光伏的逆袭：马斯克的光伏第一性原理 20260126 北美地区光伏市场的资本开支需求如何？ 根据马斯克的表态，北美地区地面光伏的资本开支需求达到 100GW。此外， 从多晶硅还原炉、硅片切割、电池片到组件，整个地面光伏部分的资本开支已 经达到千亿级别。未来几年，这一领域将具有非常充足的业绩弹性。 太空光伏技术的发展前景如何？ 太空光伏技术的发展前景广阔，主要体现在两个方面：一是商业航天不断催化 下，对关键资源争夺的紧迫性；二是算力需求持续爆发以及用电供给瓶颈背景 下，太空和地面的用能需求中，光伏作为度电成本最低的能源形式，是最优解。 根据测算，每瓦算力至少需要配比 1.5~2 瓦的光伏发电能力，以马斯克每年 100GW 太空算力需求为例，对应每年 200GW 太空光伏需求。按当前单瓦价 值量 60 元计算，市场空间超过 12 万亿元。 阿特斯、晶科能源、天合光能和隆基股份等中国企业在美国市场具有竞 争优势，已建立本土化产能和品牌优势，有望充分受益于美国光伏市场 需求爆发。 正泰股份、东方日升、上海港湾和铭扬智能等公司在国内太空光伏建设 中值得关注，它们在技术积累、资源优势及前瞻性投入方面具有优势。 马斯克宣布 ...

【导读】中国信通院总工程师何宝宏：全球太空算力正步入快速布局阶段 中国基金报记者 卢鸰 在商业航天备受市场关注之际，与之相关的太空算力也"火"了。 优势，有望成为支撑AI算力扩展的战略新高地；同时，低轨频谱与轨道资源争夺日趋白热化， 国际竞争窗口期正在快速收窄。 1月26日下午，中国信通院举办了"星算·智联"2026年太空算力研讨会。会议现场座无虚席， 过道上也站了很多人。 据悉，2026年1月9日，美国联邦通信委员会正式批准SpaceX新增7500颗第二代星链卫星的 部署授权，使其全球卫星总数许可上限突破5000颗。 除星链外，亚马逊的"柯伊伯计划"申报的3000多颗卫星也在2025年进入密集发射期。而以 SpaceX、Starcloud、谷歌等为代表的企业，正在加速推进太空算力工程化落地与商业化应 用。 在郭亮看来，当前，我国正处于探索"天数天算"并向"地数天算"过渡的关键阶段，应稳步推 进以"算力上星、智能在轨、天地一体"为核心的太空算力产业发展，打造自主可控、高效协 同、开放共赢的空天地一体化"算力星网"体系。 中国信通院总工程师何宝宏在致辞中表示，在全球范围内，太空算力正步入快速布局阶段， 美国、欧 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策 略 研 究 增量政策聚焦城市更新与新兴科技 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 主题风向标 1 月第 3 期 本报告导读： 热点主题交易热度回落，商业航天、资源品与建材主题领涨，扩内需与科技新动能 是增量政策方向。看好：城市更新/商业航天/国产算力/新型电网。 投资要点： 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.26 | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 苏徽(分析师) | | | 021-38676434 | | | suhui@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880516080006 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 Q4 基金动向：增配 AI 基建与价值股 2026.01.24 主题轮动加快，聚焦国产半导体与电力 2026.01.18 AI 应用：以新生产工具重构新经济场景 2026.01.11 新兴产业空间广阔，看多中国产业龙头 2026.01.06 1 月金股策略：决胜"开门红" 2 ...

