 年贷款增量预算 500-600 亿元， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report forecasts a social financing growth rate of 8.1% for February 2026, with a total social financing increment of 2.1 trillion CNY, which is a year-on-year decrease of 0.1 trillion CNY [4][7]. - It is expected that the total outstanding social financing will reach 451.1 trillion CNY by the end of February, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 8.1% and a month-on-month decline of 0.07 percentage points [4][7]. - The report highlights that credit growth is anticipated to be lower year-on-year due to the impact of the Spring Festival, with corporate credit demand expected to remain flat and retail loans likely to decrease year-on-year [4][7]. Summary by Sections Social Financing Estimates - The estimated social financing stock for February 2026 is 451.1 trillion CNY, up from 449.1 trillion CNY in January 2026 and 417.3 trillion CNY in February 2025, showing a month-on-month increase of 2.0% and a year-on-year increase of 33.8% [7]. - The report predicts a decrease in new RMB loans for February 2026, estimating an increment of 0.5 trillion CNY, which is a year-on-year decrease of 0.1 trillion CNY [4][7]. Credit and Bond Financing - The report anticipates a decrease in government and credit bond net financing for February, with government bonds expected to net finance 1.4 trillion CNY, down 0.3 trillion CNY year-on-year [4][7]. - The report also notes that the demand for bank bills is expected to remain strong, with a decrease of 1,000 billion CNY in discounted bank acceptance bills, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2,000 billion CNY [4][7]. Monetary Growth - The report emphasizes the importance of M2 growth, which is expected to remain high at around 9.0% in February, supported by strong government bond financing and improved corporate cash flow [4][7]. - M1 growth is projected to rise to approximately 5.1%, influenced by a low base effect and the reduced impact of deposit migration [4][7].

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年2月28日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 青島銀行股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年3月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 03866 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 2,291,945,474 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 2,291,945,474 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 2,291,945,474 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 2,291,945,474 | | 2. 股 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 跨境流动性跟踪 20260301 汇率政策组合拳如何影响流动性？ [Table_Summary] [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-03-02 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 03/25 05/25 07/25 10/25 12/25 02/26 银行 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 | | 021-38003646 | | nijun@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 林虎 | | SAC 执证号：S0260525040004 | | SFC CE No. BWK411 | | 021-38003643 | | gflinhu@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 | | 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | 银行行业 ...

[Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行行业 月末票据利率反弹，大行净买入同比增量回落 ——银行资负跟踪 20260302 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-03-02 | [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 021-38003646 nijun@gf.com.cn 分析师： 林虎 SAC 执证号：S0260525040004 SFC CE No. BWK411 021-38003643 gflinhu@gf.com.cn -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 03/25 05/25 07/25 10/25 12/25 02/26 银行 沪深300 请注意，倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | 银行行业:银行 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创金融红利资产月报（2026 年 2 月） 4Q25 商业银行业绩增速回正，险资权益配置 推荐（维持） 维持历史高位 银行 2026 年 03 月 01 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：林宛慧 邮箱：linwanhui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524110001 证券分析师：陈海椰 邮箱：chenhaiye@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525070004 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 42 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 141,801.93 | 10.91 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 95,189.42 | 9.07 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 0.4% | -7.5% | 4.3% | | 相对表现 | 0.3% | -14.9% ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨银行 [Table_Title] 一季报开启营收增速回升周期 ——银行业周度追踪 2026 年第 8 周 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 春节后第一周银行股继续受到市场风险偏好上升的影响造成调整。个股层面，基本面预期持续 上行的 H 股外资银行上涨，A 股多数银行下跌，前期涨幅较高的青岛银行 H 股领跌。受中东地 缘冲突事件影响，市场风险偏好可能迎来大幅波动，银行股去年下半年以来估值调整充分，基 本面业绩增速平稳、息差等经营压力改善，PB-ROE 角度明显低估，建议重视防御配置价值。 继续重点推荐优质城商行，杭州银行/南京银行/厦门银行/江苏银行/青岛银行/齐鲁银行/苏州银 行/宁波银行等，同时建议关注低估值、高股息、基本面改善、可转债转股空间较大的兴业银行。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 1 [Table_Title 一季报开启营收增速回升周期 2] ——银行业周度追踪 2026 年第 8 周 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% % ...

