证券研究报告·行业点评报告·机械设备 机械设备行业点评报告 西门子海南总装基地落地，协同国产零部件 扩产缓解燃机交付压力 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 投资建议： 推荐高额燃机订单持续落地【杰瑞股份】、聚焦高技术壁垒透平叶片 国产替代【应流股份】、燃机缸体与环类主力供应商【豪迈科技】、卡特 彼勒供应商【联德股份】。 ◼ 风险提示： AI 投资不及预期、国际贸易摩擦、国产替代不及预期。 ◼ 事件：西门子新基地落地海南，完善燃机一体化流程 2025/12/18 官方公众号公布西门子能源在儋州设立海南公司，公司预 计于 2027 年实现其首个中国燃机总装基地及服务中心建成投运，形成覆 盖总装、应用验证、备件、运维的一体化体系，完善公司全球燃机布局。 海南自贸港全岛封关落地，通关及贸易投资便利度显著提升，具备为高端 装备制造、工程建设提供稳定环境的条件。西门子新基地将支撑海南清洁 能源岛建设，并依托本土供应链与制造能力，在燃机领域缩短交付周期、 提升项目效率，抬升海南全球能源产业链地位。 ◼ 燃机龙头产能饱和，总装&零部件扩产有望缓解交付瓶颈 燃气轮机行业核心利润 ...

关于报告的所有内容，请于公众『市场分析报告』阅读原文 《2026年将是电力的超级周期，锂电储能+新能源+电气设备，最正宗的11家公司》 当前，全球能源市场正处在一次深刻的结构性变革之中。人工智能（AI）算力需求的爆发式增长，以及随之而来 的数据中心建设浪潮，正在将电力消耗推向新的历史高点。国内外企业争相投入，带动了从发电设备、储能系统 到电网升级等整个电力产业链的投资持续扩大。另外可再生能源系统在经济性上已具备强大竞争力，储能设施与 风电、光伏的新增装机容量正共同步入一轮新的快速增长期。 中国的电力设备制造业凭借快速响应能力，正积极满足全球激增的需求，变压器、开关、电缆等关键产品的出口 额增长显著。本文围绕这场由多重动力驱动的"电力超级周期"，以"AI需求引领、电力系统升级、中国制造出 海"为核心脉络，系统梳理2026年的关键投资机会与产业链上的核心公司，旨在帮助投资者聚焦核心赛道，把握 实实在在的产业增长红利。 一、AI浪潮如何引爆全球电力新周期 人工智能的训练与日常应用，催生了数据中心建设的爆发，这使得电力消耗成为影响产业发展的最关键变量。以 美国市场为例，预计2025至2027年，专为AI服务的新增数据 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月15日 制造成长周报（第 38 期） 优于大市 智元第 5000 台机器人正式下线，GEV 再度上修燃机订单指引 与扩产规划 重点事件点评&重点关注：人形机器人、AI 基建 事件 1-智元第 5000 台通用具身机器人正式下线：2025 年 12 月 8 日，智 元机器人累计下线通用具身机器人 5000 台。 事件 2-GEV 上修燃机订单指引与扩产规划：2025 年 12 月9 日，GEV 召开 2025 年投资者大会，公司预计 2025 年底积压订单+预留协议将达到 80W，同时宣 布 2026 年中产能达 20GW，2028 年产能扩充至 24GW。 人形机器人点评：智元机器人第 5000 台通用具身机器人下线表明产业量产 不断推进，规模量产将加速到来。我们持续看好人形机器人的长期投资机会， 建议从价值量和卡位上把握空间&确定性，从股票弹性上寻找增量环节。1） 确定性：特斯拉产业链核心供应商或者实力强、卡位好的公司，重点关注【飞 荣达】【龙溪股份】【唯万密封】【恒立液压】【汇川技术】【绿的谐波】 【蓝思科技】【五洲新春】；2）弹性：重视基本结构研究逐步拓展至完整 功能结 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月15日 制造成长周报（第 38 期） 优于大市 智元第 5000 台机器人正式下线，GEV 再度上修燃机订单指引 与扩产规划 重点事件点评&重点关注：人形机器人、AI 基建 事件 1-智元第 5000 台通用具身机器人正式下线：2025 年 12 月 8 日，智 元机器人累计下线通用具身机器人 5000 台。 事件 2-GEV 上修燃机订单指引与扩产规划：2025 年 12 月9 日，GEV 召开 2025 年投资者大会，公司预计 2025 年底积压订单+预留协议将达到 80W，同时宣 布 2026 年中产能达 20GW，2028 年产能扩充至 24GW。 人形机器人点评：智元机器人第 5000 台通用具身机器人下线表明产业量产 不断推进，规模量产将加速到来。我们持续看好人形机器人的长期投资机会， 建议从价值量和卡位上把握空间&确定性，从股票弹性上寻找增量环节。1） 确定性：特斯拉产业链核心供应商或者实力强、卡位好的公司，重点关注【飞 荣达】【龙溪股份】【唯万密封】【恒立液压】【汇川技术】【绿的谐波】 【蓝思科技】【五洲新春】；2）弹性：重视基本结构研究逐步拓展至完整 功能结 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月15日 制造成长周报（第 38 期） 优于大市 智元第 5000 台机器人正式下线，GEV 再度上修燃机订单指引 与扩产规划 重点事件点评&重点关注：人形机器人、AI 基建 事件 1-智元第 5000 台通用具身机器人正式下线：2025 年 12 月 8 日，智 元机器人累计下线通用具身机器人 5000 台。 事件 2-GEV 上修燃机订单指引与扩产规划：2025 年 12 月9 日，GEV 召开 2025 年投资者大会，公司预计 2025 年底积压订单+预留协议将达到 80W，同时宣 布 2026 年中产能达 20GW，2028 年产能扩充至 24GW。 人形机器人点评：智元机器人第 5000 台通用具身机器人下线表明产业量产 不断推进，规模量产将加速到来。我们持续看好人形机器人的长期投资机会， 建议从价值量和卡位上把握空间&确定性，从股票弹性上寻找增量环节。1） 确定性：特斯拉产业链核心供应商或者实力强、卡位好的公司，重点关注【飞 荣达】【龙溪股份】【唯万密封】【恒立液压】【汇川技术】【绿的谐波】 【蓝思科技】【五洲新春】；2）弹性：重视基本结构研究逐步拓展至完整 功能结 ...

