证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 买入|维持 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 47.40 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）12.47 | / 12.47 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）591 | / 591 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 58.17 / 35.59 | | 资产负债率(%) | 36.2% | | 市盈率 | 17.32 | | 第一大股东 | 今世缘集团有限公司 | 研究所 今世缘(603369) 业绩符合预期，省内增长势能强劲 l 投资要点 公司 2024 年度实现营业总收入/营业收入/归母净利润/扣非净 利 润 115.46/115.44/34.12/33.8 亿 元 ， 同 比 14.31%/14.32%/8.8%/7.8%。2024 年度，公司毛利率/归母净利率为 74.75%/29.55%，分别同比-3.6/-1.5pct；税金/销售/管理/研发/财 务费用率分别为 14.6%/18.54%/4.02%/0.42%/-1.15%，分别同比- 0.23/-2.23/-0.22/0/0.66pct。2024 年年度实现销 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and maintained [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total operating revenue of 11.546 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.31%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.412 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.8% growth [3] - The company's gross margin is projected to be 74.75%, with a net profit margin of 29.55%, showing a slight decline compared to the previous year [3] - The company aims for a revenue growth of 5%-12% in 2025, with net profit growth slightly lower than revenue growth [10] Company Overview - The latest closing price is 47.40 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 59.1 billion yuan [2] - The company has a total share capital of 1.247 billion shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 36.2% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.32 [2] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported total operating revenue of 1.604 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.56% year-on-year, with a net profit of 326 million yuan, down 34.84% [4] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved total operating revenue of 509.9 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.17% [6] - The company’s revenue from direct sales and wholesale in 2024 was 2.73 billion yuan and 11.205 billion yuan, respectively, showing growth of 20.78% and 14.19% [5] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from different product categories was as follows: Special A+ 749.1 million yuan, Special A 334.7 million yuan, A class 41.9 million yuan, B class 14.2 million yuan, and CD class 7.4 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.17%, 16.61%, 1.95%, -11.09%, and -14.57% respectively [5] - Revenue from various regions in 2024 included: Huai'an 2.235 billion yuan, Nanjing 2.631 billion yuan, and other regions showing strong growth [5] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts operating revenues of 12.704 billion yuan, 13.994 billion yuan, and 16.118 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.696 billion yuan, 4.109 billion yuan, and 4.863 billion yuan [12][10] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.96 yuan, 3.30 yuan, and 3.90 yuan, respectively [12]

2025 年 05 月 06 日 年报季顺利收官，五一白酒需求符合预期 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：肖燕南 S1050123060024 xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：张倩 S1050124070037 zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 食品饮料(申万) | -1.5 | 8.1 | -9.2 | | 沪深 300 | -2.4 | -0.6 | 4.6 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究 1、《食品饮料行业周报：业绩密集 披露期，整体反馈符合预期》2025- 04-28 2、《食品饮料行业周报：社零数据 超预期暨一季度业绩前瞻》2025- 04-21 3、《食品饮料行业点评报告：内需 持续释放，3 月社零数据超预期》 2025-04-18 ▌ 一周新闻速递 行业新闻：1）河南盛林年销售 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the liquor industry, specifically for high-end liquor stocks [6]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a deceleration in revenue growth, but high-end products show resilience, with significant differentiation across segments [1][4]. - In 2024, the high-end liquor segment achieved a revenue growth of 12% and a net profit growth of 11%, indicating strong operational resilience [2]. - The report anticipates a recovery phase in the second half of 2025, driven by policy support and gradual external demand recovery [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The liquor industry saw a revenue growth of 7.7% and a net profit growth of 8.1% in 2024, despite a slowdown in growth rates [10]. - In Q1 2025, the industry reported a revenue increase of 1.8% and a net profit increase of 2.4%, with major companies meeting their initial targets [11]. High-End Liquor Performance - High-end liquor revenue grew by 8% in Q1 2025, with notable contributions from leading brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye [2][31]. - Guizhou Moutai's product matrix has improved, leading to a rise in both volume and price, while Wuliangye has effectively managed inventory and pricing strategies [2]. Mid-Range and Low-End Liquor Performance - The mid-range and low-end segments are experiencing significant