行业周报 | 非银金融 外资机构座谈会召开，坚定金融市场改革决心 金融行业周报（2026/03/01） 核心结论 金融行业周涨跌幅跟踪：1）本周非银金融（申万）指数涨跌幅为-1.18%， 跑输沪深 300 指数 2.26pct。本周证券Ⅱ（申万）、保险Ⅱ（申万）、多元金 融指数涨跌幅分别为-0.39%、-3.74%、+3.90%。2）本周银行（申万）涨跌 幅为-0.92%，跑输沪深 300 指数 2.00pct。其中，国有行、股份行、城商行、 农商行本周涨跌幅分别为-1.67%、-0.57%、-0.70%、-0.72%。 投资观点：1）保险：本周保险Ⅱ(申万)涨跌幅为-3.74%，跑输沪深 300 指 数 4.82pct。本周保险板块深度调整，主要受前期获利了结、资金向成长赛 道迁移、政策财报真空期及海外 AI 负面报告情绪扰动影响。中期来看，保 险机构 2026 年增配权益趋势明确，为板块提供支撑，本次回调属短期交易 与情绪冲击。展望 2026 年，负债端居民"挪储"与分红险、银保渠道发力， 资产端险资持续入市提升贝塔属性，成本端负债成本改善，叠加经济复苏、 低估值高股息优势，板块估值修复动力充足，有望迎来 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 银行 银行 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 27 日 银行重启业绩增长周期 ——银行业周报 20260228 投资要点 ❑ 票据利率攀升，2 月信贷或好于预期。 ❑ 本周银行板块和个股表现 （1）银行板块调整。本周万得全 A 指数上涨 2.75%，银行指数（申万）下跌 0.92%，位居 31 个申万一级行业第 27 位。银行板块调整，判断主要是部分获利 资金切换到钢铁、有色等目前受政策、地缘政治催化更强的板块。 （2）国有行跌幅更大。根据申万二级行业分类，本周国有行、股份行、城商 行、农商行板块分别-1.67%、-0.57%、-0.70%、-0.72%。个股方面，涨幅前三的 银行分别是兰州银行（+1.75%）、郑州银行（+1.05%）、青农银行（+0.96%）；跌 幅前三的银行分别是重庆银行（-4.11%）、上海银行（-2.91%）、青岛银行（- 2.76%）。 ❑ 本周行业及个股事件 行业层面：①政治局会议召开，讨论"十五五"规划纲要。会议强调，要继续实 施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，强化改革举措与宏观政策协同。 持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The banking industry has shown a recovery in profit growth, with net profit for commercial banks increasing by 2.33% year-on-year in 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 2.35 percentage points [13][14] - The overall asset growth of commercial banks continued, with total assets increasing by 9.01% year-on-year as of Q4 2025, while loan growth slightly decreased to 7.26% year-on-year [29][30] - Net interest margin stabilized for two consecutive quarters at 1.42%, with expectations for a gradual recovery in 2026 [54] Summary by Sections Performance - The net profit of commercial banks increased by 2.33% year-on-year in 2025, with state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks showing growth rates of 2.25%, -2.84%, 12.87%, and 4.57% respectively [13][14] - The return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) for commercial banks were 7.78% and 0.60%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 0.33 percentage points and 0.03 percentage points respectively [13] Scale - Total assets of commercial banks grew by 9.01% year-on-year as of Q4 2025, with state-owned banks showing a growth rate of 10.78% [29][30] - Loan growth for commercial banks was 7.26% year-on-year, with city commercial banks experiencing a counter-cyclical increase in loan growth [29][30] Interest Margin - The net interest margin for commercial banks was stable at 1.42%, with a year-on-year decline of 10.50 basis points [54] - Expectations for 2026 indicate potential downward pressure on net interest margins in Q1, but a gradual recovery is anticipated thereafter [54] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio for commercial banks was 1.50%, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.00 basis points, while the provision coverage ratio was 205.21% [54] Capital - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks was 10.92%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.05 percentage points [54]