Core Viewpoint - GEV and Siemens have reported significant growth in new gas turbine orders, indicating a strong demand in the gas turbine market, driven by the increasing electricity needs from AI data centers [2][3]. Group 1: Order Growth - GEV signed 114 new gas turbine orders in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 46%, with heavy-duty gas turbine orders reaching 69 units, up 57% [2][3]. - Siemens' gas service business secured new orders worth €18.2 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting a 42% year-on-year growth, with Q3 orders for gas turbines soaring by 231% to 86 units [2]. Group 2: Capacity Expansion and Financial Guidance - GEV has advanced its annual gas turbine production capacity target from Q3 2026 to H1 2026 and plans to increase its production capacity to 24 GW by 2028, supported by a projected capital expenditure of $10 billion from 2025 to 2028 [3]. - GEV has raised its revenue guidance for 2028 from $45 billion to $52 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin increase from 14% to 20% [3]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - The construction of AI data centers is driving a surge in electricity demand, with gas turbines being positioned as the optimal power supply solution due to their quick construction cycles and stable power output [4]. - There is significant potential for domestic equipment manufacturers to replace foreign brands in the gas turbine market, with several companies identified as key players benefiting from this trend [4][5]. Group 4: Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Jerry Holdings (002353.SZ) for its strong order book and partnerships with major players [5]. - Yingliu Technology (603308.SH) focusing on high-tech turbine blades for domestic replacement [5]. - Haomai Technology (002595.SZ) as a main supplier of gas turbine components [5]. - Liande Co., Ltd. (605060.SH) as a supplier for Caterpillar gas turbines [5].

