www.ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 2026 年 2 月 联络人 作者 企业评级部 蒋 螣 027-87339288 tjiang@ccxi.com.cn 刘旭冉 027-87339288 xrliu@ccxi.com.cn 黎小琳 027-87339288 xlli@ccxi.com.cn | 目录 | | | --- | --- | | 摘要 | 1 | | 分析思路 | 2 | | 行业基本面 | 2 | | 样本企业表现 | 8 | | 结论 | 12 | | 附表 | 13 | 贺文俊 027-87339288 wjhe@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 行业展望 房地产行业 中国房地产行业展望，2026 年 2 月 2025 年房地产行业政策力度同比减弱，但全年销售规模降幅收窄， 去库存亦取得一定进展，在商品房销售额尚未完全企稳的背景下， 供求平衡的修复仍面临挑战；2026 年预计行业销售及投资下行压力 仍存但节奏放缓，政策端或将进入常态化实施阶段，待售面积有望 出现拐点性下降，为"十五五"房地产市场触底企稳打下基础，预 计未来短期内头部房企的市场地位稳固，但行业颈部及腰部企业的 排序或 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate industry is undergoing a profound restructuring of its valuation system, where "certainty" has replaced "growth" as the primary valuation metric, emphasizing timely delivery, stable quality, and sustainable service [1][14]. Market Differentiation: Certainty as the Only Hard Currency - In 2025, the differentiation in the Xi'an real estate market is unprecedented, with some projects struggling to attract buyers despite price cuts, while others sell out at listed prices [3]. - The success of China Merchants Shekou in Xi'an is attributed to its transition from "uncertainty" to "certainty," characterized by four dimensions: delivery certainty, quality certainty, price certainty, and service certainty [3][4]. Delivery Certainty - China Merchants Shekou has achieved an average delivery ahead of schedule by 3-6 months, with a delivery satisfaction rate of 98%, positioning itself in a new market segment where timely delivery is critical [3]. Quality Certainty - The quality of delivery remains consistently high across various aspects, ensuring that the actual product matches the demonstration units seen by potential buyers [3]. Price Certainty - The company maintains transparent pricing with a one-price policy, avoiding tactics like low initial pricing or commission incentives, which helps sustain higher market value for its properties [3]. Service Certainty - The ongoing operation of the "Zhaolinh U Community" ensures that the service quality received by homeowners aligns closely with the standards promised at the time of signing [4]. Systematic Capability Over Single Product Success - The sales success of China Merchants Shekou in Xi'an is not due to a single project but rather a systematic capability that spans multiple projects, price ranges, and customer segments [7][9]. - The company has demonstrated its ability to deliver products and services that meet or exceed expectations across various market conditions [9]. Second-Hand Premium: Value Closure - The true test of product strength lies in the second-hand market, where properties from China Merchants Shekou have consistently sold for over 15% more than competing products, indicating sustained value [11]. - The brand's long-standing reputation and consistent quality ensure that properties continue to appreciate over time, maintaining their competitive edge [12]. Conclusion: The Value of Certainty - The consensus among Xi'an homebuyers is that "not buying from China Merchants is not an option," reflecting a collective vote for certainty in the market [14]. - The company's 154-year history and extensive experience in Xi'an have established a strong foundation of trust, making certainty the most valuable resource in the current real estate landscape [15].

转自：推广 西安从来不缺房子，缺的是值得珍藏的作品。 当高周转成为行业惯性，当"复制粘贴"成为多数房企的效率法则，招商蛇口西安却用12年、22部作品，走出了一条截然相反的路——不复制、只定制，永远 在创新，永远在迭代。这不是营销话术，而是刻在这家企业基因里的产品信仰。 图片来源：招商蛇口 每一块土地都有自己的使命 2014年，招商蛇口首入西安。彼时行业盛行"产品线"打法，一个爆款户型全国通用，一张图纸飞遍大江南北。招商蛇口西安却选择了更笨的方式：读懂每一 块土地。 在曲江，它读懂盛唐的气韵与低密的矜贵；在高新，它回应科创精英的效率与审美；在浐灞，它预判滨水生活的未来；在奥体，它捕捉城市新中心的澎湃； 在经开，它洞察成熟城区的改善渴求。 22部作品，没有两个完全相同的立面，没有两张复刻的图纸。从建筑语汇到户型逻辑，从园林规制到空间情绪，每一部作品都只为那片土地而生。 这便是招商蛇口西安奉行至今的产品信条——"每一块土地都有自己的使命"。所谓定制，不是标新立异，而是让建筑成为土地最恰当的答案。 图片来源：招商蛇口 永不满足的自我迭代 2.0时代，它开启改善赛道，以精准的产品定位填补市场空白； 3.0时代，它冲击高 ...

