Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, indicating potential investment opportunities in these areas [1]. Core Insights - The 2026 long-term electricity prices are under pressure, with significant declines observed in transaction prices across various provinces, reflecting a shift in the power generation model from reliance on thermal power to a more diversified income structure [6][7]. - Natural gas consumption saw a year-on-year increase of 5.1% in November 2025, indicating a recovery in demand, particularly due to heating needs during the winter season [34]. - The report highlights the importance of optimizing the electricity market mechanism and restructuring the power generation mix as key future trends [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: 2026 Long-term Electricity Prices - The annual transaction results for 2026 show a total transaction volume of 2,724.81 billion kWh in Jiangsu, with a weighted average price of 344.19 yuan/MWh, down 16.55% from the previous year [6][8]. - Similar trends are observed in Guangdong and Anhui, with prices decreasing by 5.03% and 10.09% respectively [6][8]. - The report suggests that coastal provinces will face significant pricing pressure in 2026, as the role of thermal power shifts from being the main energy source to a regulatory support role [7]. 2. Gas: November Natural Gas Consumption - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of natural gas reached 362.8 billion m³, marking a 5.1% increase year-on-year, while the total consumption from January to November was 3,880 billion m³, a slight decline of 0.1% [34]. - The report notes that the increase in consumption is attributed to a low base from the previous year and a recovery in industrial gas demand [34]. - The report also highlights a favorable trend in natural gas pricing, with a decrease in costs due to lower international oil prices and improved supply conditions [36]. 3. Investment Analysis Recommendations - For thermal power, the report recommends companies with integrated coal and power operations, such as Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian, as well as those with significant large unit ratios like Datang Power and Huaneng International [10]. - In the hydropower sector, companies like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power are recommended due to their sufficient capacity and expected improvements in profit margins [10]. - The report suggests focusing on nuclear power companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power, which have stable cost structures and high utilization hours [10]. - For green energy, companies such as Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power are highlighted for their stable returns and increasing operational benefits from environmental value releases [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the expected low temperatures have led to an increase in US gas prices and a rise in European gas prices due to inventory withdrawals [1][9] - It emphasizes the long-term value enhancement of special gas in commercial aerospace [1] Price Tracking - As of January 2, 2026, the week-on-week changes in gas prices are as follows: US HH +20.2%, European TTF +4.2%, East Asia JKM -0.2%, China LNG ex-factory -1.4%, and China LNG CIF +2.3%, with prices at 1, 2.5, 2.5, 2.6, and 2.5 yuan per cubic meter respectively [9][14] Supply and Demand Analysis - Meteorological agencies predict that national temperatures will remain low until January 12, leading to a week-on-week increase of 20.2% in US natural gas market prices. As of December 26, 2025, the storage volume decreased by 38 billion cubic feet to 33,750 billion cubic feet, a year-on-year decline of 1.1% [16] - European gas consumption from January to September 2025 was 313.8 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [18] - Domestic gas prices decreased by 1.4% week-on-week, with apparent consumption in China from January to November 2025 increasing by 1.5% year-on-year to 392 billion cubic meters [24][29] Pricing Progress - From 2022 to 2025, 67% (195 cities) of cities at or above the prefecture level implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an increase of 0.22 yuan per cubic meter [38] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments, recommending companies such as Xinao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy, among others [56] - It also highlights the importance of companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling, recommending Jiufeng Energy and Xinao Shares [56] - The report notes the increasing uncertainty regarding US gas imports and emphasizes the importance of energy self-sufficiency, suggesting attention to companies with gas production capabilities like New Natural Gas and Blue Flame Holdings [56]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [4] Core Insights - The annual negotiated electricity price has been established, leading to a significant drop in trading prices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang for 2026, with a decrease of 16.5% and 16.4% respectively. The new energy price subsidy in January is at a maximum of 6.17 cents per kilowatt-hour [3][13] - The electricity market is undergoing a restructuring with the full entry of new energy sources, which is expected to bring about a new equilibrium in electricity pricing sooner than anticipated [3] - The report highlights the performance of various sectors within the electricity industry, noting a general decline in stock prices for most listed companies in the power and utilities sector [6][63] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The average trading price for electricity in Jiangsu for 2026 is 344.19 yuan per megawatt-hour, down 16.5% year-on-year, while in Zhejiang it is 344.85 yuan per megawatt-hour, also down 16.4% [13] - The total transaction volume in Jiangsu's electricity market for 2026 is 272.481 billion kilowatt-hours, with a weighted average price of 344.19 yuan per megawatt-hour [13] - The report indicates that the electricity prices in 28 regions have been adjusted downwards, with reductions ranging from 0.65% to 24.68% [3][13] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.84 points, up 0.13%, while the CSI 300 Index closed at 4629.94 points, down 0.59%. The CITIC Power and Utilities Index closed at 3042.43 points, down 2.35%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.76 percentage points [6][63] - Most stocks in the power and utilities sector experienced declines, with notable drops in companies such as Guodian Power and Huaneng International [67] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend coal-fired power leaders and companies with stable electricity prices and coal-electric integration, such as Huaneng International, Huadian International, and Guodian Power [3] - It also recommends investing in flexible coal-fired power transformation leaders and companies in the wind and solar sectors, such as Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [3] - For the gas sector, it highlights quality leaders like Chengran and New Hope Energy, which are expected to recover profits while maintaining stable dividends [3]

来源：中国能源网 投资要点 全球天然气市场供需格局重塑，预计2026年起全球LNG产能集中释放，而全球需求增速2025年或放 缓，2026年或略有回升，供需宽松背景下全球天然气价格有望持续下行周期。中石化经研院预测2026年 东北亚LNG现货均价9.5~11.5美元/百万英热，TTF均价8.5~10.5美元/百万英热，下行趋势明显；而美国 受到下游需求和出口增长驱动，预计HH均价小幅上涨至3.4~3.9美元/百万英热。同时原油价格有望延续 下行趋势，EIA预测2026年布伦特原油年平均价格为55美元/桶。 华源证券近日发布燃气行业2026年度投资策略：中石化经研院预测2026年东北亚LNG现货均价9.5~11.5 美元/百万英热，TTF均价8.5~10.5美元/百万英热，下行趋势明显；而美国受到下游需求和出口增长驱 动，预计HH均价小幅上涨至3.4~3.9美元/百万英热。同时原油价格有望延续下行趋势，EIA预测2026年 布伦特原油年平均价格为55美元/桶。 以下为研究报告摘要： 国际油气价格下行趋势有望促进城燃公司成本改善、需求释放。城燃公司气源结构主要来自三桶油、海 外长协及现货等，三桶油方面，低成本国产 ...

以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 华源证券近日发布燃气行业2026年度投资策略：中石化经研院预测2026年东北亚LNG现货均价9.5~11.5 美元/百万英热，TTF均价8.5~10.5美元/百万英热，下行趋势明显；而美国受到下游需求和出口增长驱 动，预计HH均价小幅上涨至3.4~3.9美元/百万英热。同时原油价格有望延续下行趋势，EIA预测2026年 布伦特原油年平均价格为55美元/桶。 全球天然气市场供需格局重塑，预计2026年起全球LNG产能集中释放，而全球需求增速2025年或放 缓，2026年或略有回升，供需宽松背景下全球天然气价格有望持续下行周期。中石化经研院预测2026年 东北亚LNG现货均价9.5~11.5美元/百万英热，TTF均价8.5~10.5美元/百万英热，下行趋势明显；而美国 受到下游需求和出口增长驱动，预计HH均价小幅上涨至3.4~3.9美元/百万英热。同时原油价格有望延续 下行趋势，EIA预测2026年布伦特原油年平均价格为55美元/桶。 国际油气价格下行趋势有望促进城燃公司成本改善、需求释放。城燃公司气源结构主要来自三桶油、海 外长协及现货等，三桶油方面，低成本国产气产量高增、占比提 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the investment strategies and market outlook for 2026, emphasizing a balanced approach between offense and defense, and the importance of fundamental analysis in stock selection [2][3][14]. Investment Performance - In 2025, the overall account achieved a 51% return, with A-shares contributing 55%-60% and Hong Kong stocks 40%-45% of total assets. The A-share portfolio rose by 72%, while the Hong Kong portfolio increased by 28% [2]. Market Outlook for 2026 - The market is expected to experience both opportunities and risks, with significant stock price volatility anticipated. Companies with sustained performance and validated growth logic may face less volatility, while those failing to meet expectations could see larger fluctuations [3]. - The article suggests that sectors like real estate and consumer goods, which underperformed in 2025, may not present significant opportunities in 2026 due to the slow nature of economic cycles [3]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy should focus on fundamental analysis, considering long-term operational barriers, cash flow, growth potential, and dividend policies. Economic cycles will influence company performance and valuation [3]. - The article highlights the importance of asset allocation during economic cycles, recommending inflationary assets while avoiding deflationary ones during the current Kondratiev wave downturn [3]. Sector-Specific Insights - The article discusses successful investments in copper-related companies, with a focus on specific stocks like藏格矿业, which became a major profit source. The outlook for this sector remains positive, though growth may not match the previous year's performance [4]. - Alibaba is noted as a significant holding, with expectations for stable growth in its core business and potential in AI-related sectors. Tencent's position was reduced due to concerns over its growth potential [5]. - Long-term utility stocks like长江电力 and华能水电 are viewed as stabilizers in the portfolio, despite their limited short-term profitability [6]. - The article mentions the potential for recovery in companies like北京首都机场, with expectations for profitability in 2026 [9]. Cash Position and Risk Management - The article suggests increasing cash positions in 2026 to manage potential market volatility, contrasting with the full investment strategy of 2025 [15].