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges and opportunities in the U.S. power supply, particularly in the context of AI and energy demands, highlighting the "impossible triangle" of energy policy, economic growth, and AI needs [5][6]. Group 1: Energy Supply Challenges - The U.S. power grid is aging, with an average establishment time of over 40 years, leading to structural issues and a mismatch between supply and demand [5]. - The Biden administration's goal to eliminate 100GW of fossil fuel power generation by 2030 is threatened by the sudden surge in AI energy demands, creating a dilemma for energy policy [5]. - The U.S. power system lacks the capability for large-scale inter-regional energy distribution, unlike China's "West-to-East Power Transmission" [5]. Group 2: AI Power Export Opportunities - The article outlines three main directions for AI power export to North America by 2026: power sources (gas turbines, SOFC), power grid equipment (transformers, large-scale storage), and energy-saving technologies for data centers (SST) [6][19]. - The demand for gas turbines is expected to grow significantly, with an average annual demand of 80-110GW projected from 2026 to 2030, driven by the need for stable and green energy sources [8][9]. Group 3: Gas Turbine Market Dynamics - The supply side of the gas turbine market faces challenges due to complex production processes and a shortage of skilled labor, with an average training period of 1-2 years for workers [8]. - Major gas turbine manufacturers like Siemens Energy, GE, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries dominate the market, leading to a tight supply situation with orders extending to 2028-2029 [9][10]. Group 4: SOFC and Energy Storage - The demand for SOFC is expected to reach 1.5-2GW by 2026, with a growth rate of over 30-50% annually, driven by major tech companies' procurement needs [14]. - The large-scale storage market in North America is projected to see demand exceed 70-80GWh by 2026, supported by favorable economic returns and declining system costs [17]. Group 5: Data Center Energy Efficiency - SST technology is anticipated to significantly reduce energy consumption and space requirements for data centers, with a projected market space of $25-35 billion by 2027 [19]. - The SST market is expected to see a penetration rate of 15-20% by 2027, with major players including Eaton and emerging domestic manufacturers [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The SW Machinery Equipment Index increased by 1.38% in the last week, ranking 4th among 31 primary industry categories, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.08% [11] - Year-to-date, the SW Machinery Equipment Index has risen by 35.94%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which increased by 16.42% [15] Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index has shown strong performance, ranking 4th among industry categories for the week and 6th year-to-date [11][15] Key Insights - Tractor exports in October saw a significant increase of 54% compared to the previous months, indicating a positive outlook for 2026 [20] - The Middle East is accelerating its natural gas investments, with a projected 97% increase in capital expenditure from 2023-2024 compared to the average from 2014-2022 [22] - GEV has raised its gas turbine production target, indicating a robust demand for turbine blades, with a focus on domestic leader Yingliu [22] - The nuclear fusion sector is entering a new phase with multiple bids expected to be awarded soon, signaling a potential increase in orders for leading supply chain companies [22] Sector Performance Indicators - General Machinery: Continues to face pressure with a PMI of 49.2% [21] - Engineering Machinery: Shows signs of upward momentum with excavator sales increasing by 7.8% year-on-year [30] - Railway Equipment: Maintains steady growth with fixed asset investment around 6% [39] - Shipbuilding: Experiences a slowdown in price decline, indicating stabilization [42] - Oilfield Equipment: Bottoming out with stable demand in the Middle East [44] - Industrial Gases: Demand expected to rise as raw material prices decrease [50] - Gas Turbines: Strong growth with GEV reporting a 39% increase in new orders [51]

全球燃气轮机市场规模预计从2024年的239.6亿美元增长至2032年的347.5亿美元，数据中心电力需求上 升成为重要驱动因素。燃机巨头GEV积压订单+预留协议从25Q1的50GW增长至25Q3的62GW，预计25 年底将达70GW；公司2026Q3产能将达20GW，新接订单排产至29年之后。东北证券指出，人工智能数 据中心IT能耗快速增长，对稳定、大功率、环保的供电系统提出更高要求，燃气轮机因其供电稳定性 强，有望在数据中心建设中迎来增量需求。 2025全球智能机械与电子产品博览会在澳门、珠海举行。2025全球智能机械与电子产品博览会开幕式4 日在澳门金光会展中心举行。博览会以"湾区智造 全球共享"为主题，于澳门与珠海两地同步举行，共 有海内外千余家企业参展，涵盖多场配套活动。澳门展区聚焦智能电子，设有智能通信与物联网馆、智 能视听与元宇宙馆以及创投新概念与国际馆；珠海展区聚焦智能机械，包括智能装备与工业互联网馆、 智能交通与未来出行馆以及智能家居与健康科技馆。 海外消息，特斯拉Optimus人形机器人近日在实验室实现流畅奔跑，视频显示其奔跑速度达2.5-3米/秒， 接近人类慢跑水平，步态自然且具备良好的 ...

Group 1 - Middle Eastern countries are accelerating their natural gas industry layout, with Saudi Arabia and Qatar planning to increase production by 60% and 44% respectively by 2030, while large gas field developments continue to advance [1] - The natural gas industry in the Middle East has significant development potential, with 80% of supply directed towards regional economic demand and 20% for net exports, primarily in the form of Qatar's LNG exports [1] - The demand for natural gas in the Middle East is expected to rise due to large-scale economic growth plans and infrastructure investments, with core countries projected to maintain economic growth above 3% in the coming years [1] Group 2 - The natural gas industry encompasses the entire process from extraction to application, involving EPC engineering projects and the use of various equipment such as compressors, valves, cryogenic equipment, and gas turbines [2] - The Middle East and North Africa's oil and gas projects are projected to reach $101.2 billion in contracts in 2024, a 112% increase from 2022, with Chinese enterprises expected to see a 116.7% year-on-year increase in project contracting [2] - The demand for natural gas compressors is anticipated to remain high due to the expansion of natural gas extraction in the Middle East, with specific types of compressors required for different stages of the process [2] Group 3 - Companies to watch include Jereh Group, Zhongtai Co., and Yingliu Co. [3]