Core Insights - The report predicts a "front low and back high" trend for the real estate market in 2026, suggesting potential recovery opportunities in the sector [1][3] - It emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the market through inventory reduction and boosting demand and confidence, while also supporting reasonable financing needs of real estate companies [3][4] - The report identifies three main investment lines: stable companies in core cities, "small but beautiful" firms with significant breakthroughs, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [1][9] Market Outlook - The real estate market is expected to face continued pressure in 2025, with a focus on policy measures to prevent a sharp decline [3][4] - The report forecasts a decline in key real estate indicators for 2026, including a projected 8% decrease in sales area to 810 million square meters and a 12% drop in sales revenue to 7.4 trillion yuan [5][6] - It anticipates a gradual recovery in the market, with potential policy and fundamental turning points in Q1 and Q4 of 2026, respectively [7][8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals in first and second-tier cities, such as China Resources Land and China Merchants Shekou [1][9] - It highlights the potential of Poly Real Estate Group as a "small but beautiful" firm that has made significant sales and land acquisition breakthroughs [9] - The report also points to commercial real estate companies like China Resources Vientiane Life and Swire Properties that are actively exploring new operational models [1][9]

经济观察报 记者 田国宝 过去三年，房地产在需求收缩、融资收紧和风险出清的多重压力下经历了深度调整。 国家统计局数据显示，2025年，全国新建商品房销售面积同比下降8.7%，房地产开发投资降至8.28万亿元，行业规模收缩，但销售、投资和新开工的同比降 幅均较2024年明显收窄，一线城市和部分强二线城市仍保持一定的成交活跃度。 2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年。2025年底召开的中央经济工作会议对2026年重点工作进行部署，其中对房地产的表述为"着力稳定房地产市场"，与2025 年的"持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳"相比，2026年释放出稳定预期的明确信号。 在"稳中求进"的总基调下，房地产不再承担短期刺激经济的角色，而是被纳入中长期结构转型的框架之中。 政策红利 2025年，围绕房地产市场止跌回稳的目标，各类政策持续发力，但政策取向并未转向全面宽松，而是通过结构性工具稳定预期、控制风险。 调控方面，供给端着力消化存量、压缩低效增量；需求端通过金融工具降低购房成本，地方政府在因城施策框架下承担更大调控责任。 在货币政策方面，2025年5月，五年期以上LPR从3.6%下降至3.5%，首套房商业贷款利率可低至3 ...

即将春节，房地产行业的组织架构调整如期而至。 今年1月底，中海集团董事长颜建国宣布，撤销中海地产沿用多年的华东、华南、北部、中西部4大区域 公司，中海地产正式告别"总部-区域-城市"的三级管控模式，未来将进入"总部-城市"的扁平管理时代， 华润置地也在近期宣布再度精简地区公司，从28个压缩至18个。在此次组织架构调整后，华润置地也形 成了"哑铃型"的组织，即"专总部"、"强一线"的模式。事实上，在这两家央企之前，招商蛇口已经先行 一步裁撤所有区域公司，至此，头部央企的极致扁平化组织已经宣告全面成型。 面对新的竞争环境，地产央企也在顺应市场做出改变。此次变动的逻辑是，房地产市场具备布局价值的 城市缩减，过往"摊大饼"式的发展逻辑已经不适应当下，房企采取总部"一盘棋"的投资决策，能够提高 运营和决策的效率。 随着房企纷纷深耕高能级城市，"规模为王"的时代也基本宣告终结。房企也在采取更灵活、敏捷、扁平 的组织，在深耕城市进行规模以外的比拼，例如商业布局，或者其他增量业务。 "扁平"的敏捷组织 在房地产行业的发展史上，区域公司曾经是规模扩张的利器。在行业高速发展之时，房企通常采取总 部-区域-城市的三级管控模式。在这 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The 2026 real estate market is expected to experience a "front low and back high" trend, with two significant turning points anticipated throughout the year [2] - The overall sales volume and price are projected to face pressure in Q1, with potential policy adjustments by the end of Q1 to stabilize the market in Q2 [3][24] - The report emphasizes the need for policy measures to support demand and stabilize investment, particularly focusing on the financial pressures faced by developers [8][19] Sales Forecast - The report forecasts a total sales area of 810 million square meters in 2026, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8% - The average sales price is expected to be 9,144 yuan per square meter, down 4% year-on-year - The total sales amount is projected to be 7.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12% decline compared to the previous year [3][22][21] Development Investment - Real estate development investment is anticipated to reach 6.9 trillion yuan in 2026, a decrease of 16% year-on-year, although the rate of decline is expected to narrow compared to 2025 [4][21] - The report indicates that the decline in new construction area is expected to be 18% year-on-year, with a total of 480 million square meters [4][21] Completion Forecast - The report predicts that the completion area will be 490 million square meters in 2026, down 19% year-on-year, continuing the trend of cyclical contraction [5][21] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the main contradiction in the real estate market has shifted from "shrinking transaction volume" to "continuing price declines," particularly affecting the second-hand housing market [9] - It suggests that the market's recovery will depend on effective policy measures and the stabilization of developer financing [8][19] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines for investment: 1. Developers with stable fundamentals and high market share in first and second-tier cities 2. Smaller developers showing significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition 3. Commercial real estate companies exploring new operational models in the new consumption era [9][21]