differentiation, with regional leaders like Gujing Gongjiu and Jianshe Yuanyuan outperforming national brands [3][31]. - In Q1 2025, mid-range liquor revenue declined by 12%, while low-end liquor saw a similar trend, indicating ongoing pressure in these segments [37]. Financial Metrics - The overall gross margin for the liquor sector was 81.1% in Q1 2025, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year, while net profit margins also showed improvement [22][43]. - The report highlights that high-end liquor companies maintain strong profitability, with Guizhou Moutai achieving a net profit margin of 52.2% in Q1 2025 [44]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the liquor industry is likely to enter a phase of healthy recovery in the latter half of 2025, supported by improved consumer demand and favorable policies [4][12]. - The current valuation of the liquor sector is at a historical low, indicating potential for upward adjustment as market conditions improve [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [6]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the demand for liquor during the May Day holiday met expectations, with the overall performance under pressure. However, the liquor industry is showing signs of bottoming out and improving, with major brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu performing steadily. Local liquor leaders such as Gujinggongjiu and Jianshiyuan are also showing strong momentum. The report highlights a trend of increasing competition, leading to higher expenditure by companies and a slower pace of price upgrades. The overall valuation of the liquor sector is considered low, with many companies engaging in stock buybacks or increasing dividends [4][6]. Summary by Sections Industry News - Henan Shenglin's annual sales of Wuliangye series products exceeded 1 billion yuan - The Luzhou liquor industrial park held an economic analysis meeting - Ten liquor companies in Gansu received geographical indication protection [4][5]. Company News - Moutai plans to optimize its distributor assessment - Wuliangye's "He Mei Global Tour" has commenced - Fenjiu's revenue for 2024 is projected at 36.011 billion yuan [5][15]. Key Company Feedback - The report includes performance forecasts for several companies, with a focus on their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios. For instance, Moutai's EPS is projected to be 75.23 yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 20.56 [7][28]. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector showed a decline of 1.5% over the past month, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index decreased by 2.4% [1][2]. Liquor Sector Recommendations - The report recommends companies with valuation advantages such as Shuijingfang, Shanxi Fenjiu, Shede Liquor, and Jiugui Liquor. For the entire year, it recommends Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Jianshiyuan, Gujinggongjiu, and Yingjia Gongjiu [4][6].

Summary of the White Wine Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The white wine sector experienced slight revenue growth from Q3 2024 to Q1 2025, but excluding leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, the revenue significantly declined, indicating weak seasonal sales and a trend of consumer downgrade [1][3] - The market shows low confidence in future profitability predictions for the white wine industry, with most companies failing to meet profit forecasts. A median decline in annual profits is expected, influenced by seasonal factors and anti-corruption measures [1][5] Key Financial Metrics - The gross profit margin for the white wine sector slightly increased by 0.5 percentage points in 2024, primarily due to a higher proportion of high-margin products rather than a reduction in competition or product upgrades [1][6] - In Q1 2025, the overall profit margin for the white wine industry declined by 9%, a slight improvement from a 12% decline in Q4 2024, reflecting a more volatile profit performance compared to revenue [15] Sales Performance - Q1 2025 sales performance was generally in line with market expectations, with Moutai achieving approximately 11% revenue growth, slightly above the expected 8-10% [2] - The white wine industry is expected to see a year-on-year decline in both sales volume and prices in 2025, with increased competition and rising costs impacting profitability [9] Distributor Dynamics - The number of distributors for most wine companies has increased, with distributors valuing the agency rights for leading brands despite low profit expectations [10] - Distributors are managing cash flow more carefully during industry downturns, utilizing bill acceptance to reduce funding costs [12] Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - Major festive periods like Spring Festival, Mid-Autumn Festival, and