Macro Research - The report highlights a "double hit" moment for US dollar assets due to Trump's comments on Greenland and tariff threats, alongside the early dissolution of the Japanese House of Representatives leading to a sell-off in Japanese bonds [3][4][22] - The US dollar's credit breakdown is re-emerging, with significant impacts on US stocks, bonds, and currencies, resulting in a strong performance of safe-haven assets like gold and silver, while cryptocurrencies face pressure [3][4][22] Strategy Research - In Q4 2025, active funds significantly reduced their holdings in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with a focus on increasing allocations to cyclical and financial value stocks, while reducing exposure to technology and healthcare sectors [7][26] - The report indicates a clear rotation in fund styles, with a notable shift towards large-cap cyclical and financial stocks, while growth and consumer sectors saw reductions in allocations [26][27] Fixed Income Research - The appreciation of the RMB and increased foreign exchange settlements may tighten interbank liquidity, depending on whether the central bank will actively increase the supply of base currency [11][14] Industry Research: Photovoltaic Equipment - The report anticipates a new cycle for the photovoltaic equipment industry driven by SpaceX and Tesla's plans to deploy a combined 200GW of solar capacity, with key equipment manufacturers expected to benefit [15][16] - The demand for solar expansion is expected to rise due to the increasing need for low-orbit satellites and the commercialization of space computing, which will drive the demand for core equipment [15][16] Fund Allocation Insights - The report notes a significant increase in allocations to cyclical and financial sectors, particularly in upstream industries like metals and chemicals, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical tensions [27][28] - The technology sector shows a marked divergence, with communication equipment receiving substantial increases due to AI infrastructure investments, while many tech segments faced reductions [27][28]

【电新】 商业航天发展提速，太空光伏迎布局良机 投资建议：商业航天快速发展，太空光伏将充分受益。 太阳能是商业航天中唯一可靠的能源，并且其光照强度约为地面光伏的 5-10 倍，发电量较地面成倍 提升。目前海外如 SpaceX 等企业在火箭发射等方面具备成本优势，催生了低轨卫星互联网等商用场景的发展，未来太空数据中心等商业模式有望得到大力 开发，国内厂商凭借在晶硅和钙钛矿等技术上的成本和技术优势，将在太空数据中心的能源供应中扮演重要角色。 发展契机： 目前砷化镓是太空能源的主流路线，晶硅和钙钛矿技术的成本和效率正不断提升，砷化镓性价比提升空间相对有限。太空数据中心未来的需求潜 力较大，而砷化镓的成本和供给受到一定的约束，企业已开始探索使用晶硅和钙钛矿叠层方案，部分晶硅企业已开始成功出货。 技术路线： 我们认为，如果发展太空数据中心等商业场景，经济性将成为一个重要的因素，钙钛矿和晶硅凭借较好的成本优势有机会取得成功。根据 Starcloud 的白皮书，能源成本是太空数据中心的最大成本变数，根据我们测算，晶硅组件的供应最成熟，在制造成本端有较为明显的优势，而钙钛矿组件由 于质量比功率的优势，能够显著降低发射成本。 ...

报 告 导 读 ： 上周（ 2026/1/19-2026/1/23 ）机械设备指数涨跌幅为 +3.19% 。 SpaceX 与特斯拉三年内规划年化 100GW 太阳能产能，商业航天产业推进会即将召开。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： SpaceX与特斯拉规划部署太阳能产能，光伏产业链迎发展新机遇；报告日期：2026.01.26 报告作者： 肖群稀（分析师），登记编号：S0880522120001 丁嘉一（分析师），登记编号：S0880525080009 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 机器人：特斯拉人形机器人商业化节奏进一步明朗。 马斯克在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛对话中表示，人形机器人 Optimus 目前已在特斯拉工厂执行部分简单 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [4] Core Insights - SpaceX and Tesla plan to deploy an annual solar capacity of 100GW within three years, indicating a significant opportunity for the photovoltaic industry [2][5] - The commercial aerospace industry is advancing, with a high-quality development conference scheduled in Beijing, showcasing the growth and innovation in this sector [5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The mechanical equipment index increased by 3.19% from January 19 to January 23, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which decreased by 0.62% [8] - The mechanical equipment sector ranked 13th among 31 industries in terms of performance during this period [8] Investment Highlights - The report recommends several companies across various sectors, including: - Humanoid Robots: Hengli Hydraulic, Changying Precision, Zhaowei Electric, Donghua Testing - Chip Equipment: Keri Technology - Commercial Aerospace: Plit Technology - AI Infrastructure: Ice Wheel Environment, Hanzhong Precision Machinery - Engineering Machinery: Hengli Hydraulic, SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion [5] Photovoltaic Industry - SpaceX and Tesla's solar manufacturing capacity will focus on space applications, leveraging advantages such as high sunlight exposure and minimal atmospheric attenuation in near-Earth orbit [5] - The report emphasizes the need for advancements in battery efficiency, lightweight materials, and reliability for space photovoltaic applications [5] Commercial Aerospace - The upcoming conference in Beijing will introduce multiple innovative service platforms, indicating a push for enhanced capabilities in research, testing, manufacturing, and