岁末年初，头部房企大刀阔斧的组织架构变革几乎已成近几年的惯例，也成为行业观察的重磅看点。 前几天，艳姐刚针对华润置地重构治理结构的战略改革做了深度解读 一方面，确立了三大业务航道，"三条业务曲线"同构成了华润置地"投资-开发-运营"的价值闭环。 另一方面，城市公司再收缩，继华东区域城市公司"6变4"后，华润置地城市公司从两年前的28个，精简为18个。砍掉中间层，一头"专总部"，一头"强一 线"，华润置地标志性的哑铃型组织全面成型！ 战略落地，人事紧随，战鼓已响，强将频动。 近期艳姐了解到，华润山东地区不少战将已集结，既有总部管理人员奔赴一线，也有标杆房企高管重磅加盟。 与此同时，在武汉、西安、南京、福州等核心区域重点城市，华润置地亦同步落子，暗蓄火力。 01 两大清北系战将就位 华润置地补强山东区域 最近，艳姐得到消息，华润置地山东公司的高管阵容中也出现了一个新面孔——前万科北京区域副总经理廖心旷。 消息显示，这位万科"产品大神"，已于今日走马上任，出任山东公司副总经理。 廖心旷2006年自清华大学建筑系本科毕业，随后赴美国密歇根大学深造城市设计，随后以万科新动力身份加盟万科，从操盘北京市场项目干起。 201 ...

Group 1 - The company has released a profit forecast, expecting a year-on-year decline of 69%-75% in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, with the formal report scheduled for the first quarter of 2026 [2] - The board approved a "Valuation Enhancement Plan" on February 6, 2026, focusing on business optimization and risk control to enhance company value [3] - The company announced that from 2026 to 2028, cash dividends will account for no less than 40% of net profit attributable to shareholders, reinforcing investor returns [4] Group 2 - The company regularly publishes sales and land acquisition data, with a signed sales amount of 7.674 billion yuan in January 2026 [5]

Group 1: Macro Insights - January CPI growth rate year-on-year was lower than expected, while PPI growth rate was slightly higher than expected, influenced by the Spring Festival timing and base period rotation [4][5] - The average impact of the base period rotation on CPI and PPI year-on-year indices is estimated to be approximately 0.06 and 0.08 percentage points, respectively, which is relatively small [4][5] - CPI in January increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 0.8%, indicating a mixed inflationary environment influenced by seasonal factors and external inputs [5] Group 2: Real Estate Sector - The traditional residential development sector is contracting, while commercial real estate is entering a policy-driven growth phase, with a focus on creating new consumption scenarios to meet diverse consumer needs [12][13] - The shift from traditional commercial spaces to new consumption scenarios emphasizes emotional engagement and immersive experiences, moving beyond mere transactional spaces [14][20] - The rise of non-standard commercial projects, characterized by innovative space and operational models, is gaining traction, particularly in major cities like Shanghai and Beijing [16][17] Group 3: Chemical Industry - The dye industry is experiencing price increases due to rising costs of intermediate products, with significant price hikes observed in January, benefiting integrated companies with stable market shares [24][25] - The concentration of supply in the dye industry is improving due to stringent safety and environmental regulations, which may lead to a more favorable market environment for leading companies [26][27] Group 4: Electronics Sector - The demand for AI computing materials is expected to rise significantly as cloud service providers increase capital expenditures, leading to a supply-demand mismatch in the electronic fabric market [29][30] - Traditional electronic fabric production is transitioning to low-dielectric materials, with price increases anticipated across both traditional and low-dielectric electronic fabrics due to supply constraints [32][33]