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index (HSHYLV.HI) has decreased by 0.26%, with notable stocks such as Shougang Resources up by 0.3% and Yancoal Australia up by 0.1% [1] - The Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) has attracted significant capital, with net inflows exceeding 210 million in the past 5 days, 1.5 billion in the past 20 days, and 3.7 billion in the past 60 days [1] - First Shanghai Securities highlights that the high dividend sector in Hong Kong stocks is worth attention in the current low interest rate environment, with a cumulative net inflow of 1.38 trillion HKD into the Hong Kong Stock Connect since the beginning of 2025, marking a historical high [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) has a mechanism for evaluating excess returns and distributable profits quarterly, which enhances cash yield stability and investor experience [2] - The E Fund Dividend Index series, including the Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545), aims for monthly dividends to meet cash flow needs by assessing distributions quarterly [2] Group 3 - Related products include various ETFs such as the Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF Link A (021457) and E Fund Dividend ETFs, which are designed to provide diversified exposure to dividend-paying stocks [3]

投资评级：看好（维持） 证券研究报告|行业专题报告 燃气Ⅱ 2025年12月31日 阵痛转型步入尾声 业务重构开启新机 --燃气行业2026年度投资策略 证券分析师 姓名：秦雨茁 邮箱：qinyuzhuo@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 投资要点 2 n 全球天然气市场供需格局重塑，预计2026年起全球LNG产能集中释放，而全球需求增速2025年或放缓，2026年或略有回升， 供需宽松背景下全球天然气价格有望持续下行周期。中石化经研院预测2026年东北亚LNG现货均价9.5~11.5美元/百万英热， TTF均价8.5~10.5美元/百万英热，下行趋势明显；而美国受到下游需求和出口增长驱动，预计HH均价小幅上涨至3.4~3.9美 元/百万英热。同时原油价格有望延续下行趋势，EIA预测2026年布伦特原油年平均价格为55美元/桶。 n 国际油气价格下行趋势有望促进城燃公司成本改善、需求释放。城燃公司气源结构主要来自三桶油、海外长协及现货等，三 桶油方面，低成本国产气产量高增、占比提升，同时油价下行有望带动进口管道气成本改善，三桶油成本端全方位改善，面 临海气价格冲击下 ...

Group 1 - Kunlun Energy Co., Ltd. has invested 150 million RMB to establish Kunlun Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., holding 100% ownership [1][2] - The company is classified under the professional technical service industry [1] - Kunlun Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd. was established on December 29, 2025, with a registered capital of 150 million RMB and is located in Yangzhou [2] Group 2 - The company’s legal representative is Fu Honghai [2] - The institute's permitted projects include safety evaluation, inspection and testing services, special equipment inspection, certification services, and various engineering services [2] - Additional services offered include technology development, consulting, carbon reduction technologies, and artificial intelligence public data platform [2]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for various sectors within the energy industry, particularly recommending companies involved in coal power, hydropower, nuclear power, green energy, and gas [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that in November 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 835.6 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. The growth contributions from the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries, as well as residential consumption, were 2%, 49%, 29%, and 19% respectively [4][6]. - The secondary industry remains the largest contributor to electricity consumption, accounting for over 60% of the total, with significant growth in high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors [5][6]. - Natural gas prices have shown fluctuations, with the U.S. Henry Hub spot price at $3.31/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly decline of 7.30%. The report notes that the domestic LNG ex-factory price is 3915 yuan/ton, down 2.85% week-on-week [1][16]. Summary by Sections Electricity Sector - In November 2025, the electricity consumption by the first, second, and third industries grew by 7.9%, 4.4%, and 10.3% respectively, while residential consumption increased by 9.8% [4][6]. - The high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors saw a 6.7% increase in electricity consumption, with automotive manufacturing leading at a 10% growth rate [5][6]. Natural Gas Sector - The report indicates that global gas prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, with the U.S. market showing a significant drop in spot prices. The report anticipates that the demand for natural gas will increase as winter approaches, potentially stabilizing prices [1][16]. - Recommendations include focusing on integrated gas companies and those benefiting from cost reductions and improved profitability due to lower oil prices [39][40]. Investment Recommendations - For coal power, companies like Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian are recommended due to their diversified revenue sources [1]. - Hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation are favored due to expected improvements in profit margins from reduced capital expenditures [1]. - Nuclear power firms like China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are highlighted for their stable cost structures and growth potential [1]. - In the green energy sector, companies like Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power are recommended for their stable returns and increasing operational value [1]. - The report also suggests investment in gas companies like Shenzhen Energy and Kunlun Energy, which are expected to benefit from cost reductions and improved market conditions [1][39].