support services within the commercial aerospace sector [5] - The report highlights the growth trajectory of the aerospace industry, with significant satellite launches and revenue projections for 2025 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the photovoltaic industry, expecting overall returns to exceed the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [42]. Core Viewpoints - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing favorable developments, particularly in equipment demand. The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, is expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated capacity and shift the industry from price competition to technological competition, promoting high-quality development [4][10]. - Elon Musk announced at the World Economic Forum that SpaceX and Tesla are advancing solar energy production, aiming for an annual capacity of 100GW within three years. The potential for solar energy generation in space is highlighted, as it can receive sunlight continuously and efficiently, opening new demand scenarios for photovoltaic equipment [4][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Viewpoints and Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the photovoltaic industry, driven by policy changes and technological advancements. The cancellation of export VAT rebates is seen as a move to enhance global competitiveness for leading companies with technological advantages [4][10]. Industry Key News - The report notes significant developments in the engineering machinery sector, with a 26% year-on-year increase in import and export trade for engineering machinery in December 2025, amounting to $6.63 billion. Exports alone saw a 27.2% increase [11]. - The report highlights the construction activity in various provinces, with 18 provinces reporting an equipment utilization rate exceeding 50%, indicating robust infrastructure investment across the country [12][14]. Key Company Announcements - The report includes announcements from several companies, such as Shuangliang Energy winning a bid for a significant thermal power project valued at approximately RMB 2.36 billion, which will enhance energy supply and support industrial heating needs in the region [20]. - Other companies, like Nankuang Group and Precision Technology, are also making strides in securing contracts and projecting positive earnings growth for 2025, reflecting a strong demand for their products and services [21][28].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or SpaceX Core Insights - SpaceX is recognized as a leading representative in the commercial space industry, with unique advantages such as vertical integration, cost control, and a supportive government-business collaboration model [2][3][4][5][8][12][29] Summary by Sections SpaceX's Competitive Advantages - SpaceX's vertical integration allows it to produce 85% of its core components in-house, enhancing quality control and reducing costs compared to competitors that rely on outsourcing [3] - The company has pioneered reusable rocket technology, significantly lowering launch costs to $3,000 per kilogram, compared to the global average of $10,000 to $20,000 per kilogram [4] - The Starlink project has created a closed-loop ecosystem, providing continuous demand for rocket launches while generating substantial revenue, with Starlink contributing approximately $4.178 billion to SpaceX's total revenue of around $8 billion in 2023 [5][12] Government Support and Collaboration - SpaceX has received over $15 billion in government contracts from NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense, which have been crucial for its development and financial stability [8][20] - NASA has provided extensive technical support and access to critical data, which has been instrumental in SpaceX's rapid technological advancements [21][22] - The U.S. government has established policies that favor commercial space ventures, allowing SpaceX to operate in a more favorable regulatory environment compared to its competitors [23][29] Financing and Market Position - SpaceX has demonstrated exceptional financing capabilities, raising over $10 billion through various channels, including equity financing and government contracts [12] - The company has a strong user base for Starlink, with over 4 million subscribers, contributing to its cash flow and enabling further technological development [12] - The report highlights the challenges faced by Chinese private space companies in replicating SpaceX's success due to differences in technology, policy environment, and capital market maturity [15][16] Chinese Commercial Space Industry - China's commercial space policies have gradually improved since 2015, but significant barriers remain, particularly in