National Day account for over 70% of total sales, highlighting the importance of these peak seasons for annual performance [7][8] - The demand during the May Day holiday showed a significant increase in banquet-related sales, with growth rates of 20-30% [20] Investment Insights - The valuation of most white wine companies ranges from 13 to 16 times earnings, with potential for a 50% increase if they reach a valuation of 20 times [23] - Companies like Moutai and Fenjiu are recommended for long-term investment due to their strong brand power and sales performance, despite lower expected returns [25] Dividend and Shareholder Returns - More than half of the 18 major wine companies have a dividend payout ratio exceeding 60%, with Moutai and Wuliangye showing intentions for share buybacks, indicating a positive outlook for shareholder returns [16][27] Future Outlook - The future development of the white wine sector will depend on the fundamental performance of companies and their ability to navigate external uncertainties. Brands with strong fundamentals and high win rates, such as Moutai and Fenjiu, are seen as solid investment choices [25][28]

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The overall trend in the liquor industry is declining, with a two-digit percentage drop observed in April 2025. However, Moutai has shown strong performance amidst this downturn, particularly with its Feitian series maintaining reasonable inventory levels. This indicates effective demand release through price adjustments and marketing strategy changes [11][12][59]. Key Points on Moutai - Moutai is balancing revenue and market prices by adjusting product structure and enhancing channel management. The Feitian Moutai remains stable, while the Rooster Moutai has increased supply quotas and relaxed reporting restrictions for distributors [1][3]. - In 2025, Moutai's distribution channels progressed rapidly, completing approximately 50% of the total Feitian volume from January to April, with a contract plan reaching 48%. This is a 10 percentage point increase compared to the previous year [5]. - Moutai's pricing is expected to fluctuate between 2,100 and 2,200 yuan in the second quarter of 2025, with a low probability of dropping below 2,000 yuan [2][13]. - Moutai has successfully attracted new customer groups, particularly for non-business consumption, which has helped maintain its market position despite overall industry weakness [7][8]. Competitor Analysis - **Wuliangye**: The batch price remains stable at 915-920 yuan, but slow sales due to insufficient market demand have led to significant inventory pressure. The company has committed to not letting distributors incur losses, but the market's trust has diminished [4][21]. - **Guojiao 1573**: The batch price for high-alcohol liquor is 860 yuan and for low-alcohol liquor is 610 yuan. The low-alcohol segment is performing better in the Shandong market, with a strong sales strategy involving annual volume agreements with distributors [22][23]. Market Dynamics - The overall liquor market's shipment pace has increased in 2025, yet prices remain stable due to controlled shipment volumes and effective communication with distributors [6]. - The demand for liquor during the May Day holiday was not ideal, with Moutai's box price ranging from 2,100 to 2,170 yuan, reflecting weak market demand [14][15]. - Predictions for upcoming holidays like Dragon Boat Festival and Mid-Autumn Festival are cautious, with expectations of low gifting demand due to weak business activities [16]. Inventory and Sales Strategies - Moutai's inventory levels are low, typically less than a month for distributors, indicating tight supply management [31]. - Wuliangye's inventory situation is concerning, with many distributors facing financial losses and a lack of trust in the brand leading to slow sales [21][18]. - Guojiao 1573 has a relatively high inventory level, with low-alcohol products dominating the market [22]. Conclusion - The liquor industry is facing significant challenges, with Moutai managing to navigate these through strategic adjustments and effective channel management. Competitors like Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 are struggling with inventory and market trust issues, highlighting the competitive pressures within the industry.

年报中的红利改善方向——多行业联合红利资产 4 月报 20250505 摘要 • 红利及低波动性板块展现防御属性，4 月表现优于主要指数，如 2000 指 数和全 A 指数。石化、家电、食品饮料和交运等一级行业符合股息率改善 且业绩稳健标准，其中石化行业股息率提升幅度最大，但一季度业绩略有 负增长。 • 二级行业中，航运港口、白电、白酒和纺织制造符合股息率改善且绝对水 平在 3%以上，同时一季度业绩稳健增长的标准。三级行业细分领域包括 航运、空调、肉制品、白酒、快递服务、人力资源服务等。 • 公用事业领域中，高速公路和港口分红比例提升，显示长期配置价值。四 川成渝高速公路 A 股股息率达 5.1%，H 股超过 7%。2024 年港口板块业 绩增长最快，预计 2025 年高速公路将呈现回升趋势。 • 重点推荐红利资产包括四川成渝、广通高速、山东高速、宁沪高速和招商 公路，这些公司具备稳定的业绩表现和较高的分红能力。招商港口因海外 资产布局和提高分红比例成为长久期经营资产中的优选。 Q&A 2025 年 4 月份华创红利资产研究中心对红利市场的看法是什么？ 2025 年 4 月份，华创红利资产研究中心对红利市场持 ...