financing and access to critical resources [34][41] - The report notes that while there are over 400 commercial space companies in China, most are private, and many face challenges in rocket manufacturing and deployment [34] - The demand for satellite deployment in China is increasing, with plans to launch over 15,318 satellites by 2027, indicating a growing market potential [36][38]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report "Big Ideas 2026" by ARK Invest identifies thirteen disruptive technology trends that will reshape the global economy over the next five years, emphasizing the deep integration of five major innovation platforms leading to a "Great Acceleration" era [1][24]. Group 2: Technological Convergence Driving Growth - Five major platforms—Artificial Intelligence, Public Blockchains, Robotics, Energy Storage, and Multiomics—are interdependent, creating network effects that enhance their growth. The "Convergence Network Strength" metric is projected to grow by 35% in 2025, indicating significant interaction among these technologies [2][32]. - The macroeconomic impact of this technological fusion is substantial, with autonomous vehicle fleets, next-gen data centers, and AI agents expected to contribute 1.9 percentage points to the annual growth of the U.S. GDP [2][48]. Group 3: AI Infrastructure Investment Surge - Global investment in data center systems is expected to reach $500 billion by 2025, 2.5 times the average from 2012 to 2023, and is projected to grow to $1.4 trillion by 2030 [2]. - Capital expenditures by large enterprises are anticipated to exceed $500 billion in 2026, three times the level before the ChatGPT boom in 2021 [2]. Group 4: AI as a Consumer Operating System - AI is evolving from a tool to a consumer operating system, with natural language-driven interactions becoming the norm. ChatGPT achieved a 25% penetration rate among smartphone users in just two years, compared to seven years for the internet [4]. - By 2030, AI shopping agents are expected to facilitate $8 trillion in online consumption, generating $900 billion in business revenue [4]. Group 5: Bitcoin's Institutional Transformation - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for Bitcoin, transitioning from a speculative asset to a reserve asset, driven by regulatory approvals and institutional adoption [6]. - ARK's valuation model suggests Bitcoin's market cap could reach $16 trillion by 2030, translating to a price of approximately $800,000 per coin [6]. Group 6: Tokenization of Physical Assets - The market for tokenized assets is expected to grow significantly, with stablecoin transaction volumes projected to reach $3.5 trillion monthly by 2025, surpassing traditional payment methods [8]. - By the 2030s, tokenized assets could exceed $11 trillion, representing 1.38% of global financial assets [8]. Group 7: Multiomics and AI in Biology - Multiomics, which integrates various biological data types, is set to revolutionize biology through AI, with costs for whole genome sequencing expected to drop from $1,000 in 2025 to $10 by 2030 [9]. - The FDA's approval rate for AI diagnostic devices is projected to rise from single digits to 30% by 2030, ultimately reaching 100% [9]. Group 8: Reusable Rockets and Space Economy - SpaceX has significantly reduced launch costs, with projections indicating further reductions as reusable rockets become more prevalent [10]. - The satellite communication market is expected to capture 1.2% of global communication spending, with a substantial opportunity for services in remote areas [10]. Group 9: Robotics Evolution - The shift from specialized to general-purpose robots is underway, with significant market opportunities in manufacturing and home services projected to reach $26 trillion [12]. - The "robot as a service" model is expected to lower adoption barriers, allowing users to pay for tasks rather than hardware [12]. Group 10: Distributed Energy and AI - The demand for energy is expected to surge, necessitating a $10 trillion investment in global power infrastructure by 2030 [14]. - The deployment of energy storage solutions must increase by 19 times to meet the needs of AI data centers [14]. Group 11: Autonomous Logistics Transformation - The logistics sector is being reshaped by autonomous delivery systems, with costs for long-distance trucking expected to drop by 60% [15]. - By 2030, revenues from autonomous logistics are projected to reach $480 billion, fundamentally altering e-commerce fulfillment [15]. Group 12: Investment Philosophy - ARK's investment philosophy focuses on identifying critical points of technological convergence that can yield nonlinear returns, emphasizing the importance of companies that effectively integrate these technologies into sustainable business models [17].