年报季报回顾及五月投资策略 20250505 摘要 • 一季度首旅酒店净利率超预期，黄山旅游客单价恢复，业绩表现较好。黄 金珠宝领域，一口价黄金、直营店及投资类黄金占比高的公司录得双位数 增长，如长荣股份。出海产业链中，绿联科技和安科创新等公司增速超预 期。 • 五一假期数据超预期，酒店行业受益明显，客单价或更高。五月投资策略 建议关注政策利好方向，包括教育体制改革（天利国际控股等）、旅游政 策刺激补贴（首旅酒店等）及新消费方向（焦点科技、老铺黄金等）。 • 2024 年食品饮料板块收入和利润增速放缓，白酒行业二季度增速预计弱 于一季度，结构分化明显。饮料和零食板块表现强势，乳制品有望进入供 需弱平衡阶段，肉制品、餐饮供应链及葡萄酒等子行业表现偏弱。 • 食品饮料投资布局应关注成长性与换季消费机会，聚焦零食及个别食品添 加剂公司（三只松鼠、百龙创园），以及饮料与啤酒领域成长性突出的公 司（东鹏饮料、燕京啤酒）。白酒龙头企业股价调整充分，大幅下跌可能 性较小。 • 美妆板块整体表现优于食品饮料，个护优于医美，医美优于化妆品。国内 品牌替代加速是化妆品行业增长的主要驱动力。家电板块受益于国补政策 和关税影响，业绩 ...

Macro Strategy - The external demand shock on the economy is beginning to manifest, with April manufacturing PMI data showing a month-on-month decline of 1.5 points, significantly exceeding the historical average decline of 0.7 points [1] - The decline in April's manufacturing PMI is the second largest for the same period in the past decade, only behind the declines in 2022 and 2023 [1] Fixed Income - In April 2025, MLF exceeded 500 billion yuan, indicating a loose liquidity stance from the central bank, with monetary policy working in coordination with fiscal policy [3] - The issuance pace of bonds may become a key factor in assessing the monetary easing window, with expectations for a potential reserve requirement ratio cut [3] - The week of April 21-25 saw the issuance of 16 green bonds totaling approximately 36.2 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous week [4] - The same week also saw the issuance of 5 secondary capital bonds totaling 59 billion yuan, with a total trading volume of approximately 136.2 billion yuan [5] Company Analysis Foton Motor (600166) - The Q1 performance exceeded expectations, with a forecasted net profit of 16.66 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a recovery in the heavy truck industry [10] - The company is rated "Buy" due to its low valuation and the industry's potential for recovery [10] KQ Group (873665) - The company reported a revenue of 3.37 billion yuan for 2024, down 3.69% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.62 billion yuan, down 17.50% [11] - The decline in performance is attributed to intensified competition in the photovoltaic industry [11] Shenghui Integration (603163) - The company experienced a significant revenue increase in Q1, supported by a robust order backlog [12] Ganfeng Lithium (002460) - The company adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 8.1 billion yuan, 15.8 billion yuan, and 24.5 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 139%, 95%, and 55% [14] Anker Innovations (300866) - The company maintains a positive outlook with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 24.9 billion yuan and 32.1 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a growth potential despite tariff pressures [15] YTO Group (601038) - The company’s net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is maintained at 10.2 billion yuan, 11.2 billion yuan, and 12.5 billion yuan, reflecting a "Buy" rating [16] Silver Capital (603277) - The company’s net profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been adjusted to 6.45 billion yuan and 7.70 billion yuan, with a new forecast for 2027 at 8.78 billion yuan [16] Hong Kong Stock Exchange (00388.HK) - The exchange reported a record high quarterly performance with revenues of 6.9 billion HKD, a 32% year-on-year increase, driven by improved investment sentiment and increased trading activity [18] Zhongxin Bo (688408) - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 8.3 billion yuan, 10.6 billion yuan, and 12.8 billion yuan, reflecting a growth trajectory [19] Chongqing Beer (600132) - The company forecasts a net profit of 12.66 billion yuan for 2025, with a stable outlook for sales recovery [20] Top Group (601689) - The company reported a Q1 revenue of 57.68 billion yuan, with a net profit of 5.65 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline but maintaining a positive long-term outlook [31]